MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: mattyv1908 on November 19, 2014, 01:20:48 PM

Title: What to make from these first two games
Post by: mattyv1908 on November 19, 2014, 01:20:48 PM
First off, all the optimism on this board after the UTM game shouldn't be completely abandoned en masse like many have chosen following last night's loss.  That said, tOSU shouldn't be ranked in my opinion and it seemed like we turned a winnable game into a second half snooze fest.  Here's my take on the loss.

1.  Compared to anyone who played last night, Devante Gardner was a defensive guru.  I often argued that much of his defensive deficiency was imagined by many on this forum, but I think watching the mediocre buckeye post players make mediocre moves around our defenders for wide open buckets shows a whole new level of defensive ineptitude.  It's really the sole reason for last night's loss.  Even an average defensive effort results in a game decided by the final possessions.

2.  Buzz Williams should watch this game to figure out how to run an offense against the 2-3 zone.  Coach Wojo I felt used a very effective coaching decision to consistently find easy baskets all game long.  It's too bad a few were missed that should never have been.  A minor tweak (which will lead to point 3) I would have liked to see employed was getting Burton the ball at the high post/free throw line in the middle of the zone.  For as effective as we were at getting the ball to the block, there was very little effort to exploit the zone from the free throw line and Burton is the type of player who could do it most effectively on our current roster.

3.  Deonte Burton shows why he's not starting with his bafflingly poor play.  He was inconsistent, made poor shot selections, and was trying to play faster than necessary resulting in silly turnovers.  He probably has the most talent on the team but needs to find his rhythm or he won't capitalize on his ability.

4.  When Cohen looks more composed than Anderson against quality NCAA competition it poses as a problem for this team all season.

5.  I thought Wojo made great usage out of his timeouts that prevented the collapse as long as possible.  Every time the game got to within 9-13 he called a TO and it seemed the team responded to get the lead back to a manageable deficit.  It's too bad that emphasis was never able to be sustained as it appeared that when Marquette would cut the lead to around 7 then the same defensive laziness/poor shot selection offensively would take back over.

6.  This is going to be an extremely entertaining season if one can temper expectations and enjoy the ups and downs.

7.  Ners relax, Wilson took two 3's and made one.  He was a little hesitant (possibly due to the knee) to get into the lane but I didn't see too many MU players penetrating so maybe that's not an emphasis in our new coach's offense so who knows?  It's too small a sample size to even begin to grade our Wojo, but I suspect there will be an adjustment period of tailoring your system to the personnel you have.  If this team looks as clueless on the defensive end come conference play then I'd say there's reason for concern but for now it's too early.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: 79Warrior on November 19, 2014, 01:24:12 PM
First off, all the optimism on this board after the UTM game shouldn't be completely abandoned en masse like many have chosen following last night's loss.  That said, tOSU shouldn't be ranked in my opinion and it seemed like we turned a winnable game into a second half snooze fest.  Here's my take on the loss.

1.  Compared to anyone who played last night, Devante Gardner was a defensive guru.  I often argued that much of his defensive deficiency was imagined by many on this forum, but I think watching the mediocre buckeye post players make mediocre moves around our defenders for wide open buckets shows a whole new level of defensive ineptitude.  It's really the sole reason for last night's loss.  Even an average defensive effort results in a game decided by the final possessions.

2.  Buzz Williams should watch this game to figure out how to run an offense against the 2-3 zone.  Coach Wojo I felt used a very effective coaching decision to consistently find easy baskets all game long.  It's too bad a few were missed that should never have been.  A minor tweak (which will lead to point 3) I would have liked to see employed was getting Burton the ball at the high post/free throw line in the middle of the zone.  For as effective as we were at getting the ball to the block, there was very little effort to exploit the zone from the free throw line and Burton is the type of player who could do it most effectively on our current roster.

3.  Deonte Burton shows why he's not starting with his bafflingly poor play.  He was inconsistent, made poor shot selections, and was trying to play faster than necessary resulting in silly turnovers.  He probably has the most talent on the team but needs to find his rhythm or he won't capitalize on his ability.

4.  When Cohen looks more composed than Anderson against quality NCAA competition it poses as a problem for this team all season.

