2026 MLB Thread

[Uncle Rico]

Satchel Paige made his debut 78 years ago today.  What a terrible moment for sports and America

[MU82]

Satchel Paige made his debut 78 years ago today.  What a terrible moment for sports and America

Not as bad as what happened on April 15, 1947 ... but in the ballpark, so to speak.

[MU82]

Interesting look at Paul Skenes' season in The Athletic's e-newsletter:

On July 27, the Pirates held the final National League wild-card spot. Today, they're 6.5 games back and more or less out of the race. One of the reasons for their collapse is a shocker.

Entering this year, Paul Skenes was as much of an ace as an ace can be. He pitched to ERAs of 1.96 and 1.97 in his first two years, winning Rookie of the Year, the NL Cy Young and back-to-back starting nods in the All-Star Game. This year, Skenes' ERA is 3.88, but that barely explains why his season has been so flummoxing.

Through nine starts, Skenes had a 1.98 ERA. In 16 starts since then, Skenes' ERA is an even 5. Walks and homers are up, and efficiency is down. Skenes is getting through an average of 5 1/3 innings per start. Many of his peripheral stats still look excellent, and both the pitcher and team have espoused a process-trusting approach. "Got to remember what's real," the big man said in June, amid a streak of nine Pirates losses in his starts. His manager, Don Kelly, noted Skenes set the bar "so high" in his first two years.

Something's off, though. It's not just that the Pirates have posted a full 2015 Browns season (a 3-13 record) in Skenes' last 16 starts. That could be noise. But is it?

Skenes' fastball velocity is plummeting to new lows pretty much all the time now, and Kelly just yanked him from a game after 65 pitches. Skenes has indicated that the velocity dip is intentional, part of a self-preservation plan, and that he could access more if he needed it. But his hardest pitches are also slower, suggesting that Skenes does not actually have it when he needs it. Coupled with worse command, he's allowing more base runners and hard-hit balls than ever. The Pirates are concerned enough to be pushing back Skenes' planned start today, to Wednesday. They say it's about recovery and not an injury.

What's happened? A few theories are bouncing around:

++The World Baseball Classic messed with his offseason prep. Skenes was amped up for the WBC, a March event that changed his spring training buildup.

++Something is wrong with his mechanics. Eno Sarris has a deep, deep dive on the current state of Skenes' arsenal.

++Skenes has gained weight. This one comes from longtime Pirates reporter John Perrotto, citing "multiple people" who believe Skenes looks less athletic and that added weight is messing with his delivery.

++He's injured, and the team hasn't realized it. Fans are on edge about the Pirates' medical staff. Prized rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin has had two long-term injury absences this season, each after remaining in the game or lineup immediately after his injury. Starter Mitch Keller was just ruled out for the season after looking like a shell of himself for months. There's a trust gap here, at least.

++Skenes has a cumulative case of "the Pirates." The organization is a bottomless pit of failure under owner Bob Nutting and seventh-year general manager Ben Cherington. That includes team defense. Entering this weekend, fielders behind Skenes had posted a -8 defensive run value, second-worst in the majors. Remember Opening Day?
 
Whatever it is, things aren't fine. I suspect Skenes will fix the problem next year as long as he's healthy, because he's such a great talent and still so early in his career. Whether the Pirates will achieve anything with him is a different question, though. The club will soon have missed the playoffs in each of Skenes' three pre-arbitration seasons. A lockout beckons, and so does Skenes' free agency in 2030.

[MU82]

Tommy John dead at 83.

His left arm has another 10 years in it, though.

[MuggsyB]

The Brewers win 3 of 4 vs the Dodgers.  And are dealing with injuries.  Good to see them punk Skubal. 

[GB Warrior]

Logan Henderson was always untouchable because he's a good starter with 5 years of control. He might be more than that.

[cheebs09]

Logan Henderson was always untouchable because he's a good starter with 5 years of control. He might be more than that.

The biggest thing with him seems to be health.

[MuggsyB]

Logan Henderson was always untouchable because he's a good starter with 5 years of control. He might be more than that.

Do the Brewers have him under contract for a few more years?  Ty. 

[Uncle Rico]

Do the Brewers have him under contract for a few more years?  Ty. 

No

[The Sultan]

Do the Brewers have him under contract for a few more years?  Ty. 

They have him under control the next two years pre-arbitration, then three arbitration years.

[MuggsyB]

My apologies. I misread GB's post. 

[GB Warrior]

Interesting look at Paul Skenes' season in The Athletic's e-newsletter:

On July 27, the Pirates held the final National League wild-card spot. Today, they're 6.5 games back and more or less out of the race. One of the reasons for their collapse is a shocker.

Entering this year, Paul Skenes was as much of an ace as an ace can be. He pitched to ERAs of 1.96 and 1.97 in his first two years, winning Rookie of the Year, the NL Cy Young and back-to-back starting nods in the All-Star Game. This year, Skenes' ERA is 3.88, but that barely explains why his season has been so flummoxing.

