[Paint Touches] What you need to know about S. Carolina’s defense

[PaintTouches]

You know South Carolina's defense is great, but here's a look at what exactly makes it so difficult to score on.

https://painttouches.com/2017/03/14/what-you-need-to-know-about-s-carolinas-defense/

[MarquetteDano]

Only watched one game they played and they are super aggressive in contending threes when recovering.  I think Rowsey's shot fakes and going up after the fake is something this team needs to do a few times.  We will get some fouls called.

Martin has clearly taught them to defend threes "from the side" like the pictures show in this post.  Would not be the worst idea to shot fake then drive laterally to get some fouls as well.  This team loves to jump in the air on the perimeter.

[Daniel]

MU has to really focus on moving the pass, getting a clean extra pass, and get the ball to an open guy who can catch and shoot.   SC will be a handful on defense.  We need to control turnovers, and create some,  also need to get SC in foul trouble early.

[Tower913]

You know South Carolina's defense is great, but here's a look at what exactly makes it so difficult to score on.

https://painttouches.com/2017/03/14/what-you-need-to-know-about-s-carolinas-defense/

Great article.  Thanks for the analysis.  Biggest concern about SC is their ability to turn teams over.  Definitely need to have Rowsey and Reinhardt be primary ball handlers against press.

[WellsstreetWanderer]

MU has to really focus on moving the pass, getting a clean extra pass, and get the ball to an open guy who can catch and shoot.   SC will be a handful on defense.  We need to control turnovers, and create some,  also need to get SC in foul trouble early.

Seems to me the games we gave up were ones where we stopped passing the ball.
Ill advised shots early and failed one v. 3 drives. Hope we stick with the plan

[GoldenDieners32]

Does anyone else think besides me that JJJ and Luke will start?

[HoopsterBC]

Does anyone else think besides me that JJJ and Luke will start?

They both will come in at the 16 minute mark so does it really matter if they start or not?  This game is all about Luke getting involved offensively so then he can decide
to shoot or hit the open man on the 3 line.  I watched SC a little. there D is good but no different than Villy or Seton Hill.  There are always shots to be had, just have
to make them.  If they are on, they win.  Plus rebound and get up the court and that is when MU is good.  MU gets the lead and they do not have the offensive firepower
like some of the Big East teams.

[GoldenDieners32]

Im really confident in this team. Lets get the job done

[WayOfTheWarrior]

Great matchup. Should be a close one. The most encouraging thing for me is the fact that SC has struggled the last month and some teams have still been able to shoot well from deep. But yeah, if we can't handle the ball pressure, it could be a frustrating affair. Gotta come ready to hit some free throws.

[Benny B]

Sounds like the SEC wrote a pretty thick book on SC as the season went on.  Hopefully Wojo's library card hasn't expired.

[manny31]

Only watched one game they played and they are super aggressive in contending threes when recovering.  I think Rowsey's shot fakes and going up after the fake is something this team needs to do a few times.  We will get some fouls called.

Martin has clearly taught them to defend threes "from the side" like the pictures show in this post.  Would not be the worst idea to shot fake then drive laterally to get some fouls as well.  This team loves to jump in the air on the perimeter.

This.  As I was reading the article I was thinking about AR and his shot fake to draw the foul. If MU can move the ball well and make the "extra" pass I think things work out well for MU. Get in the bonus early and make the ft's. Go Warriors!

[PaintTouches]

Ran out of steam last night, so had to finish the analysis of why SC's defense has faltered of late on Twitter. As is the case with most things SC this season, has to do with Thornwell.

https://twitter.com/i/moments/841707838212845572

[Dawson Rental]

Does anyone else think besides me that JJJ and Luke will start?

I really don't think that Wojo is dumb enough to start JJJ.  In fact, I think that JJJ's minutes will be less than normal, he's not a good matchup for South Carolina offensively.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I really don't think that Wojo is dumb enough to start JJJ.  In fact, I think that JJJ's minutes will be less than normal, he's not a good matchup for South Carolina offensively.

Yah.  Their D will results in a bunch of turnovers from JJ and runouts.  Hope he has his head screwed on tight, but this isn't really a game I expect a great performance from JJ.

[GoldenDieners32]

Yah.  Their D will results in a bunch of turnovers from JJ and runouts.  Hope he has his head screwed on tight, but this isn't really a game I expect a great performance from JJ.