5.  I thought Wojo made great usage out of his timeouts that prevented the collapse as long as possible.  Every time the game got to within 9-13 he called a TO and it seemed the team responded to get the lead back to a manageable deficit.  It's too bad that emphasis was never able to be sustained as it appeared that when Marquette would cut the lead to around 7 then the same defensive laziness/poor shot selection offensively would take back over.

6.  This is going to be an extremely entertaining season if one can temper expectations and enjoy the ups and downs.

7.  Ners relax, Wilson took two 3's and made one.  He was a little hesitant (possibly due to the knee) to get into the lane but I didn't see too many MU players penetrating so maybe that's not an emphasis in our new coach's offense so who knows?  It's too small a sample size to even begin to grade our Wojo, but I suspect there will be an adjustment period of tailoring your system to the personnel you have.  If this team looks as clueless on the defensive end come conference play then I'd say there's reason for concern but for now it's too early.

OSU will be just fine. I always laugh when fans put down the team that just beat us.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: PGsHeroes32 on November 19, 2014, 01:29:01 PM
Yeah the defense was bad especially in transition

But considering they shot lights out to start, we couldn't buy a 3(a lot of ins and out) and we missed multiple bunnies. I was really surprised the way we hung around especially in the 1st half(really could have been tied).

As I have said many times. This years end results are pretty meaningless. Its all about improving for next year and the near future when we could be electric. I think this team will give other teams some fits especially on a night where the 3s are falling.

Another big relief(only one game) was the complete lack of fouls. That is huge til Luke comes back. I know OSU was basically shooting jumpers for at least half the game but it was still nice.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Ellisium on November 19, 2014, 01:33:09 PM
First off, all the optimism on this board after the UTM game shouldn't be completely abandoned en masse like many have chosen following last night's loss.  That said, tOSU shouldn't be ranked in my opinion and it seemed like we turned a winnable game into a second half snooze fest.  Here's my take on the loss.

1.  Compared to anyone who played last night, Devante Gardner was a defensive guru.  I often argued that much of his defensive deficiency was imagined by many on this forum, but I think watching the mediocre buckeye post players make mediocre moves around our defenders for wide open buckets shows a whole new level of defensive ineptitude.  It's really the sole reason for last night's loss.  Even an average defensive effort results in a game decided by the final possessions.

2.  Buzz Williams should watch this game to figure out how to run an offense against the 2-3 zone.  Coach Wojo I felt used a very effective coaching decision to consistently find easy baskets all game long.  It's too bad a few were missed that should never have been.  A minor tweak (which will lead to point 3) I would have liked to see employed was getting Burton the ball at the high post/free throw line in the middle of the zone.  For as effective as we were at getting the ball to the block, there was very little effort to exploit the zone from the free throw line and Burton is the type of player who could do it most effectively on our current roster.

3.  Deonte Burton shows why he's not starting with his bafflingly poor play.  He was inconsistent, made poor shot selections, and was trying to play faster than necessary resulting in silly turnovers.  He probably has the most talent on the team but needs to find his rhythm or he won't capitalize on his ability.

4.  When Cohen looks more composed than Anderson against quality NCAA competition it poses as a problem for this team all season.

5.  I thought Wojo made great usage out of his timeouts that prevented the collapse as long as possible.  Every time the game got to within 9-13 he called a TO and it seemed the team responded to get the lead back to a manageable deficit.  It's too bad that emphasis was never able to be sustained as it appeared that when Marquette would cut the lead to around 7 then the same defensive laziness/poor shot selection offensively would take back over.

6.  This is going to be an extremely entertaining season if one can temper expectations and enjoy the ups and downs.

7.  Ners relax, Wilson took two 3's and made one.  He was a little hesitant (possibly due to the knee) to get into the lane but I didn't see too many MU players penetrating so maybe that's not an emphasis in our new coach's offense so who knows?  It's too small a sample size to even begin to grade our Wojo, but I suspect there will be an adjustment period of tailoring your system to the personnel you have.  If this team looks as clueless on the defensive end come conference play then I'd say there's reason for concern but for now it's too early.

