Season predictions

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

More likely MU will beat Ohio State and lose at Arizona State.

Disagree. Ohio State is a top 10 team. Arizona State is a fringe top 100 team. They are a one man show. Most of the pieces around Carson graduated last season.

However, as Brew pointed out earlier, there always seems to be that non-conference game that we blow for no good reason.

[wadesworld]

Non-Conference

Southern - W
Grambling - W
Ohio State - L
New Hampshire - W
@ Arizona St - W
@ Cal State Fullerton - W
Miami - W
Creighton/ASU/SDSU - W
@ Wisconsin - L
IUPUI - W
Ball State - W
New Mexico - W
Samford - W

Out-of-Conference Record: 11-2

Big East

@ Creighton - L
DePaul - W
@ Xavier - W
Seton Hall - W
@ Butler - W
@ Georgetown - L
Villanova - W
Providence - W
@ St. Johns - L
Butler - W
@ Seton Hall - W
Xavier - W
Creighton - W
@ DePaul - W
Georgetown - W
@ Villanova - L
@ Providence - W
St. John's - W

Regular Season Record: 26-5 (14-4)

I want to give us the win against Ohio State, but I just can't do it. It is a winnable game but point guard is our weakness while it is their greatest strength. They have a very balanced team that should finish in the top 10 this year. Our best hope to beat them is by getting Amir Williams in foul trouble. He is their only true big. He goes down and suddenly you have 6"8 players playing the 5. Oxtule would eat them alive.

Thanks for the copy and paste of my predictions. Needed the reminder.

[LloydMooresLegs]

"In the postseason, Marquette sweeps their three games in NYC en route to their first Big East Tournament title and goes into the NCAAs ranked in the top-10 while earning the #2 seed in the West, where we join old friends Louisville. MU easily sweep aside their first two opponents before a stern test from VCU in the Sweet 16. Marquette ekes out a win and advances to play Louisville. Derrick Wilson's tendency to not turn the ball over allows Marquette to accomplish what was such a difficult feat with Junior at the helm, beating Pitino's Cardinals. MU joins Duke, Kansas, and Michigan State in the Final Four, losing a close game to the Blue Devils before Coach K goes on to cut down the nets for the fifth time of his career, with Jabari Parker edging out Ender Wiggins for Final Four POY honors."

That is the next logical step in the progression of Buzz era MUBB.  S16, S16, E8, F4...

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Thanks for the copy and paste of my predictions. Needed the reminder.

Honestly didn't notice. But great minds think alike?

[Benny B]

Non-Con
Southern-W
Grambling-W
Ohio State-W
New Hampshire-W
Arizona St-W
Wooden Legacy-W, W, L (Creighton)
Wisconsin-W
IUPUI-W
Ball State-W
New Mexico-W (OT)
Samford-W

Big East
@Creighton-W
DePaul-W
@Xavier-W
Seton Hall-W
@Butler-W
@Georgetown-W
Villanova-W
Providence-W
@St. Johns-W
Butler-W
@Seton Hall-W
Xavier-W
Creighton-L
@DePaul-W
Georgetown-W
@Villanova-L
@Providence-W
St. John's-W

Non Con: 12-1
Big East: 16-2 (1st)
BET: 2-1 (Loss in Championship Game to G-Town)
NCAA: As a 3-seed, MU goes to the Final Four via a Midwest Regional semi-final win over Syracuse

[brewcity77]

Disagree. Ohio State is a top 10 team. Arizona State is a fringe top 100 team. They are a one man show. Most of the pieces around Carson graduated last season.

However, as Brew pointed out earlier, there always seems to be that non-conference game that we blow for no good reason.

And location, location, location. It will be easy to get up for the nationally recognized, top-10 Buckeyes. But after a plane ride to Arizona, relaxing as the team gets out of the cold, to start a long trip, against an unranked team...shades of LSU (at least from a month away).

