Expectations

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Championing stats when they spit out data such as Markus and Froling being the 3rd and 4th best defenders on ppp is not a good look.

So ppp allowed is a bad stat when it shows you something you dont like.

But it's a good stat when it shows zone was effective against Creighton.

And when it shows M2M was more effective in every other game it's a bad stat.

Got it.

[NotAnAlum]

Getting back to expectations for next year I think we will learn a lot about Wojo because to be successful he is really going to have to redesign the offense.  No more 3 guys standing around setting picks so a mini guard can run from one side of the court to the other.  There needs to be a lot more pick and roll where the roller is an offensive weapon.  More high low forward to forward passing and probably MOST important more drives by Marcus intended not to get to the rim but to set up others in the paint or for set shots both mid range and 3 pt.  We did very little of this this year.  He should also challenge all of his forward that they will be out there for much shorter lengths of time and during that time they better show max energy on offense and defense.  The passing needs to be faster, no slow motion.  There will be a lot of new talent out there BUT even most of the new guys will have practiced together for more than a year ( 1/2 year in Joey's case) so this team should know how to take advantage of each other's strengths.  If the team doesn't play more like this I'm going to be disappointed and I think you've got to question coaching.
We should rebound much better with all that height.  We need to reduce all the fouling.  There should be depth to the defense so if an opponent beats his man he still has to get around another player of size and height.
As for results playing tough in some meaningful games would be nice for a change.  Prov plays tonight for the BE Championship.  Why can't that be MU next year.  I would expect a season no worse than Butler's this year.  If MU is the 2019 version of Seton Hall this year I think you have to question coaching (I don't Willard is a very good coach)

[rocky_warrior]

I would expect a season no worse than Butler's this year.  If MU is the 2019 version of Seton Hall this year I think you have to question coaching (I don't Willard is a very good coach)

The irony here is that Butler is 9-9 in the BE (as is MU) and Seton Hall is 10-8...but I think I get your point.

[GGGG]

So ppp allowed is a bad stat when it shows you something you dont like.

But it's a good stat when it shows zone was effective against Creighton.

And when it shows M2M was more effective in every other game it's a bad stat.

Got it.

That pretty much summarizes it doesn't it.

[GGGG]

Yea - Duke a team far more athletic than our team couldn't get the job done in M2M, so K went zone, and stuck with it.  Exclusively.  Meanwhile our physically disadvantaged team was forced to play M2M for ~95% of our D possession this year.

I trust Wojo and his ability to figure out what's best with his personnel than I trust you.  Especially when the statistics back it up.  Saying he is wrong then goalpost shifting your use of stats makes you look stubborn and petty.

[NotAnAlum]

The irony here is that Butler is 9-9 in the BE (as is MU) and Seton Hall is 10-8...but I think I get your point.

Sorry, meant Creighton, not Butler.  We should finish no worse than 3rd. SH was projected to be in the top 3 which is where we should be next year.

[brewcity77]

So ppp allowed is a bad stat when it shows you something you dont like.

But it's a good stat when it shows zone was effective against Creighton.

And when it shows M2M was more effective in every other game it's a bad stat.

Got it.

[Floorslapper]

So ppp allowed is a bad stat when it shows you something you dont like.

But it's a good stat when it shows zone was effective against Creighton.

And when it shows M2M was more effective in every other game it's a bad stat.

Got it.

Are you really this dense?

The zone ppp against Creighton IS RELEVANT because it is the ONLY time Wojo played it exclusively...and it was done with only 1 midget in the game.  How many times do you need to get it through your thick skull that measuring the effectiveness of a defense that is sprinkled in ~5 random possessions per game, is NOT a relevant sample size.

We were 173 in D in the country.  M2M was hardly effective.

And your Synergy D stats are silly.  But, knock yourself out - if you believe Howard and Froling are the 3rd best defenders on the team, ahead of Sacar, Cain, Heldt - have at it.

[Floorslapper]

I trust Wojo and his ability to figure out what's best with his personnel than I trust you.  Especially when the statistics back it up.  Saying he is wrong then goalpost shifting your use of stats makes you look stubborn and petty.