Spot on regarding the defense.  MU's defense projects to leak like a sieve.  If anything, the defense should be ahead of the offense to start the season.  Juan Anderson, being a senior, played extremely poor.  Carlino can't handle a pick and roll.  These two guys are just too slow to stop anyone from driving to the hoop.  
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: mattyv1908 on November 19, 2014, 01:33:16 PM
I think they're a quality team, but not a top 25 team.  Another way to look at it would be I don't consider them good enough to earn a 1-6 seed in the NCAAT.

They're not dominant inside.  The only reason they looked as good as they did was because of the zero interior defensive presense we gave them last night.

Their guards have potential but are not elite.

They let an undersized, undermanned opponent repeatedly find easy baskets.

The really good teams in the B1G will have a field day with tOSU.  Just wait a little while.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Nevada233 on November 19, 2014, 01:35:10 PM
Juan is gonna be more like he was the last 3 years..... Than he was against Wisc Lutheran and UT Martin....

Just with way more playing time.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: tower912 on November 19, 2014, 01:36:43 PM
Can't argue with much you wrote, mattyv
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: BM1090 on November 19, 2014, 01:41:24 PM
Agree with everything other than OSU not being a 1-6 seed. Think they will be top 25 all year and finish 2 or 3 in the Big Ten. Sure they will struggle in the post against bigger teams but they won't turn the ball over 18 times per game either. And they are pretty young/inexperienced and should vastly improve as the season goes on.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: mattyv1908 on November 19, 2014, 01:48:02 PM
Agree with everything other than OSU not being a 1-6 seed. Think they will be top 25 all year and finish 2 or 3 in the Big Ten. Sure they will struggle in the post against bigger teams but they won't turn the ball over 18 times per game either. And they are pretty young/inexperienced and should vastly improve as the season goes on.

If tOSU is the 2nd to 3rd  best team in the B1G then they are seriously overrated as a conference this season.  That team we played last night wouldn't have finished in the top 10 in the old Big East we played in just a couple seasons ago.

Put them in the current ACC and they'd finish bottom half.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: GooooMarquette on November 19, 2014, 01:50:17 PM
Agree with most everything except the comments about Davante's impact on our interior defense.

Our interior D was very poor last night, but we were dramatically undersized up front, with essentially no backups.  As a result, Steve and Juan had to avoid foul trouble against bigger, stronger and fresher opponents.  That alone can lead to matador defense.  Things will improve when Luke becomes eligible, but I'd expect much of the same against quality opponents until then.  And I kinda doubt things would have been any better last night with Davante and Steve or Davante and Juan, with no backups.  Davante's sheer size might have changed a couple of drives, but I don't think defensive skill would have been part of the equation.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: GGGG on November 19, 2014, 01:51:03 PM
Of course, that assumes that teams don't change / improve / regress during the year.

Two years ago, Marquette got embarrassed by Florida, lost to UWGB, and ended up winning the Big East and got to the Elite 8.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: mattyv1908 on November 19, 2014, 02:00:00 PM
Agree with most everything except the comments about Davante's impact on our interior defense.

Our interior D was very poor last night, but we were dramatically undersized up front, with essentially no backups.  As a result, Steve and Juan had to avoid foul trouble against bigger, stronger and fresher opponents.  That alone can lead to matador defense.  Things will improve when Luke becomes eligible, but I'd expect much of the same against quality opponents until then.  And I kinda doubt things would have been any better last night with Davante and Steve or Davante and Juan, with no backups.  Davante's sheer size might have changed a couple of drives, but I don't think defensive skill would have been part of the equation.


Again, you're buying into a false assumption perpetuated by people making excuses for Buzz's offensive/defensive substitution patterns with Gardner/Otule.

Gardner averaged more free throws made in a game than our entire team took last night.  Don't tell me he doesn't have an impact.  That's building in an excuse for the current poor performance we just witnessed.

Now I wasn't trying to bring up last year, just give a point of reference to what we just witnessed.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: GGGG on November 19, 2014, 02:02:01 PM

Again, you're buying into a false assumption perpetuated by people making excuses for Buzz's offensive/defensive substitution patterns with Gardner/Otule.


