Kolek planning to go pro
TAMUI do know, Newsie is right on you knowing ball.
It's going to be such a crapshoot this year. Many of these postponed games aren't gonna get rescheduled. Teams will be left such unbalanced records that things like "# of Q1 wins" will be useless - even "Q1 winning %" won't mean much for some teams with very small samples.Is it better to go 15-13 with 3 Q1 wins (in 6 opportunities) or 12-7 with 1 Q1 win (in 1 opportunity)? Don't envy the selection committee this year.
Based on who we've played and who we have left, I like our chances right now. The Big East has conference play usually does a good job of sorting teams into thirds, and typically the top two-thirds have a good shot of making the tournament. 1. Bottom Third: (DePaul, Georgetown, St. Johns, Butler): We're currently 1-0 against this group with 7 games left. We'll be favored in every one of them. There's always a chance for an upset, but going through the tough part of the schedule first has given us some good preparation. Collectively, the best win from all four teams is Butler's win over Providence, which seems like an outlier after PC won the rematch a week later. Despite all the criticism over our losses year to date, I just think we're so much better than these four that I expect 7-0 here.2. Middle Third: (Xavier, Providence, Seton Hall and MU): Currently, 1-2 with 3 games leftAs disappointing as the Xavier and Seton Hall losses were, we weren't out of either game at the end. Nor would I view the Providence game as evidence that we're clearly better. I think these are all 50/50 matchups for us.I think best case we'll go 2-1, and at worst 1-2 here, with equal remote possibilities of 0-3 and 3-0.If we wind up in contention with one of these teams for a tournament bid bunched up in the middle of the Big East, all other things being equal our wins over Wisconsin and Creighton should give us an edge over the others. Obviously, a season sweep by either Xavier or Seton Hall would be minus, but I don't think we'll be swept by both. 3. Expect losses to the three top teams: We're currently 1-2, with 3 games leftWe're already ahead of where I expected us to be against the top three based on the Creighton win. Most likely we go 0-3 the rest of the way, and at best 1-2.Adding those totals to our current 3-4 record puts us I think at worst 11-9, and at best 13-7. If we don't get the Villanova game rescheduled, I don't think it hurts us--we've already shown two marquee wins--Wisconsin and Creighton. Even if we wind up in the worst case and then take one more upset against us, I still like our chances as a .500 team in a P-6 conference with two top 10 wins under our belt.
Haven’t looked too deeply into this but I imagine that that at least some of the conferences will just award their champion as the auto bid (no conference tournament). Would probably open up at least 2-3 bids from the usual bid stealers as well and benefit fringe high major teams.
Nova for instance has 6 postponed games. No way they can fit all those in yet.
Personally, that's part of the reason I have been waiting to start my own brackets this year. It's really hard to compare resumes when they are so disparate in terms of games and opportunities.
68 bids. Ivy League isn't playing, so that frees up one bid. Arizona self imposed a ban, so that probably opens up a bid (bubble type team, but having a solid start to the year and will probably win a lot of games in the Pac-12). Oklahoma State is supposed to be out, but it'll depend on how long their appeal takes. If the appeal is still ongoing, they will be in the Tournament. If it is denied, that opens up another bid.Lunardi has 10 Big Ten teams in (fair). He has 8 ACC teams in (I see Louisville, Virginia, VT, and Clemson in solid shape. The rest have a LOT of work to do, in my opinion. Duke, UNC, NC State, FSU all have a decent chance, but far from locks). He has 7 Big 12 teams in (fair). He has 6 SEC teams in (generous), 5 Pac-12 (generous), 5 Big East, and 2 from the MWC and A10.I don't see any Big East team missing the Tournament if they are over .500 overall and .500 in the Big East.
If Marquette is .500 in conference they get in. They have two great wins and no bad losses. Great winsWisconsinCreighton on roadWorst loss Seton Hall at home or Xavier. UCLA, OkSt and UConn are all not bad losses.