[Cracked Sidewalks] Marquette remains one of only 321 teams without a road win vs. RPI top 25

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Marquette remains one of only 321 teams without a road win vs. RPI top 25

Written by: jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com (bamamarquettefan1)

Several MU cynics agreed with the appraisal of former basketball great Len Elmore toward the end of today’s loss to Georgetown that MUs inability to knock off a quality opponent on the road could hurt their chances Selection Sunday.

The problem with that logic is that all of MUs road losses have been to teams in the RPI Top 25, and if you eliminate every team that has yet to win at an RPI Top 25 this year, then you are only left with a 24 team tournament.  Here are the only teams to accomplish what MU failed to do today:

3 wins at RPI top 25 – Pitt
2 wins at RPI top 25 – Florida, Syracuse, Gtown
1 win at RPI top 25 – No. 1 Ohio State and 19 other teams
0 wins at RPI top 25 – Marquette and 320 other teams

Marquette is 3-0 on the road when not playing a top 25 team, so the “we just can’t win on the road” argument doesn’t work.  Here is what has happened this year when a team has gone into the gym of an RPI Top 25 team, like MU did at Georgetown today:

67% - lose by double digits
24% - lose by single digits
9% - win

Yes, my colleagues tease me with the “no double digit losses” banner hanging from the rafters in the background of the Bradley Center on this page, but I wouldn’t be bragging about keeping it close if we were playing in Conference USA.

The “must win” games are not the games at Georgetown or UConn.  Those are the games that propel you to a high seed if you become the 25th team in the country to pull one off this year.

The “must win” games are the road games and when the tough teams come into the Bradley Center – so our fans can’t jump on the “only win at home” argument.

Must Wins: Gtown loss doesn't hurt - SJU loss would
MU was an 8-seed before the Georgetown game and will be and 8 or 9 seed after the loss.  MU will still be one of the Top 30 teams in the country in Sagarin and Pomeroy.

MU needs to beat a St. John’s team that just won at Cincy.  A win in that game would make MU one of only eight teams with four or more wins against the RPI top 25 on any court.  A loss in this game or any home game or at Seton Hall at the end of the year are the games that can drop MU from a middle seed to the bubble.

The five assists today are a concern.  The +0 on turnovers against a team that usually loses that battle is a concern.  The games played by Davante Gardner (12 points), Chris Otule (9 rebounds) and Vander Blue (4 rebounds, solid defense and handling the ball with no turnovers) are good signs.  

The stars didn’t have great games, and as I wrote before the game, MU basically had to play it’s second best game of the year to win today.  Tuesday, the pressure is on.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2011/02/marquette-remains-one-of-only-321-teams.html

[brewcity77]

Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant take on today's game, and a great example of why we should still plan on being in the tournament. Great read, bama. I hope that everyone panicking right now takes the time to read this and realize that today really had very little bearing on our selection to the field of 68, but rather only impacted what seed we get in that field.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant take on today's game, and a great example of why we should still plan on being in the tournament. Great read, bama. I hope that everyone panicking right now takes the time to read this and realize that today really had very little bearing on our selection to the field of 68, but rather only impacted what seed we get in that field.

Who is panicking?  I think most people, myself included, believe we are in the NCAA tournament.  If, however, we lose to SJU or Cincinnati, and we finish at 9-9, there will be concern.  I think this idea of 8-10 makes it is absurd, but no one is panicking, but cause for concern...yes.

[Tugg Speedman]

Please forward this to Willie Warrior as he does not get this at all.

[79Warrior]

Who is panicking?  I think most people, myself included, believe we are in the NCAA tournament.  If, however, we lose to SJU or Cincinnati, and we finish at 9-9, there will be concern.  I think this idea of 8-10 makes it is absurd, but no one is panicking, but cause for concern...yes.

I do not think 9-9 will do it for MU. No qualty non-conference wins, no signature road win. just not gonna happen uness we make a run in NYC.

I think SJU pulls off the upset Tuesday.

[bamamarquettefan]

Who is panicking?  I think most people, myself included, believe we are in the NCAA tournament.  If, however, we lose to SJU or Cincinnati, and we finish at 9-9, there will be concern.  I think this idea of 8-10 makes it is absurd, but no one is panicking, but cause for concern...yes.

Thanks brewcity!  

