Offensive Four Factors - 2026-27 projection

[Jay Bee]

FTrate (32.8%; #243 last year)
We lose Chase Ross (42.7%), but add Minessale (50.2%!!) and  I think DO is capable of putting up solid numbers here. Ben Gold (22.3%) was not a big FT guy but Sananda Fru figures to get to the line a lot after posting a 52.9% FTrate with Louisville (only shot 61.1% from the line, but #FTsNoMatta).

The #243 rank last season was Shaka's BEST at MU. We won't be strong in this area, but I think we'll set a new SSS MU-career high.

OR% (29.7%; #216)
With Nigel and Adrien expected to get big minutes, becoming great on the o-boards doesn't look like it's in the cards for this season, but I do think we could improve a bit here. Fru was exceptional last year (14.9%) while Gold pulled in just 6.4%. Add in more minutes for Josh Clark and some guys who I think can help (DO, MPII, frosh Alex and Ethan) and then a big wild card for me (Nolan) and we could be somewhat mediocre (e.g., 150ish??). Minessale had a paltry 2.9% OR% last year, but I think a lot of that is by St. Thomas design and with his wingspan and role with MU, could see him take a significant leap here.

TO% (16.0%; #141)
I don't see a lot of areas for significant improvement (Nigel was at 17.7%; Adrien was 15.2%.. don't see Nigel at least going lower in any meaningful way). We lose Ben who was at just 9.1%. Fru's 20.2% will hopefully drop (16%-ish?), but all in all I think we see a bit of an uptick in our TO%. I'd project something closer to #200 than #150.

eFG% (50.5%; #215)
Improvement here is a must. Our 2FG% of 52.6% (#147) wasn't horrible, but considering the level of missed layups a year ago, I'm hoping for modest improvement. Let's tick it up to 53.0%.

3FG% was awful (31.8%; #289), "led" by Chase at 29.5% and Ben's brutal 26.4%, which are gone. You add in Fru (not expected to shoot a lot from deep) and Minessale and, based on Nolan's rough 30.0% a year ago may have doubts. However, I think Nolan can be a lot better and even the youngsters replacing some of Chase's attempts have a low bar to reach. Let's go with 34%.

I expect 3FGA/FGA to be down a bit (42.1% last year.. let's drop it to 40% but could be even lower).. so the 53% and 34% with that mix would put MU at 52.2% eFG% which would put us around the #130s.

I want to project this higher and it's absolutely possible. It will be key (eFG% reigns supreme).

Overall, I'm going to project #52 in the land for AdjOE. Really hoping for mid-30's and it's doable, but I can't quite get there yet. #pray

[Jay Bee]

Rando thoughts on usage

We're in the position again of not having many potential medium-high to high usage guys. It's a concern for me, but I think we're in for a season where various guys have big nights followed by small nights. A guy like DO.. he may score 14 or 16 one night, the next 4. There are a lot of dudes like that on our roster. 
 
Nigel will be high usage. Royce can maybe be medium-high. Nolan as well. After that, not sure I see it from anyone else over the course of the season.
 
Nigel – 28% usage with better efficiency feels about right, but there are absolutely scenarios where it's more in the 31-32% range and ORtg suffers.
 
Royce was only 19.4% last season. Would like to see him pushed up to 22-23%.
 
Nolan – a high 31.6% at St. Thomas. Roles are much different, but I would like to see him in also in the low-to mid 20's. We need another guy that can press the issue on offense. I think in some matchups, he may go off and score bunches of points by attacking.
 
Adrien was at just 14.4%. I don't think he's a high usage guy, but could see him jump up more than anyone else – 18-19% while maintaining a lofty ORtg feels good to me pawz.
 
Fru – 17.8% at Louisville. I would love to see a big jump for him, but I don't know that he has it in him pawz. Is there a dream scenario where he is incredible on offense at a 22% usage? Heck yes. It's not a far fetched dream.. but I also am not convinced that's him. More so hoping we're at 19-20% with an incredible ORtg.

[Newsdreams]

No pickle ball today?

[Jay Bee]

No pickle ball today?

Tonight. League during the game fml

[Newsdreams]

Tonight. League during the game fml

Your league Truly suxs