Big East offseason news

[MuMark]

https://x.com/jeffborzello/status/2046335280198598668?s=61

[Uncle Rico]

https://x.com/jeffborzello/status/2046335280198598668?s=61

Wow.  I know he was erratic the past season but that's still a big loss moving forward. 

[wisblue]

Wow.  I know he was erratic the past season but that's still a big loss moving forward. 

Maybe this is one of the reasons he was erratic.

[tower912]

Doesn't play for MU.  Therefore the injury matters.

[Uncle Rico]

Maybe this is one of the reasons he was erratic.

Certainly didn't help, I'm sure!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If their new coach can get them to gel,  Providence is going to be really really good next season

[MarquetteMike1977]

https://x.com/reallukefonts/status/2047905287709794785?s=46&t=sotL7QsNvvOZPdWl6-_vhA

[MuMark]

https://x.com/daveborges/status/2049214895451725962?s=61

[MuMark]

https://x.com/bigeastvault/status/2050396207437267157?s=61

[MU82]

https://x.com/bigeastvault/status/2050396207437267157?s=61

I'm glad that an objective ratings service roughly matches my own optimistic expectations for next season.

[Uncle Rico]

I'm glad that an objective ratings service roughly matches my own optimistic expectations for next season.

St. Louis is way too low. I'm sharing this information.

[TheButlerDidIt]

But we only had 12 wins last year? How is this even possible?!?

[NCMUFan]

I'm glad that an objective ratings service roughly matches my own optimistic expectations for next season.

Hope it happens.  Lots of games to play before determining if this prediction is accurate.

[Uncle Rico]

On a serious note, am curious what the game plan at St. John's is for next season.  Lotsa off-season left. 

[Scoop Snoop]

St. Louis is way too low. I'm sharing this information.

Thank you for being just the messenger.

[tower912]

On a serious note, am curious what the game plan at St. John's is for next season.  Lotsa off-season left. 

Spend a lot of money.

[rocky_warrior]

But we only had 12 wins last year? How is this even possible?!?

Wait until you dig in and see how many min are expected for Caedin in that projection.

(Hint: it's over 11min)

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

But we only had 12 wins last year? How is this even possible?!?

It's almost like W/L record doesnt tell the whole story of how good or bad a team is and isn't predictive of next seasons results.

[MU82]

Wait until you dig in and see how many min are expected for Caedin in that projection.

(Hint: it's over 11min)

I hadn't seen that before, and I confess that I don't know how to use it to determine minutes per game per player. What I can see is that Hamilton is projected behind the freshman Egbuonu in whatever the measurement is.

[Jay Bee]

I hadn't seen that before, and I confess that I don't know how to use it to determine minutes per game per player. What I can see is that Hamilton is projected behind the freshman Egbuonu in whatever the measurement is.

It shows 18 with 29% of minutes. 29% x 40 = 11.6 (plus add a tiny bit for assumed overtime games). Rounded, Torvik has 18 at 12, which seems about right as to what SS would like to do.

[Skatastrophy]

Where are we talking about John Fanta killing it on the Kentucky Derby announcer team?

[rocky_warrior]

Where are we talking about John Fanta killing it on the Kentucky Derby announcer team?

Did I miss the Derby again? Dang it!

(Though, derby parties are fun)

[tower912]

Nope.  Delayed.

[rocky_warrior]

Nope.  Delayed.

Oh, when will I miss it then?

[tower912]

You did.  As always, history was made.

[rocky_warrior]

You did.  As always, history was made.

Just did some reading "a $3.1 million winner's purse." - apparently it'd be wiser to have a tall child and teach him to play basketball!  Or...be NJ.

[Uncle Rico]

You did.  As always, history was made.

Oh, man.  Going to have to boycott the second leg of the Triple Crown or really cheer for a man to win.

[The Sultan]

You did.  As always, history was made.

Not really. A horse won again.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Just did some reading "a $3.1 million winner's purse." - apparently it'd be wiser to have a tall child and teach him to play basketball!  Or...be NJ.

But will people pay you exorbitant amounts of money to breed with your son?

[rocky_warrior]

But will people pay you exorbitant amounts of money to breed with your son?

