Don't want to be a Badger obsessor but....

[MarquetteDano]

Seeing the numerous posts from Badgers fans on the JS Online article today got me thinking.  What would the Badger's record be if they played our schedule?

By the way, this is using the Sagarin rankings which generously give UW-Madison the ranking of ninth best the country (as of Feb 13th)....

vs. Prairie View A&M WIN 1-0  
vs. Bucknell WIN 2-0  
vs. Wisconsin Green Bay WIN 3-0  
vs. South Dakota WIN 4-0  
vs. Duke (Neutral) LOSS 4-1  
vs. Gonzaga (Neutral) WIN 5-1  
at  Wisconsin Milwaukee WIN 6-1  
vs. Longwood WIN 7-1  
vs. Texas A&M Corpus Chris WIN 8-1  
vs. Marquette WIN 9-1 (they would have played this at home to equal our home game)
vs. Centenary WIN 10-1
vs. Mississippi Valley St. WIN 11-1
at  Vanderbilt LOSS 11-2
vs. West Virginia WIN 12-2 (1-0)
at  Rutgers WIN 13-2 (2-0)
at  Pittsburgh LOSS 13-3 (2-1)
vs. Notre Dame WIN 14-3 (3-1)
at  Louisville LOSS 14-4 (3-2)
VS. DePaul WIN 15-4 (4-2)  
at  Notre Dame LOSS 15-5 (4-3)
vs. Connecticut WIN 16-5 (5-3)
vs. Syracuse WIN 17-5 (6-3)
at  Villanova LOSS 17-6 (6-4)
at  South Florida WIN 18-6 (7-4)
at  Georgetown LOSS 18-7 (7-5)


Marquette is currently 15-10 (6-6).  So, according to Sagarin the only real difference is the Wisconsin, UConn, and Gonzaga  games at this point.  Amazing how much stronger our schedule is compared to their's at this point since the Badgers are 19-5 (9-3)

[Tugg Speedman]

I tried to make a similar point here ...

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=24425.msg271872#msg271872

of the current ranked teams, we have played 12 and Wisc has played 3.  

We have three wins over ranked teams.  Wisconsin has three wins over ranked teams (but give them props as one of these wins was against #1).  

We have no wins against a top 25 teams on the road.  Wisconsin has no wins against a top 25 teams on the road.  Wisconsin's best road victory is against MU.

Lastly I also noted that Duke schedule was even worse.  They have played exactly one team that is currently ranked, UNC a few days ago.  They too have no road wins against a top 25 ranked team.  Duke's best road (neutral) victory is against MU.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Seeing the numerous posts from Badgers fans on the JS Online article today got me thinking.  What would the Badger's record be if they played our schedule?


Marquette is currently 15-10 (6-6).  So, according to Sagarin the only real difference is the Wisconsin, UConn, and Gonzaga  games at this point.  Amazing how much stronger our schedule is compared to their's at this point since the Badgers are 19-5 (9-3)

According to Ken Pom, they've played a tougher schedule than we have.  27th best to 44th best.  Pomeroy would have them at 19-5, same as they are today.

[Tugg Speedman]

Only tougher because of we played five non-conference teams ranked 300 or higher (including Centenary which is ranked dead last at 345).  While the bottom of our schedule was a joke, the top is much tougher. 

[Markusquette]

I think Wisconsin does well with our schedule.  They're a very good team.  Taylor is really an impressive player.

[Tugg Speedman]

I think Wisconsin does well with our schedule.  They're a very good team.  Taylor is really an impressive player.

Yes, they do because they are a really good team this year.

But turn it around, how do we do with their schedule?  I say we look at lot better as the road games in conference Wisc has played are nowhere near as tough as our road games.

[brewcity77]

According to Ken Pom, they've played a tougher schedule than we have.  27th best to 44th best.  Pomeroy would have them at 19-5, same as they are today.

Which exposes the flaws in some systems. Saying their schedule is tougher than ours is simply ridiculous when you look at the number of ranked teams we've played. But it also shows why Marquette should be scheduling better cupcakes. SOS is impacted far more by the difference of routinely playing the 200th best team in the country instead of the 340th rather than the difference of playing the 5th best team versus the 45th. If we scheduled 175-250 cupcakes, we'd have a top ten SOS every year.

