MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Coleman on February 22, 2023, 02:02:07 PM
-
I think after last night's win we are one of the best 4s/worst 3s (right around 12/13 on the S Curve). I think if we win out the regular season, we are a solid 3. For the sake of argument, let's assume that happens and we fly out to the BET sitting at 25-6 (17-3) and a projected 3 seed.
The question is, is there anything we can do at the BET to get us to a 2? Is it already out of reach? Do we have to win the whole thing? Would going 2-1 and making the final be enough?
I think we have to win out and be 28-6 to have a shot at the 2. But your thoughts are welcome.
-
I think winning out would make us a 2 seed. Regular season and tournament champs would have to be given a 2.
-
I think we are 10/11 on the S Curve right now. Solid 3
-
Winning out in the regular season and BET, and 2+ regular season losses by UVA, Baylor and Kansas State, for a start.
-
Prayer.
-
Hope yall are ready to hold your nose and root for BC tonight.
-
We need help….its not just about us. The only way we jump teams between ~7-10 is if they lose and we win.
-
Hope yall are ready to hold your nose and root for BC tonight.
Rooting against Virginia is something I do 31 plus times a year. Rodents East.
-
Marquette would be very unfortunate to not get to the 2 seed if they win out (regular season and BET).
In the initial release, Marquette was #14. We need to jump 6 teams.
Lots of scenarios, but also lots of chances for other teams to lose games, even multiple games. If we win out and are outright Big East Champs and BET champs, it would be really difficult for us to lose out.
Really, we want none of the teams in slots 5-13 to win their tournament, and we want them to lose any games they have against teams in slots 1-4.
I ran through a lot of scenarios. It’s very likely at least 4-5 teams ahead of us will have lost 2x since then first top 16 reveal (Indiana and Baylor are already halfway there with recent losses). No way we wouldn’t jump those teams if we win out.
-
We need someone to beat UConn in 4/5 game in the BET for starters. That team in MSG will be very difficult for us to beat.
-
2 is a very long shot. We have no more games that will move the needle positively and most of the teams above us don't have many games that will move the needle negatively. We are counting on really good teams to lose to bad teams or lose out
-
We need someone to beat UConn in 4/5 game in the BET for starters. That team in MSG will be very difficult for us to beat.
So we need Providence to win tonight and for Seton Hall to get hot.
-
I’d happily take a 3 seed …
And, I agree that MU is a solid 3 right now. Solid 3.
-
Hope yall are ready to hold your nose and root for BC tonight.
BC up 7 at half.
-
2 is a very long shot. We have no more games that will move the needle positively and most of the teams above us don't have many games that will move the needle negatively. We are counting on really good teams to lose to bad teams or lose out
We could have 2 move the need in BET though.
Thats where people are talking 2 seed. In the improbable event we enter selection Sunday 28-6
-
Baylor has lost twice now since the reveal. No way are they ahead of us anymore. Tennessee lost again and will be behind us and when Virginia loses tonight we will pass them as well. We very well could be the top 3 seed after this weekend if we win vs DePaul.
-
I think it really comes down to who doesn’t win the pac 12. I can’t see both Arizona and UCLA on the 2 line which how bad that conference is.
-
Let’s go BC. Currently up 12
-
Hope yall are ready to hold your nose and root for BC tonight.
My Charlottesville friends will never, ever know how much I enjoyed UVA getting stomped by lowly BC tonight. Otherwise, I'm happy for them although I find their team boring.
-
We could have 2 move the need in BET though.
Thats where people are talking 2 seed. In the improbable event we enter selection Sunday 28-6
I don't think BET wins move the needle.
Baylor has lost twice now since the reveal. No way are they ahead of us anymore. Tennessee lost again and will be behind us and when Virginia loses tonight we will pass them as well. We very well could be the top 3 seed after this weekend if we win vs DePaul.
I can almost guarantee that Baylor is still ahead of us. They were 7 spots above us in the reveal and while they have lost twice they were road wins against a projected 1 seed and a projected 3 seed. They won't be dinged harshly for either. I do think we are in striking distance though.
