[Cracked Sidewalks] 1 in 14,000,605

[brewcity77]

While I'm sure all of you listened to the latest Scrambled Eggs episode presented by Cracked Sidewalks, there may be some who did not understand Joe McCann's reference to Dr. Strange. Today, along with a clip from the movie Infinity War, I answer the question of What If...Dr. Strange's 14,000,605 scenarios ended with one that would result in a Marquette Big East Tournament Championship and NCAA Tournament bid.

1 in 14,000,605

[muwarrior69]

While I'm sure all of you listened to the latest Scrambled Eggs episode presented by Cracked Sidewalks, there may be some who did not understand Joe McCann's reference to Dr. Strange. Today, along with a clip from the movie Infinity War, we look at the one future in 14,000,605 that would result in a Marquette Big East Tournament Championship and NCAA Tournament bid.

1 in 14,000,605

Well, it is not zero. So there is that.

[GoldenWarrior11]

"You break the rules and become a hero. I do it and I become the enemy. That doesn't seem fair." - Scarlet Witch (to Dr. Strange).

[Daniel]

So, you say there's a chance! 

[1SE]

Ah, so that's why Shaka is a top 0.00001% coach!

[PointWarrior]

Odds should be in our favor as a "top 45ish" team

[1SE]

Torvik has Marquette with a 15% @UCONN. Can someone open a Polymarket on that - we could turn $1 million of NIL into $1.15 pretty quickly.

[brewcity77]

Odds should be in our favor as a "top 45ish" team

This is in jest, but if we play like we did the last couple weeks it's on point. Xavier's hot first half sunk us, but in general we're playing better than anyone other than UConn and St John's the past couple weeks.

[rocky_warrior]

This is in jest, but if we play like we did the last couple weeks it's on point. Xavier's hot first half sunk us, but in general we're playing better than anyone other than UConn and St John's the past couple weeks.

I've mentioned this before, what happens if you remove the crazy hot Creighton win from that calculation?  I think we all know that was a bit of an aberration.   Or even just remove the blowout of Butler who was missing starters?

Those two games likely skew our recent play more than they should.

[brewcity77]

Losing by 3 at Nova when we were double digit underdogs skews it just as much. It's okay to acknowledge we're playing better. Still not the level we've come to expect, but much better than November-January (at least early January).

[rocky_warrior]

Losing by 3 at Nova when we were double digit underdogs skews it just as much. It's okay to acknowledge we're playing better. Still not the level we've come to expect, but much better than November-January (at least early January).

I'm not saying we're not playing better, I just suspect it's not top 3 in the big east good, and curious about where the reasonable numbers land.  Including the "good" game @ Nova is reasonable.  Admitting Creighton and Butler were outliers doesn't seem like a big leap either.

Hell, I'd even throw out the latest X game since they were unconscious from 3 in the first half (though we also defended poorly).

[muwarrior69]

This is in jest, but if we play like we did the last couple weeks it's on point. Xavier's hot first half sunk us, but in general we're playing better than anyone other than UConn and St John's the past couple weeks.

I think Nova would take exception to that comment.

[UWW2MU]

I'm not saying we're not playing better, I just suspect it's not top 3 in the big east good, and curious about where the reasonable numbers land.  Including the "good" game @ Nova is reasonable.  Admitting Creighton and Butler were outliers doesn't seem like a big leap either.

Hell, I'd even throw out the latest X game since they were unconscious from 3 in the first half (though we also defended poorly).

We can be both, admit we are playing at a top 3 level lately while also recognize that some games lately are outliers compared to the rest of the season previous. 

Then again, maybe the remaining games follow the same path and change those from outliers to the new norm!  Crossing my fingers on that part.

[brewcity77]

At some point, every game becomes an outlier and Doug Gottlieb is finally justified.

I think it's safe to say we're playing like a top-half team right now and are in a better place than most of us expected a month ago. Who knows where it goes from there or if there's any real long term value to that improvement.

[rocky_warrior]

Well, I agree MU is playing better, I disagree with "top half", but so be it.

I tried to run my simulation with Torvik's teamcast cast, dropping every game before 1/7, all future games, and vs CU, But and @ X.  He then put us as 65th team out of the tournament instead of 108th.  Yay!

[wadesworld]

Well, I agree MU is playing better, I disagree with "top half", but so be it.

I tried to run my simulation with Torvik's teamcast cast, dropping every game before 1/7, all future games, and vs CU, But and @ X.  He then put us as 65th team out of the tournament instead of 108th.  Yay!

I guess what's an "outlier?"  You're taking 30% of the sample size away and writing them up as "outliers," while leaving in the largest margin (at SJU).  Sure SJU would be expected to win comfortably, but by 24?  Guessing the spread was half that at most.

[rocky_warrior]

I guess what's an "outlier?"  You're taking 30% of the sample size away and writing them up as "outliers," while leaving in the largest margin (at SJU).  Sure SJU would be expected to win comfortably, but by 24?  Guessing the spread was half that at most.

I agree!  I just think taking the last month, or 10, or whatever outliers and concluding the MU is currently 3rd in the BE is equally flawed!

[wadesworld]

I agree!  I just think taking the last month, or 10, or whatever outliers and concluding the MU is currently 3rd in the BE is equally flawed!

Yeah I'd probably say Nova at 3rd, but then at 4 there's just not a lot of quality there.