[Tugg Speedman]

Let's get the numbers correct ....

MU's SoS is 28 and our non-conf SoS is 299

Wisc. SOS is 27 and their non-conf. is 233

So who has the harder conference schedule?

[esotericmindguy]

Let's get the numbers correct ....

MU's SoS is 28 and our non-conf SoS is 299

Wisc. SOS is 27 and their non-conf. is 233

So who has the harder conference schedule?

Don't let logic get it the way of ripping MU.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Let's get the numbers correct ....

MU's SoS is 28 and our non-conf SoS is 299

Wisc. SOS is 27 and their non-conf. is 233

So who has the harder conference schedule?

Pomeroy lists this to your point...

• Wisconsin's B11 SoS=.8752 which is the easiest in their conference
• MU's BE SoS=.9018 which is the third hardest in conference

[MarquetteDano]

According to Ken Pom, they've played a tougher schedule than we have.  27th best to 44th best.  Pomeroy would have them at 19-5, same as they are today.

As someone posted earlier, can you look at the neutral/away schedules for Marquette and Wisconsin and earnestly say Wisconsin has had an even comparable schedule to Marquette's?

Wisconsin's biggest win neutral/away this year is Marquette.  Not saying they are not a good team but I don't think they would be 19-5 with our schedule.

[radome]

Very interesting analysis. You picked Wisconsin but I think that much of this could be said for any team outside of the Big East right now.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Let's get the numbers correct ....

MU's SoS is 28 and our non-conf SoS is 299

Wisc. SOS is 27 and their non-conf. is 233

So who has the harder conference schedule?

You mean the numbers change daily.  Those were the correct numbers I posted as of yesterday.

[Tugg Speedman]

They change as games get played (their is another stat that is "projected SoS" which assumes you played your entire schedule but even that changes with updated records) ....

I guess playing Georgetown at home mattered more than playing tOSU at home.

[MerrittsMustache]

According to Ken Pom, they've played a tougher schedule than we have.  27th best to 44th best.  Pomeroy would have them at 19-5, same as they are today.

Simply looking at SOS alone doesn't tell the whole story. The "top" of MU's schedule is harder than the "top" of Wisconsin's schedule. The big difference is that the bottom of MU's schedule is significantly easier than the bottom of Wisconsin's schedule. In other words, Wisconsin beat up on better cupcakes than MU did.

Wisconsin's 3rd-toughest game (according to Kenpom rankings) was ND on a neutral court. Excluding the Wisco game, MU played a total of 6 games that were tougher than that. MU currently has a Kenpom rating of 28, making them the 6th toughest game on Wisconsin's schedule to date. On MU's schedule, the 28th-ranked team would be their 13th toughest game.

I don't think it's as simple as to say, "They have a better SOS so their record would be better than ours against our schedule."

[brewcity77]

Very interesting analysis. You picked Wisconsin but I think that much of this could be said for any team outside of the Big East right now.

Go figure, we obsess over Becky. But let's take a look. I'll use kenpom.com for ratings, because it's the easiest site. Let's look at the five toughest teams we've played on the road, and then compare that to other teams. I’m going to include the average rating of those 5 opponents as well as the record. Let’s see how our road trials stack up against the top 20 teams in the nation. I’ll also bold a few that merit discussion. Those in green are positives, those in red are negatives.

#28 Marquette: 5 Pitt, 13 Villanova, 14 Georgetown, 17 Notre Dame, 23 Louisville; Average: 14.4 (0-5)