Through nine starts, Skenes had a 1.98 ERA. In 16 starts since then, Skenes' ERA is an even 5. Walks and homers are up, and efficiency is down. Skenes is getting through an average of 5 1/3 innings per start. Many of his peripheral stats still look excellent, and both the pitcher and team have espoused a process-trusting approach. "Got to remember what's real," the big man said in June, amid a streak of nine Pirates losses in his starts. His manager, Don Kelly, noted Skenes set the bar "so high" in his first two years.

Something's off, though. It's not just that the Pirates have posted a full 2015 Browns season (a 3-13 record) in Skenes' last 16 starts. That could be noise. But is it?

Skenes' fastball velocity is plummeting to new lows pretty much all the time now, and Kelly just yanked him from a game after 65 pitches. Skenes has indicated that the velocity dip is intentional, part of a self-preservation plan, and that he could access more if he needed it. But his hardest pitches are also slower, suggesting that Skenes does not actually have it when he needs it. Coupled with worse command, he's allowing more base runners and hard-hit balls than ever. The Pirates are concerned enough to be pushing back Skenes' planned start today, to Wednesday. They say it's about recovery and not an injury.

What's happened? A few theories are bouncing around:

++The World Baseball Classic messed with his offseason prep. Skenes was amped up for the WBC, a March event that changed his spring training buildup.

++Something is wrong with his mechanics. Eno Sarris has a deep, deep dive on the current state of Skenes' arsenal.

++Skenes has gained weight. This one comes from longtime Pirates reporter John Perrotto, citing "multiple people" who believe Skenes looks less athletic and that added weight is messing with his delivery.

++He's injured, and the team hasn't realized it. Fans are on edge about the Pirates' medical staff. Prized rookie shortstop Konnor Griffin has had two long-term injury absences this season, each after remaining in the game or lineup immediately after his injury. Starter Mitch Keller was just ruled out for the season after looking like a shell of himself for months. There's a trust gap here, at least.

++Skenes has a cumulative case of "the Pirates." The organization is a bottomless pit of failure under owner Bob Nutting and seventh-year general manager Ben Cherington. That includes team defense. Entering this weekend, fielders behind Skenes had posted a -8 defensive run value, second-worst in the majors. Remember Opening Day?
 
Whatever it is, things aren't fine. I suspect Skenes will fix the problem next year as long as he's healthy, because he's such a great talent and still so early in his career. Whether the Pirates will achieve anything with him is a different question, though. The club will soon have missed the playoffs in each of Skenes' three pre-arbitration seasons. A lockout beckons, and so does Skenes' free agency in 2030.

TLDR

I think it's because he's settling down and got fat. Many such cases.

[GB Warrior]

No

[Shaka Shart]

My apologies. I misread GB's post. 

Not accepted. Be more careful next time

[CreightonWarrior]

I'll happily go 3-4 in San Diego and LA any day.

[SoCalEagle]

The Brewers win 3 of 4 vs the Dodgers.  And are dealing with injuries.  Good to see them punk Skubal. 

Brewers had a good series.  Would enjoy a rematch in October.  If the Dodgers don't win their third WS in a row, I would love to see the Brew Crew win it all.

Skubal got punked?  My sources (i.e. my iPhone) says he gave up one earned run in 6 innings of work.  If that's being punked, more please. 

[MuggsyB]

Brewers had a good series.  Would enjoy a rematch in October.  If the Dodgers don't win their third WS in a row, I would love to see the Brew Crew win it all.

Skubal got punked?  My sources (i.e. my iPhone) says he gave up one earned run in 6 innings of work.  If that's being punked, more please. 

I watched the inning where he threw like 50 pitches.  The Brewers had really solid at bats and he did not look particularly good. 

[TallTitan34]

The Brewers win 3 of 4 vs the Dodgers.  And are dealing with injuries.  Good to see them punk Skubal. 

Dodgers must not have been trying. I've been told the Brewers (and every other team) can't compete with the Dodgers.

[MuggsyB]

I've been bandwagoning a bit with the Brewers.  Who would you lead off come playoffs time?  I know they have a few guys out.  Ty.

[Uncle Rico]

I've been bandwagoning a bit with the Brewers.  Who would you lead off comme playoffs time?  I know they have a few guys out.  Ty.

Gary Sanchez

[MuggsyB]

Gary Sanchez

The big guy?  He can't run. 

[The Sultan]

The big guy?  He can't run. 

Which is good cause he can't hit either.

[CreightonWarrior]

The big guy?  He can't run. 

that is incredibly discriminatory towards people of size. absolutely disgusting

[MuggsyB]

that is incredibly discriminatory towards people of size. absolutely disgusting

I think you're grasping at straws.  Some big guys can run, but he's not one of them. 

[Uncle Rico]

that is incredibly discriminatory towards people of size. absolutely disgusting

Fat shaming. SMDH.  Blocked and reported.