[Paint Touches] Marquette Minutes Projections for 2026

[PaintTouches]

I find this to be a quite useful exercise leading up to every year, and a great barometer after the season ends. Full thoughts (and last year's results) at the link.

https://painttouches.com/2025/10/31/marquette-basketball-minutes-projections-for-2026-chase-ross/?utm_source=MUScoop&utm_medium=Forum



And this year, I also enlisted some thoughts from a few others.

[DoctorV]

I've been on record, and I'll double down, that Chase Ross will play 34/35mpg given health.

His versatility allows him to play at the 1-4 spots. We have 2 capable PGs, and I doubt we go small enough often enough to get him heavy minutes at the 4, but the SJ22 and NJ combo could put him at the 4 and he's handled the ball enough to play the 1 in an emergency.

He's out stud, a super versatile stud that absolutely brings it on the defensive end, and is a Sr in a year with a bunch of unknowns. If several additional studs don't develop fast he will play all the minutes.
34/35 on avg imo.

My guess for the others
-Benny 20, Caedin 12, Clark 4 and Parham 4 mpg there in a "small" lineup at the 5

-SJ22/Nigel I agree with the allocation at the 1

- I think Benny at the 4 is a pipe dream, most of his mins come at the 5, but I'll give him 2 mins at the 4 (22 total). At the 4, Parham gets the lions share with 22ish mpg (26 total). Damarius with 13, Caedin 3 (15 total).

- At the 3 I'll say Zaide with 22 minutes (22 total). Damarius with the 7 (20 total). Chase with 9, Phillips 2

- At the 2 Chase with 25mpg (34 total) Tre with 6, Stevens with 6, Phillips 1, SJ22 with 2 (26 total for him).
Of course Chase and Zaide at the 2/3 are pretty interchangeable.

I think Nigel will be very good, but could see Adrien dipping into his minutes. In that case SJ2 would play more at the 1, Adrien would get more at the 2 and it would trickle down.
Also, if Zaide or Damarius enter stud realm they will obviously get more minutes and would be less for the others, would be a good problem to have

 

[Jay Bee]

I'm not convinced that Tre is a total and complete after thought. Rough start, but is there a world in which he plays great defense, distributes well, doesn't turn it over much, plays a little bully ball to get to the line... ORtg jumps to 104-108 on 16-18% usage.. and he's seeing more than the zero to six in the above projections?... say 11-12? I say yes, there is a world. Will we see it.. dunno, but I'm not writing him off yet. #pray

[wadesworld]

I've been on record, and I'll double down, that Chase Ross will play 34/35mpg given health.

His versatility allows him to play at the 1-4 spots. We have 2 capable PGs, and I doubt we go small enough often enough to get him heavy minutes at the 4, but the SJ22 and NJ combo could put him at the 4 and he's handled the ball enough to play the 1 in an emergency.

He's out stud, a super versatile stud that absolutely brings it on the defensive end, and is a Sr in a year with a bunch of unknowns. If several additional studs don't develop fast he will play all the minutes.
34/35 on avg imo.

My guess for the others
-Benny 20, Caedin 12, Clark 4 and Parham 4 mpg there in a "small" lineup at the 5

-SJ22/Nigel I agree with the allocation at the 1

- I think Benny at the 4 is a pipe dream, most of his mins come at the 5, but I'll give him 2 mins at the 4 (22 total). At the 4, Parham gets the lions share with 22ish mpg (26 total). Damarius with 13, Caedin 3 (15 total).

- At the 3 I'll say Zaide with 22 minutes (22 total). Damarius with the 7 (20 total). Chase with 9, Phillips 2

- At the 2 Chase with 25mpg (34 total) Tre with 6, Stevens with 6, Phillips 1, SJ22 with 2 (26 total for him).
Of course Chase and Zaide at the 2/3 are pretty interchangeable.

I think Nigel will be very good, but could see Adrien dipping into his minutes. In that case SJ2 would play more at the 1, Adrien would get more at the 2 and it would trickle down.
Also, if Zaide or Damarius enter stud realm they will obviously get more minutes and would be less for the others, would be a good problem to have

 

There's no way that Ben's minutes go from 8 to 16 to 25, and then drop to 22 as a senior.

There's also almost no way that anybody is playing 36 minutes per game if we are going to play as fast as the coaching staff says we are.

[Uncle Rico]

There's no way that Ben's minutes go from 8 to 16 to 25, and then drop to 22 as a senior.

There's also almost no way that anybody is playing 36 minutes per game if we are going to play as fast as the coaching staff says we are.

Goldddddddbriiiiccccck playing more than 20 minutes = trouble

[dgies9156]

Ben Gold's minutes will depend on the development of the folks behind him.

He will start all season -- if Coach Smart has taught us anything it' that barring injury, he doesn't change his starting line-up.