-
UVA is 34 in KenPom. If we win out, which would include neutral wins most likely against UCONN and then Xavier or Creighton, and they’re a 2 above us…
28-6, BE outright regular season and BET champs, winners of 11 straight, and probably 8 in KenPom if that’s how it plays out. That’s a 2 seed.
Hopefully we find out.
-
We need someone to beat UConn in 4/5 game in the BET for starters. That team in MSG will be very difficult for us to beat.
Not sure if I agree with this. If we win out in the reg season, and meet UConn in the semis, I don’t think a loss drops us off the 2 line. BUT, I think a win and subsequent finals win over a top team might move the needle enough to move us up to the 2 line, provided some other dominoes fall our way. Winning games against mid/lower tier teams does not help us in any way
-
UVA is 34 in KenPom. If we win out, which would include neutral wins most likely against UCONN and then Xavier or Creighton, and they’re a 2 above us…
28-6, BE outright regular season and BET champs, winners of 11 straight, and probably 8 in KenPom if that’s how it plays out. That’s a 2 seed.
Hopefully we find out.
Yeah - since 3 of the teams ahead of us are guaranteed one more loss you think we'd be close - but it kind of depends on who takes those Ls.
It seems we're mostly trending into a 3 lock category assuming we take care of business in the next four - do that and come w a result anything other that BET title (lose semi or final) and I think we're a 3
-
Not sure if I agree with this. If we win out in the reg season, and meet UConn in the semis, I don’t think a loss drops us off the 2 line. BUT, I think a win and subsequent finals win over a top team might move the needle enough to move us up to the 2 line, provided some other dominoes fall our way. Winning games against mid/lower tier teams does not help us in any way
Eh, I don't think it makes much difference either way - any of X, PC, UCONN and CU will be tough in the garden and a W or L against any does the same thing for our resume.
-
I think it’s important to remember the challenges the Selection Committee can have placing teams in the bracket while following certain guidelines, especially those that require separation of teams from the same conference so they don’t meet too early. That can be one reason why there isn’t too much movement based on conference tournament results.
This year there are going to be challenges created by having 4 or 5 Big 12 teams and 4 Big East in the top 4-5 seed lines. It is inevitable that teams will not be placed precisely as they would if the seed list established by the Committee were followed strictly in an S curve. In some cases a team might be placed in a different seed line.
Because of that, I don’t think it’s worth devoting too much energy to movements of one or two places on the seed list. The competitive advantage between being number 8 or number 9 on the seed list is insignificant.
-
Nobody is considering secret scrimmages?
-
I think it’s important to remember the challenges the Selection Committee can have placing teams in the bracket while following certain guidelines, especially those that require separation of teams from the same conference so they don’t meet too early. That can be one reason why there isn’t too much movement based on conference tournament results.
This year there are going to be challenges created by having 4 or 5 Big 12 teams and 4 Big East in the top 4-5 seed lines. It is inevitable that teams will not be placed precisely as they would if the seed list established by the Committee were followed strictly in an S curve. In some cases a team might be placed in a different seed line.
Because of that, I don’t think it’s worth devoting too much energy to movements of one or two places on the seed list. The competitive advantage between being number 8 or number 9 on the seed list is insignificant.
I guess that depends on what you define as significant. I haven’t seen odds based on S rank, but the probability of success getting to the Elite 8 is 45% for a 2 and 25% for a 3. For a final four, it is 20% to 11%. I’d say those are pretty significant.
How much of that is based on the seed and how much is based on the quality difference of teams on the two seed lines is beyond the scope of any study of which I am aware.
Seeding matters. I am very confident that if MU wins out and wins the BET, they’ll be a 2. But doing those two things is far from a sure thing. Given the potential of the top 5 in the Big East, it is downright difficult and maybe not even to be expected regardless of how we do these next few games.
If MU accomplishes that feat, they deserve a 2. And they will get it barring some strange results elsewhere.
To me, the secret scrimmage is the thing that ensures the 2 and maybe sneaks us into 1 overall. Wouldn’t be surprised if we actually get a straight bye to the Final Four in an unprecedented but wholly justified move.
