Offensive Four Factors - 2026-27 projection

[Jay Bee]

FTrate (32.8%; #243 last year)
We lose Chase Ross (42.7%), but add Minessale (50.2%!!) and  I think DO is capable of putting up solid numbers here. Ben Gold (22.3%) was not a big FT guy but Sananda Fru figures to get to the line a lot after posting a 52.9% FTrate with Louisville (only shot 61.1% from the line, but #FTsNoMatta).

The #243 rank last season was Shaka's BEST at MU. We won't be strong in this area, but I think we'll set a new SSS MU-career high.

OR% (29.7%; #216)
With Nigel and Adrien expected to get big minutes, becoming great on the o-boards doesn't look like it's in the cards for this season, but I do think we could improve a bit here. Fru was exceptional last year (14.9%) while Gold pulled in just 6.4%. Add in more minutes for Josh Clark and some guys who I think can help (DO, MPII, frosh Alex and Ethan) and then a big wild card for me (Nolan) and we could be somewhat mediocre (e.g., 150ish??). Minessale had a paltry 2.9% OR% last year, but I think a lot of that is by St. Thomas design and with his wingspan and role with MU, could see him take a significant leap here.

TO% (16.0%; #141)
I don't see a lot of areas for significant improvement (Nigel was at 17.7%; Adrien was 15.2%.. don't see Nigel at least going lower in any meaningful way). We lose Ben who was at just 9.1%. Fru's 20.2% will hopefully drop (16%-ish?), but all in all I think we see a bit of an uptick in our TO%. I'd project something closer to #200 than #150.

eFG% (50.5%; #215)
Improvement here is a must. Our 2FG% of 52.6% (#147) wasn't horrible, but considering the level of missed layups a year ago, I'm hoping for modest improvement. Let's tick it up to 53.0%.

3FG% was awful (31.8%; #289), "led" by Chase at 29.5% and Ben's brutal 26.4%, which are gone. You add in Fru (not expected to shoot a lot from deep) and Minessale and, based on Nolan's rough 30.0% a year ago may have doubts. However, I think Nolan can be a lot better and even the youngsters replacing some of Chase's attempts have a low bar to reach. Let's go with 34%.

I expect 3FGA/FGA to be down a bit (42.1% last year.. let's drop it to 40% but could be even lower).. so the 53% and 34% with that mix would put MU at 52.2% eFG% which would put us around the #130s.

I want to project this higher and it's absolutely possible. It will be key (eFG% reigns supreme).

Overall, I'm going to project #52 in the land for AdjOE. Really hoping for mid-30's and it's doable, but I can't quite get there yet. #pray