That's a little personal!  And I'd need to have a son.  But I'm guessing yes.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Oh, man.  Going to have to boycott the second leg of the Triple Crown or really cheer for a man to win.

That was probably the craziest horse race I recall seeing.  From the jockey falling off the horse as they are entering the gates to all the longshots that were in the final stretch.  Just crazy.

[MU82]

That was probably the craziest horse race I recall seeing.  From the jockey falling off the horse as they are entering the gates to all the longshots that were in the final stretch.  Just crazy.

Yeah, it was fun.

And now everyone can go back to ignoring horse racing for the next 364 days.

[Scoop Snoop]

That was probably the craziest horse race I recall seeing.  From the jockey falling off the horse as they are entering the gates to all the longshots that were in the final stretch.  Just crazy.

"Falling off?"  With the horse going down to the ground, he got off as quickly as possible and clear of the 1300+ lb. horse so that he didn't become embedded in the track.

I had a horse that one time snagged the edge of the pavement, tripped, and toppled over sideways. Fortunately, his shoulder hit the ground first. Otherwise, my leg would probably have been broken in 2-3 places. and if he had rolled over me, I might not be here typing this. The jockey had time to get off. I didn't, and I had a very sore leg but no broken bones. Riders have been killed by a horse going over backwards and landing on them.

[muwarrior69]

https://x.com/bigeastvault/status/2050396207437267157?s=61

Marquette's ranking for the 25/26 season was .7677. The projection for next season is .9084. The starting team is the same except we replaced Ben and Chase with Fru and Minessale. Were Ben and Chase that much of a liability last season or was it Tre, Lowery and Sean?

[tower912]

Nm

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Marquette's ranking for the 25/26 season was .7677. The projection for next season is .9084. The starting team is the same except we replaced Ben and Chase with Fru and Minessale. Were Ben and Chase that much of a liability last season or was it Tre, Lowery and Sean?

Some of it was the five players you mentioned...but you know added positives are part of the reason for optimistic projections, not just removed negatives.

Fru and Minessale are huge additions. Egbuonuo has the potential to be a contributor as a freshman. Ian, Nash, and Ethan could also surprise and have instant impact. We bring back eight players who all have the chance to develop and get better.

[brewcity77]

Marquette's ranking for the 25/26 season was .7677. The projection for next season is .9084. The starting team is the same except we replaced Ben and Chase with Fru and Minessale. Were Ben and Chase that much of a liability last season or was it Tre, Lowery and Sean?

The bigger deal is that NJ, Adrien, and Royce next year project to be bigger contributors than Sean, Zaide, & Royce last year because they have more productive track records

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Marquette's ranking for the 25/26 season was .7677. The projection for next season is .9084. The starting team is the same except we replaced Ben and Chase with Fru and Minessale. Were Ben and Chase that much of a liability last season or was it Tre, Lowery and Sean?

1) In season improvement.  MU was #142 in T Rank through Jan 1, but finished #75.

2) MU was #363 in luck according to KenPom last season.  Statistically, MU's record was worse than it's expected record.

3) Fru and Minessale were both top 250 in BPR on Evan Miya.  Nigel James was our only top 250 player last season. IIRC, Chase was in the 300s and Gold was in the 800s.

4) Season over season improvement expected from returning players, especially James, Stevens, and Parham.

[SchnitzelBoy]

I'm loving all the optimism this offseason, especially because it feels more justifiable than last year.

Let's put it this way: 
-All 5 (expected) starters coming into next year were have a clear path to building on productive campaigns from last year. And I know MU was hot garbage for most of it but they ended respectably, especially considering the freshman and sophomore classes were big factors. The "core three" are all young enough to expect sizable jumps in production each offseason, which alone is enough to be excited about next season.
-Minessale and Fru also have loads of experience AND some runway to improve. It also helps how they fit into the system perfectly.
-Our bench looks to be more of a factor than last year. MPIII will be of collage age and DO might not have to spend the entire offseason recovering from surgery. Egbuonu and Ian Miletic might contribute as well.
-If Nash Walker is healthy, it couldn't hurt to add some outside shooting. I also think Ian Miletic will help in this regard + MPIII getting more minutes will help our 3-point %
-This one is going to be controversial but Josh Clark and Caedin Hamilton aren't going to get worse? Clark especially has so many physical tools that if he can get on the court and actually belong, we'll benefit from his rebounding, rim protection and lob threat. I wouldn't be shocked if CH looks like he belongs, but I'd rather not have to count on it like the past 2 years.

