Another year no NCAA tournament....no reason to play this year

[Babybluejeans]

I thought it would be interesting to actually compare Lunardi's August 5 pre-season projection last year (the earliest I saw posted at the ESPN site) to the actual tournament field.

It turns out he does a decent job picking the field (if not the exact seed) for the first 12 seeds, and terrible for seeds 13-16. Two teams he picked became ineligible for the tournament subsequent to his 8/5 projection and likely would have made the tournament (SMU and Louisville), so I don't know if you can fault him for that..

I guess people can quibble over projecting Villanova a 3 seed and seeing them finish as a #1, or picking Kentucky as a #1 only to have them a #4 in the tournament, and so forth.  I wouldn't view that as a huge miss--I'll give him credit for being directionally correct making a projection seven months down the line.
 
Draw your own conclusions:

Lunardi's 8/5 seed		Actual NCAA seed
1	UNC	1
1	Kentucky	4
1	Kansas	1
1	Maryland	5
2	Virgina	1
2	Iowa State	4
2	Oklahoma	2
2	Duke	4
3	Villanova	1
3	Indiana	5
3	Gonzaga	11
3	Wichita State	11
4	Wisconsin	7
4	Michigan State	2
4	Arizona	6
4	California	4
5	LSU	out
5	ND	6
5	SMU	out*
5	Louisville	out*
6	Michigan	11
6	Georgetown	out
6	Baylor	5
6	Utah	3
7	Butler	9
7	Texas A&M	3
7	Miami	3
7	NC State	out
8	Texas	6
8	Cincy	9
8	Purdue	5
8	WVU	3
9	UCLA	Out
9	Xavier	2
9	Fla State	Out
9	Vanderbilt	11
10	SDSU	out
10	Dayton	7
10	UCOnn	9
10	Oregon	1
11	Syr	10
11	Georgia/URI	out/out
11	MU	out
11	Tulsa	11
12	ODU	out
12	Buffal	14
12	SF Austin	14
12	Arkansas/Ore St	out/7
13	Yale	12
13	Murray State	out
13	Valpo	out
13	Iona	out
14	Wofford	out
14	LaLa	out
14	EWU	out
14	UC Irvine	out
15	Vermont	out
15	SDSU	out
15	NM State	out
15	Hofstra	out
16	Hampton/Lehigh	16
16	RM/Tex Southern	out/out
16	High Point	out
16	UNF	out

This is interesting, thanks for collecting. Getting 44 out of the 52 major conference spots (seeds 1-12, understanding there may be a couple powers that get lower seeds) is pretty damn good given the prediction was 7 months before Selection Sunday. What does it prove? Not much, of course. But it does underscore what we already know: our team, on paper, is fighting an uphill battle to land in the Dance. It will require some Wojo coaching magic to disprove, and that's why I'm looking forward to seeing this season play out--can Wojo wring talent and high-level performance out of a team that probably shouldn't make the Dance?

[Jay Bee]

It turns out he does a decent job picking the field (if not the exact seed) for the first 12 seeds, and terrible for seeds 13-16. Two teams he picked became ineligible for the tournament subsequent to his 8/5 projection and likely would have made the tournament (SMU and Louisville), so I don't know if you can fault him for that..

I think most years anyone with no knowledge of college basketball, but just a few simple guidelines and next season's projected standings would do about the same.

What annoys me is the stuff in season that is so off (like I said... take January 18... first bracket, Lunardi doesn't have Iowa in at all.. then January 18 they're a 2 seed?... Feb 22.. still a 2 seed! March 2.. down to a 5!)  He's fine at chasing down what has actually occurred, like anyone can do. Impressive projections? Nah. Just water cooler talk for small minds.

[wadesworld]

I think most years anyone with no knowledge of college basketball, but just a few simple guidelines and next season's projected standings would do about the same.

What annoys me is the stuff in season that is so off (like I said... take January 18... first bracket, Lunardi doesn't have Iowa in at all.. then January 18 they're a 2 seed?... Feb 22.. still a 2 seed! March 2.. down to a 5!)  He's fine at chasing down what has actually occurred, like anyone can do. Impressive projections? Nah. Just water cooler talk for small minds.

Honest question: why do you care?

[ChicosBailBonds]

I think most years anyone with no knowledge of college basketball, but just a few simple guidelines and next season's projected standings would do about the same.

