Explosions in Kiev

[rocket surgeon]

I read that putin is spending $20 billion/day to overtake Ukraine.  We need to get the world to boycott everything Russian, especially OIL.  We should be re opening all of our petroleum sources.  They say if Ukraine can put in the 4 corner stall, putin goes broke!!  I hope this is true. 


WarriorFan-thanks and Godspeed at ya

Ok, from what I’ve been reading and hearing, putin is actually going “nuts”. He’s lost some marbles.  They mean this in a very real sense, not just what we would perceive as the obvious. Far from being in your situation and having your perspective MF, but the Ukraine appears to have a pretty strong sense of “patriotism” themselves.  True David vs Goliath hoping David extends his streak to 2

[Hards Alumni]

As I was sitting in my hotel room (overlooking the Kremlin) in Moscow Thursday night, I wrote this but then decided not to post.  After a few more discussions with Russian friends and colleagues, I offer the following to this discussion:
- from a Western perspective Putin is not rational however he has played a long game in his own country to make his actions look very rational to the Russian people.
- Most Russians don't want war, but there is strong evidence (to most Russians) that life in Russia is far better than life in the former Soviet republics outside of Russia.  The huge amount of Ukranian migrant labor (about 1.5m people) in Russia is one point of concrete evidence of this.
- Part of Putin's game is claiming that Ukraine is a USA puppet state, so when Russia overtakes Ukraine (and they will) and installs their own puppet government they will have - by Putin's definition - "beaten the USA".  Russian people buy into this argument.
-  Russians are the 2nd most patriotic people I've ever met (after Americans, of course).  They believe in a "big, strong" Russia.
- Most Russians know exactly how messed up their system and leadership is... just like Americans (to be fair this is not a Trump/Biden comment), and are pretty honest about it in private.  It's still much better in Russia now than it was in the 90's, so all who remember the 90's tolerate the situation today because you can live, work, earn, travel, and even enjoy life.

As for the western actions:
- Sanctions don't work because money is like water, it finds a path and reaches its level.  I have read the entire text of all of the sanctions (job requirement) and most of them are narrowly focused so they will not significantly alter the major avenues of trade and foreign exchange for Russia.  They "look good" but are mostly a political act with little substance.
- As for military support I have no expertise, but refer to previous comments... Russians view Ukraine as a US proxy fighting with US weapons and US training.  Victory would be a huge morale boost.
- Terminating SWIFT for Russia would be a huge negative.  It seems the EU politicians are smarter than this.  It would be very bad for the US.  Now all commodities trades and Gas/Petro contracts are denominated in USD.  If SWIFT is switched off, the only other functioning system for international currency movement is the Chinese system, and it requires settlement in Yuan.  Russia is a top 5 producer of oil, gas, nickel, platinum, palladium, and coal.  Settling Russian volumes in Yuan would create a critical mass that drives other trade to Yuan thereby fulfilling a massive Chinese objective.  The US "superpower" status is largely contingent these days on the USD as the world's currency. 

I'm not saying "let it happen"... nor that it is "fait accompli" but it's very close to that.  The western world would do well to be several steps ahead by ensuring that NATO boundaries are not crossed, and that China doesn't get any motivation to do the same in Taiwan.

Thanks for your insight.  I agree with most of what you said, but strongly disagree with your SWIFT viewpoint.  Would it push Russia closer to China?  Sure, but the rest of the world uses SWIFT for a reason, and Russia is only the world's 11th largest economy.  Other countries around the world wouldn't abandon SWIFT because of Russia's absence.  I'm going to go off on a tangent here... China's Yuan is as big of a mess as our dollar.  The middle class in China is financially overleveraged wit their domestic real estate purchasing as a means for retirement investment.  When the reality of what has happened with that greater fool ponzi scheme makes its way to the people and they understand that their financial investments are worth nothing... China will have a huge problem.  Not to mention the one child population control of the previous few decades is finally reaping what was sown.  The gender inequity in the Chinese population is staggering.  There are millions of young males who will have zero opportunity to have a family in China.  So in the coming years, you're going to have a lot of disaffected Chinese males that will be realizing that the decisions the government has made has drastically altered their ability to have a positive future.  I have no idea what that will mean for China, but large groups of unhappy males in a society with low prospects of a positive future does not a stable government make.

Gender imbalance in China
China belongs to the countries with a very imbalanced sex ratio at birth. In 2020, the sex ratio in the population aging from 0 to 4 years old ranged at around 111 males to 100 females. The high gender inequality can be attributed to the traditional preference for male children in the Chinese society. Although gender identification before birth is not legally allowed in China, selective abortions due to gender preference still exist in many regions of China.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/251102/sex-ratio-in-china/

[Hards Alumni]

I read that putin is spending $20 billion/day to overtake Ukraine.  We need to get the world to boycott everything Russian, especially OIL.  We should be re opening all of our petroleum sources.  They say if Ukraine can put in the 4 corner stall, putin goes broke!!  I hope this is true. 


