[Paint Touches] TSW Viewing Guide

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It doesn’t really matter.

How the teams around us on the s-curve do doesn't matter?

[JakeBarnes]

I’ve been following these games since this was first posted and....it seems we can’t catch a break. Frustrating.

Purdue just went down.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Purdue just went down.

Kansas is also down 19 midway through the second.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

How the teams around us on the s-curve do doesn't matter?

MU is either a 3,4 or 5 seed. Where they end up being seeded has much more to do with how the next 2 games and the BET go than the results of teams you expect to be around them on the S curve.

Obviously teams around them losing should help for seeding all things being considered. But MU is fine and stressing the results of other 3-5 seed brethren isn’t overly important to where MU lands seedwise, in my opinion. MU winning or losing their remaining games is going to determine their seed.

Certainly not an attack on you - the guide is a nice resource. I just don’t think, IMO, MU needs to be “catching breaks” for seeding this season like the post I responded to said.   

[MU82]

Purdue just went down.

That's impossible.

How could Purdue miss all of those FTs? How could Edwards play so poorly? Didn't they know what was at stake?

A team with a conference title on the line can't possibly lose to an inferior team!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

MU is either a 3,4 or 5 seed. Where they end up being seeded has much more to do with how the next 2 games and the BET go than the results of teams you expect to be around them on the S curve.

Obviously teams around them losing should help for seeding all things being considered. But MU is fine and stressing the results of other 3-5 seed brethren isn’t overly important to where MU lands seedwise, in my opinion. MU winning or losing their remaining games is going to determine their seed.

Certainly not an attack on you - the guide is a nice resource. I just don’t think, IMO, MU needs to be “catching breaks” for seeding this season like the post I responded to said.   

I just see it differently. If we don't catch breaks, we won't be a 3 seed, regardless of how we do. If we drop a game but catch some breaks we could keep a 4 seed. If we win and catch a ton of breaks we could even sneak into a 2 seed though that may be impossible after tonight.

[We R Final Four]

Purdue just went down.

Things are looking up!

[JakeBarnes]

Kansas loses uglier than we did. Wasnt even close.

[MU82]

Kansas loses uglier than we did. Wasnt even close.

Yeah, another team that must not have known what was on the line. If you're a ranked team and you lose to an unranked team, what a bunch of losers you must be!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Kansas loses uglier than we did. Wasnt even close.

Glad MU cooled on Grimes.

[We R Final Four]

MU is either a 3,4 or 5 seed. Where they end up being seeded has much more to do with how the next 2 games and the BET go than the results of teams you expect to be around them on the S curve.

Obviously teams around them losing should help for seeding all things being considered. But MU is fine and stressing the results of other 3-5 seed brethren isn’t overly important to where MU lands seedwise, in my opinion. MU winning or losing their remaining games is going to determine their seed.

Certainly not an attack on you - the guide is a nice resource. I just don’t think, IMO, MU needs to be “catching breaks” for seeding this season like the post I responded to said.   

So it doesn’t matter or it isn’t overly important? Those are two different positions to take.
Unlike you, I think that there is a large difference between a 3 or a 5 seed.
I Agree, we need to win the games in front of us. However, as TAMU has pointed out, and is recognized elsewhere.......we may need some help from those on the S-curve in front of us to lose. I want those teams to lose, so I’m watching the final scores of the games Tamu provided.
So I guess to me in matters.
You may be one of those guys who turns on selection Sunday as says “if you told me at the start of the season we would be a 5 seed, I’d take it.”
I’m cheering and hoping for a 3 seed so I’m watching.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

So it doesn’t matter or it isn’t overly important? Those are two different positions to take.
Unlike you, I think that there is a large difference between a 3 or a 5 seed.
I Agree, we need to win the games in front of us. However, as TAMU has pointed out, and is recognized elsewhere.......we may need some help from those on the S-curve in front of us to lose. I want those teams to lose, so I’m watching the final scores of the games Tamu provided.
So I guess to me in matters.
You may be one of those guys who turns on selection Sunday as says “if you told me at the start of the season we would be a 5 seed, I’d take it.”
I’m cheering and hoping for a 3 seed so I’m watching.

Lol, Of course I prefer a 3 seed to a 5 seed. That’s not what I am saying.

What I am saying is what really matters is how Marquette plays in their final 5 games.

If they go 5-0, they’re a 3.

