2025 NCAA Tourney Thread

[Uncle Rico]

If you're Nova wouldn't you want him in lieu of Willard? 

No.  Willard looks like a penis

[Billy Hoyle]

Who are your S16 picks?  Could BYU punk Bama? 

considering Bama's lack of defense, absolutely.

[Billy Hoyle]

If you're Nova wouldn't you want him in lieu of Willard? 

considering his legal issues that got him fired at Texas I doubt Nova would even entertain the possibility. Indiana's President told the AD Beard was a non-starter.

[wadesworld]

considering Bama's lack of defense, absolutely.

Alabama is 29th in D rating, BY is 72nd...

[Billy Hoyle]

Alabama is 29th in D rating, BY is 72nd...

163 for Bama per the rating below. The Bama defense has allowed at least 80 points in seven of their last 10 games, including at least 90 points in four and 100 twice, per to KenPom.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/defensive-efficiency

[wadesworld]

163 for Bama per the rating below. The Bama defense has allowed at least 80 points in seven of their last 10 games, including at least 90 points in four and 100 twice, per to KenPom.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/defensive-efficiency

Not sure what "per to KenPom" means, but here is  KenPom's ratings themselves.

https://kenpom.com/index.php

Like I said, Alabama 29th in D rating, BYU 72d...

If you want Torvik, it's Bama 27th in defensive efficiency while BYU is 56th.

[MU82]

The Athletic is touting a new "super-computer-based" rating metric called GPA -Grading Prospect Assessment - and Kon Knueppel, who is ranked 6th on the publication's "big board" of draft prospects, didn't score very well.

He can really shoot the ball, but he's a 6-foot-6 wing who plays like he's 6-foot-2. I think teams are hoping he's Austin Reaves, but I'm not sure he's Luke Kennard. GPA: 2.9 to 2.4

Ouch. He is a great college player. Maybe the computer will be wrong.

For context, Flagg was at 3.4 to 4.0, Queen was at 3.1 to 3.6 and Clayton was at 2.8 to 2.9.

[Shaka Shart]

The Athletic is touting a new "super-computer-based" rating metric called GPA -Grading Prospect Assessment - and Kon Knueppel, who is ranked 6th on the publication's "big board" of draft prospects, didn't score very well.

He can really shoot the ball, but he's a 6-foot-6 wing who plays like he's 6-foot-2. I think teams are hoping he's Austin Reaves, but I'm not sure he's Luke Kennard. GPA: 2.9 to 2.4

Ouch. He is a great college player. Maybe the computer will be wrong.

For context, Flagg was at 3.4 to 4.0, Queen was at 3.1 to 3.6 and Clayton was at 2.8 to 2.9.

So Clayton doesn't have the grades for Madison?

[wadesworld]

I'd take my chances with Kon.  He's very good and a lot tougher than I thought he'd be.

[JWags85]

I'd take my chances with Kon.  He's very good and a lot tougher than I thought he'd be.

I'm still not sold on him as a first round pick, much less a lottery pick.  He's not nearly as quick as Reeves and I don't see him dynamic enough as a 2 guard.  His stats and profile if he was a top 150 recruit who just finished his freshman year at Wake Forest doesn't get him a top 15 mock draft rating, I think his HS rank and being on a dominant Duke team is doing a lot of heavy lifting.

Honestly, projecting him as a pro reminds me a lot of Ellenson.  Very good player, but just doesn't seem to fit as dynamic/explosive enough as a scorer at the NBA level for his size/position.

[wadesworld]

I'm still not sold on him as a first round pick, much less a lottery pick.  He's not nearly as quick as Reeves and I don't see him dynamic enough as a 2 guard.  His stats and profile if he was a top 150 recruit who just finished his freshman year at Wake Forest doesn't get him a top 15 mock draft rating, I think his HS rank and being on a dominant Duke team is doing a lot of heavy lifting.

Honestly, projecting him as a pro reminds me a lot of Ellenson.  Very good player, but just doesn't seem to fit as dynamic/explosive enough as a scorer at the NBA level for his size/position.