Why are you calling this a "false assumption?"  I thought it was pretty obvious that Otule was a better defensive center than Gardner was.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on November 19, 2014, 02:11:01 PM
If tOSU is the 2nd to 3rd  best team in the B1G then they are seriously overrated as a conference this season.  That team we played last night wouldn't have finished in the top 10 in the old Big East we played in just a couple seasons ago.

Put them in the current ACC and they'd finish bottom half.

KenPom data has them ranked 3rd in the Big10, with the projected record of tied for 2nd in conference play. They would rank 5th in the ACC under the same system, and they are 14th overall in the nation.

Trust me, they're good.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: mattyv1908 on November 19, 2014, 02:24:22 PM

Why are you calling this a "false assumption?"  I thought it was pretty obvious that Otule was a better defensive center than Gardner was.

Simple Sultan, because when you actually look at the numbers it becomes pretty obvious it was a false assumption.

Gardner's dRTG was 103.8 compared to Otule's 102.7.  These numbers indicate points allowed per 100 possessions a player is on the floor.  Marquette allowed 68.7 possessions/game last season so this difference accounts for less than a point/game difference in their defensive efficiency.

Compare Otule's oRTG of 108.9 to Gardner's oRTG of 127.6 and you can see that the only statistical certainty is that Gardner was an extremely superior offensive player.

Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott (106) yet you didn't see him getting substituted for defensive purposes last season did you?
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: MerrittsMustache on November 19, 2014, 02:32:43 PM
Simple Sultan, because when you actually look at the numbers it becomes pretty obvious it was a false assumption.

Gardner's dRTG was 103.8 compared to Otule's 102.7.  These numbers indicate points allowed per 100 possessions a player is on the floor.  Marquette allowed 68.7 possessions/game last season so this difference accounts for less than a point/game difference in their defensive efficiency.

Compare Otule's oRTG of 108.9 to Gardner's oRTG of 127.6 and you can see that the only statistical certainty is that Gardner was an extremely superior offensive player.

Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott (106) yet you didn't see him getting substituted for defensive purposes last season did you?

Creighton as a team had a DRtg of 103.9, which means they were, as a collective defense, roughly the statistical equivalent of 5 Davante Gardners ;)

IOW, defense wasn't exactly a priority. They were looking to outscore teams. Not a great example.


Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: brandx on November 19, 2014, 02:39:25 PM
Spot on regarding the defense.  MU's defense projects to leak like a sieve.  If anything, the defense should be ahead of the offense to start the season.  Juan Anderson, being a senior, played extremely poor.  Carlino can't handle a pick and roll.  These two guys are just too slow to stop anyone from driving to the hoop.  

You've obviously never played organized ball. Quit listening to the football cliches - this is basketball. Not to channel the hillbilly, but defense is work and trust and takes a long time.

We only have 2 guys who have ever played big minutes before in college. Even our upperclassmen have never played much other than Derrick.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: mattyv1908 on November 19, 2014, 02:41:11 PM
Creighton as a team had a DRtg of 103.9, which means they were, as a collective defense, roughly the statistical equivalent of 5 Davante Gardners ;)

IOW, defense wasn't exactly a priority. They were looking to outscore teams. Not a great example.




And yet they allowed fewer PPG than Marquette did last season...  Makes you wonder.  :P
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: brandx on November 19, 2014, 02:41:57 PM

Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott (106) yet you didn't see him getting substituted for defensive purposes last season did you?

Then why wasn't Gardner a lottery pick ;D

Exactly why many people hate over-reliance on statistics.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Lennys Tap on November 19, 2014, 02:42:47 PM


Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott (106) yet you didn't see him getting substituted for defensive purposes last season did you?

I love stats, but I hope this isn't supposed to prove anything regarding Gardner vs McDermott.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: mattyv1908 on November 19, 2014, 02:48:37 PM
Then why wasn't Gardner a lottery pick ;D

Exactly why many people hate over-reliance on statistics.


Look, I'm comparing thier oRTG to shed some light on the huge difference of ability between Gardner and Otule when measured against the miniscule difference between their perceived defensive value which is minute.  This really has nothing to do with who got drafted to the NBA.  The world is full of NCAAB stars who can't make it in the NBA.  McDermott is no different and will soon be out of the league.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Pakuni on November 19, 2014, 02:50:03 PM
Then why wasn't Gardner a lottery pick ;D

Exactly why many people hate over-reliance on statistics.


