It’s Time to Think Bold

[brewcity77]

Perhaps but I think the more realistic scenario is that they win just enough to hover around the 'First 8 out' range winning like 17 or 18 games. Never really threatening to get it but just kind of hanging out there. Then what happens?

17-18 wins wouldn't have us in First 8 out. Might not even be good enough to get us a Crown invite (which we contractually have to accept before NIT).

[Vander Blue Man Group]

I sincerely hope we don't have to find out. I think Shaka's model working would be the best thing for college basketball. From a theory perspective, I think retention and getting to know the players in your program over years is a good thing. I want this to succeed and want our players to all grow and thrive.

That said, I think people forget how quickly it all turned south on Wojo. There was zero thought that Wojo would be dismissed when we got dumped from the Big East Tournament on March 10th. 8 days later, The Case Against came out. I don't think that alone made the decision, but I think its virality was part of why the Board moved their planned meeting up from March 22nd to March 19th and made it easier for Bill Scholl to explain why the time was right to dismiss Wojo. Roughly 24 hours after The Case Against came out, Wojo was fired.

If we have a losing season and Shaka's model is largely seen as the reason for it, we're going to end up with months of fan acrimony growing. The initial student calls of "Use the Portal" will get louder and likely more vitriolic as the season goes on. At that point, will Shaka go to the portal next summer, or will he double down on the 15 committed scholarships we have? I don't know.

But I guarantee the board will see and feel the pressure of a losing season. They know that our CBB investment brings back $3 to the university for every dollar spent (as Lovell said). They know that it is our most visible marketing arm. And they've seen what happens when you slide into DePaul territory. A second losing season in a row would be viewed as catastrophic.

In this century, around the league...

• UConn had losing seasons in both 2017 & 2018, then fired Kevin Ollie despite a national title 4 years earlier and NCAA berth and win 2 years earlier.
  
• Butler had losing seasons in both 2021 and 2022 and fired LaVall Jordan despite top-25 kenpom finishes in two of the three previous years.
  
• Georgetown had losing seasons in both 2016 and 2017 and fired JT3 despite 8 bids in the 10 prior years, then had losing seasons in 2022 and 2023 and fired Ewing despite a tourney bid the year before.
  
• Providence had losing seasons in 2010 and 2011 and fired Keno Davis in year 3. PC did let Tim Welsh return in 2007 (19 years ago) after losing seasons in 05 & 06.
  
• Villanova (Neptune), Xavier (Steele) and St. John's (Anderson) fired coaches that never had losing seasons. St. John's did let Norm Roberts return in 2010 (16 years ago) after losing seasons in 08 & 09.
  
• Creighton and Seton Hall haven't had consecutive losing seasons this century.
  
• ONLY DePaul has allowed multiple coaches to return after consecutive losing seasons.
  

.

To start, I don't think we will have B2B losing seasons.  I'm not convinced we will have a single losing season. 

Not really sure how relevant most of these comparisons are because, for the most part, additional context isn't included. 

For example, Neptune had no success after Wright's departure and the program was clearly trending downwards. 

Ewing was a trainwreck, notwithstanding what was clearly a lucky run in the conference tourney.

Aside from JT3, did any of these guys have the level of success Shaka has had in his first 4 years?  In my opinion, he's banked a lot of goodwill that these other examples have not.

Just a very surface-level comparison for me.

"So...do you really think the board would let Marquette become DePaul? Because that's what they would be on the verge of if they let a coach come back after consecutive losing campaigns."

The above is so hyperbolic I'm not sure what to even say...

[UWW2MU]

[Sarcasm alert for those who have difficulty decifering]

I'm so glad that we waited for at least 2 whole losses on the season before we lost our collective minds.  This team will clearly play exactly like they have against Indiana and Maryland all season long.  There's no way this team will grow and improve.  It's not like they're mostly a young and inexperienced group with only two seniors to help guide them, especially in the PG role...

Good god!  I think some of the people who get so caught up in the predictive metrics (count me among them) get to the point of worshipping the numbers and the early game "eye test" that they fail to just let the season play out. Most of all, let them grow and let it play dividends going forward.  We have to "get old" again!

But no, we seriously have people (non-Rico) making the case of getting rid of Shaka bc of his philosophy that SO FAR has netted us 5 straight seasons of NCAAT berths and 2 different BE conf championships.

We KNEW the team lost a lot this year and is super young... that's not ideal when you're trying to get old and stay old, but we also had several good years of staying old and knew this was coming.  Have some damn patience already and watch this team grow this year with OUR guys.  I absolutely hate the portal system and love that we get to see our guys grow up and improve.  Sorry some of you are entitled and spoiled and can't deal with a little bit of adversity. 


OK, sorry... end of incoherent, meandering rant!

[The Sultan]

But no, we seriously have people (non-Rico) making the case of getting rid of Shaka bc of his philosophy that SO FAR has netted us 5 straight seasons of NCAAT berths and 2 different BE conf championships.

We have one person who thinks we should be getting rid of Shaka. And he's a troll.

[GoldenEagles03]

17-18 wins wouldn't have us in First 8 out. Might not even be good enough to get us a Crown invite (which we contractually have to accept before NIT).

Ok well whatever that number is.

7-4 NonCon, 12-8 conference. 19-12, they miss the tournament. Not close to a losing season but still a sour tasting one.

What happens then?

[The Sultan]

Ok well whatever that number is.

7-4 NonCon, 12-8 conference. 19-12, they miss the tournament. Not close to a losing season but still a sour tasting one.

What happens then?

They'll play in the NIT or the Crown and it would be chalked up as a rebuilding year.

[GoldenEagles03]

They'll play in the NIT or the Crown and it would be chalked up as a rebuilding year.

So worse than finishing 12-19 and forcing a change of roster construction? I don't see Marquette firing him even after 2 years of 19-12 and missing the tournament. Is that crazy?

[The Sultan]

So worse than finishing 12-19 and forcing a change of roster construction? I don't see Marquette firing him even after 2 years of 19-12 and missing the tournament.

You are probably correct.

[GoldenEagles03]

You are probably correct.

Seems like we are in an awkward place as a program. Not a fun feeling!

[wadesworld]

Seems like we are in an awkward place as a program. Not a fun feeling!

Again, this stuff is absolutely crazy.  We're 14% of the way into the season.  We're hoping for a horrendous season so that we can either force our head coach, who has won 70% of his games here and been a 9 seed, 2 seed, 2 seed, and 7 seed after a decade of not winning a Tournament game, into completely changing how builds a roster or fire him.

There is nothing awkward about where we are as a program.  We're in great hands.

[DoctorV]

Seems like we are in an awkward place as a program. Not a fun feeling!

You're overthinking it a bit.

They can finish 19-12 or 18-13 or whatever and miss out on the dance, but see a lot of growth over the next few months where Shaka stays the course and course corrects with a bid next season.

Or, Shaka's us all and brings in one impact guy when an underachieving upperclassman moves along.
Or, next years frosh/RS class ends up with some additional BE type of talents.
Or a combo of the above where generally speaking Shaka stays the course.

That's the most likely scenario imo