War with Iran

[Uncle Rico]

I don't see how anyone can read the outcomes from the China meetings and not come to the conclusion that we have capitulated our power to the Chinese.

I'd put a Chinese blockade of Taiwan as very likely if we go through with arms sales to Taiwan. They might hold off on it, but the odds of a Chinese/Taiwan conflict have definitely risen.

Doesn't take much to outwit the vainglorious

[Hards Alumni]

I don't see how anyone can read the outcomes from the China meetings and not come to the conclusion that we have capitulated our power to the Chinese.

I'd put a Chinese blockade of Taiwan as very likely if we go through with arms sales to Taiwan. They might hold off on it, but the odds of a Chinese/Taiwan conflict have definitely risen.

I thought that was fairly obvious years ago.  China has been ascending for decades.  It has its own set of problems, but they pale in comparison to the United States.

IMO, Taiwan sees the writing on the wall in the near future and will work out a deal with the CCP to transition to reunification with the mainland.

[Jockey]

I thought that was fairly obvious years ago.  China has been ascending for decades.  It has its own set of problems, but they pale in comparison to the United States.

IMO, Taiwan sees the writing on the wall in the near future and will work out a deal with the CCP to transition to reunification with the mainland.

First paragraph is absolutely true.

Second paragraph couldn't be more wrong.

[Hards Alumni]

First paragraph is absolutely true.

Second paragraph couldn't be more wrong.

Sounds like you're using outdated information.

[MU82]

Even the blockade of the blockade was a failure ...

Iran said it had allowed some Chinese ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz at Beijing's request.

And a New York Times analysis showed that some ships carrying Iranian oil to Asia sailed through the strait last month despite the U.S. blockade.

[JWags85]

Sounds like you're using outdated information.

I can't speak to the current government/ruling party mentality on it, but such a decision would be WILDLY and overwhelming unpopular.  Last time I saw in Asian press, back in March when I was in HK, it was something like 72% of Taiwanese would flat out oppose reunification in the "1 country, 2 systems model" and actual support for it was like 10-12%. Speaking to older Taiwanese people (60-70 years old) and they will say their parents generation were the last to hold any sort of feeling of being Chinese, as opposed to fully feeling Taiwanese as a separation.

I wouldn't be surprised if seeing the last 10 years of development in HK exacerbated it as the idea of HK being separate from China, with its own rules and regulations, gets chipped away at year by year.

That's not to say it won't happen, but that would solely be a governmental action due to extreme pressure (whether militarily or economically) in the face of profound opposing public sentiment and not a decision reflecting a change in a prevailing national or cultural shift in mindset or perspective.

[Hards Alumni]

I can't speak to the current government/ruling party mentality on it, but such a decision would be WILDLY and overwhelming unpopular.  Last time I saw in Asian press, back in March when I was in HK, it was something like 72% of Taiwanese would flat out oppose reunification in the "1 country, 2 systems model" and actual support for it was like 10-12%. Speaking to older Taiwanese people (60-70 years old) and they will say their parents generation were the last to hold any sort of feeling of being Chinese, as opposed to fully feeling Taiwanese as a separation.

I wouldn't be surprised if seeing the last 10 years of development in HK exacerbated it as the idea of HK being separate from China, with its own rules and regulations, gets chipped away at year by year.

That's not to say it won't happen, but that would solely be a governmental action due to extreme pressure (whether militarily or economically) in the face of profound opposing public sentiment and not a decision reflecting a change in a prevailing national or cultural shift in mindset or perspective.

It doesn't matter how popular the idea is among the people, the only thing that matters is the leadership.  Additionally, I think they see what has happened with Iran, and the US being woefully unprepared to deal with a non-peer opponent.  What hope does Taiwan have with the US as its primary backer?  Sure, Taiwan could hold out for a while if the Chinese attempt an invasion, but they will eventually overwhelm and defeat the Taiwanese government.  And China doesn't care if it has to start over on the island, retaking it is a matter of pride.

Also, I just don't see Taiwan looking at the situation and saying, "Yes, we will fight even if it costs us everything".  Yes, the US and the national government has radicalized the populace, but when push comes to shove, I think an agreement happens... and yes, it will be similar to HK, and the transition will be similar.

[Jockey]

Sounds like you're using outdated information.

No.

[Hards Alumni]

No.

Thanks for elaborating.  Nothing that has happened in the last 6 months has changed anything.

Great analysis.

[Jockey]

Thanks for elaborating.  Nothing that has happened in the last 6 months has changed anything.

Great analysis.

You were wrong. Wags covered it well. Reunification means getting swallowed up by the dictatorial communist regime. It will not happen without war (which, sadly becomes more likely with the pedo—in-chief).

As a matter of fact, I have a $50 bet that the pedo will either cut troops in the far east OR cut weapons sales to Taiwan in the next 60 days after getting stomped on by Xi.