What annoys me is the stuff in season that is so off (like I said... take January 18... first bracket, Lunardi doesn't have Iowa in at all.. then January 18 they're a 2 seed?... Feb 22.. still a 2 seed! March 2.. down to a 5!)  He's fine at chasing down what has actually occurred, like anyone can do. Impressive projections? Nah. Just water cooler talk for small minds.

Or just water talk during the off-season and nothing more.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I am assuming Georgetown did not lose any of the non seniors to transfer. They started out very strong last year and than crashed largely due to injuries. White was out the whole year with an injury. I like Govan. They should have a very good frontline. They are the opposite of MU in that their team has numerous frontline players and not a lot of guards. They lost Smith-Rivera, but I was not impressed with him. He disappeared a lot during games and then at the end of games would try to do to much.

I don't know about them being derailed by injuries. There was only two, Paul White who I don't think is very good, and Bradley Hayes who was out for six games long after their season went to crap. You other comments are fair but I don't think you've looked at the entire picture. Every team in the Big East but Providence and possibly Butler is going to be better this season. I'd consider Villanova, Xavier, Creighton, and Seton Hall almost to be locks for the top 4 spots. Butler, Georgetown, and Marquette will be in a dog fight for spots 5 and 6. Number 7 gets left out.

I share your dislike of DSR but he was still a helluva a player. They also lose Bradley Hayes who turned out to be a solid player last season. They bring in Rodney Pryor who will help make up a lot of DSR's scoring. But they are really shallow at guard. They will be relying on either a not very good Tre Campbell or JUCO transfer Jonathan Mulmore to run the point. They will be better than they were last year. But I don't think by enough to get into the top 5 in conference let alone top 3.

[Jay Bee]

Honest question: why do you care?

Annoyed by how often I hear / see about it. In the grand scheme of things, not a big deal. It's annoying, so I point out that it's annoying to me.

[wadesworld]

Annoyed by how often I hear / see about it. In the grand scheme of things, not a big deal. It's annoying, so I point out that it's annoying to me.

Fair enough.

[bilsu]

I don't know about them being derailed by injuries. There was only two, Paul White who I don't think is very good, and Bradley Hayes who was out for six games long after their season went to crap. You other comments are fair but I don't think you've looked at the entire picture. Every team in the Big East but Providence and possibly Butler is going to be better this season. I'd consider Villanova, Xavier, Creighton, and Seton Hall almost to be locks for the top 4 spots. Butler, Georgetown, and Marquette will be in a dog fight for spots 5 and 6. Number 7 gets left out.

I share your dislike of DSR but he was still a helluva a player. They also lose Bradley Hayes who turned out to be a solid player last season. They bring in Rodney Pryor who will help make up a lot of DSR's scoring. But they are really shallow at guard. They will be relying on either a not very good Tre Campbell or JUCO transfer Jonathan Mulmore to run the point. They will be better than they were last year. But I don't think by enough to get into the top 5 in conference let alone top 3.

Paul White played in all 33 games as a freshmen on a team that made the round of 32. He averaged 5.0 pts and 2.8 rbs in 18 minutes per game. Those are good numbers for a freshmen coming off the bench. Guards can be a problem for Georgetown next year, but I disagree that the Big East will be better next year. There is no way the Big East gets get 6 bids. The Big East had five bids last year and the 6th team was not close to getting a bid.

[Marcus92]

Every team in the Big East but Providence and possibly Butler is going to be better this season. I'd consider Villanova, Xavier, Creighton, and Seton Hall almost to be locks for the top 4 spots. Butler, Georgetown, and Marquette will be in a dog fight for spots 5 and 6. Number 7 gets left out.

Based on last season, getting to 5th place or better in the Big East means we need to improve by 2 games in the conference standings — finishing at least 10-8 instead of 8-10.

So where do those 2 wins come from?

For starters, we can't afford to split any series with the worst teams. We need 4 wins against St. John's and DePaul, not 3. We also can't afford to go winless against the best teams; we went 0-for-6 versus Nova, Xavier and Seton Hall. Get at least 1 win against those 3 schools — at home, on the road, I don't care.

If the rest of the season plays out exactly the same as last year — posting a 5-3 record against Butler, Creighton, Georgetown and Providence — we're at 10-8 and in contention for a tourney invite.

Obviously, that's a highly simplified scenario. It doesn't take into account our non-conference schedule. Injuries at key positions (like center) could throw a gigantic wrench in the works. And, perhaps most important, it assumes that with more experience and overall depth, we're a better team than a year ago — one that's improved at least as much as other Big East teams (particularly those from #4 through #8), if not more.

