Explosions in Kiev

[Hards Alumni]

While I have absolutely zero doubt there is a small but significant number of nutters that think this way in the U.S., it seems just as likely that this is just a post from a Russian troll farm.

It isn't.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Wags didn't include a link to the post (and I didn't bother to research admittedly), so how do you know?

[jesmu84]

Wags didn't include a link to the post (and I didn't bother to research admittedly), so how do you know?

There are definitely online "leftists" who support Putin/Russia from the sole viewpoint of "west bad"

[TSmith34, Inc.]

There are definitely online "leftists" who support Putin/Russia from the sole viewpoint of "west bad"

Yeah, I said as much--there are unquestionably a small but still notable number of people in the U.S. that support Putin. My question to hards was more about how he knew the particular tweet was from a real person rather than from a Russian troll farm, that's all.

[Jockey]

I agree that this is very bad. But man, what was she thinking, carrying Hashish oil in an airport during a major international crisis on the tipping point of a major altercation between Russia and the West.

If the russians said she did it, it must be so. They even have video. Ooooh.

[Hards Alumni]

Yeah, I said as much--there are unquestionably a small but still notable number of people in the U.S. that support Putin. My question to hards was more about how he knew the particular tweet was from a real person rather than from a Russian troll farm, that's all.

I don't.  But those are specific things I've read online as well.  Cognitive dissonance isn't relegated to one end of the political spectrum or the other.

They're tankies, who can't separate leftist thought from their Russophilia and misguided defense of everything Soviet.  Essentially, they're Stalinists who make excuses for the bad behavior of Putin, without understanding that Putin doesn't really want to go back to the times of the USSR.  He fancies himself more of a Tsar than a General Secretary.

[MuggsyB]

Are reports true that the USA is not allowing Polish planes to come into Ukraine? 

[Hards Alumni]

Are reports true that the USA is not allowing Polish planes to come into Ukraine?

No idea.  But you can imagine why the USA would not want that.  Poland is a NATO member, and Russia may view the addition of Polish aircraft as a direct attack on Russia.  Of course, this is debatable, but Russia would have to draw a line somewhere when it comes to arming their opponents, and if they allow planes, where does the arming end?  So, if Russia feels like this is a direct attack from Poland, it will consider itself at war with Poland.  That would invoke article five of the NATO treaty and NATO would be at war with Russia.  This is, of course, potentially horrific.

Again, be patient.  I know it is hard to see people and places bombed in Ukraine.  Also, remember that this happens in the world every day, and almost nothing is done to combat it.  The Saudis are committing a genocide in Yemen of the Houthi people.  There is an ongoing genocide in Ethiopia in the Tigray region by the Eritrean military.  The US (via frozen assets) is allowing thousands (or millions) of people to starve to death in Afghanistan.  Israel is an apartheid state with little chance of change, Palestine is an outdoor prison.  And of course everyone knows about the Uyghur genocide in China.  Global human suffering is never ending.  Ask yourself why no one seems to care about these other cases of human suffering. 

Let the sanctions run their course and allow the Russian people (hopefully) to advocate for leadership change or an end to hostilities.

[MuggsyB]

No idea.  But you can imagine why the USA would not want that.  Poland is a NATO member, and Russia may view the addition of Polish aircraft as a direct attack on Russia.  Of course, this is debatable, but Russia would have to draw a line somewhere when it comes to arming their opponents, and if they allow planes, where does the arming end?  So, if Russia feels like this is a direct attack from Poland, it will consider itself at war with Poland.  That would invoke article five of the NATO treaty and NATO would be at war with Russia.  This is, of course, potentially horrific.

Again, be patient.  I know it is hard to see people and places bombed in Ukraine.  Also, remember that this happens in the world every day, and almost nothing is done to combat it.  The Saudis are committing a genocide in Yemen of the Houthi people.  There is an ongoing genocide in Ethiopia in the Tigray region by the Eritrean military.  The US (via frozen assets) is allowing thousands (or millions) of people to starve to death in Afghanistan.  Israel is an apartheid state with little chance of change, Palestine is an outdoor prison.  And of course everyone knows about the Uyghur genocide in China.  Global human suffering is never ending.  Ask yourself why no one seems to care about these other cases of human suffering. 

Let the sanctions run their course and allow the Russian people (hopefully) to advocate for leadership change or an end to hostilities.

We have not acted in countless genocides with humans and other animals and my take is that it's appalling.   We all know why we have done nothing in Africa and other places.  Obviously Putin and Xi's aspirations and military might are a grave concern for the Western World. 

[Hards Alumni]

We have not acted in countless genocides with humans and other animals and my take is that it's appalling.   We all know why we have done nothing in Africa and other places.  Obviously Putin and Xi's aspirations and military might are a grave concern for the Western World.