Big East Champ + BET Champ + Secret Scrimmage = Final Four
Thank you to Newsdreams for making dreams a newsworthy reality.
-
I guess that depends on what you define as significant. I haven’t seen odds based on S rank, but the probability of success getting to the Elite 8 is 45% for a 2 and 25% for a 3. For a final four, it is 20% to 11%. I’d say those are pretty significant.
How much of that is based on the seed and how much is based on the quality difference of teams on the two seed lines is beyond the scope of any study of which I am aware.
Seeding matters. I am very confident that if MU wins out and wins the BET, they’ll be a 2. But doing those two things is far from a sure thing. Given the potential of the top 5 in the Big East, it is downright difficult and maybe not even to be expected regardless of how we do these next few games.
If MU accomplishes that feat, they deserve a 2. And they will get it barring some strange results elsewhere.
To me, the secret scrimmage is the thing that ensures the 2 and maybe sneaks us into 1 overall. Wouldn’t be surprised if we actually get a straight bye to the Final Four in an unprecedented but wholly justified move.
Big East Champ + BET Champ + Secret Scrimmage = Final Four
Thank you to Newsdreams for making dreams a newsworthy reality.
You're welcome
-
I think it’s important to remember the challenges the Selection Committee can have placing teams in the bracket while following certain guidelines, especially those that require separation of teams from the same conference so they don’t meet too early. That can be one reason why there isn’t too much movement based on conference tournament results.
This year there are going to be challenges created by having 4 or 5 Big 12 teams and 4 Big East in the top 4-5 seed lines. It is inevitable that teams will not be placed precisely as they would if the seed list established by the Committee were followed strictly in an S curve. In some cases a team might be placed in a different seed line.
Because of that, I don’t think it’s worth devoting too much energy to movements of one or two places on the seed list. The competitive advantage between being number 8 or number 9 on the seed list is insignificant.
This is a good point. The most important thing is avoiding a 4 seed. You want to go as far as possible without having to play a 1. 2 and 3 are a bit interchangeable
-
The most important thing is avoiding a 4 seed. You want to go as far as possible without having to play a 1. 2 and 3 are a bit interchangeable
I agree with this. It's definitely important to get up to the three line, but beyond that, the difference is minimal. I'd love for MU to be a two-seed because that would mean that they finished strong and garnered a lot of respect. But in the grand scheme of things, as long as the reach the three line, it's great.
-
Except the statistics that MUCam gave just above indicate that there is a valuable difference between 3 and 2. That is, getting a 2 seed rather a 3 seed increases notably the probability of getting to the Elite 8 and the Final Four.
-
Except the statistics that MUCam gave just above indicate that there is a valuable difference between 3 and 2. That is, getting a 2 seed rather a 3 seed increases notably the probability of getting to the Elite 8 and the Final Four.
But, those statistics are comparing teams to each other. Overall, teams that get seeded No. 2 are by definition going to be better than teams that get seeded No. 3. So, it's not terribly surprising that twos fare better overall than threes. But we're talking here about the same team -- Marquette's 2022-2023 team. I do not believe the statistics cited by MUCam indicate that the 2022-23 MU team will have a better chance progressing in the tournament as a two-seed than a three-seed.
-
Fundamentally I don't think there is much difference between a two or three seed. Your first round opponent is going to be a mid-major conference champion that could give you issues depending on your style of play. Your second round opponent is likely going to be a P6 at large that can definitely beat you if you don't bring your A-game.
-
Planning to dig in later today, but I feel like Alabama, Purdue, Kansas, Houston, Arizona, Baylor, and Texas are pretty well cemented ahead of us. Would take notable collapses to get past them. UCLA is the one I think might be vulnerable to fall, but they have a huge metric edge. Our win column looks a lot better, but maybe if they split the mountain trip and lose to Arizona in the finale, maybe we can sneak past them. At this point, I think top of the 3 line is a lot more likely than making it to the 2, and might even be preferential because it could get us a better regional destination.