[MerrittsMustache]

Non-Conference
Southern - W
Grambling - W
Ohio State - L
New Hampshire - W
@ Arizona St - W
@ Cal State Fullerton - W
Miami/GW - W
Creighton/ASU/SDSU - L
@ Wisconsin - W
IUPUI - W
Ball State - W
New Mexico - L
Samford - W

Big East
@ Creighton - L
DePaul - W
@ Xavier - L
Seton Hall - W
@ Butler - W
@ Georgetown - L
Villanova - W
Providence - W
@ St. Johns - W
Butler - W
@ Seton Hall - W
Xavier - W
Creighton - W
@ DePaul - W
Georgetown - W
@ Villanova - W
@ Providence - L
St. John's - W

Out-of-Conference Record: 10-3
Conference Record: 14-4 (2nd Place)
Conference Tournament: 1-1
Regular Season Record: 25-8

4-seed in the NCAA Tournament and a loss in Sweet 16.

End of Season Record: 27-9


- Scoop Panic Moment #1: 15-point loss to Ohio State
- Scoop Panic Moment #2: Loss in the Wooden Champ Game (bonus panic if loss is to Creighton)
- Scoop Panic Moment #3: Loss to New Mexico in Vegas
- Scoop Panic Moment #4: 1-2 start in conference play, including ugly W over DePaul
- Scoop Panic Moment #5: Loss in Big East Tournament prior to Champ Game

[Coleman]

Non-Conference
Southern - W
Grambling - W
Ohio State - L
New Hampshire - W
@ Arizona St - W
@ Cal State Fullerton - W
Miami/GW - W
Creighton/ASU/SDSU - L
@ Wisconsin - W
IUPUI - W
Ball State - W
New Mexico - L
Samford - W

Big East
@ Creighton - L
DePaul - W
@ Xavier - L
Seton Hall - W
@ Butler - W
@ Georgetown - L
Villanova - W
Providence - W
@ St. Johns - W
Butler - W
@ Seton Hall - W
Xavier - W
Creighton - W
@ DePaul - W
Georgetown - W
@ Villanova - W
@ Providence - L
St. John's - W

Out-of-Conference Record: 10-3
Conference Record: 14-4 (2nd Place)
Conference Tournament: 1-1
Regular Season Record: 25-8

4-seed in the NCAA Tournament and a loss in Sweet 16.

End of Season Record: 27-9


- Scoop Panic Moment #1: 15-point loss to Ohio State
- Scoop Panic Moment #2: Loss in the Wooden Champ Game (bonus panic if loss is to Creighton)
- Scoop Panic Moment #3: Loss to New Mexico in Vegas
- Scoop Panic Moment #4: 1-2 start in conference play, including ugly W over DePaul
- Scoop Panic Moment #5: Loss in Big East Tournament prior to Champ Game

Well done. I think you nailed it

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Non Con: 12-1
Big East: 16-2 (1st)
BET: 2-1 (Loss in Championship Game to G-Town)
NCAA: As a 3-seed, MU goes to the Final Four via a Midwest Regional semi-final win over Syracuse

You think that at 30-4 we would only be a three seed? That's a one seed record right there.

[Big Papi]

Non-Con
Southern-W
Grambling-W
Ohio State-L
New Hampshire-W
Arizona St-W
Wooden Legacy-W, W, W
Wisconsin-L
IUPUI-W
Ball State-W
New Mexico-W
Samford-W

Big East
@Creighton-L
DePaul-W
@Xavier-W
Seton Hall-W
@Butler-W
@Georgetown-L
Villanova-W
Providence-W
@St. Johns-L
Butler-W
@Seton Hall-W
Xavier-W
Creighton-W
@DePaul-W
Georgetown-W
@Villanova-L
@Providence-W
St. John's-W

Non Con: 11-2
Big East: 14-4
Overall 25-6
NCAA: 3/4-seed
 

 
 
 

[Benny B]

You think that at 30-4 we would only be a three seed? That's a one seed record right there.

