Kolek planning to go pro
I've done some digging into it before, all manually. As someone whose primary interest is a national title, I think F4 numbers can be overrated. For every Izzo that gets to a F4 relatively early and follow it with a title, there's guys like Smart, Larranaga, and Crean who get there once and never translate that to the ultimate prize.
TAMUI do know, Newsie is right on you knowing ball.
The point is you keep running out that we won't get a P6 coach with NCAA success like that's the only way we could do better. 3 of the last 4 coaches performed better than Wojo, and they didn't fit that criteria, so maybe cool it with that strawman.
It's not a strawman at all. Many, many, many Scoopers - perhaps not you, but many - seem to think we can lure a proven P6 coach with a history of NCAA tourney success to our school. Maybe those folks are right, even though we NEVER have.As for your statement that 3 of the last 4 coaches performed better than Wojo, that's obviously true. KO, Crean and Buzz - like Wojo - were career assistants. Unlike Wojo, each had a variety of stops before arriving at MU - maybe that gave them perspective Wojo didn't have, and it could be something for our administration to keep in mind when they next need to hire a coach.Each of those three also used MU as a stepping stone. Also, we've subsequently seen that KO has had a long history of burning out fairly quickly at every single stop. Additionally, we've seen that Crean has not been able to build consistently outstanding programs. I still think it's a little early to say our administration "missed" in choosing Wojo. You disagree, and that's cool. You also seem to think that the way to go is to jettison Wojo no matter what - which we both know isn't going to happen - and then start all over again with yet another coach who has never proven himself at the high-major level, hoping that we get it "right" next time. I am not quite there yet.
I wouldn’t even say “many” Scoopers think we can lure the type of coach you described, much less “many, many, many”. I’d say about about the best we could hope for is a guy like TJ Otzelberger, who’s at a job that’s a little worse than MU and might want to come back home if the price was right.To your point about KO, Crean, and Buzz using MU as a stepping stone, you’re right. Wojo might also have used MU as a stepping stone, but he hasn’t had that opportunity due to his lack of any real success as a head coach. And he might bolt after this season if his golden goose goes for 50 in the first round and gets him a tourney win.
It's definitely a strawman, just like your insinuation that I feel we need to 'jettison Wojo no matter what', which I have absolutely not said. You have a habit of batting down the most extreme take (WOJO IS THE WORST! WE CAN GET A P6 COACH WITH NCAA SUCCESS) and then declaring yourself the winner of an argument nobody else is really having with you. My only point was that we shouldn't be scared of not getting a P6 coach, because we obviously have had success without them.
You don't think we should dump Wojo and go with somebody else? I apologize if I have misrepresented your opinion. Please remind me what it is again.And I am not the least bit "scared of not getting a P6 coach," so that sure sounds like a strawman argument from you.
Yeah, if you look at the coaches MU could have reasonably hired in 2014, it's hard to find one with a better record than Wojo to this point. Smart is flailing at Texas. Martin burned Cal to the ground and has now burned Mizzou to the ground. Howland is looking at finishing year 5 with only 1 NCAA tourney appearance. Hopkins had a good run with Romar's seniors in year 2 but is now sub .500 with two 5 star freshmen. Manning is about to be fired from Wake Forest. I used to say Florida's Mike White was one we could have gone after but after being pegged as a preseason top 5 team, they are now living the bubble life so maybe he's not the unicorn I thought he was, plus he's always been a southeastern guy so he may not have had the same recruiting success up here.It is theoretically possible that MU hired the best possible candidate but also that the best candidate wasn't good enough to reach the levels of success we are hoping for.
I don't believe Wojo should be fired. I feel fine saying he's done enough to keep his job. I also think it's five and a half years in and he doesn't have much to show for it, and that's disappointing. I think the optimism about him making a big leap forward is wishful thinking without a large influx of talent. He is what he is.And since you're not 'scared' of not getting a P6 coach and very few, if any, posters are shouting that we absolutely will, then we can happily put that talking point to bed.
This right here is the question that will likely never get answered...was it the best they could do?? Do we know that for sure?? Did they even bother to go "big game" hunting first, and make other Coaches say no?? There have been Coaches lured away from schools in college athletics to other schools that no one thought was possible, but they made them offers they can't refuse. I had people that would know tell me, MU never did that after the Shaka shun. That that was their pool of 3, and they never tried to hit a home run. In fact, they never even tried to hit higher than Shaka. EVERY good AD should call people about available jobs even if they think there's less than a 1% chance they say no. What is the harm?? The worst they say is no which you expected anyway..but what is...as you get to talking...there becomes a chance?? Unless you make the call, you never know, and this is where I think MU is lacking. Exhaust MANY options even if some are what others think might not be realistic. It is more important to get it right and know you did everything you possibly could to find the right candidate, then to just "settle". You can always go back to one of your "3" or 4 or whoever as a fall back option...they will always be there.