-
I guess that depends on what you define as significant. I haven’t seen odds based on S rank, but the probability of success getting to the Elite 8 is 45% for a 2 and 25% for a 3. For a final four, it is 20% to 11%. I’d say those are pretty significant.
How much of that is based on the seed and how much is based on the quality difference of teams on the two seed lines is beyond the scope of any study of which I am aware.
Seeding matters. I am very confident that if MU wins out and wins the BET, they’ll be a 2. But doing those two things is far from a sure thing. Given the potential of the top 5 in the Big East, it is downright difficult and maybe not even to be expected regardless of how we do these next few games.
If MU accomplishes that feat, they deserve a 2. And they will get it barring some strange results elsewhere.
To me, the secret scrimmage is the thing that ensures the 2 and maybe sneaks us into 1 overall. Wouldn’t be surprised if we actually get a straight bye to the Final Four in an unprecedented but wholly justified move.
Big East Champ + BET Champ + Secret Scrimmage = Final Four
Thank you to Newsdreams for making dreams a newsworthy reality.
I doubt if it has ever been broken down that far, in part because I don’t think the Committee has released the seed list until the last few years. And because of conference issues, number 8 on the seed list isn’t always bracketed with number 1 on the seed list.
But, the numbers you gave help to illustrate what I’m saying. It should be apparent that, in a perfect S curve, the number 9 team doesn’t have its chances of reaching the Elite 8 suddenly jump by 20 percentage points just by moving up to number 8 on the seed list. On the other hand, team 5 on the seed list should have a significantly better chance of reaching the Elite 8 than team 12 because if the seed list is done well that team might be significantly better.
As of today, I’m guessing that MU is around 10 on the seed list based on its recent victories and losses by other teams. Whatever their chances of advancing to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 are, I don’t think they will change significantly if they can nose up to number 8. In that narrow range, specific matchups are more important than seeding.
I agree with others that getting a 3 seed is much better than getting a 4, but Ii think the marginal difference between the last 2 and the first 3 isn’t that great.
Said another way, I think that the higher seeds advance further in the tournament primarily because they are better teams, not because they have been given better seeds.
-
I doubt if it has ever been broken down that far, in part because I don’t think the Committee has released the seed list until the last few years. And because of conference issues, number 8 on the seed list isn’t always bracketed with number 1 on the seed list.
But, the numbers you gave help to illustrate what I’m saying. It should be apparent that, in a perfect S curve, the number 9 team doesn’t have its chances of reaching the Elite 8 suddenly jump by 20 percentage points just by moving up to number 8 on the seed list. On the other hand, team 5 on the seed list should have a significantly better chance of reaching the Elite 8 than team 12 because if the seed list is done well that team might be significantly better.
As of today, I’m guessing that MU is around 10 on the seed list based on its recent victories and losses by other teams. Whatever their chances of advancing to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 are, I don’t think they will change significantly if they can nose up to number 8. In that narrow range, specific matchups are more important than seeding.
I agree with others that getting a 3 seed is mush better than getting a 4, but i think the marginal difference between the last 2 and the first 3 isn’t that great.
Said another way, I think that the higher seeds advance further in the tournament primarily because they are better teams, not because they have been given better seeds.
Exactly. Agree on all points.
-
To note, a 2 seed, although unlikely, would be MU’s highest seed since the (current) seeding process began in 1979. And currently as #11 in Pomeroy, this is Shaka’s best statistical team ever driven by the offense.
-
Planning to dig in later today, but I feel like Alabama, Purdue, Kansas, Houston, Arizona, Baylor, and Texas are pretty well cemented ahead of us. Would take notable collapses to get past them. UCLA is the one I think might be vulnerable to fall, but they have a huge metric edge. Our win column looks a lot better, but maybe if they split the mountain trip and lose to Arizona in the finale, maybe we can sneak past them. At this point, I think top of the 3 line is a lot more likely than making it to the 2, and might even be preferential because it could get us a better regional destination.
So top of the 3 line would likely be Columbus.