This, this and this again.
Advanced stats are great and all, but when they're used to imply in even the slightest sense that Davante Gardner had a comparable impact to Doug McDermott, it's time to actually watch a game.

Last night's advanced stats were in some key ways very ugly, but I feel much better about how the team performed last night than I did after watching last year's Buckeye beatdown.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Windyplayer on November 19, 2014, 02:50:39 PM
KenPom data has them ranked 3rd in the Big10, with the projected record of tied for 2nd in conference play. They would rank 5th in the ACC under the same system, and they are 14th overall in the nation.

Trust me, they're good.
Your statistical analysis is no substitute for what my eyes saw, bro.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: T-Bone on November 19, 2014, 02:50:49 PM
We gotta play fast and smart in order to steal some games.  
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: mattyv1908 on November 19, 2014, 02:51:07 PM
I love stats, but I hope this isn't supposed to prove anything regarding Gardner vs McDermott.

No it's not the intent at all.  The intent was to show how extremely close in real numbers Gardner and Otule were to defensive production last season despite the perception and in doing so put a guy on the bench more than needed when he was producing offensively at the rate of last season's POY (McDermott).
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Pakuni on November 19, 2014, 02:51:45 PM
Look, I'm comparing thier oRTG to shed some light on the huge difference of ability between Gardner and Otule when measured against the miniscule difference between their perceived defensive value which is minute.  This really has nothing to do with who got drafted to the NBA.  The world is full of NCAAB stars who can't make it in the NBA.  McDermott is no different and will soon be out of the league.

Define "soon."
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: mattyv1908 on November 19, 2014, 02:53:51 PM
This, this and this again.
Advanced stats are great and all, but when they're used to imply in even the slightest sense that Davante Gardner had a comparable impact to Doug McDermott, it's time to actually watch a game.

Last night's advanced stats were in some key ways very ugly, but I feel much better about how the team performed last night than I did after watching last year's Buckeye beatdown.

If you think I'm trying to compare Gardner to McDermott your reading comprehension needs work - or you're finding confirmation bias to your aversion to stats.

I was comparing Gardner to Otule and simply used McDermott as a reference point to how efficient Gardner's offensive productivity was.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: mattyv1908 on November 19, 2014, 02:54:55 PM
Define "soon."


Jae Crowder 'soon' Pakuni.

In other words, a draft pick who will be a limited role player for a few years and is only remembered for their college career.

Perhaps Van Horn would be a better comparison.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Pakuni on November 19, 2014, 03:02:19 PM
If you think I'm trying to compare Gardner to McDermott your reading comprehension needs work - or you're finding confirmation bias to your aversion to stats.

I was comparing Gardner to Otule and simply used McDermott as a reference point to how efficient Gardner's offensive productivity was.

So, you write "Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott" and then indignantly argue that you weren't making a comparison?

My reading comprehension isn't the problem here. Your understanding of the word "than," on the other hand, could use some work.
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/than

Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: MerrittsMustache on November 19, 2014, 03:05:16 PM
Jae Crowder 'soon' Pakuni.

In other words, a draft pick who will be a limited role player for a few years and is only remembered for their college career.

Perhaps Van Horn would be a better comparison.

Keith Van Horn played 9 seasons in the NBA and averaged 16 points and 7 boards. As a Bulls fan, I'd take those numbers from McDermott in a second (and so would he).

Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Pakuni on November 19, 2014, 03:10:24 PM
Jae Crowder 'soon' Pakuni.

In other words, a draft pick who will be a limited role player for a few years and is only remembered for their college career.

Perhaps Van Horn would be a better comparison.

Keith Van Horn played nine NBA seasons and started 463 out of 575 games (about 81 percent).
His career averages were 16 ppg/6.8 rpg, and he averaged 18/8 his first five seasons.

Anyone who predicted less than one month into Van Horn's career that he would be a "limited role player" and "soon out of the league" was proved to be a complete idiot.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Aughnanure on November 19, 2014, 03:10:35 PM
So, you write "Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott" and then indignantly argue that you weren't making a comparison?