Okay, but let's not make this bad situation worse by starting a world war.  It's a bummer, but the world is a bummer, and this is the only one that can currently expand into a wider conflict that could kill millions if it escalates.

[MuggsyB]

Okay, but let's not make this bad situation worse by starting a world war.  It's a bummer, but the world is a bummer, and this is the only one that can currently expand into a wider conflict that could kill millions if it escalates.

I get the hope of Ukranians bleeding Putin dry and a coup within Russia.  What is concerning is him starving people to death and cutting off electricity there.  I guess my issue is that everyone agrees if he violates article 5 we and NATO have no choice but to engage.  He's stated for all intents and purposes Western sanctions are an act of war. 

So, assuming he does eventually force millions to leave Ukraine and set up a puppet government why would he be fearful of a military response from NATO/US in Latvia?  I think we're a  bit obsessed with Article 5 .  He will use the Nuclear threat again wouldn't you think? 

And by the way, shouldn't he be fearful iof what the US and NATO could do??  Could we make him more fearful now in lieu of us and the West being afraid?  Unless the guy is truly suicidal do you really think he wants to enage with us and start a nucleae WW3?   This is obviously complex and difficult, again there's no easy answers, but it seems to me there's very little chance he won't directly confront a NATO member even if some of his military is crippled.

[forgetful]

If the russians said she did it, it must be so. They even have video. Ooooh.

Valid point. Also, apparently this all happened 3-weeks ago. She's been detained for 3-weeks already.

[Hards Alumni]

I get the hope of Ukranians bleeding Putin dry and a coup within Russia.  What is concerning is him starving and cutting off electricity there.  I guess my issue is that everyone agrees that if he violates article 5 we and NATO have no choice but to engage.  He's stated for all intents and purposes Western sanctions are an act of war. 

So, assuming he does eventually force millions to leave Ukraine and set up a puppet government why would he be fearful of a military response from NATO/US in Latvia?  I think we're a  bit obsessed with Article 5 .  He will use the Nuclear threat again wouldn't you think? 

And by the way, shouldn't he be fearful iof what the US and NATO could do??  Could we make him more fearful now in lieu of us and thr West being afraid?  Unless the guy is truly suicidal do you really think he wants to enage with us and start a nucleae WW3?   This is obviously complex and difficult, again there's no easy answers, but it seems to me there's very little chance he won't directly confront a NATO member even if some of his military is crippled.

Putin routinely talks out of both sides of his mouth.  Take anything he SAYS with a grain of salt.  Actions are the only thing that matters.

Why do you think he'd attack Latvia?  It's a NATO member.  Do you understand the difference of declaring war on Ukraine vs declaring war on the entirety of the West?  If Russia invaded or atttacked Latvia, NATO would 100% defend.

No. I'm not concerned about what Putin is or is not afraid of.  This isn't psychoanalysis.  If he wanted WW3, he could have it in an hour.  Why would he directly confront NATO?  There is zero motivation for him to do this.

[MuggsyB]

Putin routinely talks out of both sides of his mouth.  Take anything he SAYS with a grain of salt.  Actions are the only thing that matters.

Why do you think he'd attack Latvia?  It's a NATO member.  Do you understand the difference of declaring war on Ukraine vs declaring war on the entirety of the West?  If Russia invaded or atttacked Latvia, NATO would 100% defend.

No. I'm not concerned about what Putin is or is not afraid of.  This isn't psychoanalysis.  If he wanted WW3, he could have it in an hour.  Why would he directly confront NATO?  There is zero motivation for him to do this.

Because he wrote a manifesto stating what he planned to do and they include the Baltics.

[Hards Alumni]

Because he wrote a manifesto stating what he planned to do and they include the Baltics.

And you believed it.  He's also stated the opposite.  Here, if you've got some time today, give this video a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZv0-0cx96g

[JWags85]

Gents, keep your personal politics out of this.  And Wags, I kept your post, but you have to have known that was going to stir up politics, right?

Fair point. I meant it more as a counter to “who the hell is supporting Russia” and showing that it is even nuttier than imagined.  Truthfully wasn’t meant to be a political bomb but I totally get your angle.

Wags didn't include a link to the post (and I didn't bother to research admittedly), so how do you know?

It wasn’t a singular post. It was a post, then replies then clicking on other profiles or related tweets that Twitter shows.  I assure you it wasn’t a bot farm.  Like Hards and Jesu said, it’s “west bad”/tankie mindset.

[MuggsyB]

I'll check it out later.  Ty.