#1 Ohio State: 6 Wisconsin, 18 Illinois, 29 Florida, 38 Minnesota, 41 Florida State; Average: 26.4 (4-1)
#2 Kansas: 47 Nebraska, 50 Baylor, 55 Michigan, 57 Colorado, 69 California; Average: 55.6 (5-0)
#3 Duke: 19 Maryland, 40 St. John's, 41 Florida State, 70 Miami, 87 NC State; Average: 51.4 (3-2)
#4 Texas: 2 Kansas, 42 Texas A&M, 48 Michigan State, 60 USC, 82 Oklahoma State; Average: 46.8 (4-1)
#5 Pittsburgh: 13 Villanova, 14 Georgetown, 24 West Virginia, 71 Providence, 75 Rutgers; Average: 39.4 (5-0)
#6 Wisconsin: 18 Illinois, 28 Marquette, 30 UNLV, 48 Michigan State, 52 Penn State; Average: 35.2  (1-4)
#7 BYU: 30 UNLV, 67 Colorado State, 96 Buffalo, 112 Creighton, 127 Air Force; Average: 86.4 (4-1)
#8 Purdue: 1 Ohio State, 6 Wisconsin, 18 Illinois, 24 West Virginia, 25 Virginia Tech; Average: 14.8 (2-3)
#9 Kentucky: 11 UNC, 23 Louisville, 27 Vanderbilt, 29 Florida, 35 Alabama; Average: 25 (0-5)
#10 San Diego State: 7 BYU, 30 UNLV, 43 New Mexico, 49 Gonzaga, 69 California; Average: 39.6 (4-1)
#11 North Carolina: 3 Duke, 18 Illinois, 33 Clemson, 68 Boston College, 70 Miami; Average: 38.4 (3-2)
#12 Washington: 42 Texas A&M, 51 Washington State, 53 UCLA, 60 USC, 69 California; Average: 55 (3-2)
#13 Villanova: 15 Syracuse, 21 Connecticut, 71 Providence, 75 Rutgers, 128 South Florida; Average: 62 (4-1)
#14 Georgetown: 13 Villanova, 15 Syracuse, 17 Notre Dame, 37 Temple, 40 St. John’s; Average: 24.4 (2-3)
#15 Syracuse: 5 Pittsburgh, 21 Connecticut, 23 Louisville, 28 Marquette, 40 St. John’s; Average: 23.4 (2-3)
#16 Arizona: 12 Washington, 51 Washington State, 69 California, 80 Oregon, 81 Stanford; Average: 58.6 (4-1)
#17 Notre Dame: 5 Pittsburgh, 15 Syracuse, 28 Marquette, 40 St. John’s, 128 South Florida; Average: 42.6 (2-3)
#18 Illinois: 6 Wisconsin, 38 Minnesota, 52 Penn State, 64 Northwestern, 66 Indiana; Average: 45.2 (1-4)
#19 Maryland: 3 Duke, 13 Villanova, 52 Penn State, 68 Boston College, 94 Georgia Tech; Average: 46 (2-3)
#20 Missouri: 2 Kansas, 4 Texas, 42 Texas A&M, 57 Colorado, 80 Oregon; Average: 37 (1-4)

Ohio State: Wow, they’ve played a pretty tough road slate, and won almost everywhere. There’s a reason they got up to #1, and looking at this, god only knows why they didn’t stay there despite the loss to Wisco.
Purdue: I am impressed. The only team that is remotely close to us in SOS of their top 5 road opponents, and they’ve bagged 2 wins in those game. Beware the Boilermakers.

Kansas: Egad, they have played no one away from home. Sure, they’re 5-0, but Nebraska is really their toughest road opponent? They don’t remotely deserve their #1 ranking over OSU.
Wisconsin: This should put to rest any real strength of schedule debate. They have played one opponent that is tougher than the 5th toughest opponent we’ve played, and they lost that game. My guess is that if they had played our scheduule, they’d sport the same 0-5 mark we have, seeing as the only top 60 team they’ve beaten on the road.
BYU: This is why I’m not that scared of BYU. They’ve played no one, and still lost one of the games. They haven’t played a single game that is on par with our 5th best roadie.
Villanova: Really? An average of 62? And they’re a Big East team? And while they do play 4 of their last 6 on the road, two of those are Seton Hall and DePaul.