I think JJ is poised for a breakout game/tourney

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I wonder how much of a benefit South Carolina's defense gets by playing in the SEC. This is just at first glance, not an in depth analysis, but the SEC seems like they are one of the worst, if not they worst, high major on the offensive side of the ball. Just looking at KenPom, only one of the top 25 offenses is from the SEC (Kentucky #14). By contrast, the Big 12 has 4 (out 10), the ACC has 5 (out of 15), the Big East has 3 (out of 10), the Pac 12 has 3 (out 12), and the Big 10 has 2 (out 14).

Hell, even if you expand it to top 50, the SEC only has 4 teams. Only 6 in the top 75.

The SEC is also pretty bad at the three ball, most teams shoot it under 34% on the season. Vanderbilt is the only really decent one at 37.7%.

Add to this the fact that South Carolina only played Kentucky once, Arkansas (the 2nd best offense) once, and Vanderbilt (the best three point shooting team and 4th best offense) once....it makes you wonder if some of their defensive numbers aren't bolstered by a friendly schedule. For as good as their 3P defense is, conference opponents managed to shoot above their season average in 3P% in 8 out of 18 conference games. And 2 of the 10 times they didn't, they were within 2% of their season average.

Don't get me wrong, you don't get the #3 defense and #5 3P defense on accident.....what they did to Michigan, the 5th best offense in the nation is proof of that....but I also think you don't get it without a little help.

[Dawson Rental]

Very nice analysis.



p.s. Frank Martin is no longer willing to take your calls.

I wonder how much of a benefit South Carolina's defense gets by playing in the SEC. This is just at first glance, not an in depth analysis, but the SEC seems like they are one of the worst, if not they worst, high major on the offensive side of the ball. Just looking at KenPom, only one of the top 25 offenses is from the SEC (Kentucky #14). By contrast, the Big 12 has 4 (out 10), the ACC has 5 (out of 15), the Big East has 3 (out of 10), the Pac 12 has 3 (out 12), and the Big 10 has 2 (out 14).

Hell, even if you expand it to top 50, the SEC only has 4 teams. Only 6 in the top 75.

The SEC is also pretty bad at the three ball, most teams shoot it under 34% on the season. Vanderbilt is the only really decent one at 37.7%.

Add to this the fact that South Carolina only played Kentucky once, Arkansas (the 2nd best offense) once, and Vanderbilt (the best three point shooting team and 4th best offense) once....it makes you wonder if some of their defensive numbers aren't bolstered by a friendly schedule. For as good as their 3P defense is, conference opponents managed to shoot above their season average in 3P% in 8 out of 18 conference games. And 2 of the 10 times they didn't, they were within 2% of their season average.

Don't get me wrong, you don't get the #3 defense and #5 3P defense on accident.....what they did to Michigan, the 5th best offense in the nation is proof of that....but I also think you don't get it without a little help.

[tower912]

Which way does the causality go?  Good defense leading to bad offense, or poor offense leading to good defensive stats?
We'll see.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I wonder how much of a benefit South Carolina's defense gets by playing in the SEC. This is just at first glance, not an in depth analysis, but the SEC seems like they are one of the worst, if not they worst, high major on the offensive side of the ball. Just looking at KenPom, only one of the top 25 offenses is from the SEC (Kentucky #14). By contrast, the Big 12 has 4 (out 10), the ACC has 5 (out of 15), the Big East has 3 (out of 10), the Pac 12 has 3 (out 12), and the Big 10 has 2 (out 14).

Hell, even if you expand it to top 50, the SEC only has 4 teams. Only 6 in the top 75.

The SEC is also pretty bad at the three ball, most teams shoot it under 34% on the season. Vanderbilt is the only really decent one at 37.7%.

Add to this the fact that South Carolina only played Kentucky once, Arkansas (the 2nd best offense) once, and Vanderbilt (the best three point shooting team and 4th best offense) once....it makes you wonder if some of their defensive numbers aren't bolstered by a friendly schedule. For as good as their 3P defense is, conference opponents managed to shoot above their season average in 3P% in 8 out of 18 conference games. And 2 of the 10 times they didn't, they were within 2% of their season average.

Don't get me wrong, you don't get the #3 defense and #5 3P defense on accident.....what they did to Michigan, the 5th best offense in the nation is proof of that....but I also think you don't get it without a little help.

I am sure the SEC being bad is part of it, but they did hold Michigan to 46 (Andrei covered in detail on PT), Cuse to 50 points (season average 76, they only made 8 2PT FGs all game), Seton Hall to 34.5% shooting, and Clemson to 62 points (season average 75) on 3-16 from 3. They clearly can play some D.

