Offensive Four Factors Outlook 2025-26

[Jay Bee]

Ugh. Torvik has our offense at 72. KenPom just dropped - were tagged with 69 on O.

Sadly, these are realistic. Watch the rough to% rate (vs last year) which is inevitable and pray for great outside shooting.

[jfp61]

Ugh. Torvik has our offense at 72. KenPom just dropped - were tagged with 69 on O.

Sadly, these are realistic. Watch the rough to% rate (vs last year) which is inevitable and pray for great outside shooting.

I am going to be call to bench sean jones for nigel james by our second game next year.

[DoctorV]

I am going to be call to bench sean jones for nigel james by our second game next year.

Why wait for the 2nd game?

[brewcity77]

Ugh. Torvik has our offense at 72. KenPom just dropped - were tagged with 69 on O.

Sadly, these are realistic. Watch the rough to% rate (vs last year) which is inevitable and pray for great outside shooting.

We'll be top-50 at worst.

[Scoop Snoop]

We'll be top-50 at worst.

Would you be willing to speculate on our upside? If not, I understand. The unknowns seem to be quite a bit higher for Marquette this season. Hopefully, we are pleasantly surprised like we were in Shaka's second season.

[brewcity77]

Would you be willing to speculate on our upside? If not, I understand. The unknowns seem to be quite a bit higher for Marquette this season. Hopefully, we are pleasantly surprised like we were in Shaka's second season.

Consider it a "read the Cracked Sidewalks Marquette preview" suggestion, but overall I think that'll be our offensive floor for the next few coming years.

[dgies9156]

Brother/Sister Scoopers:

Relax. We're barely into fall practice and everyone is all but writing off our team. Give Coach Smart some credit for player development. Oso, Tyler and Kam weren't finished products when they arrived on campus. Coach Smart got them to be the polished products to which we became all too accustomed.

We'll be fine and someone will step up. I'm sure of it.

Not one of my finer comments!

Boy, I was off on this one. For now!

[Jay Bee]

In mid-September I offered up my thoughts on our offensive four factors. We're done with games through February with at least four more to be played, but going to take a quick visit to see how things are coming along vs. projections.

A year ago, our raw OE was #63 and our KenPom Adj OE was #35. Quick summary: I'm a bit worried and believe our Adj OE will rank worse this coming year... the only hope is crazy good shooting.

The only hope was crazy good shooting and it's been awful. So, there ya go.

FT Rate - ranked #346 last year. Stevie's loss will be felt here, but a high-usage guy like Kam Jones was not a guy who got to the line.. there's not much room to fall, and it's very possible we are a little better this year.. but not meaningfully. We won't be a team that gets to the line a lot. (PS - FT% no matta, but I'd love to get to the line more).

We're ranked #261 nationally at 32.1 (avg is 35.2). In conference we're just 28.4. We're a little better, but still bad. This is in line with expectations.

OR% - Nice improvement a year ago to rank #180. For a HM team, not good, but for us.. it was OK....All in all, I think being around the same as last year is attainable and perhaps a little improved. We're not going to be a strong OR% team.. but hopefully not miserable... I project to us again be 'ok, for us'.

30.0% last year ranked us #180. We're slightly improved at 30.3% percentage-wise, but down to #190 nationally. This is in line with expectations.

TO% - SO GOOD last year. #8 in the nation. I'm hella concerned here. Our point guard was at 11.1% and Stevie was a sub 10% guy. Incredible. We will fall here this season -- the question is by how much....We are in trouble here. I'm hoping we can be a "good" TO% team.. maybe in the #40-50's... but there's a decent chance it's even worse. Huge area to keep an eye on and my biggest fear on offense.

At 15.8% this season, we rank #114 nationally - a big drop from #8 a year ago. To jump from #114 to into the 50's, however, would be done by only chopping 1% off the 15.8%. So, not an enormous GAP, but vs. last year it's icky. However, a big drop here was expected. In line with expectations.

eFG% - This is our only hope for sustaining or improving on last year's Adj OE rankings. Our 2FG% of 54.7% ranked #52 in the land - very good....our 2FG% is in trouble. Let's hope for something like 52.5%.

Now, the ray of hope - 3FG shooting. Our 46.4% 3FGA/FGA was somewhat high and by design... wouldn't expect it to be crazy different, but would project maybe a little decrease. Jop and Kam took a lot. However, they were relatively bad for the season on a whole at 32.3% and 31.1%, respectively. As a team, we were at 32.6%, which ranked #237. In 2025-26, some of the same guys who could help us in 2FG% have the same opportunity from deep.. e.g., Ben and Royce. Royce shot only 28.0% last year, but (1) he can be A LOT better and (2) he will shoot A LOT. Does Chase have an incredible year with higher volume? Certainly possible. Wish frosh like M. Phillips and I. M. were more ready, but their help from outside can come in later years...