I don't know.  A 6'7" freshman guard who averages 14, 4, 3, and a steal while shooting dang near 50/40/90?

Flagg goes out in the first round of the ACC Tournament and he goes for 28/5/8, then 17/4/3, then 18/8/3. 

He reminds me much more of a European guard than a soft American guard.  I think he's awesome and will be a long time contributor in the NBA.

[cheebs09]

No.  Willard looks like a penis

Hurting Cronin's chances too I imagine.

[JWags85]

I don't know.  A 6'7" freshman guard who averages 14, 4, 3, and a steal while shooting dang near 50/40/90?

Flagg goes out in the first round of the ACC Tournament and he goes for 28/5/8, then 17/4/3, then 18/8/3. 

He reminds me much more of a European guard than a soft American guard.  I think he's awesome and will be a long time contributor in the NBA.

Fair.  But I guess to my point, look no further than Proctor.  Also 6'6, actually shooting better than Kon on the year, only a year older (not like he's a 5th year senior), and also has the knock/question mark of explosiveness, playmaking, creating his shot at the next level.  But he wasn't a highly touted McD AA coming into Duke, and he's a late second round pick.

If I had to guess, they both spend stretches in the G League next year (like Reed Sheppard) but both are contributing on a team 5 years from now.

Amusingly, Ive seen Corey Kispert as a comp for Kon a couple places.  And that actually tracks on my opinion, he's been...fine, but putting up ok numbers on a bad team that scores a lot of points. 

[MU82]

As Jay Bilas noted in a recent article on ESPN.com https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/44411062/march-madness-2025-ncaa-men-tournament-sweet-16-final-four...

"And yes, the Sweet 16 is set, made up of teams from four conferences, all major conferences. There are seven SEC teams, four each from the Big Ten and Big 12, and one from the ACC. All four No. 1 seeds, three No. 2 seeds, two No. 3 seeds and three No. 4 seeds crowd the field.

But to all that discourse, I say: Nonsense. One data point does not make a trend.

We have had chalky NCAA tournaments before, well before NIL and the portal. Two years ago, Houston was in the American Athletic Conference, BYU was in the West Coast Conference and Arizona was in the Pac-12. Without recent expansion, we would be talking about 16 teams from seven conferences. If Maryland's Derik Queen had missed his buzzer shot, we'd be talking about eight, including a mid-major.

The last time Ole Miss was in the Sweet 16 was 2001, and the last time BYU was in the Sweet 16 was 2011. Drake, McNeese, New Mexico, Colorado State, Saint Mary's and Gonzaga all won first-round games. UC San Diego, a trendy upset pick, lost to Michigan by one possession, and Colorado State was that buzzer shot away from a Sweet 16 appearance."

So, in addition the MU Fan in CT's comment about COVID 5th years, larger P4 conferences play a role in this year's results.

Totally agree with Bilas. Any time something happens for a year, people freak out about the "trend." I'll believe this is the new normal if it happens another year or two.

I mean, Colorado State was within one great play by Queen (and, some say, an uncalled travel) of crashing the party.

[rocky_warrior]

Betting tonight, I've got BYU on the money line (because, Bama), and Florida covering (because, Willard drama).  Anyone else?

[Uncle Rico]

Betting tonight, I've got BYU on the money line (because, Bama), and Florida covering (because, Willard drama).  Anyone else?

No, I'm a Christian

[rocky_warrior]

No, I'm a Christian

Who are you praying for?

[MUEng92]

Wow, this game could be fun

[MuggsyB]

Wow, this game could be fun

Wow is correct!  First to 100?

[MUEng92]

120 pt pace for both

[MuggsyB]

I'm a bit concerned with Demin.  He can be super erratic. 

[MU82]

Mark Sears made a 15-footer from the baseline a couple minutes into the game - only the second mid-range basket so far in the tournament for Alabama.

[MUEng92]

I thought 3 point misses only bounced directly to the opponent when MU was on defense

[MuggsyB]

Seaes going medieval early.

[MUEng92]

That's a lot of blood