[Cracked Sidewalks] We are what we are?

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

We are what we are?
Recruiting for the freshman class of 2008 could not be more disappointing of late. After the fast start more than a year ago -- an early commitment from the talented Nick Williams -- MU has gone o-fer its top targets. The promise of landing a breakthrough, national recruiting class has quickly given way to doubt, frustration, and resignation about the appeal and status of the program.

The status quo remains. MU will continue to be a successful program built on the backs of the unheralded, the under-recruited, the ignored, the occasional recruiting coup, and the overachiever.

Not long ago a class of Frank Ben-Eze, Iman Shumpert, Jared Swopshire (or similar) and Nick Williams seemed plausible. After all, Crean was selling a starting center opportunity (but lost Ben-Eze), a likely starting PG slot (but lost Shumpert), and perhaps a starting SF slot (but lost Swopshire, among others).

As if on cue, when this class' bellwether target committed to Georgia Tech last week MU accepted a verbal from a player who previously pledged to a mediocre program in the Sun Belt Conference. Keep in mind, this is a player who has yet to visit MU, which is exceptionally odd since Crean has cooled on some players during official visits (as a commenter below pointed out). Obviously, Joseph Fulce fits the profile of this program.

There is clearly a recruiting ceiling at Marquette; it has been some two decades since the program lured a legitimate national top-25 player to campus. Sadly, Marquette is not a destination program for the nation's elite prospects. Meanwhile, MU fans watch as Georgetown, Syracuse, and Louisville reload with A-list talent as Crean scrambles for options C, D, E and F.

Some fans will take solace in noting that MU is getting closer on some of these big-time players, but college basketball is not darts. Close means nothing, recruiting is pass/fail. And while MU seems to offer more than a dozen kids in any given class and chases elite prospects all over the place, the payoff remains negligible.

The good news for MU fans is that Tom Crean has figured out how to build and sustain a strong program with these types of players. Crean is a master at finding diamonds in the rough, and has proven himself to be an outstanding evaluator and developer of backcourt talent. These traits will continue to serve MU well as the program matures under his stewardship. And frankly, despite these tough recruiting losses of late the program is still loaded with talent -- although its highest-ceiling talent are now upper classmen.

No offense, but you don't build a top 25 program by playing guys like Hazel, Burke or Cubillan for 30 minutes a night. It is time for a recruiting breakthrough or five. For the 2008 class, let's circle the wagons and hope for the best. Inking Tyshawn Taylor and Chris OTule would be a terrific recovery for MU -- and that is still possible.

Still, the incoming 2009 group just became the most important incoming freshman class since the impressive haul headed by the Three Amigos. Erik Williams seems like a good start, though you have to wonder what the recent overloading at the SF slot means for the uber-talented Jamil Wilson of Racine.

Time for a rebound on the recruiting trail. Maybe a breakthrough?

Well, hope springs eternal.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2007/10/we-are-what-we-are.html

[NotAnAlum]

what can I say but ditto.  I agree 100%.  The problem with diamonds in the rough and betting on over achieving is that you are more likely to "run out of gas".  I think much of Crean's post season problems have been that the teams that go far are able to elevate their games over the reg season.  MU's guys may not be able to do that because they were already getting 100% out of their talent during the reg season.  The one final 4 season you had one guy, D Wade, who had that additional ceiling and used it the second weekend of the tounement.  Otherwise these early toune exits may be more the fault of insufficient talent than problems with Creans post season coaching.

[4everwarriors]

you're preachin' to the choir.

[Daniel]

It is super disappointing that we lost all three.  And I have to wonder why that is.  What makes these guys narrow it down to 3 schools including MU and then book for other programs?  What is it that makes them do that?

I think we have done well with what we have, and I think the remaining stars on our target list should be thinking even more seriously about coming here.  With a couple of polished diamonds, a and a few in the rough, we can soar with the big boys.


Taylor and OTule - come to MU!

[tomcrean4pres]

For some reason as previously stated TC has a problem sealing the deal... he can get us to the door step just not through it... i think we will get one of our top recruits in the next two years (either Jamil Wilson or Evan Anderson) just a hunch though...

[77ncaachamps]

Good read.

Unfortunately for MU, historically winning programs mean jack crap to these guys. Look at St. John's. In the heart of NYC and they can't get recruits to come in and stay.

