2026 MLB Thread

[BM1090]

Does the ball just fly there? The dimensions at the park are normal but man it was flying last night.

[BM1090]

Doesn't matter if you can't hit for power, and the Brewers can't.

Ortiz's glove is very good, but his bat is so bad that he can't be in your starting lineup in the Playoffs.

Ceiling is NLCS again.  Then again, so is everyone's in the NL not named the Dodgers.

I'd assume Hamilton gets some playoff starts. Ortiz as a defensive replacement and maybe plays against lefties if they decide not to bring up Pratt. Hamilton is a decent guy to put at 9. Not a great hitter but better than Ortiz, and his speed really puts pressure on teams. Great bunter helps too.

I think the Brewers could steal a 5 game series against LA. Can't see them winning a 7 gamer.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I'd assume Hamilton gets some playoff starts.

BeeJay is going to soil his wiffleball outfit if CH18 gets some starts

[MuggsyB]

After last night's slugfest the Brewers lead the MLB in runs per game. Offense has been cooking since Yeli and Vaughn got healthy. Only injured bat is Lockridge, the backup outfielder who is due back soon.

The Brewers are 4th in runs allowed per game. You are right about the Crew having a lot of pitchers on the IL, they currently have 9:

• Woody and Priester were the #2 and #3 pitchers last season after Peralta. Woody is theoretically back this month but is oft injured and I don't think Priester makes it back this season.
• Zerpa was one of the big offseason acquisitions and he's out for TJ surgery.
• Koenig and Zastryzny were both effective leftys last season who have yet to play. Koenig's on a rehab assignment and I'm not sure Z makes it back this season.
• Hall has been very good out of the pen this season but is now out 4-6 weeks.
• Henderson, Fitzpatrick, and Rodriguez have all ping ponged between Milwaukee and Nashville this season but all have promise, especially Henderson.

If the Dodgers weren't a thing I would say Milwaukee has a shot at the series this season. I think they need to trade for an ace and another bullpen arm to have more than a puncher's chance. Unfortunately, Milwaukee doesn't make trades like that (for good reason). I would really enjoy the LOLz if we traded for Peralta at the deadline and sent back worse than what we sold him for.

It's pretty impressive they have the 2nd best record in MLB. 

[MuggsyB]

Doesn't matter if you can't hit for power, and the Brewers can't.

Ortiz's glove is very good, but his bat is so bad that he can't be in your starting lineup in the Playoffs.

Ceiling is NLCS again.  Then again, so is everyone's in the NL not named the Dodgers.

They didn't hit AT ALL vs the Dodgers last year in the playoffs.  That was the problem.  Maybe this is the year they put it all together? 

[GB Warrior]

They didn't hit AT ALL vs the Dodgers last year in the playoffs.  That was the problem.  Maybe this is the year they put it all together? 

They're going to acquire Skubal and try to win scoring 4 runs in 4 games but giving up none.

[MuggsyB]

They're going to acquire Skubal and try to win scoring 4 runs in 4 games but giving up none.

They could very easily score in heavy numbers come playoff time.  Past failure doesn't necessarily mean anything.  Guys just need to show up and focus.  They also have some excellent young guns coming up from what I've heard.  Add another pitcher and a thunderous bat.  Then things will be alright.

[wadesworld]

They could very easily score in heavy numbers come playoff time.  Past failure doesn't necessarily mean anything.  Guys just need to show up and focus.  They also have some excellent young guns coming up from what I've heard.  Add another pitcher and a thunderous bat.  Then things will be alright.

Pitching and being able to hit home runs is what wins in the Playoffs.  The Brewers are a great regular season offense because they take the extra base when it's there, they grind out at bats, and they put pressure on defenses.  Come playoff time, everyone is grinding out at bats.  They have the pitching to compete at the highest level, but the only time they've had both the offense and the pitching to win a World Series in my lifetime was 2018.  This year isn't any different than last year.  You aren't winning a World Series when you're second from last in the MLB in home runs per game.  Heck, you're not winning a World Series when you're in the bottom half of the MLB in home runs.