[IrwinFletcher]

-Minessale and Fru also have loads of experience AND some runway to improve. It also helps how they fit into the system perfectly.

This isn't talked about enough. These two fit perfectly into what Shaka loves to do offensively.

[brewcity77]

This isn't talked about enough. These two fit perfectly into what Shaka loves to do offensively.

At least what Nevada likes to do offensively. We'll have to see how similar the offense is with him off to Siena.

[lawdog77]

Was listening to NBA radio in the car. One of the guests were talking about the analytics of shooting 3's, layups and free throws. He stated this analytic is flawed. Only one of the Top 10 teams in 3 point shots attempted made it out of the first round (Cleveland). This style of game only works if you have multiple people who shoot a high percentage from three. For the season, they calculated the fastbreak scenario where it is passed out for an open three. That play ended up being a net negative. Hopefully Shaka was listening.

[swoopem]

At least what Nevada likes to do offensively. We'll have to see how similar the offense is with him off to Siena.

Speaking of Nevada, I know we filled one of the assistant openings with Shaka's former assistant at VCU but any word on the other opening? I'm surprised we haven't seen anything.

Maybe he's pulling a Wojo and promoting from within?

[The Sultan]

Was listening to NBA radio in the car. One of the guests were talking about the analytics of shooting 3's, layups and free throws. He stated this analytic is flawed. Only one of the Top 10 teams in 3 point shots attempted made it out of the first round (Cleveland). This style of game only works if you have multiple people who shoot a high percentage of threes. For the season, they calculated the fastbreak scenario where it is passed out for an open three. That play ended up being a net negative. Hopefully Shaka was listening.

It sounds like a conversation with a bunch of people who think they understand analytics, but they really don't understand analytics. It's not simply about shooting a bunch of threes. You even said it yourself...it's about shooting threes, layups and getting to the line. And it certainly isn't "flawed."

The highest scoring team in the league, and the defending champion, OKC Thunder, are pretty average in three point attempts, but they get a ton of points in the paint and get to the line a decent amount.

Here is their shot chart.

This is exactly what Shaka wants. He just doesn't want them jacking up three pointers. He wants them scoring at the rim.

[lawdog77]

I believe they understand analytics. Their main point was that this style of basketball does not work if you do not have the players who can make those shots. Too many coaches are sticking to this style when they dont have the players to play that way. He was looking at teams like Golden State, Memphis, Chicago, Milwaukee, and first round exits by Charlotte, Boston, Portland,Atlanta,and Phoenix.

[The Sultan]

I believe they understand analytics. Their main point was that this style of basketball does not work if you do not have the players who can make those shots. Too many coaches are sticking to this style when they dont have the players to play that way. He was looking at teams like Golden State, Memphis, Chicago, Milwaukee, and first round exits by Charlotte, Boston, Portland,Atlanta,and Phoenix.

What "style" is he talking about? Shooting lots of threes? That's not the only thing analytics says is a good shot.

Is he actually advocating taking more mid-range shots or something?

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I believe they understand analytics. Their main point was that this style of basketball does not work if you do not have the players who can make those shots. Too many coaches are sticking to this style when they dont have the players to play that way. He was looking at teams like Golden State, Memphis, Chicago, Milwaukee, and first round exits by Charlotte, Boston, Portland,Atlanta,and Phoenix.

Open 3s and shots in the paint are the best shots to take. Obviously, you need the players to make those shots at an efficient rate. 

Taking worse shots (midrange) sure doesn't sound like the right solution. 

The problem last season wasn't the offense - it was the players.

[lawdog77]

The problem last season wasn't the offense - it was the players.

Their argument, which I agree with, is you need to cater the offense to the personnel. So by that, the problem was the offense.

[The Sultan]

Their argument, which I agree with, is you need to cater the offense to the personnel. So by that, the problem was the offense.