What also hurts is the tendency for High-Caliber players to gravitate toward each other...call it the "Fab Five" syndrome. Duke, UNC, Zona, UL, and I'm sure GTown now experience these clumps of recruits at one time. It's like when one goes, so goes the other.

I think Crean acknowledged this phenomenon as he has tried to recruit classmates of 5-star/high 4-star preps only to get the short stick and stuck with the lesser talent (read: Nick Williams).

[NYWarrior]

For some reason as previously stated TC has a problem sealing the deal... he can get us to the door step just not through it... i think we will get one of our top recruits in the next two years (either Jamil Wilson or Evan Anderson) just a hunch though...

sure hope so on Wilson and Anderson.  Either would be a tremendous addition to the program - and a shot in the arm for the program nationally.

[bilsu]

I really think part of the problem is not winning NCAA tournament games. We need to get to the sweet 16 this year.

[mu_hilltopper]

Ding ding, bilsu.

Indeed, when you look around, there's a lot of positives .. great facility, bball school only, NBA arena, top 15 attendance, BE conference = playing the big boys, ESPN, occasionally bump into DWade .. 3 NBA recent draftees .. big name coach, high academic standards = we graduate.

On the downside .. Milwaukee's climate and atmosphere, not all kids can handle TC's regimen, and .. lack of recent NCAA success (yikes.  one NCAA with at least one win in 11 seasons.  Heck, we're talking about 15-18 year olds.  Basically MU has had one good year in their eyes.)

[NYWarrior]

Ding ding, bilsu.

Indeed, when you look around, there's a lot of positives .. great facility, bball school only, NBA arena, top 15 attendance, BE conference = playing the big boys, ESPN, occasionally bump into DWade .. 3 NBA recent draftees .. big name coach, high academic standards = we graduate.

On the downside .. Milwaukee's climate and atmosphere, not all kids can handle TC's regimen, and .. lack of recent NCAA success (yikes.  one NCAA with at least one win in 11 seasons.  Heck, we're talking about 15-18 year olds.  Basically MU has had one good year in their eyes.)

nice.  I'll throw one more in ....... turnover on the assistant coaching staff.   Perhaps if TC had greater continuity on his staff, much of the angst over him possibly leaving -- and the negative recruiting that is built around that,  would be less of an issue.......at this point he's been there since the kids he's recruiting were like 8 yrs old - - incredible that its still an issue.  Having a longer tenured staff could help there.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

While I'm disappointed that MU didn't get it's top targets, I'm not terribly concerned (yet).

Obviously MU needs to bring in top talent in order to rise to the next level, however I really believe that in a larger sense some of recruiting is just a numbers game.

If MU heavily recruits 2 "top 25 type players" per class for the next 3 seasons (that's 6 top talent players), they are probably going to land 1 or 2.... which means they are going to miss out on 4 or more.

10 years ago, MU was recruiting against the likes of Dayton, DePaul, SLU, SIU, Bradley, etc. MU landed some guys, and lost some guys.

The past 3 years (and certainly the way next year is shaping up as well) MU has been competing with UNC, GT, UofL, UW, UF, MSU, etc.

Now, I know that there really aren't any "moral victories" in recruiting, but I do think that in order to get top recruits, MU is going to have to lose out on top recruits. It's a numbers game. Recruit 6 or so top 25 guys, and probably land 1 or 2. Obviously we would like to land them all, but that is not realistic (at this point).

Maybe I'm just too optimistic... but I just know that MU is going to keep recruiting top guys... and they are going to miss on the majority of them because that is simply what the numbers indicate.

[ChicosBailBonds]

All good posts.  I guess I would ask the "next question"....could someone else out there do it better?  Would someone else come to MU, put in the time, stay, and do better than the current staff?

I don't see it.  I know some people believe John Wooden is waiting in the wings and biting at the bit to step in.  Others, 4ever being one of them, lists a bunch of has beens or potential up and comers that haven't proven a thing long term.

Yeah, we just lost 3 guys...that's the danger of recruiting so close to the Sun as it were.  Alvarez did the same thing at Madison years ago and kept finishing up bride's maid.