[mu03eng]

I am sure the SEC being bad is part of it, but they did hold Michigan to 46 (Andrei covered in detail on PT), Cuse to 50 points (season average 76, they only made 8 2PT FGs all game), Seton Hall to 34.5% shooting, and Clemson to 62 points (season average 75) on 3-16 from 3. They clearly can play some D.

They also gave up:
54.5% to USF(20pts above average)
57.9% to TAMU(15pts above average)
40% to Kentucky(+5%)
55.6% to Georgia(+33%)
40.7% to Miss St(+6%)
50% to Arkansas(+14%)
47.4% to Florida (+11%)
47.1% to Ole Miss(+13%)

They also never once played a team with a top 30 3pt% shooting offense.

Their defense is good, but I don't think it's legitimately top 10 good. If #mubb shoots their average and turns the ball over their average, we win going away. If we do one of those things we win a tight one, we do neither (lots of TOs and missed shots) we lose a tight one.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

They also gave up:
54.5% to USF(20pts above average)
57.9% to TAMU(15pts above average)
40% to Kentucky(+5%)
55.6% to Georgia(+33%)
40.7% to Miss St(+6%)
50% to Arkansas(+14%)
47.4% to Florida (+11%)
47.1% to Ole Miss(+13%)

They also never once played a team with a top 30 3pt% shooting offense.

Their defense is good, but I don't think it's legitimately top 10 good. If #mubb shoots their average and turns the ball over their average, we win going away. If we do one of those things we win a tight one, we do neither (lots of TOs and missed shots) we lose a tight one.

Seems fair.  Nice thing is, even if we aren't hitting early, they're not going to bury us.  If we are hitting early, the Cocks are gonna have a hard to catching up.

[wadesworld]

You are what your numbers say you are.

Having said that, you can throw the numbers out the window at around 9:00 Central Time on Friday.  Once the ball is tipped it's whatever team shows up.  The good news is that South Carolina has just as little NCAA Tournament experience as we do.  The bad news is their coach has more NCAA Tournament experience as a head coach than ours does.  The good news is they struggle to score, the bad news is we've struggled with similar teams to them (length on the perimeter, athleticism, and, without having seen them play much at all so maybe I'm totally off here, but guessing, a tenacious, in your face team like their coach is, so the likes of Seton Hall, St. John's, and Providence).

The key to the game will be whether we fight through rough patches by staying together, running our offense, and keeping the ball moving or if each player decides that they single handedly can get us through a rough patch.  If it's the latter, we're toast.  If we respect the process and let the ball find the open man, we'll be fine.

Play 40 minutes of Warriors basketball and let's see where we wind up.

[Tower913]

I really don't think that Wojo is dumb enough to start JJJ.  In fact, I think that JJJ's minutes will be less than normal, he's not a good matchup for South Carolina offensively.

LOL.  I assume you are trolling here?  Or do you believe Duane/Cheatham are better options?  If so, please help me understand.  I felt JJJ finished on a high note against Xavier and Creighton and has shown he can be incredibly productive even in the limited minutes Wojo plays him (frequently).

[wadesworld]

LOL.  I assume you are trolling here?  Or do you believe Duane/Cheatham are better options?  If so, please help me understand.  I felt JJJ finished on a high note against Xavier and Creighton and has shown he can be incredibly productive even in the limited minutes Wojo plays him (frequently).

Welcome back sand knitter!

[GoldenDieners32]

If we have the same rims that they are using in Dayton...we wont lose every shot goes in for kansas state

[Dawson Rental]

LOL.  I assume you are trolling here?  Or do you believe Duane/Cheatham are better options?  If so, please help me understand.  I felt JJJ finished on a high note against Xavier and Creighton and has shown he can be incredibly productive even in the limited minutes Wojo plays him (frequently).

Has JJJ ever been the primary ball handler for any team he's played on since grade school?  Duane was a top 50 HS recruit while being the primary ball handler for Dominican.  Cheatham was the primary ball handler for MU for much of last year.  Ball handling experience is important when playing a team that utilizes a ball pressuring defense.  An even more important skill than laughing at things you don't understand.

Oh, and at 18% JJJ's turnover % is the highest on the team among scholarship players this year.