Last season our 52.0% eFG% was #115 in the nation. If* our 2FG% was 52.5% and our 3FG% rose to say 34.5%, with a 46% 3FGA/FGA... which I think are not unreasonable projections... we'd be at 52.2%, or a little better than last year. However, to make up for the projected drop in TO% performance, we need even better... can that happen? Of course.. but, tough to project.

It was our only hope and it's been putrid. 2FGA at 52.0% isn't crazy off my 'hope' of 52.5%, but still a far cry from last season - expected. 3FGA/FGA of 41.1% is indeed down from last year's 46.4%, but the accuracy is ugly.. 32.2% (#269) vs. 32.6% (#237 last year).. not a big drop, but this is where we needed to do well. Sure, Royce is better than 28.0%, but for the year has been bad (31.1%). IM redshirted and MP just doesn't have the volume to help much this year. Kudos to Nigel and Adrien for helping here, but it's been the ... almost unthinkable ... dreadful shooting of the seniors that has bogged down our 3FG% this year. Chase sub-28% and Ben sub-26%. Unreal, and has made a good offensive year impossible, all other factors considered.

So, the recap is TO%, OR%, and FT rate all behaving in line with expectations. eFG% was known to be the key, and was the only hope... it's turned out even worse due to the brutal 3FG shooting and insane amount of missed at-the-rim shots.

Do we need guys that can shoot? YES. But, also defend. I do want an experienced big man addition next season, but a guy that can shoot with some volume and do well from outside (e.g., wing) would be delicious as well.

#pray

[Newsdreams]

In mid-September I offered up my thoughts on our offensive four factors. We're done with games through February with at least four more to be played, but going to take a quick visit to see how things are coming along vs. projections.

The only hope was crazy good shooting and it's been awful. So, there ya go.

We're ranked #261 nationally at 32.1 (avg is 35.2). In conference we're just 28.4. We're a little better, but still bad. This is in line with expectations.

30.0% last year ranked us #180. We're slightly improved at 30.3% percentage-wise, but down to #190 nationally. This is in line with expectations.

At 15.8% this season, we rank #114 nationally - a big drop from #8 a year ago. To jump from #114 to into the 50's, however, would be done by only chopping 1% off the 15.8%. So, not an enormous GAP, but vs. last year it's icky. However, a big drop here was expected. In line with expectations.

It was our only hope and it's been putrid. 2FGA at 52.0% isn't crazy off my 'hope' of 52.5%, but still a far cry from last season - expected. 3FGA/FGA of 41.1% is indeed down from last year's 46.4%, but the accuracy is ugly.. 32.2% (#269) vs. 32.6% (#237 last year).. not a big drop, but this is where we needed to do well. Sure, Royce is better than 28.0%, but for the year has been bad (31.1%). IM redshirted and MP just doesn't have the volume to help much this year. Kudos to Nigel and Adrien for helping here, but it's been the ... almost unthinkable ... dreadful shooting of the seniors that has bogged down our 3FG% this year. Chase sub-28% and Ben sub-26%. Unreal, and has made a good offensive year impossible, all other factors considered.

So, the recap is TO%, OR%, and FT rate all behaving in line with expectations. eFG% was known to be the key, and was the only hope... it's turned out even worse due to the brutal 3FG shooting and insane amount of missed at-the-rim shots.

Do we need guys that can shoot? YES. But, also defend. I do want an experienced big man addition next season, but a guy that can shoot with some volume and do well from outside (e.g., wing) would be delicious as well.

#pray

Fts??

[Jay Bee]

Our final rankings may move just a bit over the coming weeks, but should be close. Let's do a post mortem, looking at my September 2025 offensive outlook.

A year ago, our raw OE was #63 and our KenPom Adj OE was #35. Quick summary: I'm a bit worried and believe our Adj OE will rank worse this coming year... the only hope is crazy good shooting.

Our only hope - shooting - was trash. Therefore, we sucked. #donedeal

Also, fair to note that offensive efficiency was up a good amount this season -- 108.4 vs. 106.2. Certainly the continuation foul rule update played a part, but all four factors were improved in DI bball.

FT Rate - ranked #346 last year. Stevie's loss will be felt here, but a high-usage guy like Kam Jones was not a guy who got to the line.. there's not much room to fall, and it's very possible we are a little better this year.. but not meaningfully. We won't be a team that gets to the line a lot. (PS - FT% no matta, but I'd love to get to the line more).

We improved to 32.8% (#244 nationally), up from 25.9%. Some improvement, but not a team that got to the line a lot. Actuals were in line with projections.