[The Sultan]

They could very easily score in heavy numbers come playoff time.  Past failure doesn't necessarily mean anything.  Guys just need to show up and focus.  They also have some excellent young guns coming up from what I've heard.  Add another pitcher and a thunderous bat.  Then things will be alright.

The Brewers are just not willing to pay for past performance. They aren't going to give big $$$ to players who won't live up to that contract on the back end. So they let guys walk. There have been some exceptions to this, like Yelich (and I would suggest his contract has come back to the market), but they have let franchise cornerstones like Adames go, and will do the same when Wild Bill hits free agency.

Furthermore, they are never going to be active at the top levels of free agency. They are either locking young guys up early (Churrio), or looking for value in assets that other teams don't value as highly (Vaughn).

Couple that with a manager who knows how to deal with younger guys, with the club doing a fantastic job with the fan experience and honoring its legends, and it works! They really are a model for how a lower revenue team can succeed in today's MLB. They aren't tanking. They aren't cheapening out and not caring about the product they put on the field.

The downside to all of this is that they pretty much have to have things play out perfectly for them to get to the World Series much less win one. I really hope they can break through though, not only because they are my team, but because this fanbase deserves it. And so does Mark A. for caring a lot about the team and the fans.

[MuggsyB]

From what I saw, the Brewers were a bit unlucky last year.  Other than the game Ohtani went medieval, they were right there even with their odd pitching rotations.  For some reason they couldn't hit at all.  Part of it was the LA pitching, but there were also bad AB's and swings.  So while I get adding more pop and another arm would be helpful, I believe better and timely hitting could get them over the hump. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Pitching and being able to hit home runs is what wins in the Playoffs.  The Brewers are a great regular season offense because they take the extra base when it's there, they grind out at bats, and they put pressure on defenses.  Come playoff time, everyone is grinding out at bats.  They have the pitching to compete at the highest level, but the only time they've had both the offense and the pitching to win a World Series in my lifetime was 2018.  This year isn't any different than last year.  You aren't winning a World Series when you're second from last in the MLB in home runs per game.  Heck, you're not winning a World Series when you're in the bottom half of the MLB in home runs.

Anything can happen in baseball, but it's hard to argue with the data. Brewers are hitting 0.88 home runs a game. Last time a team even made the series with that low of a HR rate was the 2015 Royals (0.86). Most pennant winners hit over 1.24 a game. Only other team in that time span that's even close to 0.88 is the 2023 D-Backs (1.03).

[cheebs09]

Brewers ran into a buzzsaw pitching last year. Couple that with typically manufacturing runs rather than one swing being enough to put a run on the board, and it makes things difficult.

They also couldn't get into LA's bullpen, where their woodpecker type offense helps them in the regular season.

[Jockey]

Anything can happen in baseball, but it's hard to argue with the data. Brewers are hitting 0.88 home runs a game. Last time a team even made the series with that low of a HR rate was the 2015 Royals (0.86). Most pennant winners hit over 1.24 a game. Only other team in that time span that's even close to 0.88 is the 2023 D-Backs (1.03).

The Brewers are 0.88 because of the injuries to Churio, Yeli, and Vaughn.

They certainly wouldn't be one of the top power teams if those guys weren't hurt, but they're not as bad as you guys are making them out to be.

[wadesworld]

The Brewers are 0.88 because of the injuries to Churio, Yeli, and Vaughn.

They certainly wouldn't be one of the top power teams if those guys weren't hurt, but they're not as bad as you guys are making them out to be.

Vaugh has 2 home runs in 96 plate appearances and has a career high of 21 homers.  Chourio has 4 home runs in 141 plate appearances, with a career high of 21 homers.  Yelich has 4 home runs in 153 plate appearances and injuries are just part of what he is at this point in his career.

And if you're going to play that game, you also have to play the game of Jake Bauers has already tied his career high in home runs in just 56 games played.  That pace probably won't continue.

They were 22nd in home runs last year.  That's probably about their ceiling this year.

[The Sultan]

Yeah last year the Brewers hit just over 1.0 HR per game. So sure there is room for improvement this year, but still far from the 1.24 number that TAMU references.