Getting to the 2 could see Marquette head where?
-
So top of the 3 line would likely be Columbus.
Getting to the 2 could see Marquette head where?
That will be the subject of my next bracketology piece. Give me 24 hours or so ;)
-
Haha they must call that a teaser in the biz
-
Planning to dig in later today, but I feel like Alabama, Purdue, Kansas, Houston, Arizona, Baylor, and Texas are pretty well cemented ahead of us. Would take notable collapses to get past them. UCLA is the one I think might be vulnerable to fall, but they have a huge metric edge. Our win column looks a lot better, but maybe if they split the mountain trip and lose to Arizona in the finale, maybe we can sneak past them. At this point, I think top of the 3 line is a lot more likely than making it to the 2, and might even be preferential because it could get us a better regional destination.
Curious about Baylor being cemented ahead of us. Currently 3rd place in the Big 12. It would seem to me that if we win out regular season schedule and finish 25-6 and 17-3 in BE play, that should trump Baylor finishing 22-9 and 11-7 in Big12 play as projected by Ken Pom. And of course our head to head win against them.
-
That will be the subject of my next bracketology piece. Give me 24 hours or so ;)
Please tell me there's a chance they end up in Des Moines!
-
I doubt if it has ever been broken down that far, in part because I don’t think the Committee has released the seed list until the last few years. And because of conference issues, number 8 on the seed list isn’t always bracketed with number 1 on the seed list.
But, the numbers you gave help to illustrate what I’m saying. It should be apparent that, in a perfect S curve, the number 9 team doesn’t have its chances of reaching the Elite 8 suddenly jump by 20 percentage points just by moving up to number 8 on the seed list. On the other hand, team 5 on the seed list should have a significantly better chance of reaching the Elite 8 than team 12 because if the seed list is done well that team might be significantly better.
As of today, I’m guessing that MU is around 10 on the seed list based on its recent victories and losses by other teams. Whatever their chances of advancing to the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 are, I don’t think they will change significantly if they can nose up to number 8. In that narrow range, specific matchups are more important than seeding.
I agree with others that getting a 3 seed is mush better than getting a 4, but i think the marginal difference between the last 2 and the first 3 isn’t that great.
Said another way, I think that the higher seeds advance further in the tournament primarily because they are better teams, not because they have been given better seeds.
Precisely the point I was trying to make, but said much better.
-
Except the statistics that MUCam gave just above indicate that there is a valuable difference between 3 and 2. That is, getting a 2 seed rather a 3 seed increases notably the probability of getting to the Elite 8 and the Final Four.
Correlation or causation? I'd say its just more likely that the better teams have a better chance of getting seeded higher and also a better chance of going farther. Not because they are seeded higher.
-
It's mostly because 2 seeds are better than 3 seeds...but 13 seeds are also better than 14 seeds and 6 seeds are better than 7 seeds. Seeding does play a small role.
-
Please tell me there's a chance they end up in Des Moines!
I would think we’d need to jump both Kansas and Kansas State. Kansas State would be possible, but I still think fairly unlikely. I think Iowa State is behind us.
I wonder if we’d prefer Columbus anyways by being further East.
-
As a three seed we've barely scraped by Davidson (13) and Holy Cross (03) with a comfortable win over BYU (12) and As a four seed we got shat on by Austin Croshere (97)
Based on these previous experiences I'd be much much happier with us doing everything in our power to get up to a 2 but most importantly we get the hell away from being a 4.
-
As a three seed we've barely scraped by Davidson (13) and Holy Cross (03) with a comfortable win over BYU (12) and As a four seed we got shat on by Austin Croshere (97)
Based on these previous experiences I'd be much much happier with us doing everything in our power to get up to a 2 but most importantly we get the hell away from being a 4.
They were a 7-seed in ‘97
Losses as 5-seed to Alabama, Murray State and Tulsa
-
Please tell me there's a chance they end up in Des Moines!
I think it will be tough. I think Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, and Baylor will all be in line for that placement. Bama and Houston will fill up Birmingham and Des Moines is the closest second option to Texas and Kansas.
