Leading scorer 25-26

[HutchwasClutch]

Sean with double digit average without starting?

Even if he starts, and I think he will be a season long starter presuming his knee is good again, do not at all see him being a double digit average scorer.  That's not the type of player he is, and his primary roles will be setup offense, distribute, and harass on defense.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

I see Chase, Zaide, DO splitting the minutes at the 2-3 relatively evenly.  Plus, three of the 4 freshman are 2's or 3's.  Depth at his position keeps him fresh. 
DO is not a 4.

There isn't really a backup 4 on the roster. Maybe Gold can play it sometimes but that depends on Hamilton and Clark being able to man the 5 for stretches.

But it will also depend on matchups against teams with two bigs.  Against smaller, quicker 4s, I expect to see three switchables when Royce needs a rest. Royce might also play some minutes at the 5, meaning more 3 switchable lineups.

[Uncle Rico]

Ramsey

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Even if he starts, and I think he will be a season long starter presuming his knee is good again, do not at all see him being a double digit average scorer.  That's not the type of player he is, and his primary roles will be setup offense, distribute, and harass on defense.

If you take Sean's sophomore scoring average and extrapolate it over 28 minutes per game, he would average 10.02 PPG.

Not saying that it's a guarantee, but Sean averaging double figures is within the realm of possibility.

[HutchwasClutch]

If you take Sean's sophomore scoring average and extrapolate it over 28 minutes per game, he would average 10.02 PPG.

Not saying that it's a guarantee, but Sean averaging double figures is within the realm of possibility.

You could extrapolate minutes for any player and create the illusion they're capable of something that defies their skill set and logic. 

[tower912]

I feel that way about posters.

[The Sultan]

I feel that way about posters.

Why are you attacking me?

[brewcity77]

Even if he starts, and I think he will be a season long starter presuming his knee is good again, do not at all see him being a double digit average scorer.  That's not the type of player he is, and his primary roles will be setup offense, distribute, and harass on defense.

LOL

I'm going to guess you don't really remember Sean Jones very well, then.

First, if he is fully healthy, he's going to start and play 25+ minutes per game.

Second, not only does he have the highest historical usage season of any player on the team, but Sean isn't just a passing point. His highest assist rate was 20.2%. For comparison, our last three starting PGs had assist rates of 39.8% (TKO while also averaging 12.9 ppg), 42.1% (TKO while also averaging 15.3 ppg), and 38.2% (Kam while also averaging 19.2 ppg). So the idea that Sean would not be able to create for others and average double-digits is simply incorrect.

Third, of returning players, here are the ten highest rates of Shot Percentage in a season, which is what percent of the team's shots a player took while on the floor:

1. 20.9% - Royce Parham, 2025
2. 19.9% - Sean Jones, 2024
3. 19.8% - Ben Gold, 2023
4. 17.2% - Sean Jones, 2023
5. 16.0% - Damarius Owens, 2025
6. 15.9% - Ben Gold, 2024
7. 15.9% - Tre Norman, 2024
8. 15.7% - Chase Ross, 2025
9. 15.3% - Caedin Hamilton, 2025
10. 15.1% - Chase Ross, 2023

FWIW, Ben's percentage of shots taken has gone down every year and Zaide's highest percent is 13.5%. But simply, the two guys most likely to take shots when given the opportunity are Royce and Sean. They are also both clear successors to Jop and Kam, who were the two highest volume shooters last year.

If Sean is back to being Sean, he's going to be a guy who drives, gets downhill and goes into contact at a higher rate than Kam ever did, takes the open three (but only hits in clutch moments, historically), and is as much a scoring guard as a creating one. If you're expecting him to turn into a game-managing Derrick Wilson or Junior Cadougan, you got the wrong guy.

[HutchwasClutch]

LOL

I'm going to guess you don't really remember Sean Jones very well, then.

First, if he is fully healthy, he's going to start and play 25+ minutes per game.

Second, not only does he have the highest historical usage season of any player on the team, but Sean isn't just a passing point. His highest assist rate was 20.2%. For comparison, our last three starting PGs had assist rates of 39.8% (TKO while also averaging 12.9 ppg), 42.1% (TKO while also averaging 15.3 ppg), and 38.2% (Kam while also averaging 19.2 ppg). So the idea that Sean would not be able to create for others and average double-digits is simply incorrect.

Third, of returning players, here are the ten highest rates of Shot Percentage in a season, which is what percent of the team's shots a player took while on the floor:

1. 20.9% - Royce Parham, 2025
2. 19.9% - Sean Jones, 2024
3. 19.8% - Ben Gold, 2023
4. 17.2% - Sean Jones, 2023
5. 16.0% - Damarius Owens, 2025
6. 15.9% - Ben Gold, 2024
7. 15.9% - Tre Norman, 2024
8. 15.7% - Chase Ross, 2025
9. 15.3% - Caedin Hamilton, 2025
10. 15.1% - Chase Ross, 2023

FWIW, Ben's percentage of shots taken has gone down every year and Zaide's highest percent is 13.5%. But simply, the two guys most likely to take shots when given the opportunity are Royce and Sean. They are also both clear successors to Jop and Kam, who were the two highest volume shooters last year.