To go back to the analysis, my concern with Wojo is less how we do in close games -- we have improved as the statistics show -- but how we perform in games we're supposed to win. Case in point is BOTH Providence games this year.We should have swept the Friars, clear and simple. We're a better team and while you win some you should lose, you also shouldn't be losing much of the games you should win. We've been too inconsistent through much of the year and we're either deadly from three or it's anybody's game.I'm unconvinced with Wojo. By that, I mean I don't think he should be shown the door, as I don't want to lose the recruiting momentum we have. But we need some really positive growth coming fast and we need to make use of the entire team, not the guards.My jaundiced perspective:1) When I see this team, my basic concern is we have a strong presence inside that we almost forget is there. Both Theo and Jayce are under-utilized offensively. Between the two of them, they probably should average 12 to 14 points a game. I'm a big fan of Brendan Bailey but you can't argue that he's all but disappeared for too much of this year. Jamal Cain is someone you never know what you're getting from one game to the next.2) The world has learned how to defend Markus. I suspect is average PPG will fall as the days of the 30-point games probably are over. He's a great ballplayer and would be even greater if folks around him could pick up the slack when he's double-teamed.3) Sacar Anim is someone I love because we've watched him develop and he's probably overachieved. With rare exception, he won't carry you on his back.4) Koby is the standard of inconsistency. What we saw against Purdue is someone who can take over a game. But like Brendan, he's disappeared and hasn't been what we hoped when it was announced he was coming here. I'm optimistic for next year with him, but there is a lot of work that must be done.5) Greg's been injured for part of the year and Symir is a freshman. I'm hopeful Symir will be really something, but I thought the same thing about Koby.The ceiling for this year is probably a "6" seed and perhaps one NCAA victory. The way our opponents are beating up on Markus is limiting what we can do. Unless Sacar and Koby can step up, we're done quick, sadly.
In the generic sense absolutely, in the sense that we are trying to be realistic about how the MU BoT and Bill Scholl operates, naaawwww
A) They did go big game hunting pre-Shaka, and universally it was a nope.B) Remember we did not have a permanent AD at the time and the timing of Lovell's hiring was based on the need to make Shaka feel better.....not ideal time to be hiring a coach so the fact that we ended up with the best of the bunch (in hindsight) is relatively impressive in my book.C) Can you cite any examples of established coaches lured away from a school with a godfather offer like you claim?
*standing ovation* This just won the thread and it's not even close! You can say the Exact same thing about the @ Butler game as well. So even if you just put those 3 games in the "W" column and all other results stay the same how much different would things look?? All of a sudden you are 10-4 in the Big east instead of 7-7. It just comes down to doing what you are supposed to do. Thank You dgies for TRYING to get people to see what's so glaringly obvious even if they don't want to admit it.
Coach Yrs>NCAA Yrs>F4 Yrs>NC Jobs>F4 Current JobBill Guthridge 1 1 (None) 1 (Retired)Kevin Ollie 2 2 2 1 (Retired)Shaka Smart 2 2 (None) 1 2Mike Davis 1 2 (None) 1 4Roy Williams 2 3 17 2 2Brad Stevens 1 3 (None) 1 (Retired)Chris Beard 1 4 (None) 2 2Tom Izzo 3 4 5 1 1Tom Crean 3 4 (None) 1 3Billy Donovan 5 6 12 2 (Retired)Thad Matta 1 6 (None) 3 (Retired)J. Thompson III 1 7 (None) 2 (Retired)Bruce Weber 4 7 (None) 2 3Paul Hewitt 2 7 (None) 2 (Retired)John Calipari 4 8 20 1 3Rick Pitino 6 8 15 3 (Retired)Bob Huggins 2 8 (None) 2 4Eddie Sutton 5 9 (None) 2 (Retired)Frank Martin 1 10 (None) 2 2Jim Boeheim 1 11 27 1 1Mike Krzyzewski 9 11 16 2 2Ben Howland 4 11 (None) 3 4Lute Olson 1 11 28 3 (Retired)Lon Kruger 5 12 (None) 3 6Tony Bennett 1 13 13 2 2Porter Moser 14 14 (None) 3 3Bruce Pearl 2 15 (None) 3 3Jay Wright 6 15 22 2 2Bill Self 6 15 15 4 4Bo Ryan 3 15 (None) 2 (Retired)Gregg Marshall 1 15 (None) 2 2John Brady 9 15 (None) 2 (Retired)Kelvin Sampson 7 15 (None) 2 4Dick Bennett 6 15 (None) 2 (Retired)Rick Barnes 2 16 (None) 4 5Mark Few 1 18 (None) 1 1Jim Larranaga 13 20 (None) 2 3Jon Beilein 4 21 (None) 4 4Gary Williams 5 23 24 4 (Retired)Jim Calhoun 9 27 27 2 (Retired)Dana Altman 4 28 (None) 4 4Average #'s 3.9 11.1 17.4 2.2
Well, we weren't supposed to beat Villanova at home. So, 9-5.