[jficke13]

Does the ball just fly there? The dimensions at the park are normal but man it was flying last night.

Read some stuff by people familiar with how that park plays in the minors and they said it absolutely does to the point that teams re-assess every prospect who plays and pitches there. Apparently the infield is hard/plays crazy fast and the dry air makes balls absolutely scream. They use a humidor for the balls, but I guess it only does so much.

With Gasser/Sproat going for the next two games, there might be more crooked numbers. Maybe worth taking the over*.

*I am historically comically, famously, terrible at sports betting. My friends and I suggested starting a betting service where subscribers get my picks with an instruction to do the opposite because I'm almost always wrong at sports bets. Do with this information what you will.

[GB Warrior]

Read some stuff by people familiar with how that park plays in the minors and they said it absolutely does to the point that teams re-assess every prospect who plays and pitches there. Apparently the infield is hard/plays crazy fast and the dry air makes balls absolutely scream. They use a humidor for the balls, but I guess it only does so much.

With Gasser/Sproat going for the next two games, there might be more crooked numbers. Maybe worth taking the over*.

*I am historically comically, famously, terrible at sports betting. My friends and I suggested starting a betting service where subscribers get my picks with an instruction to do the opposite because I'm almost always wrong at sports bets. Do with this information what you will.

My parlay is counting on the game going off the rails.

[jficke13]

I was entirely unaware of this "Vegas is like Mile High on steroids for fly balls but also has an infield that's barely better than concrete" phenomenon, and now I'm very interested to see how the new A's park is going to play.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The Brewers are 0.88 because of the injuries to Churio, Yeli, and Vaughn.

They certainly wouldn't be one of the top power teams if those guys weren't hurt, but they're not as bad as you guys are making them out to be.

Injuries definitely impacted that number for sure and i think we will be better than what we've been in the power department because of it.

But,  even to get to the 2023 dbacks level (least HRs by a pennant winner since 2015), we would need to hit 112 homers in the remaining 101 games (1.11 per game). Certainly doable but not a guarentee.

To get to that 1.24 number (not a magic number certainly but all but 2 or 3 pennant winners since 2015 were above that) we would need to hit 146 dingers in 101 games (1.45). While not impossible,  it would require us to hit like one of the top 50 HR hitting teams in history to reach it.

Let's just play all if our remaining games in Vegas.

[MurphysTillClose]

Southside. Having fun.

[Shaka Shart]

Southside. Having fun.

Ban dis guy ^^^

[MurphysTillClose]

Ban dis guy ^^^

Southside. Having fun.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

With Gasser/Sproat going for the next two games, there might be more crooked numbers. Maybe worth taking the over*.

*I am historically comically, famously, terrible at sports betting. My friends and I suggested starting a betting service where subscribers get my picks with an instruction to do the opposite because I'm almost always wrong at sports bets. Do with this information what you will.

5 homers already and we're only in the fifth.

[MUBurrow]

With the Lara signing, I'm beginning to think the Brewers front office are saying something about how they anticipate the CBA eventually shaking out. He projects to be a fine player, but on its face, I don't see enough upside to warrant the risk here - unless something changes in the next CBA. 

Lara has a lot of Sal Frelick in him, and based on Sal's WAR to date, Sal would be returning good value on Lara's contract - until you compare that to Sal's actual cost so far.  He will go through arb for the first time in 2027, and has made a total of about $7.5M over his ~3 years of service time before that, which includes a $4M signing bonus.  Lara only got a $1.1M signing bonus, meaning that even if Lara mirrored Sal's service time and was twice as expensive as Sal every year pre-arb, he would only make $8M over that time.  Under the current CBA, I'm having trouble making the math math on a 7 year, $31M minimum guarantee for Lara. Sure, if he's Sal he'll return some surplus value, but enough to warrant the risk of a commitment before he plays an MLB game?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Through 6 innings, the Crew have only allowed 1 runner into scoring position and they stranded that runner. They are still losing 7 to 5 because they've surrendered five home runs.

Gotta get us some of that dry air in AmFam.