I think you have to keep going with the approach until you breakthrough...my only problem with this entire year is Crittle.  A kid that wanted to come here and "we cooled on him" per IWB and others.  Well, if the kid is good enough to go to Oregon he's good enough to come here.  That was my only problem with this attempt.

Hopefully we land some of the other kids we're recruiting.

[ecompt]

Can people please remember that MU isn't the easiest environment to sell? Bad weather and classes to attend are two things Pitino doesn't have to deal with. That's not letting TC off the hook completely; for $1.whatever million he's expected to pull in a few big fish.

[Henry Sugar]

Great blog entry and solid points all the way around.  I was actually working on a separate post, but this seems like a good enough place as any to enter.

I would actually characterize what we are as "There is clearly a recruiting ceiling at Marquette right now"

Long ago, I read a book by George Leonard that was titled "Mastery: The Keys to Success and Long-Term Fulfillment".  It's been ages since I read the book, but the one thing that stuck with me is the following graph.



The premise of the book is that mastery of any item is based upon long plateaus, followed by a sudden uptick and then a regression down.  Another long plateau then begins at a higher level than before.  The key point, as emphasized by the author, is to focus on the process and doing things the right way, even as what we as humans really desire is results.

This is sort of how I view building a basketball program.  Let's define an uptick as a "long NCAA run or sustainable NCAA success".  Right now, Marquette has already had the initial sudden uptick and regression downward, and now we are on the second, long plateau.  Hopefully, this year will be the year that we have another long, NCAA run or begin sustainable NCAA success.

Now, let's define an uptick as "higher quality recruits".  Again, Marquette has had a couple upticks (three amigos all RCSI top 100) and I would argue that we are sort of at a plateau in recruiting right now.  The loss of Shumpert hurts, because it would have almost certainly resulted in the next breakthrough or uptick.  My brother-in-law and I were practically salivating at the prospect of a lineup with Shumpert in the mix.  Unfortunately, at least from the recruiting perspective, we are still at the plateau.  All we can do is hope that Crean really keeps at the next wave of high level recruits for the eventual uptick in results.

A few final comments.  Recruiting is precisely a results-oriented industry.  A good process counts for sh*t if you can't get the job done.  However, you can't get the job done if you don't have a good process. 

Also, co-sign on the idea that recruiting level is highly correlated with NCAA success.

[mu_hilltopper]

I'd say we define an uptick as winning game(s) in the NCAAs. 

Recruiting is just a lagging indicator of what's to come for the end-goal: NCAA wins.

(Admittedly, a weak lagging indicator, but certainly a factor, combined with coaching.)

[Henry Sugar]

Recruiting is just a lagging indicator of what's to come for the end-goal: NCAA wins.

(Admittedly, a weak lagging indicator, but certainly a factor, combined with coaching.)

Splitting hairs, but I disagree.  I think that recruiting upticks are separate from NCAA win upticks.  I think that they're two separate factors that are fairly highly correlated.

Totally agree that this all boils down to the end goal of NCAA wins.

[NYWarrior]

Can people please remember that MU isn't the easiest environment to sell? Bad weather and classes to attend are two things Pitino doesn't have to deal with. That's not letting TC off the hook completely; for $1.whatever million he's expected to pull in a few big fish.

No doubt.......its just incredibly frustrating to miss on your top targets across the board, regardless of national ranking.   Ben-Eze, while not as highly ranked as Shumpert, was a much bigger loss IMHO. 

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

Part of what makes Crean a successful coach, I believe, is what makes him an average (at best) recruiter. His personality. After a lot of hard work to get on these guys' short lists, they end up weighing playing for Crean vs. playing for Paul Hewitt, Roy Williams, Rick Pitino, even Bob Huggins.

It's not Milwaukee they're rejecting.

[Coobeys Oil Depot]

Part of what makes Crean a successful coach, I believe, is what makes him an average (at best) recruiter. His personality. After a lot of hard work to get on these guys' short lists, they end up weighing playing for Crean vs. playing for Paul Hewitt, Roy Williams, Rick Pitino, even Bob Huggins.

It's not Milwaukee they're rejecting.