Personally, I'd prefer that the experts and other coaches pick us for the bottom half of the Big East. If we're going to make the postseason, this team needs to be hungry. We've got to be more consistent, better making decisions, better from the perimeter, better protecting the ball, better on the boards, better on defense.

But I think we've got a pretty good shot. Can't wait for the season to start.

[Herman Cain]

But he had Providence in first 4 out, which puts us back in 7-10 range.

I didn't see that. So 7 it is.

[Lennys Tap]

Every team in the Big East but Providence and possibly Butler is going to be better this season.

Maybe on paper, but do you really think Villanova will be better than 35-5, national champs and a final #1 ranking? I'll bet against that.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chicas and Waldo Jeffers should meet up. They would have lots to talk about.

[4everwarriors]

Too bad Crean didn't build dat soccer complex. I could see da sport bein' real popular, hey?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

but I disagree that the Big East will be better next year. There is no way the Big East gets get 6 bids.

I'm curious what analysis you are basing that on. Because while my analysis isn't 100% complete, it says the exact opposite so far. Just a tidbit, high major teams are losing on average 51% of their production from last season (points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, FGM, 3PM). The Big East however is only losing 39% of its production this offseason. That's a massive difference. One that screams, the Big East will be a tougher conference next season. Not only that, but by eyeballing it, the Big East has the best incoming transfers of any conference in the country (who usually have a much more immediate impact the freshman). Eric Paschall of Villanova, RaShid Gaston of Xavier, Marcus Foster of Creighton, Jevon Thomas of Seton Hall, Kethan Savage/Avery Woodson of Butler, Rodney Pryor/Akoy Agau of Georgetown, Katin Reinhardt/Andrew Rowsey of Marquette, Isaiah Jackson of Providence, Chris Harrison-Docks of Depaul, Tariq Owens of St. John's. That is the best group of transfers that any conference has this year.

I spoke to a friend in the sports media business about a month ago. He projected that the Big East would have 8 top 50 teams next year. Not in terms of RPI/KP because the conference would cannibalize itself, but in terms of objective ranking of the talent teams have. Now that was before Ben Bentil made his decision permenant so I assume Providence has dropped out of that group. But that's stil 7 top 50 teams.

So if you have some analysis to offer that counteracts the reaserach I've done, I'd love to hear it. Otherwise, rejoice brother Bilsu, you don't have to be a self hating Big East fan. Because we will have one of the toughest, if not the toughest, basketball conferences next season.

[Herman Cain]

I'm curious what analysis you are basing that on. Because while my analysis isn't 100% complete, it says the exact opposite so far. Just a tidbit, high major teams are losing on average 51% of their production from last season (points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, FGM, 3PM). The Big East however is only losing 39% of its production this offseason. That's a massive difference. One that screams, the Big East will be a tougher conference next season. Not only that, but by eyeballing it, the Big East has the best incoming transfers of any conference in the country (who usually have a much more immediate impact the freshman). Eric Paschall of Villanova, RaShid Gaston of Xavier, Marcus Foster of Creighton, Jevon Thomas of Seton Hall, Kethan Savage/Avery Woodson of Butler, Rodney Pryor/Akoy Agau of Georgetown, Katin Reinhardt/Andrew Rowsey of Marquette, Isaiah Jackson of Providence, Chris Harrison-Docks of Depaul, Tariq Owens of St. John's. That is the best group of transfers that any conference has this year.

I spoke to a friend in the sports media business about a month ago. He projected that the Big East would have 8 top 50 teams next year. Not in terms of RPI/KP because the conference would cannibalize itself, but in terms of objective ranking of the talent teams have. Now that was before Ben Bentil made his decision permenant so I assume Providence has dropped out of that group. But that's stil 7 top 50 teams.

So if you have some analysis to offer that counteracts the reaserach I've done, I'd love to hear it. Otherwise, rejoice brother Bilsu, you don't have to be a self hating Big East fan. Because we will have one of the toughest, if not the toughest, basketball conferences next season.

I agree with this analysis.

[wadesworld]

Too bad Crean didn't build dat soccer complex. I could see da sport bein' real popular, hey?

Outstanding.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Maybe on paper, but do you really think Villanova will be better than 35-5, national champs and a final #1 ranking? I'll bet against that.