If Sean is back to being Sean, he's going to be a guy who drives, gets downhill and goes into contact at a higher rate than Kam ever did, takes the open three (but only hits in clutch moments, historically), and is as much a scoring guard as a creating one. If you're expecting him to turn into a game-managing Derrick Wilson or Junior Cadougan, you got the wrong guy.

Last time he played, he finished at 25% from distance.  Before the ACL injury, he could blow by guys, but had no go to move to finish or even get to the line much.  Now he's coming back from major injury and over a year and a half off of rust on top of these pre injury limitations. 

[Jay Bee]

^^^ yes, and someone has to make a mark in usage. We don't have many candidates for high usage guys, but Sean is up there on the list just behind Royce.

[brewcity77]

Last time he played, he finished at 25% from distance.  Before the ACL injury, he could blow by guys, but had no go to move to finish or even get to the line much.  Now he's coming back from major injury and over a year and a half off of rust on top of these pre injury limitations. 

You could extrapolate minutes for any player and create the illusion they're capable of something that defies their skill set and logic.

What we've seen from Royce and Sean is that they are capable and willing of taking those shots. What we've seen from Ben, Chase, and Zaide is that they will defer to other players, sometimes to the team's detriment, who will take those shots.

Personally, I'm going to extrapolate based on historical logic, which indicates Royce and Sean are the two most likely to get enough shots to be among those scoring leaders. But you do you, I guess.

[HutchwasClutch]

What we've seen from Royce and Sean is that they are capable and willing of taking those shots. What we've seen from Ben, Chase, and Zaide is that they will defer to other players, sometimes to the team's detriment, who will take those shots.

Personally, I'm going to extrapolate based on historical logic, which indicates Royce and Sean are the two most likely to get enough shots to be among those scoring leaders. But you do you, I guess.

Well, the team is going to need Chase, Ben, and Zaire to be much more assertive this year.  None of them should be deferring to Sean.  Sean should be the 5th option on the floor with those guys and Royce.

You also keep going back to usage.  The shots need to go in consistently or that will be destined to drop. So far, he hasn't shown he can do that. 

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Ignoring data in favor of the eye test is certainly a choice. Not the best way to predict future outcomes though.

My analysis was meant to be a simple one. Just one outcome out of all the possible outcomes. That demonstrated a reasonable way Sean could average 10 PPG.

Compare that to Tre Norman, who would average 5.98 PPG in a 28 minute per game extrapolation. That's an example of a player that is highly unlikely to average double figures in scoring.

While my analysis was pretty surface level, but Brew did a great job of using indepth data to further demonstrate how Sean averaging 10 PPG is possible.

This isn't to say anything is guaranteed, just that it is a reasonable possibility.

[HutchwasClutch]

Sean has played 49 career games.  He's been double figures in 3 of them- games of 15 and twice with 11. He's 29% from 3 in his career. He doesn't get to the line much. 

He brings other things to the table but has not been and pretty unlikely to be anything resembling a reliable scorer.  What I appreciate most about him offensively is he'll take and make clutch shots.

[brewcity77]

Well, the team is going to need Chase, Ben, and Zaire to be much more assertive this year.  None of them should be deferring to Sean.  Sean should be the 5th option on the floor with those guys and Royce.

You also keep going back to usage.  The shots need to go in consistently or that will be destined to drop. So far, he hasn't shown he can do that. 

I keep going back to usage because that's not a number subject to wild swings. How do we know Chase is a supplementary scorer? Because we have 102 games in three years of data that proves it. How do we know Ben and Zaide pass on shots in favor of other players? Years of data.

Going back, how did we know Justin was going to break out in 2022, or Kam was going to lead the team in scoring in 2023, or Markus was going to be a monster scorer after his freshman year? Usage! Justin's 23.9% usage indicated someone who would take the lion's share of scoring over guys like Greg Elliott, Darryl Morsell, and Tyler Kolek who had more historic scoring but lower usage pedigrees that indicated they wouldn't match Justin's overall production (and they didn't). For Kam, his freshman year 22.9% of shots taken while on the court is a large part of why I predicted he'd lead us in scoring in 2023 (which he did). For Markus, his 25.4% usage as a freshman (and leading the team in scoring despite being sixth in minutes) made it obvious he was going to be a scoring monster.