WarriorFan-thanks and Godspeed at ya

Ok, from what I’ve been reading and hearing, putin is actually going “nuts”. He’s lost some marbles.  They mean this in a very real sense, not just what we would perceive as the obvious. Far from being in your situation and having your perspective MF, but the Ukraine appears to have a pretty strong sense of “patriotism” themselves.  True David vs Goliath hoping David extends his streak to 2

That is basically what we are doing, and I absolutely agree we should be removing them from international economy.  BUT having said that, there needs to be a clearly defined path for reentry.  Russia needs a carrot and a way to save face at home and abroad.  Looking weak isn't what Russia will tolerate... at least Mr. Putin.  Personally, what I'd be the most happy with is a 'new' United Nations charter.  What we're currently doing doesn't work.  The permanent security council holds far too much power.  Any of China, France, Russia, UK, and USA can basically do what they want on the world stage without any consequences from the UN.  Largely, this is what makes the UN so toothless. 

I've also heard the same about Mr. Putin's mental health implied.  But, be cautious, that could easily be Western media or State department disinformation.  I think Mr. Putin made a tremendous miscalculation with this invasion, and it will end up costing him everything.  Russia's allies (except China and Belarus) have largely denounced the invasion, and left Russia on it's own.  Unfortunately, this does make Russia extremely dangerous.  Less options makes for a less stable nuclear power.

[Hards Alumni]

Mostly, the way I've been following the conflict and lead up to the conflict is via this live thread on reddit.

https://www.reddit.com/live/18hnzysb1elcs

Remember, not all information posted is vetted or verified.  Essentially, this is a curated twitter feed.  Additionally, there is a massive anti-Russian bias. 

[MuggsyB]

Brother Muggsy:
Appreciate your comments.  I was offering perspective, not opinion.  If I decide to burden this board at some point with my opinion, it probably won't be too different to yours.

One small opinion I will share, is that the 3 administrations you refer to have been the 3 weakest, least strategic, and most disjointed foreign policy administrations in my (not short) lifetime.  Therein lies a big part of the problem.

Your comments are greatly appreciated Brother WF. You're not a burden at all..  The horror of this is absolutely gut-wrenching to hear or watch. 

[forgetful]

I read that putin is spending $20 billion/day to overtake Ukraine.  We need to get the world to boycott everything Russian, especially OIL.  We should be re opening all of our petroleum sources.  They say if Ukraine can put in the 4 corner stall, putin goes broke!!  I hope this is true. 

This is purely a hypothetical/philosophical question.

If we believe Russia is committed to taking Ukraine no matter what. Is it better in terms of loss of life, to not stall?

If things start to get dicey financial wise, or they are being significantly stalled, Russia can still release a true shock and awe. Bomb Ukraine into oblivion, in a manner more similar to what we did in Iraq/Baghdad.

If we believe Russia is committed, the result of a stall is massive loss of civilian life, and damage to civilian infrastructure.

There is kind of a bad, and worse option at that point.

What we would have to hope is that Russia is not committed, and if things stalled they just say "we made our point."

[forgetful]

Brother Warrior:

Fascinating take and I appreciate the time you took to outline your thoughts. Your perspectives do what we too often don’t do in this country — see things from the other side.

My own perspective on the East changed dramatically when my wife and I adopted children from Belarus and Ukraine in the late 1990s. We saw things and heard things that left an incredibly lasting vision about the old Soviet Union as well as the people of Ukraine and Belarus. You’re right about one thing: the people love Mother Russia, or Ukraine, but they don’t always like what’s happening. The mistake many of us make is to confuse patriotism with government support.

We have a very interesting problem in Ukraine. The Russians view Ukraine, likely, the way we view Great Britain, France or Germany. The idea of a socialistic, Russian-oriented government in any of these countries would be more than we could tolerate. Likewise, a Ukraine oriented to the west is a burr in Mr. Putin’s saddle.

To those of you who think the Russian action is unprecedented,  look at what we did in Cuba when Castro pledged alignment with the Soviet Union. The difference: the Russians are doing a better job than we did.

The problem we have now, as I have said before, is how far do we go for Ukraine. Is Mr. Biden willing to risk war over a country well within the old Russian sphere of influence. I doubt it. Is he willing to risk true sanctions that, as Brother Warrior points out, would effectively drive the Russians into the hands of the Chinese and threaten many aspects of our economy — I doubt that as well.

Sadly, I think the only answer is to back off, let Putin have Ukraine and hope it doesn’t spill to Poland, where it will mean war.

Dgies, I'm also one that does my best to try to look at things from the lens of other people/cultures, even though it is often difficult.