No team is going to run a less efficient offense. Did the Celtics take too many threes? Sure...but that means they needed to get the ball to the rim more.  Shaka would agree with that.

[JTJ3]

There was no system that was going to make our offense good last season.

And we still generated an insane amount of good looks at the rim, so the staff stuck with it.  Again, it worked, the players just couldnt make layups.

I dont expect the system to change much either since we added two guys who are at their best getting to the rim and finishing.  And Nigel and Royce are best around the rim too.

[lawdog77]

There was no system that was going to make our offense good last season.

And we still generated an insane amount of good looks at the rim, so the staff stuck with it.  Again, it worked, the players just couldnt make layups.

I dont expect the system to change much either since we added two guys who are at their best getting to the rim and finishing.  And Nigel and Royce are best around the rim too.

People see what they want to see. I saw way too many forced attempts at the rim when a pull up/floater would have been better I also saw Chase, Ben, and Damarius taking too many 3's.Shooting 29, 26, and 27% from 3 are not "good shots"

[The Sultan]

People see what they want to see. I saw way too many forced attempts at the rim when a pull up/floater would have been better I also saw Chase, Ben, and Damarius taking too many 3's.Shooting 29, 26, and 27% from 3 are not "good shots"

Yes. The best way to fix offenses is to have them take worse shots. Brilliant.

[Billy Hoyle]

It sounds like a conversation with a bunch of people who think they understand analytics, but they really don't understand analytics. It's not simply about shooting a bunch of threes. You even said it yourself...it's about shooting threes, layups and getting to the line. And it certainly isn't "flawed."

The highest scoring team in the league, and the defending champion, OKC Thunder, are pretty average in three point attempts, but they get a ton of points in the paint and get to the line a decent amount.

Here is their shot chart.

This is exactly what Shaka wants. He just doesn't want them jacking up three pointers. He wants them scoring at the rim.

I guess NC State learned that the hard way, amirite?

[lawdog77]

Yes. The best way to fix offenses is to have them take worse shots. Brilliant.

Is it a worse shot? Chase, for example, shot 49% from 2, and 29% from 3. I would argue a 3 is a worse shot for Chase than a 2. He had no business jacking up 4 threes a game. Same with Ben. Ben shot nearly twice as many threes as he did twos, despite shooting 26% from 3, and 66% from 2.

[MU82]

For the season, they calculated the fastbreak scenario where it is passed out for an open three. That play ended up being a net negative. Hopefully Shaka was listening.

Shaka would rather fastbreaks lead to open layups. He doesn't encourage a player who has a layup to kick out for a 3.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Their argument, which I agree with, is you need to cater the offense to the personnel. So by that, the problem was the offense.

So you want the team to take worse shots that they likely won't be better at making?

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Is it a worse shot? Chase, for example, shot 49% from 2, and 29% from 3. I would argue a 3 is a worse shot for Chase than a 2. He had no business jacking up 4 threes a game. Same with Ben. Ben shot nearly twice as many threes as he did twos, despite shooting 26% from 3, and 66% from 2.

Ben and Chase both shot well below their career norms.  Ben drove the ball more but he wasn't suddenly going to morph into a post-up player.  Because Ben shot 66% from 2 doesn't mean he would maintain that percentage with a higher volume of attempts, especially if those attempts were forced.

That's two years in a row where good shooters shot well below what was expected of them from 3.  Kam had a lot more on-ball responsibility and I assume less open catch-and-shoot opportunities.  Not true for Jop, Chase, and Ben - they just didn't make shots.  It's up to the staff to determine if that's randomness or if there was something more to it. 

[MU82]

Ben and Chase both shot well below their career norms.  Ben drove the ball more but he wasn't suddenly going to morph into a post-up player.  Because Ben shot 66% from 2 doesn't mean he would maintain that percentage with a higher volume of attempts, especially if those attempts were forced.

That's two years in a row where good shooters shot well below what was expected of them from 3.  Kam had a lot more on-ball responsibility and I assume less open catch-and-shoot opportunities.  Not true for Jop, Chase, and Ben - they just didn't make shots.  It's up to the staff to determine if that's randomness or if there was something more to it. 