If they go 4-1, they have a good shot at a 3 but likely a 4.

If they lose 2 or more, they’re probably a 5. Maybe a small shot at a 4 with a loss tonight and loss against Nova in BET final, but likely s 5.

I just think it’s that simple at this point.

[UWW2MU]

Always open to feedback. I'm having a hard time visualizing what you are saying. Are you suggesting that once the day is over we get rid of the old games and instead condense them into a summary of how the day went?

I didn't have anything specific in mind at the time.  But maybe a strike through on the top line of the game info if it didn't go our way, a special symbol for whether it was a good or bad outcome, or a red/green on the results.

As seen below:


Creighton at Marquette
2:00 PM CT
FS1
Line: MARQ -7.5
Why?: Obviously the most important game being played tomorrow for Marquette’s tournament chances. The Golden Eagles prevailed in overtime on the road and are heavily favored at the Fiserv.
Marquette loses 66-60

Or:

Creighton at Marquette
2:00 PM CT
FS1
Line: MARQ -7.5
Why?: Obviously the most important game being played tomorrow for Marquette’s tournament chances. The Golden Eagles prevailed in overtime on the road and are heavily favored at the Fiserv.
--- Marquette loses 66-60   (vs. +++ if it went our way)

Or:

Creighton at Marquette
2:00 PM CT
FS1
Line: MARQ -7.5
Why?: Obviously the most important game being played tomorrow for Marquette’s tournament chances. The Golden Eagles prevailed in overtime on the road and are heavily favored at the Fiserv.
Marquette loses 66-60    (vs. green if it went our way)

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Gotcha UWW, I already did the update for today but maybe I'll try something for tomorrow. I did have something but it was kind of small. If the comment said "X team won" that means it went in our favor. If the comment said "X team lost" it means it went against us. But that's certainly not obvious.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If they go 5-0, they’re a 3.

If they go 4-1, they have a good shot at a 3 but likely a 4.

If they lose 2 or more, they’re probably a 5. Maybe a small shot at a 4 with a loss tonight and loss against Nova in BET final, but likely s 5.

I just think it’s that simple at this point.

This is where we disagree. We could go 5-0 and still be a 4 seed if the right teams win. We could go 0-3 and still be a 4-seed if the right teams lose. While how we do is the most important thing, it doesn't happen in a vacuum.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

https://painttouches.com/2019/03/02/2019-tsw-viewing-guide/

Really good results last night with 7/10 going in our favor. Purdue and Kansas losing were huge for our 3-seed chances. Win tonight and we definitely hop over Kansas on the s-curve. A win may be enough to get over Purdue, if not, it puts us right there with them.

10 more games tonight, most of them on the low importance end. Marquette playing is obviously huge and the other result to watch is LSU at Florida. If both go our way it's possible that we hop over LSU. If we don't pass them, there's at very least a tangled mess between MU/LSU/Houston/Purdue that will be hard to sort out. 3 would get 3-seeds, 1 would get the top 4-seed.

[We R Final Four]

Lol, Of course I prefer a 3 seed to a 5 seed. That’s not what I am saying.

What I am saying is what really matters is how Marquette plays in their final 5 games.

If they go 5-0, they’re a 3.

If they go 4-1, they have a good shot at a 3 but likely a 4.

If they lose 2 or more, they’re probably a 5. Maybe a small shot at a 4 with a loss tonight and loss against Nova in BET final, but likely s 5.

I just think it’s that simple at this point.

If you believe that we are approximately #14–in the middle of the 4 seeds, then we need to leapfrog a few teams in front of us to get on the 3 line.  If we go 5-0 and so do the teams directly in front of us,  we probably don’t leapfrog them. If we go 4-1 and so do they teams in front of us...how do we pass these teams to get into the 3 seed?
So, the only way we can jump them is by keeping an eye on how we would....AND how the teams in front of us perform.
Similarly, if we go 4-1 or 3-2, I’ll be watching to see if the teams directly behind us go 5-0 or 4-1. So it does matter for that.

[UWW2MU]

https://painttouches.com/2019/03/02/2019-tsw-viewing-guide/

Really good results last night with 7/10 going in our favor. Purdue and Kansas losing were huge for our 3-seed chances. Win tonight and we definitely hop over Kansas on the s-curve. A win may be enough to get over Purdue, if not, it puts us right there with them.