I too, thought about Cuba, but was doing a bit of a mental extension to what if Russia had remained as much of a world power as us, and had been successful in setting up Socialist regimes in Central America. For this thought experiment, imagine Nicaragua joining a socialist block with Russia, and being armed by Russia...then after a few yearsHonduras joins that block...then Belize. At that point, the US adamantly rejects any further Central American nations joining the socialist block. Yet Guatemala then joins.

The last straw was Mexico. We vehemently oppose Mexico joining the Block. Then, the people overthrow the government and install a Socialist- pro Russia government. They make clear they are doing everything they can to join the Socialist Block, which would put Russia on our border.

The part that gets hard with such thought experiments, is what would we do as a nation at that point. I honestly don't know.

I abhor war in all regards, and am appalled by what is going on in Ukraine, but part of me can't help recognize a lot of this stems from the failings of Man, and our constant need to divide. To set up camps fighting for power. Where there is always one winner, and one loser, and one perceived good, and perceived evil.

Hopefully this is just a very ugly war, in a much longer kerfuffle. But I can't help but fear that this one may be different, and take the world down a much darker path and a new bloody dark-age.

[Hards Alumni]

This is purely a hypothetical/philosophical question.

If we believe Russia is committed to taking Ukraine no matter what. Is it better in terms of loss of life, to not stall?

If things start to get dicey financial wise, or they are being significantly stalled, Russia can still release a true shock and awe. Bomb Ukraine into oblivion, in a manner more similar to what we did in Iraq/Baghdad.

If we believe Russia is committed, the result of a stall is massive loss of civilian life, and damage to civilian infrastructure.

There is kind of a bad, and worse option at that point.

What we would have to hope is that Russia is not committed, and if things stalled they just say "we made our point."

This is the catch 22 that Russia has found themselves in.  They can't just turn Ukrainian cities to rubble.  That would infuriate their populace as many Russian and Ukrainians are family or have family in either country.  If that was something Russia was willing to do, they'd have started the campaign that way.  At this point, it would seem that Russia has blocked twitter and FB instant messenger in their country.  They're trying to control the information narrative because things are not going well for them.  I honestly think Putin didn't really think this through, and thought that the Ukrainian military would have just surrendered wholesale and install a new government to prevent death and destruction.  It hasn't gone that way, so the disinformation and censorship has to get kicked up a notch back home.

While eventually the country may fall simply due to the immense difference in military power, Russia has not exactly shown itself to be competent in this invasion.

[Hards Alumni]

Dgies, I'm also one that does my best to try to look at things from the lens of other people/cultures, even though it is often difficult.

I too, thought about Cuba, but was doing a bit of a mental extension to what if Russia had remained as much of a world power as us, and had been successful in setting up Socialist regimes in Central America. For this thought experiment, imagine Nicaragua joining a socialist block with Russia, and being armed by Russia...then after a few yearsHonduras joins that block...then Belize. At that point, the US adamantly rejects any further Central American nations joining the socialist block. Yet Guatemala then joins.

The last straw was Mexico. We vehemently oppose Mexico joining the Block. Then, the people overthrow the government and install a Socialist- pro Russia government. They make clear they are doing everything they can to join the Socialist Block, which would put Russia on our border.

The part that gets hard with such thought experiments, is what would we do as a nation at that point. I honestly don't know.

I abhor war in all regards, and am appalled by what is going on in Ukraine, but part of me can't help recognize a lot of this stems from the failings of Man, and our constant need to divide. To set up camps fighting for power. Where there is always one winner, and one loser, and one perceived good, and perceived evil.

Hopefully this is just a very ugly war, in a much longer kerfuffle. But I can't help but fear that this one may be different, and take the world down a much darker path and a new bloody dark-age.

And to be fair, we did exactly what the USSR did with Cuba.  We put nukes in Turkey in the late 50s before the USSR even considered placing nukes in Cuba.  The US response to the missile crisis in Cuba was quite hypocritical, all things considered.  During the cold war, the US's actions in South and Central America was as imperialistic as the Soviet's in Eastern Europe.  You older guys probably remember the constant string of coups and military interventions in South America during the cold war.

[jesmu84]

And to be fair, we did exactly what the USSR did with Cuba.  We put nukes in Turkey in the late 50s before the USSR even considered placing nukes in Cuba.  The US response to the missile crisis in Cuba was quite hypocritical, all things considered.  During the cold war, the US's actions in South and Central America was as imperialistic as the Soviet's in Eastern Europe.  You older guys probably remember the constant string of coups and military interventions in South America during the cold war.

But USA are the good guys!