That said, if Parham, Owens, Hamilton and maybe Nigel James develop as fast as Coach Smart thinks they will, then making Ben Gold this year's version of Bill Neary or some type of Super Sixth Man may well happen. If each of the aforementioned folks develop quickly, we're going to have a really good team!

I'd probably be looking at Ben in the 18 minute to 22 minute range, assuming optimistic development. Wades, if the team is more talented, then, definitely, this will happen.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Under Shaka, the Marquette minutes leader has averaged between 32.2 and 33.8 mpg.  Expect Chase to be in that range.

Don't expect Ben's minutes to go down. He's a proven starter. I would imagine a slight increase to 28-30 mpg. (The Ben haters suffer from backup QB syndrome.)

Other than it, playing time is really wide open.  I think a lot of players (about 7) end up in the 12-26 range.  I'll lean towards the more experienced players unless/until the younger players prove it in games

[wadesworld]

Ben Gold's minutes will depend on the development of the folks behind him.

He will start all season -- if Coach Smart has taught us anything it' that barring injury, he doesn't change his starting line-up.

That said, if Parham, Owens, Hamilton and maybe Nigel James develop as fast as Coach Smart thinks they will, then making Ben Gold this year's version of Bill Neary or some type of Super Sixth Man may well happen. If each of the aforementioned folks develop quickly, we're going to have a really good team!

I'd probably be looking at Ben in the 18 minute to 22 minute range, assuming optimistic development. Wades, if the team is more talented, then, definitely, this will happen.

We'll see. It would go against everything Shaka has done here for 4 years for Ben to be going into his senior year, expected to be one of the leaders of the team, and see his minutes drop. I'd put the chances of that happening at 0.00%.

[Jockey]

I'm not convinced that Tre is a total and complete after thought. Rough start, but is there a world in which he plays great defense, distributes well, doesn't turn it over much, plays a little bully ball to get to the line... ORtg jumps to 104-108 on 16-18% usage.. and he's seeing more than the zero to six in the above projections?... say 11-12? I say yes, there is a world. Will we see it.. dunno, but I'm not writing him off yet. #pray

I agree That Tre will be in the 10+ range. I think Shaka has much more trust in him than in the freshmen who will have to show that they deserve to play. I think we know that Tre is not starter material, but off the bench, I think he will do better than most fans think.

#strongbodiesmatter

[Shooter McGavin]

I agree That Tre will be in the 10+ range. I think Shaka has much more trust in him than in the freshmen who will have to show that they deserve to play. I think we know that Tre is not starter material, but off the bench, I think he will do better than most fans think.

#strongbodiesmatter

Would definitely be a bonus if Tre was able to contribute in a meaningful way to a winning team.  Hope you and JB are right.   

[Nukem2]

I agree That Tre will be in the 10+ range. I think Shaka has much more trust in him than in the freshmen who will have to show that they deserve to play. I think we know that Tre is not starter material, but off the bench, I think he will do better than most fans think.

#strongbodiesmatter

Yup, as a junior, Tre is going to have every opportunity to get those minutes or more unles he doesn't produce quality minutes.

[Badgerhater]

Predicting lots of minutes for 1st and 2nd year players while stating less minutes for 3rd and 4th year players under Shaka Smart is silly, but Scoop, collectively, loves to wishcast the immediate ability of new players.

[tower912]

Ben: 30.  20 at the 5, 10 at the 4
Josh/Caedin: 20 at the 5
Royce: 28
Chase: 30
Zaide : 22
Damarius: 26. A couple at the 4
Sean: 27
Tre:10
Nigel: 8

Ish

What will be interesting to me this season is how quickly Shaka shuffles the minutes when, say, Chase injures his thumb on a dunk or Ben gets shin splints.  Last season a whole lot of guys played through a whole lot.

If Shaka is serious about playing faster and pressuring more, how far down the bench will he go?   

The number of potential combinations is fascinating.  It may actually be on a game to game basis.

Will MU still switch 1-5 or switch 1-4 and have the big play more drop?

I do not see how MU can play Sean and NJ together against high majors.  Size differential with them both on the floor is too great.

[MU82]

The only thing I'm predicting is that if he believes that a freshman gives Marquette a better chance to succeed, Shaka will play said freshman more than an upperclassman who gives us less chance to succeed.  I predict Shaka won't be stubborn just because.

Whether or not James and/or Stevens fit the bill, we'll see in the coming weeks and months.

[Jay Bee]

Chase   32
Gold   27
Royce   25
Sean    24
Zaide    19
Owens   17
James   15
Caedin   13
Tre   10
Stevens   8
Clark   6
MP   4

[jfp61]

This is WAYYYY to Zaide heavy. He is probably the 4th best guy on the team.
But, the gap between him and Gold and Parham is big.