10 more games tonight, most of them on the low importance end. Marquette playing is obviously huge and the other result to watch is LSU at Florida. If both go our way it's possible that we hop over LSU. If we don't pass them, there's at very least a tangled mess between MU/LSU/Houston/Purdue that will be hard to sort out. 3 would get 3-seeds, 1 would get the top 4-seed.

I'm not sure about these.  When you look at averages of brackets on bracketmatrix, there's a big jump from Kansas to MU and even bigger for LSU to MU.  Can those 1 losses make that +1 jump?   (not that bracketmatrix is gospel)

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'm not sure about these.  When you look at averages of brackets on bracketmatrix, there's a big jump from Kansas to MU and even bigger for LSU to MU.  Can those 1 losses make that +1 jump?   (not that bracketmatrix is gospel)

While bracketmatrix is good for a general snapshot, its a little too reactionary for my taste. I've been using my own s-curve that I created after the bracket reveal.

I'm pretty confident that if Marquette wins, they will pass Kansas on the S-Curve. Kansas was only two spots ahead of Marquette and since then has lost 3 games by an average of 16.3 points. Marquette has lost only twice by must closer margins, though the home loss to Creighton was worse than any of Kansas' 3 losses. Assuming Marquette beats Seton Hall, their 5 wins would also be better than Kansas' 5 wins in the same stretch.

Passing LSU I'm a lot less sure about. They were somewhere between 6-8 spots behind Marquette in the bracket reveal but has since made up that ground and some by getting big wins at Kentucky, vs Tennessee, vs. Auburn, and at Mississippi State. Their home loss to Florida is also better than our home loss to Creighton by a little bit. They've been unquestionably better than Marquette since the bracket reveal but only the committee knows how big of gap there was between #12 Marquette and #18-#20 LSU. Honestly, I don't think a win/loss gets Marquette above LSU tonight, which is why I only said it was possible.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

This is where we disagree. We could go 5-0 and still be a 4 seed if the right teams win. We could go 0-3 and still be a 4-seed if the right teams lose. While how we do is the most important thing, it doesn't happen in a vacuum.

IMO, there is a zero percent chance this team isn't at least a 3 seed if they win out.  ZERO.  Happy to put any amount of wager on that.   

But carry on.  Just felt I should tell the guy stressing about the results of relatively random ACC, B12 or insert whatever conference game on a Tuesday night.  These results, again IMO, are not nearly as important as say other bubble teams losing for fellow bubble teams. 

[MU82]

I was watching the Kentucky-LSU game and loved it when LSU won. I wasn't thinking, "Wait ... how might this affect our NCAA seeding?" It's weird how all of this stuff can change the way we view games.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Another thing to keep in mind in regards to seeding in the 3-5 range.

There are 5 ACC teams in the top 16 of the S curve (likely to get 8 overall bids).

There are are 4 B10 teams in the top 17 of the S curve (likely to get 8 overall bids).

There are 4 B12 teams in the top 19 of the S curve (likely to get 8 overall bids) .

There are 4 SEC teams in the top 20 in the S curve (likely to get 8 overall bids) .

MU has a fairly decent chance to be bumped a seed line one way or the other to try and avoid same-conference teams in regions.  That could end up affecting our seeding more than the results of a Va Tech-FL State game, or Miss St.-Tenn game, or a Kansas-Oklahoma game, etc.

[barfolomew]

IMO, there is a zero percent chance this team isn't at least a 3 seed if they win out.  ZERO.  Happy to put any amount of wager on that.   

[We R Final Four]

IMO, there is a zero percent chance this team isn't at least a 3 seed if they win out.  ZERO.  Happy to put any amount of wager on that.   

But carry on.  Just felt I should tell the guy stressing about the results of relatively random ACC, B12 or insert whatever conference game on a Tuesday night.  These results, again IMO, are not nearly as important as say other bubble teams losing for fellow bubble teams.

Not stressing at all. Enjoying the ride.
Again, your MU scenario is not exclusive.
If we win out.......and the 3 teams that are directly in front of us also win out......how do we jump them?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Not stressing at all. Enjoying the ride.
Again, your MU scenario is not exclusive.
If we win out.......and the 3 teams that are directly in front of us also win out......how do we jump them?

The teams right in front of us or behind us besides Houston play in the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and B12, so its going to be hard for them all to win out.  They're going to play each other.