Chicos, there definitely are some panicking, and by that I mean the scatterred posters thinking Buzz won't be extended for losing at  top 25 (we definitely need to fire all 321 coaches who haven't done it), or that if we lead at any point in a game that we weren't supposed to win and then lose the lead, that it means we aren't any good.  I believe your comments are much more measured than some today (if I can sum up, you seem to be frustrated because MU has the talent to take it to an even higher level and hasn't), but some really do seem to think this insanely tough road  games mean we aren't a good team.

Once there, who knows, maybe we can be like that 18-13 Georgia team that played the kind of insane schedule we did and then made the big run.

This year is all about making the tournament in my mind.   Next year will be about securing the right seed.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I do not think 9-9 will do it for MU. No qualty non-conference wins, no signature road win. just not gonna happen uness we make a run in NYC.

I think SJU pulls off the upset Tuesday.

SJU is hard to figure out.  I pegged them for the NCAAs before the season started.  Watching them against UCLA last week, they didn't look very good against an above average (but nothing special) UCLA team (UCLA is a lot like us, they have talent, but they have stretches in nearly every game where you just cringe).

I think MU wins on Tuesday.  Also believe it's a must win, because if you lose it you have to make up for it elsewhere...the calendar is running out if they are in that situation.

[warriors1965]

I do not think 9-9 will do it for MU. No qualty non-conference wins, no signature road win. just not gonna happen uness we make a run in NYC.

I think SJU pulls off the upset Tuesday.

If MU can't beat SJU at home, then they don't deserve to get in.

But what I really don't understand is why some MU fans are literally consumed with concern over other fans who think MU won't make the tourney with a 9-9 record.  Instead of being concerned about whether MU will take care of business the rest of the season (and they will get in if they win the games they should win), they're obsessed over other fans opinions of how MU will fare.

[bamamarquettefan]

I do not think 9-9 will do it for MU. No qualty non-conference wins, no signature road win. just not gonna happen uness we make a run in NYC.

I think SJU pulls off the upset Tuesday.

The "no signature road wins" can't disqualify MU.  It sounds fine in a vacuum, but you look through every team in the country and you can't get close to coming up with 50 teams to put ahead of MU who have quality road wins.  

The non-conference win is not a consideration in selections.  MU is one of only 13 teams to have beaten 3 RPI top 25 teams this season, so we are a 4 seed based on top 25 wins.  Again, if we were still playing in Conference USA or the Great Midwest then we'd need quality non-conference wins because we'd play so few top teams in conference play.  But the committee does not distinguish.

On your appraisal of 9-9 overall though - I'm not disagreeing except that i only believe MU needs one Big East tourney win if they go 9-9.  But I will admit I will be restless waiting to see us appear on a 12-seed line if we go 9-9 with one win.

SJU looked tough today and Tuesday could go either way.  

It is a "must win" in that regard.

[brewcity77]

I do not think 9-9 will do it for MU. No qualty non-conference wins, no signature road win. just not gonna happen uness we make a run in NYC.

I think SJU pulls off the upset Tuesday.

9-9 will have us on the bubble, but I again ask who from the other conferences will knock us out?

Would a 9-7 Clemson or Maryland, neither of whom have any big road wins either and come from a conference that isn't nearly the meat-grinder ours is, be the teams to keep us out?

Or maybe it's UCLA or Washington State. But wait, no signature road wins there. UCLA did beat BYU, but that was in their own back yard, and isn't really any more impressive than our wins over Notre Dame or Syracuse, and let's be honest, 12-6 projected in the PAC-10 isn't as impressive as 9-9 in the Big East. And if that's the case, Washington State's projected 9-9 in the PAC-10 isn't worth mentioning, nor is them having only one quality win at home over Washington.

Maybe the team that will keep us out is Alabama, who has wins over Kentucky at home, Tennessee on the road (ooh, signature!), and...erm...uhm...well, no one else, really. Okay, how about another SEC power, Georgia beat Kentucky too! Also at home. But wait...they haven't beaten anyone other than Kentucky. Will their 9-7 SEC projected record get them in ahead of us? If so, the committee's gone batty. Alabama has a chance because of their 12-4 conference record, but outside of the SEC the biggest win in their 8-6 non-conference slate is Lipscomb.

I feel like I'm screaming at a wall when I say this, but the bubble is REALLY REALLY REALLY SOFT!!! When you look at some of those other "bubble teams", you realize that beating Bucknell at home is a bigger accomplishment in the non-conference than many of them had.