I think Columbus is a good bet. Albany ad the backup
-
So top of the 3 line would likely be Columbus.
Getting to the 2 could see Marquette head where?
I’d much rather but a 3 in Columbus than a 2 anywhere else. Columbus will be a sea of gold!!!
-
They were a 7-seed in ‘97
Losses as 5-seed to Alabama, Murray State and Tulsa
My bad. Which was the 4 seed year? 96?
4 seed in 96: Ok we handled Monmouth pretty well so maybe I'm not as terrified of a 4 seed as I thought.
Either way didn't include 5 seed because I like to imagine we're pretty much past that at this point.
-
My bad. Which was the 4 seed year? 96?
4 seed in 96: Ok we handled Monmouth pretty well so maybe I'm not as terrified of a 4 seed as I thought.
Either way didn't include 5 seed because I like to imagine we're pretty much past that at this point.
Getting off the 4-5 line is preferable either way.
-
I’d much rather but a 3 in Columbus than a 2 anywhere else. Columbus will be a sea of gold!!!
Only if you include the Old Gold and Black of Purdue.
Columbus would be a convenient location but Boiler fans have probably been booking their reservations and buying up tickets there for the last few months.
-
Only if you include the Old Gold and Black of Purdue.
Columbus would be a convenient location but Boiler fans have probably been booking their reservations and buying up tickets there for the last few months.
Even though it would no longer matter, my guess is that Purdue fans would be largely pro-MU given their win over us.
-
Curious about Baylor being cemented ahead of us. Currently 3rd place in the Big 12. It would seem to me that if we win out regular season schedule and finish 25-6 and 17-3 in BE play, that should trump Baylor finishing 22-9 and 11-7 in Big12 play as projected by Ken Pom. And of course our head to head win against them.
Cemented might be a little strong, but they are ahead of us in 5/6 metrics on the Team Sheets and have 4 Q1A road/neutral wins to our 1. They also have zero losses outside Quadrant 1 (we have 1 currently) and zero losses outside the NET Top-25 (we have 4). I also lean toward them being higher than the 7 the Selection Committee listed them at because the results of last week that likely weren't factored into SC voting probably had Baylor closer to the top of the 2-line than the bottom.
-
Cemented might be a little strong, but they are ahead of us in 5/6 metrics on the Team Sheets and have 4 Q1A road/neutral wins to our 1. They also have zero losses outside Quadrant 1 (we have 1 currently) and zero losses outside the NET Top-25 (we have 4). I also lean toward them being higher than the 7 the Selection Committee listed them at because the results of last week that likely weren't factored into SC voting probably had Baylor closer to the top of the 2-line than the bottom.
But head to head they've got nothing on us!
-
Please tell me there's a chance they end up in Des Moines!
This^^^^^^^^^^
-
Cemented might be a little strong, but they are ahead of us in 5/6 metrics on the Team Sheets and have 4 Q1A road/neutral wins to our 1. They also have zero losses outside Quadrant 1 (we have 1 currently) and zero losses outside the NET Top-25 (we have 4). I also lean toward them being higher than the 7 the Selection Committee listed them at because the results of last week that likely weren't factored into SC voting probably had Baylor closer to the top of the 2-line than the bottom.
The comparison between MU and Baylor raises the question of how much credit a team should get for having more of something when they have had more opportunities to get them.
I recognize Baylor's advantage in the metrics, which gives them an edge right off the bat.
When it comes to quality wins, Baylor has had more games in Quads 1 and 2 than MU mainly because the Big 12 offers them. Some examples:
In Quad 1A, Baylor is 6-6, MU is 4-4
In Quad 1B, Baylor is 2-2, MU is 1-1
In Quad 2, Baylor is 4-0, MU is 5-1 (the Wisconsin game slid into Q2 again)
In Quads 3 and 4, Baylor is 8-0, MU is 12-0.
Baylor's OOC SOS is stronger at 42 to MU's 140. MU was hurt by Wisconsin, ND, and Georgia Tech all being weaker than expected. Baylor's OOC schedule included 5 Q1 games to MU's 2.