Perhaps. I just don't see why a kid would keep MU in his top 3 for months only to reject Crean at the end. It's not like Crean can hide the enthusiasm. If a kid is not rejecting Milwaukee and in fact rejecting Crean (inferring from your sentence) why not do it straight away and save the hassle rather then keep interest until the end? I can't imagine after all that time knowing Crean that FBE, Shumpert, Swopshire, et al. would suddenly at the end decide against him. They would do it before it got to that point.

As for the assistant coach turnover this is an important issue. However, I also think it's bloated for MU people. Louisville has had much uproar over their coaching ranks and recruiting seems on the same level. Georgetown just lost their entire staff in the last 6 months and JTIII landed the best prospect in the country. AC turnover didn't seem to hurt that one.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Part of what makes Crean a successful coach, I believe, is what makes him an average (at best) recruiter. His personality. After a lot of hard work to get on these guys' short lists, they end up weighing playing for Crean vs. playing for Paul Hewitt, Roy Williams, Rick Pitino, even Bob Huggins.

It's not Milwaukee they're rejecting.

You might be right, but we really don't know why they aren't coming to MU, and it's probably a combination of things.

Could be campus, city, facilities, classes, teammates, dorms, food, school colors, girls, etc.

These are 18yr old kids and their parents that you are dealing with, so you never know what the wild card really is. Where to go to school is a very personal decision.

The poll you performed before was interesting, but also stated: "All things being equal". In the real world, not all things are equal for any given recruit, and that is why we don't really know why MU has missed on some of these kids (could be Crean as you stated, but it's most likely the entire mix of things at MU)

At the end of the day, we are obviously looking for results, but I really like Henry Sugar's post with the graph. I think that is right on with where MU is at.

[ChicosBailBonds]

For some reason as previously stated TC has a problem sealing the deal... he can get us to the door step just not through it... i think we will get one of our top recruits in the next two years (either Jamil Wilson or Evan Anderson) just a hunch though...

I'm not really sure what this means.  He has closed the deal on plenty of top 100 kids

Merritt
Diener
James
Matthews
Mkwabe
McNeal
Novak
etc

Certainly some that he hasn't.

I'm going to enjoy this upcoming season because we should have a terrific club, as deep as we have been in arguably 2 decades.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Part of what makes Crean a successful coach, I believe, is what makes him an average (at best) recruiter. His personality. After a lot of hard work to get on these guys' short lists, they end up weighing playing for Crean vs. playing for Paul Hewitt, Roy Williams, Rick Pitino, even Bob Huggins.

It's not Milwaukee they're rejecting.

Again, I ask you to talk to Diener, Wade, Novak, etc to see if you know what you are talking about.

[NotAnAlum]

I may get banded for saying this but as long as we are brainstorming for a reason as to why we get so close but not all the way could it have anything to do with the fact that we don't have a black coach or promenent first assistant?  I've got to believe that has something to do with Thompson's success at G-town.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

Part of what makes Crean a successful coach, I believe, is what makes him an average (at best) recruiter. His personality. After a lot of hard work to get on these guys' short lists, they end up weighing playing for Crean vs. playing for Paul Hewitt, Roy Williams, Rick Pitino, even Bob Huggins.

It's not Milwaukee they're rejecting.

Again, I ask you to talk to Diener, Wade, Novak, etc to see if you know what you are talking about.

Not sure I see your reasoning. Are you saying Diener, Wade and Novak would be familiar with the reasons our top target recruits are rejecting us to play elsewhere?

I fully understand that those three came to MU and enjoyed success. The question is, why aren't other recruits? Why are we losing players so consistently? Why are we being forced to accept marginal students, JC transfers and players our head coach has never even seen play?

Really, the only player we've signed recently where we honestly had to beat out a top notch competitor was Matthews, and much of his decision was based on the desire to separate himself from his father's legacy. Heck, even Notre Dame has outrecruited us recently and I think MU has a much better basketball program.

Chicos -- there's a reason these kids are saying no. I obviously don't know why, but
I have suspicions.

[Henry Sugar]

Part of what makes Crean a successful coach, I believe, is what makes him an average (at best) recruiter. His personality. After a lot of hard work to get on these guys' short lists, they end up weighing playing for Crean vs. playing for Paul Hewitt, Roy Williams, Rick Pitino, even Bob Huggins.

It's not Milwaukee they're rejecting.  This is called projecting.

Sigmund Freud'd again'd