Explosions in Kiev

[forgetful]

There's also the weird dynamic of negotiating this Iran deal with Russia. 

The Iran one is weird because it sounds like they have a deal all sides can live with except we'll 'um Russia. 

I was unaware of this aspect, but reading up on it, it does make some sense that they are included in negotiations.

It appears Russia is essential for the collection and conversion of nuclear materials, and conversion of a nuclear facility that could be used for weapons, to one for research only.

By that alone, they kind of need to be part of the negotiations.

Their request/demand is also not that unusual, but extremely awkward. They want written assurance, that trade between Iran and Russia will not be subject to current Ukraine sanctions. Essentially saying Iran cannot be punished for trading with Russia.

Super awkward, because the motivating force of the renewed Iran deal is to cut off Russia...but apparently Russia is essential to any deal being done...so why would they take part in a deal that asks them to play an essential role, but also hurts them. Very weird scenario.

[Hards Alumni]

An argument can be made that without China, the US economy would crumble. The two economies are intricately connected.

100%  They're in an economically symbiotic relationship. 

[JWags85]

An argument can be made that without China, the US economy would crumble. The two economies are intricately connected.

Ehh depends. I think the amount of US debt that China owns factors, but if you remove the cheap manufacturing from China, costs rise and there would be shock in the production/logistic channels, but the economy wouldn’t crumble. There are alternatives.

[Skatastrophy]

100%  They're in an economically symbiotic relationship. 

It is the best way to cultivate a lasting peace with an adversary. Germany tried this with Russia, too, leading to dependence on RU for gas/energy.

It doesn't always work, but it builds a common ground from which to form a relationship.

Edit: I said "best way" and I'm talking out of my ass on that one with regards to foreign policy. It's one of the ways, and it works well in business.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

MiG 29s from Poland to Ukraine, F-16s from U.S. to Poland for repayment, supposedly.

Blinken says NATO countries have "green light" to send fighter jets to Ukraine
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-fighter-jets-antony-blinken-face-the-nation/

Washington — Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that NATO members have the go-ahead to send fighter jets to Ukraine as the U.S. and allies continue their efforts to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia's invasion.

"That gets a green-light," Blinken said in an interview with "Face the Nation" when asked whether the Polish government, a member of NATO, could send fighter planes to Ukraine. "In fact, we're talking with our Polish friends right now about what we might be able to do to backfill their needs if in fact they choose to provide these fighter jets to the Ukrainians. What can we do? How can we help to make sure that they get something to backfill the planes that they are handing over to the Ukrainians?"

A White House spokesperson told CBS News the Biden administration is evaluating the capabilities it could provide to backfill jets to Poland if it decided to transfer planes to Ukraine but noted there are several questions that arise from a decision to do so, including how the jets could be transferred from Poland to Ukraine.

[Hards Alumni]

MiG 29s from Poland to Ukraine, F-16s from U.S. to Poland for repayment, supposedly.

Blinken says NATO countries have "green light" to send fighter jets to Ukraine
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-fighter-jets-antony-blinken-face-the-nation/

Washington — Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Sunday that NATO members have the go-ahead to send fighter jets to Ukraine as the U.S. and allies continue their efforts to help Ukraine defend itself against Russia's invasion.

"That gets a green-light," Blinken said in an interview with "Face the Nation" when asked whether the Polish government, a member of NATO, could send fighter planes to Ukraine. "In fact, we're talking with our Polish friends right now about what we might be able to do to backfill their needs if in fact they choose to provide these fighter jets to the Ukrainians. What can we do? How can we help to make sure that they get something to backfill the planes that they are handing over to the Ukrainians?"

A White House spokesperson told CBS News the Biden administration is evaluating the capabilities it could provide to backfill jets to Poland if it decided to transfer planes to Ukraine but noted there are several questions that arise from a decision to do so, including how the jets could be transferred from Poland to Ukraine.

Very provocative, but Ukraine desperately needs help.

[Skatastrophy]

Boris Johnson in an NYTimes Opinion piece lays out the next steps for the West

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/opinion/boris-johnson-russia-putin-ukraine-war.html

1. First, we must mobilize an international humanitarian coalition (Plan to absorb refugees from Ukraine)
2. Second, we must do more to help Ukraine to defend itself (Provide weapons to Ukraine)
3. Third, we must maximize the economic pressure on Mr. Putin’s regime (Sanctions)
4. Fourth, no matter how long it takes, we must prevent any creeping normalization of what Russia does in Ukraine (?)
5. Fifth, we should always be open to diplomacy and de-escalation (Negotiate so that Russia doesn't get mad about #6)
6. Sixth, we must act now to strengthen Euro-Atlantic security (Expand NATO and further militarize Europe)

It's nice that Johnson acknowledges US leadership during this crisis. Seems like the good guys are bonding over this thing.

[MuggsyB]

I will say that I never imagined how inept the Russian military appears. 

[pbiflyer]

I will say that I never imagined how inept the Russian military appears.