My reading comprehension isn't the problem here. Your understanding of the word "than," on the other hand, could use some work.
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/than



Oh come on. You know what he means.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Pakuni on November 19, 2014, 03:13:08 PM
Oh come on. You know what he means.

Yes, I know he meant to compare Davante to McDermott.
He's not so sure, though.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: mattyv1908 on November 19, 2014, 03:16:11 PM

Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott (106) yet you didn't see him getting substituted for defensive purposes last season did you?

Now obviously you can see how you evidently misunderstood, ignored, omitted intentionally, or blatantly disregarded the essence of this portion of my statement which was referring to the defense/offense substitution patterns Buzz Williams employed with Gardner and Otule which I didn't agree with when the numbers didn't warrant the usage of this substitution pattern.

I'll forgive you of your petulant attitude if you'll overlook my typo.  Deal?
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/petulant
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Big Papi on November 19, 2014, 03:16:28 PM
The defense last night was bad.  Is it the players?  The coach? Learning curve on a new system?  Without a doubt, Wojo's defensive style looks more like Crean's system than Buzz's system.  Looks like we are playing the passing lanes looking for more deflections and turnovers.  Not my preferred defensive style but it will take time for the team to play that system well.

What I was disappointed about was the transition defense.  There was no desire to get back quickly.  That is unacceptable.  Jujuan makes a great steal....dribbles twice, gets pick pocketed and then just quits and sulks as it quickly becomes a 3 on 1 the other way.  Where's the heart?   Why does Carlino have to talk about heart and not giving up the last couple minutes of the game?     Wojo has the heart and desire.  I am going to say Carlino does as well.  If Wojo can't get it out of the rest of his players, they will be asked to leave.  
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Pakuni on November 19, 2014, 03:38:21 PM
Now obviously you can see how you evidently misunderstood, ignored, omitted intentionally, or blatantly disregarded the essence of this portion of my statement which was referring to the defense/offense substitution patterns Buzz Williams employed with Gardner and Otule which I didn't agree with when the numbers didn't warrant the usage of this substitution pattern.

I'll forgive you of your petulant attitude if you'll overlook my typo.  Deal?
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/petulant

http://www.wisebread.com/change-your-life-by-learning-how-to-admit-youre-wrong
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: willie warrior on November 19, 2014, 03:40:23 PM
Simple Sultan, because when you actually look at the numbers it becomes pretty obvious it was a false assumption.

Gardner's dRTG was 103.8 compared to Otule's 102.7.  These numbers indicate points allowed per 100 possessions a player is on the floor.  Marquette allowed 68.7 possessions/game last season so this difference accounts for less than a point/game difference in their defensive efficiency.

Compare Otule's oRTG of 108.9 to Gardner's oRTG of 127.6 and you can see that the only statistical certainty is that Gardner was an extremely superior offensive player.

Gardner was a more efficient offensive player than McDermott last season while having a better dRTG than McDermott (106) yet you didn't see him getting substituted for defensive purposes last season did you?
Do not ever let facts ever get in the way of the Sultan's exalted opinion.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: BM1090 on November 19, 2014, 04:00:50 PM
KenPom data has them ranked 3rd in the Big10, with the projected record of tied for 2nd in conference play. They would rank 5th in the ACC under the same system, and they are 14th overall in the nation.

Trust me, they're good.

Yep.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: GGGG on November 19, 2014, 04:53:34 PM
Simple Sultan, because when you actually look at the numbers it becomes pretty obvious it was a false assumption.

Gardner's dRTG was 103.8 compared to Otule's 102.7.  These numbers indicate points allowed per 100 possessions a player is on the floor.  Marquette allowed 68.7 possessions/game last season so this difference accounts for less than a point/game difference in their defensive efficiency.


So in other words, statistically I was correct.

But seriously thank you for this.  Defensive ratings have their flaws though, but I have no evidence if they are flawed in this case.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Blackhat on November 19, 2014, 05:41:09 PM
Personally, I'm not an advocate for extending the on ball area out as far as we seemed to be.  Leaves help defense too much floor to cover, imo.  But it is consistent with Coach K's philosophy, so it can work...I just don't think we have enough length right now to be extending our guards against a team like OSU.