Honestly, I'm anticipating a conference RPI that ranks around #5 or #6... the bottom of our conference is just as bad as any other Big 6, but we no longer have the numbers at the top and in the middle to counteract that imbalance (not to mention the non-con SOS of our conference brethren generally sucks).  Even at 30-4, MU's RPI ceiling is going to start at #1 (due to our non-con SOS) but will wither away to the low teens by the end of the Big East schedule.  That said, my guess is that MU lands somewhere in the 6-12 range on the committee's s-curve, and I'm banking on MU getting bumped a seed in order to stay close to home this year.

[Coleman]

Honestly, I'm anticipating a conference RPI that ranks around #5 or #6... the bottom of our conference is just as bad as any other Big 6, but we no longer have the numbers at the top and in the middle to counteract that imbalance (not to mention the non-con SOS of our conference brethren generally sucks).  Even at 30-4, MU's RPI ceiling is going to start at #1 (due to our non-con SOS) but will wither away to the low teens by the end of the Big East schedule.  That said, my guess is that MU lands somewhere in the 6-12 range on the committee's s-curve, and I'm banking on MU getting bumped a seed in order to stay close to home this year.

Man, gimme some of that Kool Aid

[LAMUfan]

Just read this over on deadspin and it made me think of Derick Wilson

[Which bad traits in a young player are good indicators for future improvement, a la strikeout rate with Nate Silver's PECOTA? (Is it still mainly turnovers?)

In general, it's the ability to create offense. That manifests itself in usage rate, unassisted shots (not part of SCHOENE) and yes, turnovers. The latter is the most counterintuitive because obviously they are negative in the short term. In the long term, there is some evidence that high-turnover players develop more, presumably because they're trying to make plays and eventually those mistakes will become successes.]

http://regressing.deadspin.com/nba-stat-guru-kevin-pelton-on-greg-oden-the-fraudulent-1453982395/@kylenw

I hadn't looked at turnovers like that before.  So you would think that Derick's ceiling would be lower, even though he does not turn the ball over based on this thought process

[Galway Eagle]

You think that at 30-4 we would only be a three seed? That's a one seed record right there.

What if those 4 losses are Grambling, IUPUI, Ball State and Samford? I'd say it'd be a 3 seed record then. 

[brewcity77]

What if those 4 losses are Grambling, IUPUI, Ball State and Samford? I'd say it'd be a 3 seed record then. 

That would be a 1-seed for sure. We'd be riding a 21-game winning streak, carry wins over Ohio State, Wisconsin, Arizona State, New Mexico, Miami, and likely one more tournament team in non-con play, and probably at least another 8 wins over tourney teams (assuming 4 Big East teams make the field, 6 regular season and 2 in NYC).

I have a feeling if we had a 14-0 or better record against the rest of the field on March 16, 2014, we'd be on the top line no matter who those 4 losses in 2013 were to.

[Galway Eagle]

That would be a 1-seed for sure. We'd be riding a 21-game winning streak, carry wins over Ohio State, Wisconsin, Arizona State, New Mexico, Miami, and likely one more tournament team in non-con play, and probably at least another 8 wins over tourney teams (assuming 4 Big East teams make the field, 6 regular season and 2 in NYC).

I have a feeling if we had a 14-0 or better record against the rest of the field on March 16, 2014, we'd be on the top line no matter who those 4 losses in 2013 were to.

I beg to differ, maybe a 2 but theyd never give a team a one with 4 horrendous losses like those, particularly Grambling we'd probably be their only win of the season. 

[MUfan12]

Interesting to read this today. Have to say, I'm not as optimistic. The backcourt will be an issue, especially early on.

20-11, 12-6 in conference. Hope I am very wrong.

[Eldon]

All that matters is the postseason.

