Offensive Four Factors Outlook 2025-26

[Jay Bee]

There are a lot of question marks for me with regard to player minutes, but some high-level thoughts on our offensive for this season.

A year ago, our raw OE was #63 and our KenPom Adj OE was #35. Quick summary: I'm a bit worried and believe our Adj OE will rank worse this coming year... the only hope is crazy good shooting.

FT Rate - ranked #346 last year. Stevie's loss will be felt here, but a high-usage guy like Kam Jones was not a guy who got to the line.. there's not much room to fall, and it's very possible we are a little better this year.. but not meaningfully. We won't be a team that gets to the line a lot. (PS - FT% no matta, but I'd love to get to the line more).

OR% - Nice improvement a year ago to rank #180. For a HM team, not good, but for us.. it was OK. Again, Stevie's loss here is notable (7.0% OR%), but our "PF" was only a 4.6% guy. Can Ben improve? Royce in HS was strong on the o-glass, weak on the d... and that was the case again last year. I think he'll do good things and if the backup centers get any run, they will help as well. All in all, I think being around the same as last year is attainable and perhaps a little improved. We're not going to be a strong OR% team.. but hopefully not miserable... I project to us again be 'ok, for us'.

So, the two above factors don't do much to hurt or help us when looking ahead to 2025-26. It comes down to the next two.

TO% - SO GOOD last year. #8 in the nation. I'm hella concerned here. Our point guard was at 11.1% and Stevie was a sub 10% guy. Incredible. We will fall here this season -- the question is by how much. Does Ben get more involved and we see his TO% rise? At the point, whether it's Sean, Nigel or Tre... it ain't gonna be 11.1%. We are in trouble here. I'm hoping we can be a "good" TO% team.. maybe in the #40-50's... but there's a decent chance it's even worse. Huge area to keep an eye on and my biggest fear on offense.

eFG% - This is our only hope for sustaining or improving on last year's Adj OE rankings. Our 2FG% of 54.7% ranked #52 in the land - very good. We lose Kam's high volume and super strong mark of 58.6%. Gulp. JoLp was at 55.0%. Now, maybe getting Royce and Ben shots inside more often helps combat things.. but our 2FG% is in trouble. Let's hope for something like 52.5%.

Now, the ray of hope - 3FG shooting. Our 46.4% 3FGA/FGA was somewhat high and by design... wouldn't expect it to be crazy different, but would project maybe a little decrease. Jop and Kam took a lot. However, they were relatively bad for the season on a whole at 32.3% and 31.1%, respectively. As a team, we were at 32.6%, which ranked #237. In 2025-26, some of the same guys who could help us in 2FG% have the same opportunity from deep.. e.g., Ben and Royce. Royce shot only 28.0% last year, but (1) he can be A LOT better and (2) he will shoot A LOT. Does Chase have an incredible year with higher volume? Certainly possible. Wish frosh like M. Phillips and I. M. were more ready, but their help from outside can come in later years...

Last season our 52.0% eFG% was #115 in the nation. If* our 2FG% was 52.5% and our 3FG% rose to say 34.5%, with a 46% 3FGA/FGA... which I think are not unreasonable projections... we'd be at 52.2%, or a little better than last year. However, to make up for the projected drop in TO% performance, we need even better... can that happen? Of course.. but, tough to project.

Overall, I think hoping for a similar (#35) or slightly down (#40s) Adj OE ranking in 2025-26 isn't crazy, but the floor is a lot lower. Would be sad to see us drop into say the #70s... making up a number here, but I'll hope we figure some things out and land around #48. We just need shots to fall.

#pray

[Badgerhater]

How did the final percentages last year match up to the pre-season estimates/expectatations?

[Jay Bee]

How did the final percentages last year match up to the pre-season estimates/expectatations?

OK. FT rate - "we're just not going to be a good FT rate team." That was pretty easy.


"OR% - We were weak at #285 nationally.  Oso easily led the way with his 9.4%. I do think Royce is a guy who can do well on the o-boards immediately, and perhaps Ben can get near Oso...  but here again, we are going to be a weak OR% team." - better than expected. Royce was good but not a lotta minutes. Weak for a HM, but #180 isn't nearly as bad as the previous year.. so, better than I projected.

"TO% - Strong #30 ranking last year, turning it over at a rate of just 14.3%. Frankly, everyone was good... but when I look at what Kam will likely be doing this year, I'm not expecting a repeat of his excellent 10.7% rate. Not that I think it'll explode – just don't see it as repeatable."

Kam only slightly higher. He was really good.


"We can still be a good team at TO%, but I have trouble projecting a scenario where we'll show marked improvement."

We went from #30 to #8. It was terrific, which makes this year troubling from a comp perspective. They outperformed in TO% last year.

"eFG% - We're down to the most important factor as our only hope. We were great last season – 55.0%, good for #21 in the nation.. So, the problem is there isn't a ton of room to move up. A bigger problem is our 2FG% of 56.6% (#13).

Gone is Oso and his 58.0% 2FG%. Sure, Ben was at 75.8%, but those were limited attempts and a lot of dunks. Can he be a 60% guy? Certainly.