We shall see, I was happy with our help D against UT-Martin but against OSU rotation lacked.  Quicker guards, etc.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: brandx on November 19, 2014, 05:54:58 PM
If you think I'm trying to compare Gardner to McDermott your reading comprehension needs work - or you're finding confirmation bias to your aversion to stats.


Stats have their place, but they don't measure everything and if that is all you rely on, then you will have no feel for what really happens.

Let me give an example, using baseball. There are more stats for baseball - both traditional and sabremetrically - than any other sport. Yet, there is not a single stat to measure probably the most important aspect of hitting: what a hitter does when he either gets or does not get the pitch he is looking for. How does a hitter do when he is guessing fastball and gets one? Or guessing fastball and getting a slider, etc.

I love getting into the stats, but if you discount the eye test, you will never really know what is going on.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Canned Goods n Ammo on November 19, 2014, 06:00:59 PM
Could Otule and DG's defensive metric be influenced by Buzz's mixing and matching?

In other words, most of the time, Chris was asked to be the "defender" and received the tougher assignments. DG usually received the easier of the assignments, or was subbed out if the match-up was bad (more so in his junior year).

Also, the college game is heavily based on team/rotational defense. I don't know how the defensive metrics capture those types of things.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: bilsu on November 19, 2014, 06:18:08 PM
Both teams got a lot of wide open shots in the lane. Basically, the result of both coaches trying to shut down the three point shot. Ohio St. started out 6 of 7 from the three, which meant MU had to concentrate on covering the perimeter, resulting in the middle being open.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Warhawk Warrior on November 19, 2014, 07:10:25 PM
Relax!!!
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Marqevans on November 19, 2014, 07:26:01 PM
First off, all the optimism on this board after the UTM game shouldn't be completely abandoned en masse like many have chosen following last night's loss.  That said, tOSU shouldn't be ranked in my opinion and it seemed like we turned a winnable game into a second half snooze fest.  Here's my take on the loss.

1.  Compared to anyone who played last night, Devante Gardner was a defensive guru.  I often argued that much of his defensive deficiency was imagined by many on this forum, but I think watching the mediocre buckeye post players make mediocre moves around our defenders for wide open buckets shows a whole new level of defensive ineptitude.  It's really the sole reason for last night's loss.  Even an average defensive effort results in a game decided by the final possessions.

2.  Buzz Williams should watch this game to figure out how to run an offense against the 2-3 zone.  Coach Wojo I felt used a very effective coaching decision to consistently find easy baskets all game long.  It's too bad a few were missed that should never have been.  A minor tweak (which will lead to point 3) I would have liked to see employed was getting Burton the ball at the high post/free throw line in the middle of the zone.  For as effective as we were at getting the ball to the block, there was very little effort to exploit the zone from the free throw line and Burton is the type of player who could do it most effectively on our current roster.

3.  Deonte Burton shows why he's not starting with his bafflingly poor play.  He was inconsistent, made poor shot selections, and was trying to play faster than necessary resulting in silly turnovers.  He probably has the most talent on the team but needs to find his rhythm or he won't capitalize on his ability.

4.  When Cohen looks more composed than Anderson against quality NCAA competition it poses as a problem for this team all season.

5.  I thought Wojo made great usage out of his timeouts that prevented the collapse as long as possible.  Every time the game got to within 9-13 he called a TO and it seemed the team responded to get the lead back to a manageable deficit.  It's too bad that emphasis was never able to be sustained as it appeared that when Marquette would cut the lead to around 7 then the same defensive laziness/poor shot selection offensively would take back over.

6.  This is going to be an extremely entertaining season if one can temper expectations and enjoy the ups and downs.

7.  Ners relax, Wilson took two 3's and made one.  He was a little hesitant (possibly due to the knee) to get into the lane but I didn't see too many MU players penetrating so maybe that's not an emphasis in our new coach's offense so who knows?  It's too small a sample size to even begin to grade our Wojo, but I suspect there will be an adjustment period of tailoring your system to the personnel you have.  If this team looks as clueless on the defensive end come conference play then I'd say there's reason for concern but for now it's too early.