[Pakuni]

@NatashaBertrand: Breaking: the leaders of the European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the United States announce that selected Russian banks will be removed from SWIFT, restrictions to be imposed on Russian Central Bank

[Skatastrophy]

Zelenskyy stated earlier today that consensus has been reached to remove *some Russian banks* from SWIFT. It's being more widely reported now as a reality instead of just Zelenskyy saying it

https://www.axios.com/eu-expels-russia-swift-network-728618c1-2d09-4c3d-a325-551635adfbec.html

This will put a lot of pressure on Putin's regime to either pull out or further escalate. (maybe not, since it's only some banks). In addition to this, they're freezing the Russian Central Bank's assets. The Central Bank was working to prop up their stock market, gonna be a bloody Monday for them.

Edit:same as Pakuni

[Pakuni]

Zelenskyy stated earlier today that consensus has been reached to remove *some Russian banks* from SWIFT. It's being more widely reported now as a reality instead of just Zelenskyy saying it

https://www.axios.com/eu-expels-russia-swift-network-728618c1-2d09-4c3d-a325-551635adfbec.html

This will put a lot of pressure on Putin's regime to either pull out or further escalate. (maybe not, since it's only some banks). In addition to this, they're freezing the Russian Central Bank's assets. The Central Bank was working to prop up their stock market, gonna be a bloody Monday for them.

Edit:same as Pakuni

Will be interesting to see what happens if/when there's a run on the banks Mondsy morning in Russia.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

This is interesting if true

https://mobile.twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537193346220038?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497537196282331137%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2022%2F2%2F26%2F2082530%2F-The-Fall-of-Vladimir-Putin

[Dr. Blackheart]

Puti is done.

[Hards Alumni]

Will be interesting to see what happens if/when there's a run on the banks Mondsy morning in Russia.

I think a lot of people in the US are about to see what happens when you're currency turns to toilet paper... and the true power of international sanctions.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Do you need a tow?

Ukrainian man offers to tow enemy tank back to Russia after it runs out of fuel
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-tank-fuel-russia-kyiv-b2024003.html

[MuggsyB]

I'm surprised Putin hasn't taken out their internet.  It's possible he thought this could be done without carpet bombing and major destruction.  I'm concerned he has lunatic impulses but at this juncture it appears things are not going as planned for the Russians

[Hards Alumni]

I'm surprised Putin hasn't taken out their internet.  It's possible he thought this could be done without carpet bombing and major destruction.  I'm concerned he has lunatic impulses but at this juncture it appears things are not going as planned for the Russians

That's not how that works.  But there have been cyber attacks that have slowed the internet in places.

[forgetful]

This is interesting if true

https://mobile.twitter.com/RihoTerras/status/1497537193346220038?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1497537196282331137%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2022%2F2%2F26%2F2082530%2F-The-Fall-of-Vladimir-Putin

I'd be shocked if this was true. Seems hard to believe that Iran, and North Korea, can produce their own arms, but that Russia cannot without imports from Finland.

Also, although I don't think this is going as well as Russia planned. I don't think they expected this to be over in 4-days. It took the US 3-weeks to take Baghdad, and that was with massive bombing campaigns (1000+ sorties a day).

[DegenerateDish]

Some very good discussions in here. One thing I wondered about was Purim’s timing related to Covid. Reading some tweets from this past week about camps of Russian soldiers being ravaged by Covid with literally no where to go, and becoming disillusioned and some going AWOL and selling as much of their equipment as they can.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I'm surprised Putin hasn't taken out their internet.  It's possible he thought this could be done without carpet bombing and major destruction.  I'm concerned he has lunatic impulses but at this juncture it appears things are not going as planned for the Russians

I saw discussed last night   Russians could have taken down but their own army needs.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

I'd be shocked if this was true. Seems hard to believe that Iran, and North Korea, can produce their own arms, but that Russia cannot without imports from Finland.

Also, although I don't think this is going as well as Russia planned. I don't think they expected this to be over in 4-days. It took the US 3-weeks to take Baghdad, and that was with massive bombing campaigns (1000+ sorties a day).

I may have misread, but said they couldn't make because of raw materials.  Which is pretty much standard in the post-Covid world.  I'm in metals and we're not sanctioned and lead tunes are extended all around.  I just got quoted 44-46 weeks ARO for 500 lbs of a common but special stainless steel.

[forgetful]

I may have misread, but said they couldn't make because of raw materials.  Which is pretty much standard in the post-Covid world.  I'm in metals and we're not sanctioned and lead tunes are extended all around.  I just got quoted 44-46 weeks ARO for 500 lbs of a common but special stainless steel.

I believe that is what it said. But Russia is raw material rich, especially things like metals.

The only thing I could think of holding back the weaponry would be technical components, but they'd just get them from China.

I mean it is possible that they are indeed strapped for materials, but ever since the WMD days, I'm skeptical of media reports during war time.

[Pakuni]

Oh, only about 70 or so people standing in line to use an ATM today in Russia.
I imagine this is being repeated across the country today.

https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/1497889119917297665