[Herman Cain]

You know South Carolina's defense is great, but here's a look at what exactly makes it so difficult to score on.

https://painttouches.com/2017/03/14/what-you-need-to-know-about-s-carolinas-defense/

I think we are really going to need a solid game from JJJ to compete against this team. He has the length and athleticism to neutralize what these guys bring to the table. I would like to see him driving it and kicking it out to Markus , Sam , Katin etc for Open looks. We are also going to need Luke to be effective offensively to draw the defense in.

[Dawson Rental]

I think we are really going to need a solid game from JJJ to compete against this team. He has the length and athleticism to neutralize what these guys bring to the table. I would like to see him driving it and kicking it out to Markus , Sam , Katin etc for Open looks. We are also going to need Luke to be effective offensively to draw the defense in.

Did you read the part of the Paint Touches article you refer to headed "Preventing Penetration"?  Spoiler alert: they are better at it than a nun chaperone at a Catholic High School dance.

[vogue65]

I really don't think that Wojo is dumb enough to start JJJ.  In fact, I think that JJJ's minutes will be less than normal, he's not a good matchup for South Carolina offensively.

If JJJ doesn't play hero ball, who will?

[real chili 83]

This "could" be a game where FT's matta.

Did Sand Knit get banned? 

[Tower913]

Has JJJ ever been the primary ball handler for any team he's played on since grade school?  Duane was a top 50 HS recruit while being the primary ball handler for Dominican.  Cheatham was the primary ball handler for MU for much of last year.  Ball handling experience is important when playing a team that utilizes a ball pressuring defense.  An even more important skill than laughing at things you don't understand.

Oh, and at 18% JJJ's turnover % is the highest on the team among scholarship players this year.

Things I don't understand?  In the realm of all explanations to articulate your position, NEVER in 100 years would I have thought we'd be citing Duane's role at Wisconsin Division 5, Dominican High School 5 years ago, or Cheatham's "rock solid" ball handling last year as a primary ball handler to rationalize the logic to bench JJJ in favor of Duane/Cheatham against South Carolina.

Sure JJJ has a slightly higher turnover rate (which ultimately gets offset by his high steal rate.)  He's also a higher usage player than Duane/Cheatham.  Duane has a 70.5 O-Rating in the last 6 games since being inserted into the starting lineup.  Cheatham is in a major funk.  None of JJJ, Duane, Cheatham are primary ball handlers anyway.  JJJ has a better eFG%, Assist rate, Rebounding Rate, commits less fouls than Duane/Cheatham, is 19th in the whole country in Steal Rate - and you want to park him behind Duane/Haanif?  How did that work out against Seton Hall in the 2nd half when JJJ got parked on the bench for the first 9 minutes of the 2nd half? 

And let's face it, Wojo's assessment of his players talents/abilities isn't exactly bullet proof, as we saw he felt it prudent to start/play Cohen over Burton two years ago, and Cohen more minutes than JJJ last year.

[mu03eng]

Sure JJJ has a slightly higher turnover rate (which ultimately gets offset by his high steal rate.) 

His higher turnover rate does not get offset by his steal rate.....his steal rate gets offset by the worse defensive eFG MU has when he plays defense because he gambles which causes all of the rotations to go out of whack not to mention his sometimes lackadaisical approach to hustling back on D.

SC's offense will be depending on MU turnovers to generate their offense. JjJ is a good player, but not a great fit for what we're facing in SC.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

His higher turnover rate does not get offset by his steal rate.....his steal rate gets offset by the worse defensive eFG MU has when he plays defense because he gambles which causes all of the rotations to go out of whack not to mention his sometimes lackadaisical approach to hustling back on D.

SC's offense will be depending on MU turnovers to generate their offense. JjJ is a good player, but not a great fit for what we're facing in SC.

This. SC is a nightmare matchup for Jj. I expect him to get some run early, and after a few turnovers, not seeing much of him the rest of the way.

Don't misunderstand me, that's not what I am hoping for. I hope he comes out and plays like he did against Creighton the first 10 minutes. We shall see, but they're suffocating D will be tough for JJ to handle.

[Silkk the Shaka]

If JJJ doesn't play hero ball, who will?

Reinhardt, duh!

[Silkk the Shaka]

You know South Carolina's defense is great, but here's a look at what exactly makes it so difficult to score on.

https://painttouches.com/2017/03/14/what-you-need-to-know-about-s-carolinas-defense/

This article is one of the best additions to scoop and the wider MU hoops community in recent memory. Thanks.