From an objective talent standpoint, yes absolutely. They only lose two starters but retain all of their bench players, their best player in Josh Hart, and add a fantastic transfer in Eric Paschall, a 5 star freshman in Omari Spellman, Donte DiVicenzo comes back from injury, Tim Delaney comes off a redshirt season, and they add a solid four star freshman. Will they repeat as national champions? Probably not. But as I'm sure you've heard its a crapshoot. They might even have a worse record than last year because their competition in the Big East is going to be a lot stiffer. But the 16-17 Villanova squad would beat the 15-16 Villanova squad more times than not.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We also can't afford to go winless against the best teams; we went 0-for-6 versus Nova, Xavier and Seton Hall. Get at least 1 win against those 3 schools — at home, on the road, I don't care.

One of the nice things about our roster next year is that we have the firepower to absolutely go off on a team. On the right night, we could beat anyone in the country. But we also have the ability to flop and drop a game to Depaul or St. John's (both of whom will be better next season).

[Nukem2]

One of the nice things about our roster next year is that we have the firepower to absolutely go off on a team. On the right night, we could beat anyone in the country. But we also have the ability to flop and drop a game to Depaul or St. John's (both of whom will be better next season).

The one thing that strikes me about this MU team is that it is not  a particularly quick team for a team that will be so perimeter oriented (not like that Mizzou team a few years ago).  Also, not a very physical team.  This will be a team relying a lot on offensive firepower and aggressive defense relying on its depth on the perimeter.

[bilsu]

I'm curious what analysis you are basing that on. Because while my analysis isn't 100% complete, it says the exact opposite so far. Just a tidbit, high major teams are losing on average 51% of their production from last season (points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, FGM, 3PM). The Big East however is only losing 39% of its production this offseason. That's a massive difference. One that screams, the Big East will be a tougher conference next season. Not only that, but by eyeballing it, the Big East has the best incoming transfers of any conference in the country (who usually have a much more immediate impact the freshman). Eric Paschall of Villanova, RaShid Gaston of Xavier, Marcus Foster of Creighton, Jevon Thomas of Seton Hall, Kethan Savage/Avery Woodson of Butler, Rodney Pryor/Akoy Agau of Georgetown, Katin Reinhardt/Andrew Rowsey of Marquette, Isaiah Jackson of Providence, Chris Harrison-Docks of Depaul, Tariq Owens of St. John's. That is the best group of transfers that any conference has this year.

I spoke to a friend in the sports media business about a month ago. He projected that the Big East would have 8 top 50 teams next year. Not in terms of RPI/KP because the conference would cannibalize itself, but in terms of objective ranking of the talent teams have. Now that was before Ben Bentil made his decision permenant so I assume Providence has dropped out of that group. But that's stil 7 top 50 teams.

So if you have some analysis to offer that counteracts the reaserach I've done, I'd love to hear it. Otherwise, rejoice brother Bilsu, you don't have to be a self hating Big East fan. Because we will have one of the toughest, if not the toughest, basketball conferences next season.

Well it is more of a feeling. Last year went very well for the Big East. Conference strength is mostly based on non-conference wins. I believe Villanova and Xavier are top 10 teams. After that all bets are off. Seton Hall will greatly miss Whitehead. Creighton like MU will be very good when they are hitting threes, but when they are not they are not likely to win a team against a good team. Providence had two great players last year and they are gone. Maybe St. John's and DePaul will be better than last year, but they will not be good enough to matter. The way I see it
Villanova 2015 better than 2016
Xavier 2016 better than 2015
Seton Hall 2015 better than 2016
Providence 2015 better than 2016
Butler 2015 better than 2016
Creighton 2016 better than 2015
Georgetown 2016 better than 2015
St John's 2016 better than 2015
DePaul 2016 better than 2015
The last two are based on the assumption that they cannot be worse.
So without MU that is 5 better and 4 worse and two of the better (DePaul & St. John's) will not matter. However, let's say they are the bottom 2 again and they combine for 6 wins instead of 4. That takes two wins away from the other 8 teams and those could be critical wins.  I do not see the 3rd, 4th & 5th best teams as being as good as last year's equivalent and that is the reason why I do not think the Big East will be better. Again it is just my feeling. What you wrote makes sense, but how the non-conference schedule plays out will be what matters most as that has a big effect on how many conference teams get NCAA bids. Last year MU went 11-2 in non-conference. They should be playing a tougher non-conference schedule this year (at least I hope so), so even if they are a better team they may not win 11 non-conference games. On the flip side Georgetown played a strong non-conference schedule and put themselves behind the 8 ball. The funny thing is that they both beat Wisconsin, but otherwise they came out of the non-conference season needing to perform extremely well in the conference games. One other thing is that only (if my memory serves me right) only Villanova made the Sweet 16 last year and that to me means we only had one really good team. Xavier giving that game away to Wisconsin really sucked. As far as MU I could see them being better as they will have more experience and will not be centered around one player, but on the other hand that one player was really special, so I could also see them being worse. The one way I feel we will be better is that we will have a chance to beat every team in the conference, because of three point shooting. When we are hot we will be able to beat any team. By the way I do not hate the Big East, it is more the way I look at things. 30 years ago I would have been more optimistic, but at my age I seen too many times where things do not go as I hoped. I hope Reinhardt can play power forward, but realistically is he a viable option there? I will tell you this, if Howard is good enough to win the starting point guard spot then I will be really excited about our NCAA chances.

