The Next 4, time to look forward

[DoctorV]

We've already discussed ad nauseam how it's not all seashells and balloons, and we understand that this years team has flaws...

However,
1- the season is not over and there is a massive 4 game stretch that looms
H Dayton (74)
H Central Michigan (274)
N Oklahoma, in Chicago at UIC (66)
H Valparaiso (258)

Why is this stretch massive?
Well Marquette is currently at 60 in KenPom, 62O and 62D efficiency.
Opponents KenPom listed above.

So, at a time MU desperately needs to figure out a way to get right, it gets 4 consecutive games that it will be favored in, 3 at home and one that should be a home environment.

2- I'm a very look forward type of guy, and I see a major opportunity here. Sure, Shaka has to turn things around quickly, and a loss versus Dayton on Wednesday could be doomsday, but in a season like this sometimes all you need is a nice 4 game stretch to get you off the schneid and back to winning ways.
IMO the schedule sets up nicely for that.

3- For all the well documented negatives, which I'm not going to refute until I see a reason to, there are actually some positives

A) Chase seems ready to star in his role. I'm sure the alpha will have some down games, but I think we can be confident we have an alpha. That alone will win some close games.

B) Rebounding is improved. Don't think I've seen a 15-0 offensive rebounding advantage on a Marquette team in many years.

C) We have a very talented freshman PG.

D) The team did show some fight coming back from a big deficit and being in a position to win versus Maryland before the wheels fell off.

I won't go backwards, and I have a lot of thoughts as to why the wheels fell off, but the simplest and easiest way to explain it is that the team can't shoot for crap.
Last year we were confident it would improve, but it didn't the way we hoped/thought it would. This year I don't think we are as confident.
This is the major problem amongst a plethora of developmental/talent/confidence issues of key players on the team.

4- My take:
If Marquette loses to Dayton at home the season might be toast. Maybe it's pure faith but I don't think that will happen.
I fall back on that Oklahoma game being one of the biggest of the season, assuming Marquette can get in the conversation.
I didn't have a great feeling about Maryland because of the Buzz motivation factor and how Buzz seems to find a way, and before the season started I had a bad feeling about that game v Oklahoma, so my instinct says 3-1...

That said, I think 4-0 with some nice margins of victory might be really necessary here to even think about the importance of the BE conference season and dancing.
That would put Marquette back in the 40s in KenPom with some confidence and everything to play for going into the Kohl hole

A team on a 4 game win streak with nothing to lose at that point going against their in state rival can be a dangerous thing.

Let get em Shaka and Co!

[BM1090]

4-0, but neither back on track or season over.

[1SE]

These 4 are must win - but then we also need one of PU/UW

[Jay Bee]

That would put Marquette back in the 40s

Not necessarily

[WarriorFan]

I just watched the buzz game replay and even though it's a tough loss, there is still hope:
Chase and Ben need to play that well every game - and they can.
Zaide is a nice 3rd option.
James jr is good enough as a freshman PG and needs to continue to be aggressive.
Those are the "go to" guys for the season.  Unfortunately we need to play with 5, so the next position is important. 
Caedin boxes out very well.  If he can play 18-20 minutes and have zero turnovers, 2 points and 8 boards that's good enough.

Parham is useless.  Bricks for hands.  He had about 10 passes/rebounds just bounce off his hands.  Also, not much defense there.  Looks good on paper but not good enough.

Norman looks scared.
Owens looks lost.

Stevens seems like the next best option.  D is improving and doesn't make too many mistakes. 
Phillips needs more minutes.  Needs to come in before the 16 media time out and get a 3.  If it goes in, he stays.  If it misses, he gets another minute in the 2nd half.  As long as he's taking and making good shots, he plays. 

That's a 7 man rotation with spot minutes from Norman, Owens and Clark, and Jones getting PG minutes when he returns from Injury.  Get them settled in this rotation and rely on the 4 "responsible" ones. Make sure the 5th guy on the court is not screwing it up for the 4 who can be trusted.

[Scoop Snoop]

Chase and Ben need to play that well every game - and they can.