[Hards Alumni]

You were wrong. Wags covered it well. Reunification means getting swallowed up by the dictatorial communist regime. It will not happen without war (which, sadly becomes more likely with the pedo—in-chief).

As a matter of fact, I have a $50 bet that the pedo will either cut troops in the far east OR cut weapons sales to Taiwan in the next 60 days after getting stomped on by Xi.

I'm not sure how anyone can be 'wrong' about something that hasn't happened yet.  Wags generally agrees with my stance.  War is certainly possible, but Taiwan is recalculating its chances of actually repelling China, and as I mentioned, those chances are getting smaller each day.  Without the help of the US they're doomed, their population and economy is doomed.  Almost no one in the world recognizes them as a country, and if the US isn't defending them, no one will be.  They can be annoying for a while, but China has over 2 million in its army, and Taiwan has 1/10 of that.  Taiwan can be blockaded and bombed and missle striked into submission.  Only with the direct assistance of the US does Taiwan have a sliver of a chance of surviving.

You're living in the past.  As usual.

[MUBurrow]

You were wrong. Wags covered it well. Reunification means getting swallowed up by the dictatorial communist regime. It will not happen without war (which, sadly becomes more likely with the pedo—in-chief).

As a matter of fact, I have a $50 bet that the pedo will either cut troops in the far east OR cut weapons sales to Taiwan in the next 60 days after getting stomped on by Xi.

Your focus on Trump is preventing you from being realistic on this.  If you're right about the second paragraph, it makes reunification without war much more likely.

[Uncle Rico]

Your focus on Trump is preventing you from being realistic on this.  If you're right about the second paragraph, it makes reunification without war much more likely.

China's getting Taiwan.  Just a matter of when.  Xi schlonged Trump this week, this year, this term.  Just a masterclass in dealing with narcissists.

[Jockey]

Your focus on Trump is preventing you from being realistic on this.  If you're right about the second paragraph, it makes reunification without war much more likely.

The leaders and the populace are adamantly against reunification. If you and Hards think that makes it more likely, so be it.

[Hards Alumni]

The leaders and the populace are adamantly against reunification. If you and Hards think that makes it more likely, so be it.

Hong Kong is on line 1 for you

[Jockey]

Hong Kong is on line 1 for you

What does HK have to do with Taiwan. Completely different circumstances.

[Hards Alumni]

What does HK have to do with Taiwan. Completely different circumstances.

Yes, the circumstances are different, but the outcome will be the same.  The people in HK protested back in 2019, for all the good it did.

[The Sultan]

But the people of HK had no say in the matter. HK was leased by the UK for 99 years and the least ran out and China said they weren't going to extend it. Even if the UK wanted to, they weren't going to be able to prevent the UK from taking over

Taiwan is a defacto sovereign territory. They aren't going to willingly give up that sovereignty. Taking over Taiwan would be through the result of a military invasion - and one that may not go their way.

[Hards Alumni]

But the people of HK had no say in the matter. HK was leased by the UK for 99 years and the least ran out and China said they weren't going to extend it. Even if the UK wanted to, they weren't going to be able to prevent the UK from taking over

Taiwan is a defacto sovereign territory. They aren't going to willingly give up that sovereignty. Taking over Taiwan would be through the result of a military invasion - and one that may not go their way.

The people of Taiwan have a say because they have a military.  Again, its 1/10th of what China can field currently.  Without the US they'll lose.  They know this.  They're on a rock that imports everything including 70% of their food, and basically all of its oil (150 day supply on hand).  China can lob missles and blockade the island and simply wait it out.  This is my entire point.  Without US intervention they'd have to submit in less than six months.

[Jockey]

Yes, the circumstances are different, but the outcome will be the same.  The people in HK protested back in 2019, for all the good it did.

Umm, Hong Kong was ALREADY under Chinese control in 2019 when they protested. They came under Chinese control through a negotiated settlement with the British.

There is NO similarity to the situation in Taiwan.

[Jockey]

The people of Taiwan have a say because they have a military.  Again, its 1/10th of what China can field currently.  Without the US they'll lose.  They know this.  They're on a rock that imports everything including 70% of their food, and basically all of its oil (150 day supply on hand).  China can lob missles and blockade the island and simply wait it out.  This is my entire point.  Without US intervention they'd have to submit in less than six months.

It's your point now that you realize you were wrong. You earlier compared the situation to HK when there is no similarity.

[Hards Alumni]

It's your point now that you realize you were wrong. You earlier compared the situation to HK when there is no similarity.

Time for bed, grandpa.

[Jockey]

Time for bed, grandpa.

Yup. I figured you ran out of bogus arguments.

And since you always need the last word, have at it.

[Jay Bee]

Hards vs. Jokey part ??

What a glorious Friday night!!

[jesmu84]

Trump warns Taiwan against declaring independence

I think that's a pretty clear sign where this admin stands on China-Taiwan dynamic