Stevie Mitchell's 63.1% would be tough to repeat. Kam's 59.6% 2FG% was great, and it's certainly possible he could wind up with something similar this year... but can't project dramatic improvement. Chase (47.6%) and the frosh may find a way to get it done... and Jop can be quite a bit better than his 50.0%.. but overall I'm not banking on improvement in 2FG% and expect it to be down a bit."

2FG% down was on point... but, ultimately the 3FG% drugged us down too much. It was a tough comp, but with the bad 3FG% .. not good.

"Over the course of the season, I think our offense is down. It won't be bad – it'll be good. But, not flirting with elite. I'd probably be happy with something in the mid-30's, but would project more in the ballpark of the mid-40's."

Got to the mid-30s on the strength of the amazing low TO%. But again.. that's a big concern heading into this season. TO%. #pray

[brewcity77]

Last year, the lack of 3PFG efficiency from Kam and Jop was an anchor on our eFG%. If the offense is to get better (and I think it certainly can) it will be because we are at least competent from beyond the arc. It doesn't need to be elite, but just get us from 32.6% up to a more average 35% and we'll be okay.

[tower912]

We have a pretty good idea what the offense will look like.  If it is Sean, more driving and dishing, but familiar concepts.  5 out motion.

To me, the bigger unknown will be defensive rotations.  I cannot see switching 1-5  with the size of James and Jones and the inexperience of Clark and Hamilton.  Every time a big is on the perimeter with a 6 ft guard in the post is a disadvantage.

[avid1010]

ZL and DO are the two that I feel could make or break this season.  If they develop I would think MU's future is bright for years to come.

[Shooter McGavin]

Thanks for the analysis JB!

[brewcity77]

We have a pretty good idea what the offense will look like.  If it is Sean, more driving and dishing, but familiar concepts.  5 out motion.

To me, the bigger unknown will be defensive rotations.  I cannot see switching 1-5  with the size of James and Jones and the inexperience of Clark and Hamilton.  Every time a big is on the perimeter with a 6 ft guard in the post is a disadvantage.

For me, it will depend more on the young guys than Sean. I remember him being able to hold position in the post against guys he gave up a foot to because his lower body is so strong. No, he's not going to go toe-to-toe all night long, but if he's switched for a possession or two, Sean is strong enough to manage things until a help defender pressures the ball and forces a turnover or pass out.

With Clark, I wonder if more drop coverage might be best. He could use his length on the perimeter than get back into the paint when he switches off. At least until he develops game instincts at the position. Besides, our defensive rebounding is generally ass so what could it hurt? 

[jfp61]

BOLD PREDICTION.

We will be worse on offense without Kam Jones, who might have our best offensive player ever last year.

[tower912]

I am still more worried about the defense.  For example, double teams.  Perimeter double teams have been player initiated.  One of the reasons they have been effective is due to their random nature.  And, with all of the experience.  Chase and Ben trap along the sideline at the foul line extended.  Stevie, Joplin, Kam recognize it and rotate appropriately. 

This season, Chase and Ben make the same double team.  Will Sean/Nigel/Tre, Zaide/Damarius, Royce/Caedin/Josh automatically make the correct rotation/adjustment?

That will take more time than the offense.

[dgies9156]

Brother/Sister Scoopers:

Relax. We're barely into fall practice and everyone is all but writing off our team. Give Coach Smart some credit for player development. Oso, Tyler and Kam weren't finished products when they arrived on campus. Coach Smart got them to be the polished products to which we became all too accustomed.

We'll be fine and someone will step up. I'm sure of it.

[MU82]

Brother/Sister Scoopers:

Relax. We're barely into fall practice and everyone is all but writing off our team. Give Coach Smart some credit for player development. Oso, Tyler and Kam weren't finished products when they arrived on campus. Coach Smart got them to be the polished products to which we became all too accustomed.

We'll be fine and someone will step up. I'm sure of it.

I'm not writing off the team at all. We're gonna have a fun season.

[tower912]

I remain optimistic, as always. 

[Jay Bee]

BOLD PREDICTION.

We will be worse on offense without Kam Jones, who might have our best offensive player ever last year.

We're talking about team offense here.

Over the past nine seasons, only two times was our offense 'worse' (from a team Adj OE perspective) than it was this past year.

[The Sultan]

Brother/Sister Scoopers:

Relax. We're barely into fall practice and everyone is all but writing off our team. Give Coach Smart some credit for player development. Oso, Tyler and Kam weren't finished products when they arrived on campus. Coach Smart got them to be the polished products to which we became all too accustomed.

We'll be fine and someone will step up. I'm sure of it.

Counterpoint: While we had improvement, no one really stepped up significantly last year.

[The Sultan]

BOLD PREDICTION.

We will be worse on offense without Kam Jones, who might have our best offensive player ever last year.

Markus Howard's senior year was significanly better than Jones' offensively. Likely his junior year as well.

[jfp61]

We're talking about team offense here.

Over the past nine seasons, only two times was our offense 'worse' (from a team Adj OE perspective) than it was this past year.

Yes, because everyone around kam was pretty bad.