Hopefully one of these years your faith in Wojo will be rewarded.  Don't like the trend line of his team's defensive performances.  Every year they have gotten worse.  It's his roster.  All his players.  173 aint gonna cut it. 

There is no goal post shifting going on.  My positions are consistent.  Small sample size is irrelevant, and advanced stats have limitations.  Howard and Froling being 3 and 4 on team in ppp allowed rating illustrate this perfectly.

[rocky_warrior]

Are you really this dense?

How many times do you need to get it through your thick skull that measuring the effectiveness of a defense that is sprinkled in ~5 random possessions per game, is NOT a relevant sample size.

And your Synergy D stats are silly.

Ners - I might suggest a little introspection here.  You're losing it again.

[Floorslapper]

Ners - I might suggest a little introspection here.  You're losing it again.

Takes two Rocky.  I'm no more "losing it," than are the usual handful of staunch Wojo supporters who counterpoint my positions.  It's one thing to be supportive.  Another to be a complete apologist.  Trying to argue our 173 rated defense, as a byproduct of us playing M2M ~95% of the time,  was the right coaching decision is, IMO, apologist territory.

[GGGG]

Hopefully one of these years your faith in Wojo will be rewarded.  Don't like the trend line of his team's defensive performances.  Every year they have gotten worse.  It's his roster.  All his players.  173 aint gonna cut it.

This has nothing to do with Wojo.  I just think coaches know more about how to do their job than you do.

Now of course that doesn't mean debating those decisions isn't worthwhile, but when the objective evidence shows that you are likely wrong, continuing to insist that the coach is a moron and that you know better is going to result in a lot of eye-rolling.

[rocky_warrior]

I'm no more "losing it," than are the usual handful of staunch Wojo supporters who counterpoint my positions. 

Your "positions" are not as correct as you'd like to believe. Zone wasn't the answer for Marquette either.  Feel free to call Marquette a bad defensive team, and likely Wojo not very good at coaching defense.  But neither zone nor m2m was effective for Marquette this year.  It's that simple.  I don't know why you're being so "dense" as you like to call it.

[Floorslapper]

Your "positions" are not as correct as you'd like to believe. Zone wasn't the answer for Marquette either.  Feel free to call Marquette a bad defensive team, and likely Wojo not very good at coaching defense.  But neither zone nor m2m was effective for Marquette this year.  It's that simple.  I don't know why you're being so "dense" as you like to call it.

I can agree that we wouldn't be considered "effective" as in a Top 75 caliber defense in zone or M2M.  I feel confident we could have been markedly improved from 173 to say 100 had we implemented zone from the drop.

You simply do NOT chose M2M when you are outclassed at every position as it relates to size, strength, speed.  Our Foul Rate was off the charts.  Why?  Because we simply couldn't match up physically.

I'll leave it at that.

[jesmu84]

Your "positions" are not as correct as you'd like to believe. Zone wasn't the answer for Marquette either.  Feel free to call Marquette a bad defensive team, and likely Wojo not very good at coaching defense.  But neither zone nor m2m was effective for Marquette this year.  It's that simple.  I don't know why you're being so "dense" as you like to call it.

[Marcus92]

The irony here is that Butler is 9-9 in the BE (as is MU) and Seton Hall is 10-8...but I think I get your point.

I keep coming back to this. The difference between 7th and 3rd in the Big East is a single game. MU isn't where we want to be. But we're a lot closer than many think.

[GooooMarquette]

I keep coming back to this. The difference between 7th and 3rd in the Big East is a single game. MU isn't where we want to be. But we're a lot closer than many think.

Yep.  If we hadn't screwed the pooch at DePaul, things would be looking a lot different.

[WarriorDad]

TAMU

I’ll ask the question again, have you ever seen a real three point shooter not be able to hit a free throw? He is not a shooter, period.

Bruce Bowen in the Pros

NBA career 3pt % = 39.3%
NBA career FT % = 57.5%

[WarriorDad]

Right, and Wojo would eat up the Horizon League. Ironically, if we were there we'd probably go 25-8 with the automatic qualifier 3 out of every 4 years.

I'm just not sure Wojo has the chops to hang in the BEAST, either in terms of the teams he fields or the chessmasters he coaches against. Maybe he's just about at the inflection point on his learning curve and its all going to come together, but I can't shake the nagging feeling that those kinds of arguments (look at Jay Wright - he needed 5 years!) are just wishful thinking.