He’s outsourcing.

WSJ is reporting that the Russians want to bring in Syrian Mercenaries
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-recruiting-syrians-for-urban-combat-in-ukraine-u-s-officials-say-11646606234

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I was unaware of this aspect, but reading up on it, it does make some sense that they are included in negotiations.

It appears Russia is essential for the collection and conversion of nuclear materials, and conversion of a nuclear facility that could be used for weapons, to one for research only.

By that alone, they kind of need to be part of the negotiations.

Their request/demand is also not that unusual, but extremely awkward. They want written assurance, that trade between Iran and Russia will not be subject to current Ukraine sanctions. Essentially saying Iran cannot be punished for trading with Russia.

Super awkward, because the motivating force of the renewed Iran deal is to cut off Russia...but apparently Russia is essential to any deal being done...so why would they take part in a deal that asks them to play an essential role, but also hurts them. Very weird scenario.

I'm kind of thinking "just sign the deal" and afterwards the Iranians won't add any sanctions on Russia per the deal but don't buy anything from Russia either, under the "we just don't need anything right now" label.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Boris Johnson in an NYTimes Opinion piece lays out the next steps for the West

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/06/opinion/boris-johnson-russia-putin-ukraine-war.html

1. First, we must mobilize an international humanitarian coalition (Plan to absorb refugees from Ukraine)
2. Second, we must do more to help Ukraine to defend itself (Provide weapons to Ukraine)
3. Third, we must maximize the economic pressure on Mr. Putin’s regime (Sanctions)
4. Fourth, no matter how long it takes, we must prevent any creeping normalization of what Russia does in Ukraine (?)
5. Fifth, we should always be open to diplomacy and de-escalation (Negotiate so that Russia doesn't get mad about #6)
6. Sixth, we must act now to strengthen Euro-Atlantic security (Expand NATO and further militarize Europe)

It's nice that Johnson acknowledges US leadership during this crisis. Seems like the good guys are bonding over this thing.

The Atlantic had a lengthy article on Johnson last year and he came off way less of a clown than previous appearances.

I never realized he had dual citizenship with the US until recently.  He had to give up his US to resolve an issue of not paying some taxes.

He's still wrong on Brexit.,.............

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I will say that I never imagined how inept the Russian military appears.

I haven't seen any stories to support this idea, but my spidey senses suspect that we and other western allies may have more to do with that than has been reported. Satellite targeting, more and better weapons being sent that have been reported, covert cyber warfare, perhaps remote drone piloting, etc.

Russian unnatural carnal knowledgeers continue to pretend to allow civilians to evacuate only to bomb them as they try to do so. I hope we are helping Ukraine counter-target Russian artillery.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I haven't seen any stories to support this idea, but my spidey senses suspect that we and other western allies may have more to do with that than has been reported. Satellite targeting, more and better weapons being sent that have been reported, covert cyber warfare, perhaps remote drone piloting, etc.

Russian unnatural carnal knowledgeers continue to pretend to allow civilians to evacuate only to bomb them as they try to do so. I hope we are helping Ukraine counter-target Russian artillery.

Has to be related to Western data provided, as I saw a blurb this morning, that Ukraine may have blown up 30 (out of 55) Russian helicopters overnight sitting on an airfield near Kherson.
The quantity is totally unconfirmed and it may really be zero, but there definitely was an counter attack.

[Pakuni]

Perhaps wishful thinking, but a case for how the invasion of Ukraine signals the beginning of the end of the Putin regime, in the same way the invasion of Afghanistan was for the USSR.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-putins-panicked-panicked-crackdown-in-russia-shows-hes-on-the-way-out?ref=home

[StillAWarrior]

I haven't seen any stories to support this idea, but my spidey senses suspect that we and other western allies may have more to do with that than has been reported. Satellite targeting, more and better weapons being sent that have been reported, covert cyber warfare, perhaps remote drone piloting, etc.

I have seen some reports that the Russian supply convoy North of Kyiv is literally stuck in the mud and hasn't really moved for more than a week and may be pretty much completely incapacitated. But it's always hard to know what the truth is. I saw one estimate that as much as 1/5 of the Russian invading force is bogged down in that 40 mile traffic jam that isn't going anywhere for the foreseeable future.

[jficke13]

I have seen some reports that the Russian supply convoy North of Kyiv is literally stuck in the mud and hasn't really moved for more than a week and may be pretty much completely incapacitated. But it's always hard to know what the truth is. I saw one estimate that as much as 1/5 of the Russian invading force is bogged down in that 40 mile traffic jam that isn't going anywhere for the foreseeable future.

The mud in this part of the world has been an issue for several invading armies who famously did not have a good time. Those typically were heading east, not west, but mud don't care I suppose.

The surprising thing to me is that this was surprising to the Russians... who one would think have been familiar with this quirk of the geography of the battlespace.