[CTWarrior]

One other thing is that only (if my memory serves me right) only Villanova made the Sweet 16 last year and that to me means we only had one really good team. Xavier giving that game away to Wisconsin really sucked.

Largely agree with your post, but I think Xavier and Seton Hall were really top-notch teams at the end of last season who both picked a bad time to deliver a clunker, so I think we had three really good teams, but only one that played like it.

[Lennys Tap]

From an objective talent standpoint, yes absolutely. They only lose two starters but retain all of their bench players, their best player in Josh Hart, and add a fantastic transfer in Eric Paschall, a 5 star freshman in Omari Spellman, Donte DiVicenzo comes back from injury, Tim Delaney comes off a redshirt season, and they add a solid four star freshman. Will they repeat as national champions? Probably not. But as I'm sure you've heard its a crapshoot. They might even have a worse record than last year because their competition in the Big East is going to be a lot stiffer. But the 16-17 Villanova squad would beat the 15-16 Villanova squad more times than not.

Villanova's title was anything but a crapshoot. It was the most dominant tournament run (by a mile) since Pomeroy came into existence 15 years ago. They won by 30 in round one, led by 35 against Iowa before taking their foot off the gas and cruising by 19. They then stomped #3 seed Miami by 23. They had their one poor shooting game of the tourney vs #1 seed Kansas and still won by 5. Crushed #2 seed Oklahoma by 44 in the semis. They only won by 3 in the championship game but that's because N Carolina (a poor 3 point shooting team) was 11-17 from beyond the arc. If they shoot their usual % Nova wins by 15-20.

Maybe Nova is better next year "on paper". The chance that they're better on the basketball court are close to zero.

[Stretchdeltsig]

Marquette will be better than you think.  Just like the NBA is trending to smaller, faster, shooting teams, Marquette will surprise many teams this year with its ability to make threes and have a high scoring games.  I am bullish that we will compete at a high level and make the NCAA tournament.

[Nukem2]

Villanova's title was anything but a crapshoot. It was the most dominant tournament run (by a mile) since Pomeroy came into existence 15 years ago. They won by 30 in round one, led by 35 against Iowa before taking their foot off the gas and cruising by 19. They then stomped #3 seed Miami by 23. They had their one poor shooting game of the tourney vs #1 seed Kansas and still won by 5. Crushed #2 seed Oklahoma by 44 in the semis. They only won by 3 in the championship game but that's because N Carolina (a poor 3 point shooting team) was 11-17 from beyond the arc. If they shoot their usual % Nova wins by 15-20.

Maybe Nova is better next year "on paper". The chance that they're better on the basketball court are close to zero.

Yes, Nova will be very good.  but, it would be hard to have the same chemistry and effectiveness it had with Archie and Ochefu at PG/C this past season.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Villanova 2015 better than 2016
Xavier 2016 better than 2015
Seton Hall 2015 better than 2016
Providence 2015 better than 2016
Butler 2015 better than 2016
Creighton 2016 better than 2015
Georgetown 2016 better than 2015
St John's 2016 better than 2015
DePaul 2016 better than 2015

Let me help your feelings with some facts.

Villanova: Loses 28% of its production (keep in mind high major average is 51%), adds Eric Paschall (15.9 ppg and 5.5 rpg for Fordam in 14-15), Omari Spellman (5 star freshman), Donte DiVincenzo (bench player that missed 32 games due to injury), Tim Delaney (3 star PF coming off redshirt), and Dylan Painter (4 star freshman).