But I'm still planning on us cutting down nets this year - either in MSG or San Antonio.

Define hanging in the BEAST?

.500 in the #2 conference in the land isn't hanging?

Last year 10-8 in the conference and finished in 3rd place.

Year prior 8-10 in the conference.

Last three years, exactly .500 in the league at 27-27.

He's done just fine hanging in the Big East.  Whether he can be in the top 3 type coach is a different matter unless .500 ball in one of the nation's premier conferences means not hanging.

[barfolomew]

This is one of the best threads I have read on Scoop in quite some time. Thanks all for the quality posts.

Agreed. These are some Great Expectations.

[1SE]

Define hanging in the BEAST?

.500 in the #2 conference in the land isn't hanging?

Last year 10-8 in the conference and finished in 3rd place.

Year prior 8-10 in the conference.

Last three years, exactly .500 in the league at 27-27.

He's done just fine hanging in the Big East.  Whether he can be in the top 3 type coach is a different matter unless .500 ball in one of the nation's premier conferences means not hanging.

Yeah, but considering there are usually 3 cellar-dwellers per year, going .500 against the "good" competition would be a conference record more like 12-6. 12-6 year in and year out would be "hanging" in my view.

[BM1090]

Yeah, but considering there are usually 3 cellar-dwellers per year, going .500 against the "good" competition would be a conference record more like 12-6. 12-6 year in and year out would be "hanging" in my view.

Don't know if that's fair in a year where the conference has two of the top five teams in the country.

[Pakuni]

Yeah, but considering there are usually 3 cellar-dwellers per year, going .500 against the "good" competition would be a conference record more like 12-6. 12-6 year in and year out would be "hanging" in my view.

In that case, why not just state that your expectation is "finishing in the top 3 every year" instead of "hanging?"
12-6 would have been good for third this year, second last year, third the year before that, and second in 2014-15.

FWIW, Jay Wright is, by your standard, the one and only Big East coach who can hang with Big East competition.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Are you really this dense?

The zone ppp against Creighton IS RELEVANT because it is the ONLY time Wojo played it exclusively...and it was done with only 1 midget in the game.  How many times do you need to get it through your thick skull that measuring the effectiveness of a defense that is sprinkled in ~5 random possessions per game, is NOT a relevant sample size.

So your sample size of one game is relevant. But my sample size of 1000s of possessions is irrelevant. Stats that fit your narrative are relevant, stats that don't are irrelevant.

We were 173 in D in the country.  M2M was hardly effective.

Agreed. That doesn't mean that zone would have been any better or that it would have been better without hampering our elite offense.

And your Synergy D stats are silly.  But, knock yourself out - if you believe Howard and Froling are the 3rd best defenders on the team, ahead of Sacar, Cain, Heldt - have at it.

Sigh....

Again (for the 2nd time) Synergy D stats are not a thing. Synergy is a service that collects stats. The same stat that you say proves that zone defense is the answer is the same stat that Froling and Howard are 3rd and 4th in.

Again (for the 5th time) Froling is the result of small sample size with some of his biggest games coming against the likes of American, DePaul, and Seton Hall (when they were struggling). Not sure about Howard though the difference between him in 4th and Cain in 7th is pretty small and could be explained by the quality of opponents they are facing.

Again (for the 4th time) I, nor anybody else said Harry and Howard were the 3rd and 4th best defenders. They are 3rd and 4th in a particular stat that is generally considered one of the best indicators of individual defense. I would rank them both behind Cain as well but ahead of John and Rowdy. Though John has come a long way and is weighed down by his early season stats.

Let's go back to how this started. You said Cain was a HUGE difference maker on defense. I provided a stat that challenged that assertion (but also added that I loved his length and ability to disrupt). To this point, you have only quoted your eye test as proof of your assertion. You pride yourself on "everything I say is backed by stats." What is the statistical arguement for Cain being a HUGE difference maker on defense?

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

If Wojo switches to heavy use of zone D, how do other coaches game plan differently?  There is no guarantee that one good half of a surprise zone defense means that a scouted zone repeats the same results.