 Unfortunately we need to play with 5.
 
 Get them settled in this rotation and rely on the 4 "responsible" ones. Make sure the 5th guy on the court is not screwing it up for the 4 who can be trusted.

I love your optimism. but if we have only 4 "who can be trusted" and with a fifth wheel whose duty is to not screw it up ("because need to play with 5", )I think this is simply unrealistic. No solid bench players to relieve the 4 guys and opponents zeroing in on the fifth wheel? Add in Chase and Ben playing well every game and what could possibly go wrong?



 

[tower912]

I hope Sean heals quickly.

[Viper]

I'm waiting out a long flight delay in Ft Myers last night. I'm sure I was mumbling to myself (not uncommon)as occasionally the lady in the Michigan sweatshirt a few seats away at the gate would give me an odd look, but yeah, I was thinking about the balance of the non-conf. schedule. I think MU goes 4-0 in the upcoming stretch (Oklahoma would be a really nice W), but bigger picture on the season is toast if Owens and Parham aren't better. Owens flat out puzzles me. Awesome athlete, but maybe he's a guy that freaks out under the lights? Lock down on D with slashing and cutting for some easy crams would seem, well, easy for him. Shaka should run some sets for him rolling off screens. Otherwise, maybe it's about mental fortitude. Stop thinking and just play! Get tough! Dominate!  Parham isn't the athlete Owens is, but he's got some game. We've seen it! Get these two guys right, and if Hamilton can offer even 4 & 6, while Ross, Zaide, Gold, James keep on keepin' on, the season can still be respectable. Flip side, Owens and Parham are as is, Hamilton not attempting shots, a depressing 14 wins might be it.

[Jay Bee]

Caedin boxes out very well.  If he can play 18-20 minutes and have zero turnovers, 2 points and 8 boards that's good enough.

I don't mean this in the wrong way, but WAT.

18-20 mins and 8 boards? Lol what planet iz u on??

Caedin last year had a DR% of 11.0%. This year it's fricken 10.5%.

[brewcity77]

Need to go 4-0 to keep NCAA hopes alive, and to seriously be in the conversation probably 10+ point average wins over Dayton & Oklahoma and 25+ point average wins over CMU & Valpo.

We need to see the defense be a bedrock. Need to prove we can actually turn teams over. The only one of the defensive four factors that we're top-100 in is turnovers, and barely (#88). That's putrid, and worse any positives are from running up numbers on cupcakes.

Offensively, we need to learn how to beat a zone. We have struggled every time we've seen zone. Maryland broke one out successfully. Either need to make threes or find the soft spots inside and make shots from there. We're going to keep seeing it until we show we can beat it.

Perhaps most important, we need to see a settled rotation and the staff figuring out who their best 7-8 players are. No more first half minutes in meaningful games from guys 9-11 on the depth chart. Games in November and December mean just as much as the games in February and March, and mean even more if you lose so much that late season conference games won't matter. This isn't the time for experimentation.

[tower912]

Until Sean returns, 8 man rotation.  Clark and Phillips are odd men out.  As infuriating as DO is, he is more likely to figure it out this season than MP.  And, if Clark is odd man out up front and MP is odd man out at wing, the rest of the rotation  falls into place, at least until Sean returns.
 Then, simply due to size and the inability to play them together, Sean and NJ alternate at the point.  I don't care who starts.  Play better, get more minutes.   
  Chase, Zaide, and Ben clearly co tinue to start.   Hamilton vs Parham for the last position with the other being first big off the bench.

DO is the wild card and linchpin.   If he figures it out and becomes who he was expected to be, so many other pieces fall into place.   If he doesn't, it will continue to be a slog.

[Badgerhater]

I love your optimism. but if we have only 4 "who can be trusted" and with a fifth wheel whose duty is to not screw it up ("because need to play with 5", )I think this is simply unrealistic. No solid bench players to relieve the 4 guys and opponents zeroing in on the fifth wheel? Add in Chase and Ben playing well every game and what could possibly go wrong?


