Offensive Four Factors Outlook 2025-26

[Jay Bee]

There are a lot of question marks for me with regard to player minutes, but some high-level thoughts on our offensive for this season.

A year ago, our raw OE was #63 and our KenPom Adj OE was #35. Quick summary: I'm a bit worried and believe our Adj OE will rank worse this coming year... the only hope is crazy good shooting.

FT Rate - ranked #346 last year. Stevie's loss will be felt here, but a high-usage guy like Kam Jones was not a guy who got to the line.. there's not much room to fall, and it's very possible we are a little better this year.. but not meaningfully. We won't be a team that gets to the line a lot. (PS - FT% no matta, but I'd love to get to the line more).

OR% - Nice improvement a year ago to rank #180. For a HM team, not good, but for us.. it was OK. Again, Stevie's loss here is notable (7.0% OR%), but our "PF" was only a 4.6% guy. Can Ben improve? Royce in HS was strong on the o-glass, weak on the d... and that was the case again last year. I think he'll do good things and if the backup centers get any run, they will help as well. All in all, I think being around the same as last year is attainable and perhaps a little improved. We're not going to be a strong OR% team.. but hopefully not miserable... I project to us again be 'ok, for us'.

So, the two above factors don't do much to hurt or help us when looking ahead to 2025-26. It comes down to the next two.

TO% - SO GOOD last year. #8 in the nation. I'm hella concerned here. Our point guard was at 11.1% and Stevie was a sub 10% guy. Incredible. We will fall here this season -- the question is by how much. Does Ben get more involved and we see his TO% rise? At the point, whether it's Sean, Nigel or Tre... it ain't gonna be 11.1%. We are in trouble here. I'm hoping we can be a "good" TO% team.. maybe in the #40-50's... but there's a decent chance it's even worse. Huge area to keep an eye on and my biggest fear on offense.

eFG% - This is our only hope for sustaining or improving on last year's Adj OE rankings. Our 2FG% of 54.7% ranked #52 in the land - very good. We lose Kam's high volume and super strong mark of 58.6%. Gulp. JoLp was at 55.0%. Now, maybe getting Royce and Ben shots inside more often helps combat things.. but our 2FG% is in trouble. Let's hope for something like 52.5%.

Now, the ray of hope - 3FG shooting. Our 46.4% 3FGA/FGA was somewhat high and by design... wouldn't expect it to be crazy different, but would project maybe a little decrease. Jop and Kam took a lot. However, they were relatively bad for the season on a whole at 32.3% and 31.1%, respectively. As a team, we were at 32.6%, which ranked #237. In 2025-26, some of the same guys who could help us in 2FG% have the same opportunity from deep.. e.g., Ben and Royce. Royce shot only 28.0% last year, but (1) he can be A LOT better and (2) he will shoot A LOT. Does Chase have an incredible year with higher volume? Certainly possible. Wish frosh like M. Phillips and I. M. were more ready, but their help from outside can come in later years...

Last season our 52.0% eFG% was #115 in the nation. If* our 2FG% was 52.5% and our 3FG% rose to say 34.5%, with a 46% 3FGA/FGA... which I think are not unreasonable projections... we'd be at 52.2%, or a little better than last year. However, to make up for the projected drop in TO% performance, we need even better... can that happen? Of course.. but, tough to project.

Overall, I think hoping for a similar (#35) or slightly down (#40s) Adj OE ranking in 2025-26 isn't crazy, but the floor is a lot lower. Would be sad to see us drop into say the #70s... making up a number here, but I'll hope we figure some things out and land around #48. We just need shots to fall.

#pray

[Badgerhater]

How did the final percentages last year match up to the pre-season estimates/expectatations?