I would place Baylor above MU too, and if Baylor wins its remaining home games against Texas and Iowa State, it's hard to see anything MU could do to close that gap, except win the BET. And even that might not be enough.
If Baylor stays ahead of MU, that would probably end any chance MU would have of playing in Des Moines
-
The comparison between MU and Baylor raises the question of how much credit a team should get for having more of something when they have had more opportunities to get them.
I recognize Baylor's advantage in the metrics, which gives them an edge right off the bat.
When it comes to quality wins, Baylor has had more games in Quads 1 and 2 than MU mainly because the Big 12 offers them. Some examples:
In Quad 1A, Baylor is 6-6, MU is 4-4
In Quad 1B, Baylor is 2-2, MU is 1-1
In Quad 2, Baylor is 4-0, MU is 5-1 (the Wisconsin game slid into Q2 again)
In Quads 3 and 4, Baylor is 8-0, MU is 12-0.
Baylor's OOC SOS is stronger at 42 to MU's 140. MU was hurt by Wisconsin, ND, and Georgia Tech all being weaker than expected. Baylor's OOC schedule included 5 Q1 games to MU's 2.
I would place Baylor above MU too, and if Baylor wins its remaining home games against Texas and Iowa State, it's hard to see anything MU could do to close that gap, except win the BET. And even that might not be enough.
If Baylor stays ahead of MU, that would probably end any chance MU would have of playing in Des Moines
So we want Baylor to lose both or still beat Iowa St?
-
This^^^^^^^^^^
-
Just borrowing a scene from one of the greatest movies of all time :
Kolek - 'Well I guess there's only one thing left to do'
Ben Gold - 'What's that?'
Kolek - 'Win the whole. f'ing. thing.'
-
Just borrowing a scene from one of the greatest movies of all time :
Kolek - 'Well I guess there's only one thing left to do'
Ben Gold - 'What's that?'
Kolek - 'Win the whole. f'ing. thing.'
That team got swept by Jack Parkman and the White Sox in the ALCS
-
So we want Baylor to lose both or still beat Iowa St?
I guess that depends on whether the priority is moving up on Baylor or getting or staying ahead of Iowa State.
-
I think it probably is best if Baylor beats Iowa State and the result of Baylor vs Texas probably doesn’t matter a whole lot
-
The comparison between MU and Baylor raises the question of how much credit a team should get for having more of something when they have had more opportunities to get them.
I recognize Baylor's advantage in the metrics, which gives them an edge right off the bat.
When it comes to quality wins, Baylor has had more games in Quads 1 and 2 than MU mainly because the Big 12 offers them. Some examples:
In Quad 1A, Baylor is 6-6, MU is 4-4
In Quad 1B, Baylor is 2-2, MU is 1-1
In Quad 2, Baylor is 4-0, MU is 5-1 (the Wisconsin game slid into Q2 again)
In Quads 3 and 4, Baylor is 8-0, MU is 12-0.
Baylor's OOC SOS is stronger at 42 to MU's 140. MU was hurt by Wisconsin, ND, and Georgia Tech all being weaker than expected. Baylor's OOC schedule included 5 Q1 games to MU's 2.
I would place Baylor above MU too, and if Baylor wins its remaining home games against Texas and Iowa State, it's hard to see anything MU could do to close that gap, except win the BET. And even that might not be enough.
If Baylor stays ahead of MU, that would probably end any chance MU would have of playing in Des Moines
The biggest difference is breaking out those Q1A wins:
Baylor: @ 24 TCU, @26 WVU, N 4 UCLA, N 10 Gonzaga, H 6 Kansas, H 15 Arkansas
Marquette: @ 14 Creighton, H 7 UConn, H 12 Baylor, H 14 Creighton
The two true road games and two neutral court wins really stand out. Especially since they have three top-10 wins (2 away from home) to our one.