It's called the Dwight Burke/Chris Otule strategy.


 

[The Sultan]

Until Sean returns, 8 man rotation.  Clark and Phillips are odd men out.  As infuriating as DO is, he is more likely to figure it out this season than MP.  And, if Clark is odd man out up front and MP is odd man out at wing, the rest of the rotation  falls into place, at least until Sean returns.
 Then, simply due to size and the inability to play them together, Sean and NJ alternate at the point.  I don't care who starts.  Play better, get more minutes.   
  Chase, Zaide, and Ben clearly co tinue to start.   Hamilton vs Parham for the last position with the other being first big off the bench.

DO is the wild card and linchpin.   If he figures it out and becomes who he was expected to be, so many other pieces fall into place.   If he doesn't, it will continue to be a slog.

I don't know if I agree with the bolded.

[willie warrior]

I just watched the buzz game replay and even though it's a tough loss, there is still hope:
Chase and Ben need to play that well every game - and they can.
Zaide is a nice 3rd option.
James jr is good enough as a freshman PG and needs to continue to be aggressive.
Those are the "go to" guys for the season.  Unfortunately we need to play with 5, so the next position is important. 
Caedin boxes out very well.  If he can play 18-20 minutes and have zero turnovers, 2 points and 8 boards that's good enough.

Parham is useless.  Bricks for hands.  He had about 10 passes/rebounds just bounce off his hands.  Also, not much defense there.  Looks good on paper but not good enough.

Norman looks scared.
Owens looks lost.

Stevens seems like the next best option.  D is improving and doesn't make too many mistakes. 
Phillips needs more minutes.  Needs to come in before the 16 media time out and get a 3.  If it goes in, he stays.  If it misses, he gets another minute in the 2nd half.  As long as he's taking and making good shots, he plays. 

That's a 7 man rotation with spot minutes from Norman, Owens and Clark, and Jones getting PG minutes when he returns from Injury.  Get them settled in this rotation and rely on the 4 "responsible" ones. Make sure the 5th guy on the court is not screwing it up for the 4 who can be trusted.

Did Ben play well? I sawairballs ans 3 missed bunnies

[Uncle Rico]

Did Ben play well? I sawairballs ans 3 missed bunnies

Did you have a stroke?  If so, can I have your Warriors pennant that's hiding in your basement?

[mu_hilltopper]

2-2.  Win the cupcakes, lose the legit games.   

[Markusquette]

I'm waiting out a long flight delay in Ft Myers last night. I'm sure I was mumbling to myself (not uncommon)as occasionally the lady in the Michigan sweatshirt a few seats away at the gate would give me an odd look, but yeah, I was thinking about the balance of the non-conf. schedule. I think MU goes 4-0 in the upcoming stretch (Oklahoma would be a really nice W), but bigger picture on the season is toast if Owens and Parham aren't better. Owens flat out puzzles me. Awesome athlete, but maybe he's a guy that freaks out under the lights? Lock down on D with slashing and cutting for some easy crams would seem, well, easy for him. Shaka should run some sets for him rolling off screens. Otherwise, maybe it's about mental fortitude. Stop thinking and just play! Get tough! Dominate!  Parham isn't the athlete Owens is, but he's got some game. We've seen it! Get these two guys right, and if Hamilton can offer even 4 & 6, while Ross, Zaide, Gold, James keep on keepin' on, the season can still be respectable. Flip side, Owens and Parham are as is, Hamilton not attempting shots, a depressing 14 wins might be it.

As I noted in another thread, guys like Royce and Damarius benefitted playing with Marquette's senior leaders last year. Kam was a college superstar and Stevie and Jop were both very, very good players.

All of a sudden that leadership is gone and replaced by a couple of guys at least several notches below. Very little experience at PG also makes a big impact.

Perplexed with how poorly both of those two are playing in particular, and while there's still plenty of time to make up for the rough start, most of us expected a lot better. Although aside from a breakout game in Iowa St., I don't think Owens really impressed much last year. Parham on the other hand appeared he could be as high as a #2 or 3 option on the team this year.