OR% - Nice improvement a year ago to rank #180. For a HM team, not good, but for us.. it was OK. Again, Stevie's loss here is notable (7.0% OR%), but our "PF" was only a 4.6% guy. Can Ben improve? Royce in HS was strong on the o-glass, weak on the d... and that was the case again last year. I think he'll do good things and if the backup centers get any run, they will help as well. All in all, I think being around the same as last year is attainable and perhaps a little improved. We're not going to be a strong OR% team.. but hopefully not miserable... I project to us again be 'ok, for us'.

29.7% (#217), down slightly from 30.0% (#180) a season ago. Things were looking a little better, but conference play drug us down (27.1%, whereas last year we improved in conf to 31.5%). I'd point to Zaide's departure and guards missing a lot of shots at the rim as reasons why we weren't just a bit better.. but, we were going to be 'ok, for us' regardless. Actuals in line with projections.

TO% - SO GOOD last year. #8 in the nation. I'm hella concerned here. Our point guard was at 11.1% and Stevie was a sub 10% guy. Incredible. We will fall here this season -- the question is by how much. Does Ben get more involved and we see his TO% rise? At the point, whether it's Sean, Nigel or Tre... it ain't gonna be 11.1%. We are in trouble here. I'm hoping we can be a "good" TO% team.. maybe in the #40-50's... but there's a decent chance it's even worse. Huge area to keep an eye on and my biggest fear on offense.

Nigel was great and I'll take 17.7% for the load he had to carry (pawz), but it's a far cry from 11.1%. MU's to% jumped to 16.0% (#137) from last year's 13.6%. Now, there's not an enormous GAP between a lot of teams - for example, going to just 14.7% would have put us in the top 50... but, vs. last year it's a big leap that needed to be offset elsewhere (shooting), or we were eff'd.

eFG% - This is our only hope for sustaining or improving on last year's Adj OE rankings. Our 2FG% of 54.7% ranked #52 in the land - very good. We lose Kam's high volume and super strong mark of 58.6%. Gulp. JoLp was at 55.0%. Now, maybe getting Royce and Ben shots inside more often helps combat things.. but our 2FG% is in trouble. Let's hope for something like 52.5%.

For the reasons noted above, we expected 2FG% to drop. We finished the year at 52.6%, or "something like 52.5%" that we hoped for. Sure, it's a tough fall compared to the prior year, but it was fully expected.

Now, the ray of hope - 3FG shooting. Our 46.4% 3FGA/FGA was somewhat high and by design... wouldn't expect it to be crazy different, but would project maybe a little decrease. Jop and Kam took a lot. However, they were relatively bad for the season on a whole at 32.3% and 31.1%, respectively. As a team, we were at 32.6%, which ranked #237. In 2025-26, some of the same guys who could help us in 2FG% have the same opportunity from deep.. e.g., Ben and Royce. Royce shot only 28.0% last year, but (1) he can be A LOT better and (2) he will shoot A LOT. Does Chase have an incredible year with higher volume? Certainly possible. Wish frosh like M. Phillips and I. M. were more ready, but their help from outside can come in later years...

Last season our 52.0% eFG% was #115 in the nation. If* our 2FG% was 52.5% and our 3FG% rose to say 34.5%, with a 46% 3FGA/FGA... which I think are not unreasonable projections... we'd be at 52.2%, or a little better than last year. However, to make up for the projected drop in TO% performance, we need even better... can that happen? Of course.. but, tough to project.

This one is simply that Ben, Chase and Royce didn't come through as needed and therefore our offense stunk. As noted above, Royce had an easy comp -- he finished at 33.3% and in a silo we'd take it (pawz). But, needed even more help from him. I do think some of his 'auto-three attempts' were reduced as the season progressed and still think he has another level in the future where he can have decent volume and a mid-to-high 30's season... but it wasn't this year.

Chase shot 29.5%, down from 36.5% the year prior. Ouch.

Ben had the second most 3FGA on the team, going 37/140 for 26.4%. WTH? As a junior he was at 37.1%.

Just crushing performances from the seniors. Nigel and Adrien helped relative to the three above, but it's not as if they had insanely great years from outside (34.7% for NJ; Adrien at 37.5% - with the most attempts, so daps to him though and I hope he can repeat and/or improve next year - we really need it).

So there you have it. It was a pretty simple preseason read: MU's OR% and FTRate weren't going to do anything for them. TO% was going to be an issue. 2FG% was going to go down. These were all known. The only question was 3FG%. There was a path to improvement, but our seniors couldn't buy a bucket from outside. Our team 3FG% of 31.8% ranked #289 nationally.

[burger]

What was Tre EFG....Let alone his +/- for the season.....

Got to be at least a minus 200.....

[Jay Bee]

What was Tre EFG....Let alone his +/- for the season.....

Got to be at least a minus 200.....

Career-high 44.1% for Tre!! No idea on +/-. Only other regular with a worse eFG% was 18 -- 42.3%.