Okay, I went back through all 41 coaches that have made a Final Four since 2000. First, I apologize for the wonkiness of code boxes. Anyway...of those, it took the average coach 3.9 years to make it to the NCAA Tournament, 11.1 years to make the Final Four, and for the 14 coaches to win a National Title, the average time to the first title was 17.4 years.I realize that as Final Four coaches, these are guys considered elite and we have no way of knowing if Wojo will ever get there, but of those 14 coaches that won a title only 3 made a Final Four in less time than Wojo has on the job currently. It will likely become 4 if Wojo doesn't make the Final Four this year (Donovan) but if you are looking to get to a Final Four, 56.1% of the coaches who reached a Final Four in the last 20 years didn't get there until they had 10+ years on the job. 85.7% of the national title winners didn't win their first title until they had 10+ years on the job.Even more worth noting, 75.6% of the coaches to get to the Final Four did so after leaving their first D1 head coaching job. Quite possible that Wojo could be the next K, Wright, or Donovan, but won't realize the levels of success those guys are known for until after he's departed Marquette.I have no idea what Wojo will grow into, but it's clear that by and large, it takes time to get to a Final Four, more time to win a national title, and usually multiple stops along the way. Do what you will with the data, feel free to expand on the research if someone else wants to look at NCAA wins or S16s or other less meaningful-than-a-Final-Four numbers.Code: [Select]Coach Yrs>NCAA Yrs>F4 Yrs>NC Jobs>F4 Current JobBill Guthridge 1 1 (None) 1 (Retired)Kevin Ollie 2 2 2 1 (Retired)Shaka Smart 2 2 (None) 1 2Mike Davis 1 2 (None) 1 4Roy Williams 2 3 17 2 2Brad Stevens 1 3 (None) 1 (Retired)Chris Beard 1 4 (None) 2 2Tom Izzo 3 4 5 1 1Tom Crean 3 4 (None) 1 3Billy Donovan 5 6 12 2 (Retired)Thad Matta 1 6 (None) 3 (Retired)J. Thompson III 1 7 (None) 2 (Retired)Bruce Weber 4 7 (None) 2 3Paul Hewitt 2 7 (None) 2 (Retired)John Calipari 4 8 20 1 3Rick Pitino 6 8 15 3 (Retired)Bob Huggins 2 8 (None) 2 4Eddie Sutton 5 9 (None) 2 (Retired)Frank Martin 1 10 (None) 2 2Jim Boeheim 1 11 27 1 1Mike Krzyzewski 9 11 16 2 2Ben Howland 4 11 (None) 3 4Lute Olson 1 11 28 3 (Retired)Lon Kruger 5 12 (None) 3 6Tony Bennett 1 13 13 2 2Porter Moser 14 14 (None) 3 3Bruce Pearl 2 15 (None) 3 3Jay Wright 6 15 22 2 2Bill Self 6 15 15 4 4Bo Ryan 3 15 (None) 2 (Retired)Gregg Marshall 1 15 (None) 2 2John Brady 9 15 (None) 2 (Retired)Kelvin Sampson 7 15 (None) 2 4Dick Bennett 6 15 (None) 2 (Retired)Rick Barnes 2 16 (None) 4 5Mark Few 1 18 (None) 1 1Jim Larranaga 13 20 (None) 2 3Jon Beilein 4 21 (None) 4 4Gary Williams 5 23 24 4 (Retired)Jim Calhoun 9 27 27 2 (Retired)Dana Altman 4 28 (None) 4 4Average #'s 3.9 11.1 17.4 2.2
Thanks for this. Can you go one step further and evaluate those that made the FF or won the championship, what the percentages look like for return visits to that level or how long it takes to get back?
Let's use the nearest and dearest example to us all: AL!He was hired for the 1964-1965 season. That first year, we were abysmal. Al made the NCAA tournament for the first time in 1967-1968 and we were promptly blown out by the University of Kentucky and Adolph the Bigot. In today's world, the 1966-1967 team probably would have been an NCAA team as well.The 1968-1969 team made the regional final and was a free throw away from the Final Four. We then won the NIT and then proceeded to lose various regional games in the NCAA between 1971 and 1974. No doubt part of the early 1970s failures was caused by the decision of Jim Chones, with Al's endorsement, to turn pro.Al made the Final Four for the first time in 1973-1974, his 10th year at Marquette.Al won the national title in 1976-1977, his 13th year at Marquette and three years after his initial FF appearance.One can argue that we had enough talent to get to the Final Four through much of the 1970s. But things just don't happen the way we want -- such as the disaster in 1978.
Fire Al ... posthumously!
Scoop, circa February 1977- the game has passed him by- the final four was great but that was 3 years ago- what other coach would get kicked out of a regional final, he’s lost it - Chonesgate doesn’t sit well with me