[Jockey]

Perhaps wishful thinking, but a case for how the invasion of Ukraine signals the beginning of the end of the Putin regime, in the same way the invasion of Afghanistan was for the USSR.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-putins-panicked-panicked-crackdown-in-russia-shows-hes-on-the-way-out?ref=home

I'd like this to be the case, but worry it is more wishful thinking than fact.

[StillAWarrior]

The mud in this part of the world has been an issue for several invading armies who famously did not have a good time. Those typically were heading east, not west, but mud don't care I suppose.

The surprising thing to me is that this was surprising to the Russians... who one would think have been familiar with this quirk of the geography of the battlespace.

I learned the mud even has a name -- Rasputitsa. I saw one thing that said that Ukraine intentionally flooded the area last week which may make it even more difficult for the Russians to progress. The convoy has stalled and the Russians kept coming and coming and now it's very densely packed in and very difficult to move. Ukraine has been attacking the front of the column a bit making it hard to get going, but has not attacked the rest of the column due to likely defenses.

On this topic: I can't vouch for this guy but I found this interesting reading.

[Skatastrophy]

The mud in this part of the world has been an issue for several invading armies who famously did not have a good time. Those typically were heading east, not west, but mud don't care I suppose.

The surprising thing to me is that this was surprising to the Russians... who one would think have been familiar with this quirk of the geography of the battlespace.

Russia should have read this great WaPo piece last month. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2022/ukraine-russia-invasion-geography-weather/

Regarding the Pinsk Marshes, where Russia is held up North of Kiev:

To Ukraine’s north span roughly 100,000 square miles of wetlands known as the Pinsk Marshes. Here is one place the cold could really play a role. During the winter, these mucky flatlands freeze over, providing a more stable terrain for heavy military vehicles that would otherwise get stuck in the mud.

Experts say the frozen ground, usually present in February, could provide Russian troops with the best window to cross into Ukraine. While more roads have recently been built throughout the marshes, traversing the open terrain would be strategically important.

“Those fields become critical because you can’t risk bottlenecks on a roadway,” said Seth G. Jones, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “You run into real problems on very muddy terrain in the March-April time frame.”

Historically the marshes have been an obstacle to forces. But muddy landscape might not be a deciding factor this time around, according to a written analysis by the Center for Naval Analyses Russia Studies Program (CNA) in response to questions from The Washington Post. “While these marshes were flagged as a potential hazard for Western forces fighting a hypothetical war in the U.S.S.R. and considered ‘impassible except during winter,’ Russian troops have long proved quite adept at handling marsh and swamp terrain.”

During World War II, the marshes posed a challenge to German forces invading during Operation Barbarossa.

[Hards Alumni]

Perhaps wishful thinking, but a case for how the invasion of Ukraine signals the beginning of the end of the Putin regime, in the same way the invasion of Afghanistan was for the USSR.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/vladimir-putins-panicked-panicked-crackdown-in-russia-shows-hes-on-the-way-out?ref=home

The only thing scarier than Putin running Russia is a rudderless Russia with 6000 nuclear warheads to take care of.

[Hards Alumni]

I have seen some reports that the Russian supply convoy North of Kyiv is literally stuck in the mud and hasn't really moved for more than a week and may be pretty much completely incapacitated. But it's always hard to know what the truth is. I saw one estimate that as much as 1/5 of the Russian invading force is bogged down in that 40 mile traffic jam that isn't going anywhere for the foreseeable future.

I would hope that the Bayraktars would be taking care of such a target rich environment.

[pbiflyer]

I haven't seen any stories to support this idea, but my spidey senses suspect that we and other western allies may have more to do with that than has been reported. Satellite targeting, more and better weapons being sent that have been reported, covert cyber warfare, perhaps remote drone piloting, etc.

Russian unnatural carnal knowledgeers continue to pretend to allow civilians to evacuate only to bomb them as they try to do so. I hope we are helping Ukraine counter-target Russian artillery.

There is a NATO AWAC plane constantly circling just outside the Ukraine boarder. Also a US plane flying at 54k feet. I am guessing that some of their communication gets "intercepted" by Ukrainian military.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

The only thing scarier than Putin running Russia is a rudderless Russia with 6000 nuclear warheads to take care of.

The Atlantic ran this article 7 years ago.  Food for thought at that time.

A Russia After Putin
Even if the president reappears, his absence reveals the chilling degree to which he has consolidated power in the country.
By Matt Schiavenza
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/03/a-russia-after-putin/387814/

[Hards Alumni]

There is a NATO AWAC plane constantly circling just outside the Ukraine boarder. Also a US plane flying at 54k feet. I am guessing that some of their communication gets "intercepted" by Ukrainian military.

The US has admitted that it is providing information to the Ukrainian military.

[JWags85]

Best theory I read today is Russia is doing all of this KNOWING they will be cutoff and isolated, which will give credibility and power to all the Bitcoin Putin and the oligarchs have...thus bringing the fall of Western banking and shifting power to BTC and other Crypto.  4D Chess I tell you