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

Xavier: Loses 37% of its production, adds RaShid Gaston (15.5 ppg and 9.6 rpg for Norfolk state in 14-15), Quentin Goodin (4 star freshman), Tyrique Jones (4 star freshman), and Eddie Ekiyor (3 star freshman)

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

Creighton: Loses 29% of its production, adds Marcus Foster (12.5 ppg and .347 3P% for Kansas State in 14-15), Justin Patton (4 star PF coming off redshirt), Martin Krampelj (bench player returning from a 28 game injury), and Davion Mintz (3 star freshman).

Note: Similar to Marquette, played an awful schedule for RPI last season. Was a top 40 team in KenPom.

Conclusion: 16-17 team significantly better than 15-16 team

Seton Hall: Loses 35% of its production, adds Jevon Thomas (4.5 ppg and 3.3 apg for Kansas State in 14-15), Myles Powell (4 star freshman), and Eron Gordon (3.5 star freshman).

Conclusion: 16-17 team slightly better than 15-16 team

Butler: Loses 49% of its production, adds Kethan Savaga (11.7 ppg and 4.8 rpg for George Washington in 14-15), Avery Woodson (9.6 ppg and .430 3P% for Memphis in 15-16), Joey Brunk (4 star freshman), Kamar Badlwin (3 star freshman) Sean McDermott (3 star SG coming off redshirt), and Henry Baddley (3 star freshman)

Conclusion: 16-17 team similar to or slightly worse than 15-16 team

Georgetown: Loses 32% of its production, adds Rodney Pryor (18.0 ppg and 8.0 rpg for Robert Morris in 15-16), Akoy Agau (0.9 ppg and 1.1 rpg for Louisville in 13-14), Paul White (bench player returning from 26 game injury), Jagan Mosley (3 star freshman), Jonathan Mulmore (juco PG), George Muresan (unranked freshman)

Notes: Played a poor RPI schedule, was ranked in the top 60 by KenPom

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

Marquette: Loses 25% of its production, adds Katin Reinhardt (11.4 ppg and .373 3P% for USC in 15-16), Andrew Rowsey (19.2 ppg and .382 3P% for UNC Asheville in 14-15), Markus Howard (4 star freshman), and Sam Hauser (4 star freshman).

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

Providence: Loses 58% of its production, adds Isaiah Jackson (8.7 ppg and .356 3P% for George Mason in 14-15), Alpha Diallo (4 star freshman), Maliek White (3 star freshman),  Kalif Young (3 star freshman), and Emmitt Holt (JUCO PF)

Conclusion: 15-16 team better than 16-17 team

Depaul: Loses 40% of its production, adds Chris Harrison-Docks (10.0 ppg and .380 3P% for Western Kentucky in 15-16), Brandon Cyrus (3 star freshman), Levi Cook (3 star freshman), Algevon Eichelberger (3 star freshman), and Devin Gage (3 star freshman).

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

St. John's: Loses 58% of its production, adds Bashir Ahmed (#2 ranked JUCO), Shamorie Ponds (4 star freshman), Richard Freudenberg (4 star freshman), Tariq Owens (1.2 ppg and 1.1 rpg for Tennessee in 14-15).

Conclusion: 16-17 team better than 15-16 team

There's some oversimplification here, and I'm not sharing everything, but the facts point to 8/10 of the teams in Big East improving from last season. Of the remaining 2, one will be around the same level they were last season.

You can't look at teams in a vacuum. You have to look at whats happening in the entirety of college basketball. Remember how everyone kept commenting that the good teams were all senior heavy last season? That was true, everywhere but the Big East. All those senior stars are graduating while the Big East stars are getting a year older and better. Yeah a few stars like DSR, Henry Ellenson, and Isaiah Whitehead are leaving, but they are basically the only players of significance leaving from their respective teams. Their production will be easily replaced. Providence and Butler each lose two huge stars and they will take a step back as a result. Only 2 Big East teams are above the high major average for production lost (Providence and St. John's).

Big East will be a BEast next season. Great for the conference, bad for Marquette unfortunately. I think we might end up being that 7th team.

One other thing is that only (if my memory serves me right) only Villanova made the Sweet 16 last year and that to me means we only had one really good team.

C'mon man. You can't judge a season based on a team does in a few tournament games. You judge based on a season. And last season showed three great teams, two very good teams, three good teams (who all had RPI scheduling issues), and two very bad teams. There's a reason the Big East had such a dominant non-conference season.