Nigel James, Damarius Owens, Tre Norman, Adrien Stevens, and Sean Jones are all closer to his level, than he is to Royce.

[MuMark]

No prediction........just thought this was cool

https://x.com/marquettembb/status/1985372801151176856?s=61&t=6XPB8f4sAKmJIzxgMcsCjw

[MU82]

This is WAYYYY to Zaide heavy. He is probably the 4th best guy on the team.
But, the gap between him and Gold and Parham is big.

Nigel James, Damarius Owens, Tre Norman, Adrien Stevens, and Sean Jones are all closer to his level, than he is to Royce.

How do you know which players have improved the most? I'm not asking to be difficult, just seriously interested in understanding why you are so sure about this. Did you get to observe off-season workouts and practice the last many weeks?

[jfp61]

How do you know which players have improved the most? I'm not asking to be difficult, just seriously interested in understanding why you are so sure about this. Did you get to observe off-season workouts and practice the last many weeks?

how do you know, you don't... You guess based on prior years performance, age... etc etc.

But, im critiquing the minutes guessed not anything else

[Galway Eagle]

This is WAYYYY to Zaide heavy. He is probably the 4th best guy on the team.
But, the gap between him and Gold and Parham is big.

Nigel James, Damarius Owens, Tre Norman, Adrien Stevens, and Sean Jones are all closer to his level, than he is to Royce.

This is an absurd take. As is including 2 unknowns and a guy who hasn't played in a year and a half. Zaide really came on second half of last year and became reliable.

[jfp61]

This is an absurd take. As is including 2 unknowns and a guy who hasn't played in a year and a half. Zaide really came on second half of last year and became reliable.

Not really, kinda only played really good once in a loss to Nova. He played better than he personally did at the start of the season. He played more at the end of last year. But it coiencided with, marquette losing more.

I still think zaide better than all of these people, but he is closer to that bunch than he is to Gold or Parham.

Owens, James, and Stevens are unknowns but they are good actually high ceiling unknowns. This staff swears by Sean Jones and so ill stick with it, even if i don't truely beleive in it. I see the speed. And Tre is a fine defender which is not something to be ignored.

[brewcity77]

Not really, kinda only played really good once in a loss to Nova. He played better than he personally did at the start of the season. He played more at the end of last year. But it coiencided with, marquette losing more.

I still think zaide better than all of these people, but he is closer to that bunch than he is to Gold or Parham.

Owens, James, and Stevens are unknowns but they are good actually high ceiling unknowns. This staff swears by Sean Jones and so ill stick with it, even if i don't truely beleive in it. I see the speed. And Tre is a fine defender which is not something to be ignored.

Reality would like to check in with you.

Zaide Games 1-18
ORtg: 102.8
eFG%: 51.3
TO%: 17.8
3PFG%: 26.9

Zaide Games 19-34
ORtg: 130.6
eFG%: 60.9
TO%: 5.2
3PFG%: 46.7

Zaide was rewarded with minutes during that stretch and basically nailed Norman and Owens to the bench. With three starters gone he pretty clearly slots into a starting position and it would be shocking to me if he wasn't in the starting lineup tonight.

Zaide might be in the 20-24 range instead of 26, but barring injury he's likely in line for starter minutes, and came into this season multiple steps ahead of the returners you mention and the the freshmen.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

By all accounts, Zaide has had a terrific off-season.

I'm very intrigued to see what he does tonight.

[Galway Eagle]

Not really, kinda only played really good once in a loss to Nova. He played better than he personally did at the start of the season. He played more at the end of last year. But it coiencided with, marquette losing more.

I still think zaide better than all of these people, but he is closer to that bunch than he is to Gold or Parham.

Owens, James, and Stevens are unknowns but they are good actually high ceiling unknowns. This staff swears by Sean Jones and so ill stick with it, even if i don't truely beleive in it. I see the speed. And Tre is a fine defender which is not something to be ignored.

See Brew's response as it's a nice well organized version of what I was going to say. As far as the new comers, are we seriously falling for the "these freshmen are going to be the next greatest thing ever" coach speak? I feel like this has been the same routine for years now.

[jfp61]

Reality would like to check in with you.

Zaide Games 1-18
ORtg: 102.8
eFG%: 51.3
TO%: 17.8
3PFG%: 26.9

Zaide Games 19-34
ORtg: 130.6
eFG%: 60.9
TO%: 5.2
3PFG%: 46.7

He played better than he personally did at the start of the season.

[/b]


If Zaide plays 30 minutes. I'll eat crow on this. But i just don't think that happens if this team is really good. Like that number would require a lack of health for alot of guys not named Zaide.

There was a predictor that had him having more minutes than Chase Ross.

No one had him under 22 minutes. That is a little wonky.

The lineups won't be settled this year. Shaka said that himself