Geez, and I thought if we had just hit 40% of our 3's in the first half we might of won the game.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Marqevans on November 19, 2014, 07:38:21 PM
Did we give any credit for causing a lot of turnovers?  Motta sure thought it was a problem.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: mattyv1908 on November 20, 2014, 10:25:29 AM
Could Otule and DG's defensive metric be influenced by Buzz's mixing and matching?

In other words, most of the time, Chris was asked to be the "defender" and received the tougher assignments. DG usually received the easier of the assignments, or was subbed out if the match-up was bad (more so in his junior year).

Also, the college game is heavily based on team/rotational defense. I don't know how the defensive metrics capture those types of things.

In and of itself this logic is flawed.  Defensive metrics only measure defensive possessions.  Therefore the dRTG of each Gardner and Otule are calculated from the amount of defensive possessions they saw.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Canned Goods n Ammo on November 20, 2014, 10:41:59 AM
In and of itself this logic is flawed.  Defensive metrics only measure defensive possessions.  Therefore the dRTG of each Gardner and Otule are calculated from the amount of defensive possessions they saw.

Right, but in theory, if (insert player) is always receiving a favorable defensive match-up, then would his dRTG be higher?

(I'm asking honestly because I don't know).
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: NersEllenson on November 20, 2014, 10:44:28 AM
Right, but in theory, if (insert player) is always receiving a favorable defensive match-up, then would his dRTG be higher?

(I'm asking honestly because I don't know).


Flawed:  Buzz wasn't subbing based on matchups.  It was strictly offense/defense/possession based.  It wasn't as if Team X subbed in dominant Big, and in turn Buzz pulled Gardner for Otule. 
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: MerrittsMustache on November 20, 2014, 11:37:50 AM
Right, but in theory, if (insert player) is always receiving a favorable defensive match-up, then would his dRTG be higher?

(I'm asking honestly because I don't know).


In theory, this could be correct but it doesn't necessarily apply to Otule/Gardner. DRtg applies to the team as a whole when the specific player is on the court. If Bill Russell was playing with 4 James Hardens then his DRtg wouldn't look very good. On the contrary, if James Harden was surrounded by 4 Bill Russells, his DRtg would likely be excellent.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Henry Sugar on November 20, 2014, 12:01:46 PM
In theory, this could be correct but it doesn't necessarily apply to Otule/Gardner. DRtg applies to the team as a whole when the specific player is on the court. If Bill Russell was playing with 4 James Hardens then his DRtg wouldn't look very good. On the contrary, if James Harden was surrounded by 4 Bill Russells, his DRtg would likely be excellent.

Exactly right. DRtg takes the team performance and then adjusts individual credit up or down based on defensive box score statistics. DRtg has flaws, in particular not accounting for defense of guarded shots and ball denial/reversal defense. It's a little like plus/minus, which I kind of hate admitting.

It's fine to use DRtg, but one should be honest about the flaws.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: Silkk the Shaka on November 20, 2014, 02:07:05 PM
Here's a not-so-crazy theory: Davante gets buckets. Plain and simple. When that happens, the opposition has to face a set defense. Ergo, the team defense actually improves due to his ridiculous offensive production, regardless of individual defensive skill. So it's not like you're just giving right back what he got on the offensive end. There's a huge spike in point production when he's on the floor, without much of an overall defensive drop-off because of it.

I miss Davante.
Title: Re: What to make from these first two games
Post by: bilsu on November 20, 2014, 08:00:59 PM
If tOSU is the 2nd to 3rd  best team in the B1G then they are seriously overrated as a conference this season.  That team we played last night wouldn't have finished in the top 10 in the old Big East we played in just a couple seasons ago.

Put them in the current ACC and they'd finish bottom half.
I think OSU is a top 20 team. You have to look at a team's ability to improve during the year. They will improve a lot more than UW will. UW is a very experienced team, so while they are playing very well now they will not improve much during the season. Basically, they might be 20 points better than Ohio St right now, they will be 10 points better at the start of the conference season and 5 points better at the start of Big 10 tournament. MU is a very young team, so as long as they do not give up they will improve more during the year than Villnova will.