Lately, every time we lose, this board becomes filled with negative nancy's that seem to think we are spiraling out of control. I'm not saying I expect 9-9. I'm not saying I'd be particularly happy with 9-9. I'm just saying that this year, with this bubble, with the expanded field, we'd probably get in. And all I ask is that if you're going to cry from the mountaintops that we have no chance, then why at 6-5 do 91.6% of the bracketologists out there have us in the field, and 70% have us as a 10-seed or better? That means that in the eyes of the people who get paid to make these guesses, we have some leeway. And as we were just above .500 before those predictions were made, that indicates that .500 in conference would be enough.

[mwbauer7]

Brilliant, brilliant, brilliant take on today's game, and a great example of why we should still plan on being in the tournament. Great read, bama. I hope that everyone panicking right now takes the time to read this and realize that today really had very little bearing on our selection to the field of 68, but rather only impacted what seed we get in that field.

+1. Thanks again bama.

[79Warrior]

SJU is hard to figure out.  I pegged them for the NCAAs before the season started.  Watching them against UCLA last week, they didn't look very good against an above average (but nothing special) UCLA team (UCLA is a lot like us, they have talent, but they have stretches in nearly every game where you just cringe).

I think MU wins on Tuesday.  Also believe it's a must win, because if you lose it you have to make up for it elsewhere...the calendar is running out if they are in that situation.

I hope you are right. SJU is now 7-5 and has @MU,Pitt, Depaul, @Nova, SH and USF remaining. Pretty good looking schedule for them as their fans think they go 4-2 and end up in great shape. We have more to lose with the game Tuesday.  I think they beat DePaul, SH and USF and end up at least 10-8.

We have to win Tuesday or I believe it will be Tap City for MU.

[Tugg Speedman]

Using KenPom stats for comparisons ...

Duke has not beaten a top 25 team on the road this year.  Their best non-home win (away or neutral) is ... MU! (MU was #27 yesterday)  MU ranks as their third best overall win, the better wins are UNC (11) and Maryland (18).

Of the current top 25, Duke has played just one team, beating UNC at home earlier this week.

--

Wisconsin has not beaten a top 25 team on the road this year.  Their best "away" win is ... MU!  MU ranks as their 4 best overall win this year.  the better wins are tOSU #1, Purdue #9 and IL #15.

Of the current top 25,Wisconsin has played three teams, beating tOSU and Purdue at home and losing to ND on a neutral court.

--

Vandy has not beaten a top 25 team on the road this year.  Their best "away" win is ... Nebraska (45) on a neutral court.  MU ranks as their second best overall win this year.  The better win was Kentucky (8) yesterday.  Close behind are Belmont (31) and St. Marys (33).

Of the current top 25,Vandy has played three teams, beating Kentucky and St. Marys at home and losing to WVU on on an neutral court.
--

MU has not beaten a top 25 team on the road this year.  Their best away win was Rutgers (#76).  MU's best wins this year were Syracuse (#16), ND (#17) and WVU (#24).

Of the current top 25, MU has played 12 teams, beating ND (home), WVU, and Syracuse.  They lost to Duke, Wisc, Vandy, Pitt, ND (away), Nova, Louisville, Uconn and G-Town.

----

MU compares favorably to all three (not as good but favorably) in everything except best road win.  But MU still has Uconn (23), Seton Hall (61) and possibly the BE tourney to improve on this.

[Warrior]

If MU can't beat SJU at home, then they don't deserve to get in.

But what I really don't understand is why some MU fans are literally consumed with concern over other fans who think MU won't make the tourney with a 9-9 record.  Instead of being concerned about whether MU will take care of business the rest of the season (and they will get in if they win the games they should win), they're obsessed over other fans opinions of how MU will fare.

I agree! The Warriors best days are ahead of them, possibly some of the worst also. These are the good old days!

[Henry Sugar]

bump...

http://beyondthearc.nbcsports.com/2011/02/15/marquettes-record-far-better-than-you-think/

also, Pudner rocks

[mu_hilltopper]

[Dwizzle3]

Has some of the RPI info from Cracked Sidewalks, but puts some things in perspective.

http://beyondthearc.nbcsports.com/2011/02/15/marquettes-record-far-better-than-you-think/

At least other people notice this as well. Hopefully the selection committee doesn't overlook us assuming we can win these last few games.

[Skatastrophy]

I'm going to start printing this banners up and hang them in the 'rafters' above my cube