Yup. For all the talk about Gold being a poor shooter, he in fact shot 37% from 3 over his sophomore and junior seasons combined. That's decent to good, especially for a big. That his percentage fell off by 100 basis points was just bizarre. Maybe he felt too much pressure to produce? Who knows? Similar with Ross, who went from .362/.365 to .295. And, as you said, Jop. Weird. If Stevens and James have similar fall-offs next season, it really will be a pattern. Hope not.

[tower912]

Yup. For all the talk about Gold being a poor shooter, he in fact shot 37% from 3 over his sophomore and junior seasons combined. That's decent to good, especially for a big. That his percentage fell off by 100 basis points was just bizarre. Maybe he felt too much pressure to produce? Who knows? Similar with Ross, who went from .362/.365 to .295. And, as you said, Jop. Weird. If Stevens and James have similar fall-offs next season, it really will be a pattern. Hope not.

Or, rib injury and bone spurs in his ankle requiring surgery.

[MU82]

Or, rib injury and bone spurs in his ankle requiring surgery.

Yeah, I get it. But Gold shot meh from 3 right out of the gate last season. Then it only got worse, which certainly might be explained some by the injuries.

[Small Orange Soda]

Yup. For all the talk about Gold being a poor shooter, he in fact shot 37% from 3 over his sophomore and junior seasons combined. That's decent to good, especially for a big. That his percentage fell off by 100 basis points was just bizarre. Maybe he felt too much pressure to produce? Who knows? Similar with Ross, who went from .362/.365 to .295. And, as you said, Jop. Weird. If Stevens and James have similar fall-offs next season, it really will be a pattern. Hope not.

The issue with Gold was that his game was primarily out on the perimeter offensively. They never built the pick and roll to the basket with him, it was pretty much all pick and pop. 37% isn't bad, but it is a problem when that's the only aspect of your game on the offensive end. He never shot well enough to have that be the focus.

[Galway Eagle]

The issue with Gold was that his game was primarily out on the perimeter offensively. They never built the pick and roll to the basket with him, it was pretty much all pick and pop. 37% isn't bad, but it is a problem when that's the only aspect of your game on the offensive end. He never shot well enough to have that be the focus.

While true I feel like more often than not this past year Ben would have his man darting out to the 3pt line meaning he could charge right by him for a dunk/layup but would settle for a 3. Maybe it's injuries maybe it's what was drilled into him by the coaches but I still think if he had a legit killer instinct in him he could've been phenomenal doing that.

[Small Orange Soda]

While true I feel like more often than not this past year Ben would have his man darting out to the 3pt line meaning he could charge right by him for a dunk/layup but would settle for a 3. Maybe it's injuries maybe it's what was drilled into him by the coaches but I still think if he had a legit killer instinct in him he could've been phenomenal doing that.

I agree. He showed flashes, but only flashes.

[muwarrior69]

Was Ben ever the stud of the game?

[SchnitzelBoy]

Ben, like Chase and Sean, was so injury-bitten that he never reached his full potential. Add in that he should have been playing PF. I know his senior season was dreadful on many fronts, but Marquette fans should have at least some appreciation for the Big Kiwi.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Was Ben ever the stud of the game?

According to the MU Scoop Wiki, Gold was SOTG one time his junior year. I'd have to manually search to tell you which game it was for sure, but if I had to guess, it was his 17 point, 6 rebound effort in a home win against Providence (one of two times in his career he was the KenPom MVP).

[muwarrior69]

According to the MU Scoop Wiki, Gold was SOTG one time his junior year. I'd have to manually search to tell you which game it was for sure, but if I had to guess, it was his 17 point, 6 rebound effort in a home win against Providence (one of two times in his career he was the KenPom MVP).

You would think the MODS would have that info at their fingertips. They pick the studs, but thanks! 

[brewcity77]

According to the MU Scoop Wiki, Gold was SOTG one time his junior year. I'd have to manually search to tell you which game it was for sure, but if I had to guess, it was his 17 point, 6 rebound effort in a home win against Providence (one of two times in his career he was the KenPom MVP).

Based on this thread, I'm pretty sure you're correct:

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=66931.0

[MarquetteMike1977]

https://x.com/bigeastvault/status/2054192463217377764?s=46&t=sotL7QsNvvOZPdWl6-_vhA