The bottom line is that none of these teams has played a schedule as tough as ours, and only one really comes close. So when it comes to comparing what teams have done on the road, it’s not just Wisconsin, but rather the rest of the country. No one has a tougher top 5 road games than we’ve had, and most teams aren’t even close to that. Our conference schedule hasn’t just been tough, it’s probably been one of the toughest in the country among teams in the running for the tournament. It’s not just who we play, but where we play them. How many of these teams would have a winning record if they had to go play Pitt, Villanova, Georgetown, Notre Dame, and Louisville? And that’s not even mentioning that the sixth best team we’ve played on the road is #27 Vanderbilt, which would rank as the 1st or 2nd best opponent for 9 of the 20 teams on the list. Also bear in mind that they wouldn’t be at that position for any of the Big East teams on the list, so only 6 of the top 20 teams in the country can claim two true road opponents that are tougher than our 6th toughest. Suffice to say, our road schedule has been brutal.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Which exposes the flaws in some systems. Saying their schedule is tougher than ours is simply ridiculous when you look at the number of ranked teams we've played. But it also shows why Marquette should be scheduling better cupcakes. SOS is impacted far more by the difference of routinely playing the 200th best team in the country instead of the 340th rather than the difference of playing the 5th best team versus the 45th. If we scheduled 175-250 cupcakes, we'd have a top ten SOS every year.

Well, I would disagree only to the extent that the ratings system is balancing every opponent.  Our cupcakes were SOOO BAD that it hurts us. No question our conference schedule has been better but Ken Pom is just rating every piece of data, not just certain ones.  What's also interesting is that Ken Pom thinks the Big Ten is the best conference in the country with the Big East second.  That may or may not be true, but because of imbalanced scheduling it all comes down to who you play in the conference twice, and those you play only once, where are those games played. 

[brewcity77]

Well, I would disagree only to the extent that the ratings system is balancing every opponent.  Our cupcakes were SOOO BAD that it hurts us. No question our conference schedule has been better but Ken Pom is just rating every piece of data, not just certain ones.  What's also interesting is that Ken Pom thinks the Big Ten is the best conference in the country with the Big East second.  That may or may not be true, but because of imbalanced scheduling it all comes down to who you play in the conference twice, and those you play only once, where are those games played. 

I've been amazed at those rankings that still have the Big Ten ahead of the Big East. I saw a stat (sadly can't remember where) that listed straight records by conference. The toughest non-conference strength of schedule was the SWAC, mainly because they are used as cupcakes by the major conferences, but the Big East had the second strongest. So despite being at the top of the heap, we still go out of our way as a conference to play the best of the rest. And in terms of winning percentage, we also had the second best non-conference winning percentage. Only the Big 12 was better, by a few percentage points, and their SOS lagged well behind us (6th, I believe).

But I agree whole-heartedly that we need to schedule tougher cupcakes. Centenary, Prairie View, those guys only hurt us come Selection Sunday.

[Marquette84]

I've been amazed at those rankings that still have the Big Ten ahead of the Big East. I saw a stat (sadly can't remember where) that listed straight records by conference. The toughest non-conference strength of schedule was the SWAC, mainly because they are used as cupcakes by the major conferences, but the Big East had the second strongest. So despite being at the top of the heap, we still go out of our way as a conference to play the best of the rest. And in terms of winning percentage, we also had the second best non-conference winning percentage. Only the Big 12 was better, by a few percentage points, and their SOS lagged well behind us (6th, I believe).

But I agree whole-heartedly that we need to schedule tougher cupcakes. Centenary, Prairie View, those guys only hurt us come Selection Sunday.

One only needs to put the two conference's teams in one rank-ordered list:

The Big Ten is better at the extremes--more top 10 teams and none ranked higher than 100th.
The Big East is better in the middle.

Having a stronger middle doesn't automatically translate to having the tougher rated conference.


1. Ohio State
5. Pittsburgh
6. Wisconsin
8 Purdue
13. Villanova
14. Georgetown
15. Syracuse
17. Notre Dame
18 Illinois
21. UConn
23. Louisville
24. West Virginia
28. Marquette
34. Cincinnati
38. Minnesota
40. St. Johns
48. Michigan State
52. Penn State
55 Michigan
62. Seton Hall
64. Northwestern
66. Indiana
71. Providence
75. Rutgers
84. Iowa
128 USF
193 DePaul

[rocky_warrior]

Just wanted to thank brewcity77 for the "toughest road schedule" analysis.  Using only top 5 might be a bit biased in our favor, but it certainly does help *partially* explain why road wins have been so hard to come by for MU.  Glad we took care of USF, Rutgers, and UWM.