[jesmu84]

And you believed it.  He's also stated the opposite.  Here, if you've got some time today, give this video a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZv0-0cx96g

Piggybacking off this, here's a few more good videos:

https://youtu.be/b4wRdoWpw0w
"Failed logistics of Russian invasion"

https://youtu.be/If61baWF4GE
"Why Russia is invading Ukraine "

https://youtu.be/FQ4hvLqNfqo
"Putin will lose, here's why"

https://youtu.be/LJNtfyq3TDE
"Real reason Russia is invading"

Related...
https://youtu.be/VNZ0so0LCoM
"Here's what happens if China invades Taiwan"

[forgetful]

Not surprising, US negotiating with Venezuela to try and find a way to get to a common ground to end sanctions.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-officials-travel-venezuela-russian-ally-talks-source-2022-03-06/

Similar efforts with Iran. They are the only two nations that could fill the gap for oil and gas if Russian oil/gas is off the table.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Not surprising, US negotiating with Venezuela to try and find a way to get to a common ground to end sanctions.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-officials-travel-venezuela-russian-ally-talks-source-2022-03-06/

Similar efforts with Iran. They are the only two nations that could fill the gap for oil and gas if Russian oil/gas is off the table.

The Iran one is weird because it sounds like they have a deal all sides can live with except we'll 'um Russia. 

[MuggsyB]

And you believed it.  He's also stated the opposite.  Here, if you've got some time today, give this video a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZv0-0cx96g

While he's trying to lay this out from various points of view, for the most part this is speculative with a few additional angles that we haven't discussed.  The only conclusions he draws are the obvious regardless of the three particular political sides he covers fairly well. 

I do think the paramilitary groups within Ukraine is important and has been pretty much left out of the media. Depending on what happens it could turn into a total nightmare  somewhat in the mold of Afghanistan.  He also rightly states that getting rid of Putin doesn't change the nature of our issues with Russia.  Although I'm pretty confident any alternative would be better.

He also made a comment about bringing "back" proxy wars which many would argue haven't gone anywhere.  In general, while I thought the video was informative, it's more or less a synopsis of various possibilities and that no one knows if Putin is crazy or what his actual strategy is for the future.  He never really postulates whether a stronger or weaker response from the USA and Europe would be the best course of action in averting everyone's main concern.  Nor does he emphasize Putin's stated ambitions the past 20 years and more recently.   Ty for sharing.

[Hards Alumni]

Not surprising, US negotiating with Venezuela to try and find a way to get to a common ground to end sanctions.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-officials-travel-venezuela-russian-ally-talks-source-2022-03-06/

Similar efforts with Iran. They are the only two nations that could fill the gap for oil and gas if Russian oil/gas is off the table.

It'd be about time we ended sanctions on those two countries... Cuba too.

The sanctions we put on Russia will only increase the pressure on Venezuela.

[MuggsyB]

It'd be about time we ended sanctions on those two countries... Cuba too.

The sanctions we put on Russia will only increase the pressure on Venezuela.

China becoming more aligned with Russia isn't a good result.  I think they will play a role on their banking system.  There's also the weird dynamic of negotiating this Iran deal with Russia.  We have pressing concerns Hands and we all know the bigger ramifications from this mess.  I think we just disagree about the best way to maintain a worldwide balance of power. 

[Hards Alumni]

China becoming more aligned with Russia isn't a good result.  I think they will play a role on their banking system.  There's also the weird dynamic of negotiating this Iran deal with Russia.  We have pressing concerns Hands and we all know the bigger ramifications from this mess.  I think we just disagree about the best way to maintain a worldwide balance of power.

How is China becoming more aligned with Russia?  Honest question.

They're just being China and not taking a side.  Same thing as the last few decades.

There is no balance of power.  The US is at the top without any true competitor.  You can say China, but without the US, China's economy would crumble.  Their military is vastly inferior despite larger numbers. 

The worldwide reserve currency is still the dollar, and will be for the foreseeable future.  Russia's GDP is 11th worldwide.  And after this conflict it will tumble even further. 

I think you're far too concerned with the US losing global hegemony.  It's not happening any time soon.

[forgetful]

How is China becoming more aligned with Russia?  Honest question.

They're just being China and not taking a side.  Same thing as the last few decades.

There is no balance of power.  The US is at the top without any true competitor.  You can say China, but without the US, China's economy would crumble.  Their military is vastly inferior despite larger numbers. 

The worldwide reserve currency is still the dollar, and will be for the foreseeable future.  Russia's GDP is 11th worldwide.  And after this conflict it will tumble even further. 

I think you're far too concerned with the US losing global hegemony.  It's not happening any time soon.

An argument can be made that without China, the US economy would crumble. The two economies are intricately connected.