If we're going to get a 2-seed, I think the team we are more likely to pass is UCLA. If they slip up on the Mountain Road Trip (at Utah tonight, at Colorado Sunday) and lose their finale at home to Arizona, our high-end wins and their general struggles with tourney level competition might allow us to get ahead of them, despite a strong metric advantage for the Bruins. Especially if there's any regular season conference champion boost given.
-
Not in our control:
We need more teams above us to lose.
We need Wisconsin and Mississippi State to play well the last few games.
In our control:
We need to beat our last three teams more than the predicted scoring margin.
Probably need to win Big East tournament, but if the above three go our way getting to championship game might do it.
-
I really think the impact of what UW and Miss State do, and the margin of victory in the last 3 games , is extremely small. Those things get pretty diluted as the number of games played approaches 30.
I think winning the BET, combined with multiple losses from a couple of the teams not far ahead, might be the only way for MU to move up to the 2 seed line.
But, for the reasons I’ve given before, I don’t think being number 7-8, as opposed to number 9-10, on the seed list makes that much difference in terms of MU’s ability to advance in the NCAA. I just want them to avoid bad losses that would drop them down.
-
UCLA got a push from Utah, but pulled away in the final minutes to get the first leg of the Mountain Road Trip. They play Colorado on Sunday. Utah and Colorado are 5-1 against visiting opponents in the second leg of the Mountain Road Trip this year, with the lone loss being Utah's loss to Oregon. Cross your fingers for UCLA to lose Sunday, that is our best chance to have a case for a 2-seed.
Though here's the real question...is it better to be the bottom 2 or the top 3? If you're the bottom 2, you have a better shot at one of your top first weekend choices (Des Moines or Columbus for Marquette) but are more likely to end up at MSG if you make it to the Sweet 16. If you're the top-3, you still probably get a similar first weekend choice, but it's more likely you stay in the Midwest (either Louisville or KC).
-
The biggest difference is breaking out those Q1A wins:
Baylor: @ 24 TCU, @26 WVU, N 4 UCLA, N 10 Gonzaga, H 6 Kansas, H 15 Arkansas
Marquette: @ 14 Creighton, H 7 UConn, H 12 Baylor, H 14 Creighton
The two true road games and two neutral court wins really stand out. Especially since they have three top-10 wins (2 away from home) to our one.
If we're going to get a 2-seed, I think the team we are more likely to pass is UCLA. If they slip up on the Mountain Road Trip (at Utah tonight, at Colorado Sunday) and lose their finale at home to Arizona, our high-end wins and their general struggles with tourney level competition might allow us to get ahead of them, despite a strong metric advantage for the Bruins. Especially if there's any regular season conference champion boost given.
I don’t disagree with your analysis or conclusion, but if it ever came down to drilling that deep to choose between Baylor or MU, the head to head game would stand out too.
-
of course i'd rather have a #2 seed, aww what the hell, yeah a #1, but i'm good with a #3 and think we could really kick some ass from there. we are largely in charge of our own destiny
-
We can’t forget our history as a 3 seed in a year ending in 3
2003- final four
2013- elite 8
2023- national champs
-
We can’t forget our history as a 3 seed in a year ending in 3
2003- final four
2013- elite 8
2023- national champs
This is awesome. Would love to see this!
-
We can’t forget our history as a 3 seed in a year ending in 3
2003- final four
2013- elite 8
2023- national champs
Damn the 94 team could've really made this a trend if they had gotten their crap together a year earlier.
-
I really think the impact of what UW and Miss State do, and the margin of victory in the last 3 games , is extremely small. Those things get pretty diluted as the number of games played approaches 30.
I think winning the BET, combined with multiple losses from a couple of the teams not far ahead, might be the only way for MU to move up to the 2 seed line.
But, for the reasons I’ve given before, I don’t think being number 7-8, as opposed to number 9-10, on the seed list makes that much difference in terms of MU’s ability to advance in the NCAA. I just want them to avoid bad losses that would drop them down.
Hard to say, but I think three one point victories in our last three games drops us to a four seed.
-
I don’t necessarily agree, but winning by one point 3 games in a row is am extreme example and a far cry from having to beat the expected victory margin in games in which MU will be clear favorites.