I keep going back to this stuff because year after year, class after class, decade after decade, it proves to be the most reliable predictor of future production. And while Sean's past usage is an important indicator, the usage rates of Gold, Chase, and Zaide are just as important because historically players like that don't make huge scoring jumps. Do outliers happen? Sure. But if we're predicting future results, it's wholly nonsensical to predict outliers.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Sean has played 49 career games.  He's been double figures in 3 of them- games of 15 and twice with 11. He's 29% from 3 in his career. He doesn't get to the line much. 

He brings other things to the table but has not been and pretty unlikely to be anything resembling a reliable scorer.  What I appreciate most about him offensively is he'll take and make clutch shots.

And Sean averaged 13.5 MPG for those 49 games. There's a decent chance his minutes double.

I don't think anyone's arguing that he needs to be more efficient. But he's going to have the ball in his hands a lot, and right now we don't have a sure thing as a go-to scorer.

I think that ends up being Royce (or Chase) but it wouldn't shock me to see Sean average low double-digits.

Additionally, in regard to his injury, I would have shared more of those concerns if he did try to come back last season. But with another offseason to get healthy and work on his game, I'm not as worried about him taking a long time to get acclimated.

And while it's certainly not the same as game intensity, it doesn't sound like he's lost his athleticism.

[HutchwasClutch]

What's being ignored and what usage doesn't measure is Sean's a little guy- 5'10 listing is generous, who hasn't shown an ability to shoot from 3 well, finish at the rim, nor get to the line much.  He's a little guy with an ineffective jump shot and can't get his shot off in the paint. 

Unless his shot improves dramatically, which it might, this is why I'm not optimistic he's going to average 10 or more/ game.  Here's hoping I'm wrong. 

[79Warrior]

What's being ignored and what usage doesn't measure is Sean's a little guy- 5'10 listing is generous, who hasn't shown an ability to shoot from 3 well, finish at the rim, nor get to the line much.  He's a little guy with an ineffective jump shot and can't get his shot off in the paint. 

Unless his shot improves dramatically, which it might, this is why I'm not optimistic he's going to average 10 or more/ game.  Here's hoping I'm wrong. 

Pretty confident you will be wrong. He has worked his ass off and will be a significant factor for us this season. Staff very high on him. Prepare to be surprised.

[brewcity77]

What's being ignored and what usage doesn't measure is Sean's a little guy- 5'10 listing is generous, who hasn't shown an ability to shoot from 3 well, finish at the rim, nor get to the line much.  He's a little guy with an ineffective jump shot and can't get his shot off in the paint. 

Unless his shot improves dramatically, which it might, this is why I'm not optimistic he's going to average 10 or more/ game.  Here's hoping I'm wrong. 

Inside the arc, Sean is over 50% inside the arc and shot 57.5% at the rim. Not elite, but certainly adequate. As far as from three, he's at 28.9% for his career, but has historically shot better against quality competition (31.7% vs Tier A+B per kenpom) and in league play (40.6%). Certainly better than you're making him out to be. As far as getting to the line, only O-Max had a higher FT Rate in Sean's freshman year and only Oso and Chase had higher rates in Sean's sophomore year, so I'm really not sure where you get that he doesn't get to the line much.

Listen, I get that your feelings don't like these takes, but facts are at odds with pretty much every thing you've said here.

[HutchwasClutch]

Inside the arc, Sean is over 50% inside the arc and shot 57.5% at the rim. Not elite, but certainly adequate. As far as from three, he's at 28.9% for his career, but has historically shot better against quality competition (31.7% vs Tier A+B per kenpom) and in league play (40.6%). Certainly better than you're making him out to be. As far as getting to the line, only O-Max had a higher FT Rate in Sean's freshman year and only Oso and Chase had higher rates in Sean's sophomore year, so I'm really not sure where you get that he doesn't get to the line much.

Listen, I get that your feelings don't like these takes, but facts are at odds with pretty much every thing you've said here.

Ok Brew.  I guess we'll have to wait until March 2026 because this difference of opinions won't be settled today. I know what I've seen and there's data backing my opinion too. It's far from a lock he'll become this double digit per game weapon. But if he does, fantastic.  It will likely mean more team success overall.

In the meantime, agree to disagree.  I didn't expect my original post would generate such vehement disagreement. I didn't think it was all that bold of a projection. 

[Johnny B]

Ramsey

Who is this and why are they called this. You've said this so many times im taking the bait

[The Sultan]

Who is this and why are they called this. You've said this so many times im taking the bait

It's Ramsey.

[BCHoopster]

I watched Sean shooting the ball this summer with my Grandson, just did look natural more of a set shot.  Before you jump on what I saw, he has a year and a half to improve his shooting

[Uncle Rico]

Who is this and why are they called this. You've said this so many times im taking the bait

Willie hates Ramsey.  Ask him

[Johnny B]

Ugh fml...