Prediction:

We get a 5-seed.  We narrowly avoid an upset from first-four stud Boise State (bonus prediction: first opponent in MU history with no active porn stars).  We go on to lose to Oregon in the 2nd round.  Final score: 67-54

[TVDirector]

Non-Conference
Southern - W
Grambling - W
Ohio State - L
New Hampshire - W
@ Arizona St - W
@ Cal State Fullerton - W
Miami/GW - W
Creighton/ASU/SDSU - W
@ Wisconsin - L
IUPUI - W
Ball State - W
New Mexico - W
Samford - W

Big East
@ Creighton - L
DePaul - W
@ Xavier - W
Seton Hall - W
@ Butler - W
@ Georgetown - L
Villanova - W
Providence - W
@ St. Johns - L
Butler - W
@ Seton Hall - W
Xavier - W
Creighton - W
@ DePaul - W
Georgetown - W
@ Villanova - L
@ Providence - W
St. John's - W

Out-of-Conference Record: 11-2
Conference Record: 14-4
Conference Tournament: 2-1
Regular Season Record: 25-6

4-seed in the NCAA Tournament and a loss in elite 8.

End of Season Record: 27-9

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Just read this over on deadspin and it made me think of Derick Wilson

[Which bad traits in a young player are good indicators for future improvement, a la strikeout rate with Nate Silver's PECOTA? (Is it still mainly turnovers?)

In general, it's the ability to create offense. That manifests itself in usage rate, unassisted shots (not part of SCHOENE) and yes, turnovers. The latter is the most counterintuitive because obviously they are negative in the short term. In the long term, there is some evidence that high-turnover players develop more, presumably because they're trying to make plays and eventually those mistakes will become successes.]

http://regressing.deadspin.com/nba-stat-guru-kevin-pelton-on-greg-oden-the-fraudulent-1453982395/@kylenw

I hadn't looked at turnovers like that before.  So you would think that Derick's ceiling would be lower, even though he does not turn the ball over based on this thought process

That's interesting. I love the advanced stats stuff.

With Derrick, it might be the opposite of how you coach a guy like Jerel. Jerel wanted to attack all of the time. He wasn't necessarily selfish, but he'd go 1 vs 3 if he thought he had an angle. Coaches had to dial him back, and when his efficiency finally met his usage, he was an all-american. (baseball equivalent: Carlos Gomez)

Derrick is different.

The coaches might have to push Derrick a little take a chance, and/or help him develop some favorite spots on the floor where he can be effective on offense. Derrick's never going to be a prolific scorer, but if he can develop a efficient offensive arsenal (maybe go 3-6 from the field), he can be a very good player. (baseball equivalent: Ihavenoidea)

[dgies9156]

"In the postseason, Marquette sweeps their three games in NYC en route to their first Big East Tournament title and goes into the NCAAs ranked in the top-10 while earning the #2 seed in the West, where we join old friends Louisville. MU easily sweep aside their first two opponents before a stern test from VCU in the Sweet 16. Marquette ekes out a win and advances to play Louisville. Derrick Wilson's tendency to not turn the ball over allows Marquette to accomplish what was such a difficult feat with Junior at the helm, beating Pitino's Cardinals. MU joins Duke, Kansas, and Michigan State in the Final Four, losing a close game to the Blue Devils before Coach K goes on to cut down the nets for the fifth time of his career, with Jabari Parker edging out Ender Wiggins for Final Four POY honors."

Look, if we beat Pitino for the regional final WE'RE GOING NATIONAL! As Dickie V would say, "ALL THE WAY BABY."

Pitino and lord I hate him, is one of the best coaches I've ever seen. All the guy does is win.

Jabari Parker gets eaten alive by Derrick and wonders why he ever left the Midwest.

[Golden Avalanche]

I'm not caring about actual numbers but I feel Marquette loses more often than people expect. The depth is primarily freshmen, though talented, which causes concern. Add to it, the emphasis on taking hand checks out of the game will kill Marquette's defense. They've gotten away with it for most of the past decade but their physical style will be whistled heavily. Result is some deep foul trouble leading to ineffective stretches and easy points the other way.

[Eye]

Wow, I'm usually an optimist with these, looks like I fall a little closer to the norm this year

Non-conference - 11-2
Big East - 14-4 (25-6)
BET - 3-0 (28-6)
NC2As - 2-1

Final 30-7