Marquette Strength of Schedule (trying to take an objective look)

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

At the risk of opening an old can of worms, I was looking at MU's conf. and non-conf. SOS.

http://www.kenpom.com/rpi.php

(the spacing below gets a little off in this post, so it might be easier to just go to the website.)


Anyways, without doing a ton of statistical analysis, it appears like MU's non-conf. SOS is similar to the median of the top 20 teams (107), while MU's overall SOS is above average (24), because the Big East is so tough.

Now, I realize for entertainment purposes, fans would like to have some better teams come to the Bradley Center to play. However, from a basketball perspective, MU is coming in right about "normal" in these 2 categories (non-conf SOS and conf. SOS) for a top 20 program.

Obviously programs like UT and UM have tough schedules and are having great years, but for all of the conjecture and hand ringing that seems to go on with MU's schedule, I'd say MU did a pretty decent job selecting opponents.
 
Again, I understand the want for entertainment, but from a "basketball competition" perspective, MU did a pretty good job.

IF MU had created a tougher non-conf schedule (even a little tougher), certainly the overall SOS would certainly be in the top 15, which wouldn't be a bad thing, but also isn't really necessary. 

Anyways, I'm not trying to start the great debate again (we can live that in Sept./Oct. when the schedule comes out), but I'm trying to take an objective look at what MU did, and I would say that it's right in line with several other top programs that play in very tough conferences.

I know some people will still hate the MU schedule, and that's fine... but when you take a look at the numbers, MU is doing the same thing that a lot of top schools are doing... so it's hard for me to be too critical of what they have done this year.

Code: [Select]

                                                        SOS  1-50   51-100  101-200  201+     Non Conference    L10  RD/NT
Rnk Team                     Conf   W-L   RPI    SOS     Rk   W-L     W-L     W-L     W-L      W-L  RPI  SOS    W-L   W-L
  1 Tennessee                 SEC  24-2  .6890  .6079     2   8-1     4-1    10-0     2-0     13-1    1    5    9-1  11-2
  2 Memphis                  CUSA  26-1  .6685  .5769    17   6-1     6-0     9-0     5-0     14-1    2    9    9-1  11-0
  3 North Carolina            ACC  26-2  .6660  .5879     4   5-1    11-1     5-0     5-0     15-0    3   34    8-2  13-0
  4 Duke                      ACC  23-3  .6618  .5824     9   5-2     8-1     6-0     4-0     13-1   10   74    8-2   9-3
  5 Texas                     B12  22-4  .6581  .5978     3   9-3     3-1     5-0     5-0     12-2   13   21    9-1   8-3
  6 Xavier                    A10  24-4  .6509  .5782    16   7-1     6-3     8-0     3-0     12-3    8   13   10-0  10-3
  7 Georgetown                 BE  22-4  .6416  .5591    44   5-4     2-0    12-0     3-0     10-1   18  119    8-2   8-4
  8 Kansas                    B12  23-3  .6410  .5502    60   4-2     5-1    10-0     4-0     14-0    9  139    7-3   7-3
  9 UCLA                      P10  23-3  .6372  .5634    38   6-2     6-0     5-1     6-0     11-1   26  106    8-2  10-1
 10 Vanderbilt                SEC  23-4  .6361  .5544    52   2-2     6-2     9-0     6-0     15-0    7  105    7-3   6-4

 11 Drake                     MVC  22-3  .6340  .5484    64   4-2     6-1     7-0     5-0      8-1   14   98    8-2  10-2
 12 Connecticut                BE  21-6  .6281  .5795    14   6-5     3-0     6-1     6-0     11-2   20   67    9-1   7-5
 13 Wisconsin                 B10  23-4  .6277  .5569    49   3-4     1-0    15-0     4-0     10-2   27   65    8-2   9-2
 14 Louisville                 BE  22-6  .6263  .5786    15   7-4     2-2     8-0     5-0     10-3   29   22    9-1   9-4
 15 Michigan St.              B10  22-5  .6222  .5524    54   3-3     4-0    10-2     5-0     12-1    5   31    7-3   6-5
 16 Arizona                   P10  16-10 .6180  .6228     1   5-5     5-3     3-2     3-0      9-3    4    7    6-4   6-6
 17 Marquette                  BE  19-6  .6169  .5700    24   3-6     5-0     5-0     6-0      9-1   22  107    7-3   5-5
 18 Butler                   Horz  25-3  .6143  .5166   127   1-1     7-2     9-0     8-0     11-1   15   82    9-1  15-2
 19 Indiana                   B10  23-4  .6128  .5444    75   4-4     3-0     9-0     7-0     11-2   40   91    7-3   8-2
 20 Notre Dame                 BE  21-5  .6121  .5474    67   7-4     2-1     4-0     8-0     10-2  115  284    8-2   5-5

 21 Stanford                  P10  22-4  .6116  .5298    98   4-1     6-3     5-0     7-0     11-1   58  286    9-1   8-3
 22 Washington St.            P10  21-6  .6032  .5514    57   4-5     4-1     4-0     9-0     12-0   21  234    5-5  13-2
 23 Clemson                   ACC  18-7  .6026  .5667    29   2-5     5-2     6-0     5-0     11-2   51  175    6-4   6-5
 24 South Alabama              SB  20-5  .6014  .5225   111   1-2     2-1     8-2     9-0      6-3   37   25    8-2   8-5
 25 Miami FL                  ACC  18-7  .6008  .5644    36   3-2     5-3     4-2     6-0     12-1   30  182    5-5   7-5
 26 Pittsburgh                 BE  18-8  .6007  .5702    23   4-6     3-1     6-0     5-1     11-1   12   96    4-6   5-6
 27 Brigham Young             MWC  21-6  .5998  .5325    94   3-3     3-2     5-1    10-0     11-4   63  132    9-1   7-6
 28 Oklahoma                  B12  18-9  .5981  .5850     6   5-8     3-0     4-1     6-0     12-3   35   66    6-4   6-6
 29 Kent St.                  MAC  23-5  .5968  .5113   135   2-2     5-1     6-0    10-2     12-3   19   69    9-1   8-5
 30 Purdue                    B10  21-6  .5962  .5336    90   4-3     2-1     8-2     7-0      9-4  144  240    9-1   7-5

[reinko]

thanks for the analysis, well done.

[TallTitan34]

The reason Memphis has a tough OOC schedule is because their C-USA schedule is very very bad. 

[Mayor McCheese]

The reason Memphis has a tough OOC schedule is because their C-USA schedule is very very bad. 

however some teams in Conf USA (UAB, Houston) have RPIs better then most big conference schools

watched a clip of Calipari on First Take last week when they were talking about this, and he brought up the bias towards Conf USA... and that everyone thought the 2 point win @ UAB was a bad win by Memphis, however that UABs RPI is better then Wak Forest (who beat Duke that week as well)... all is on perspective, however a lot of Conf USA is bad, along with a lot of Big Ten is bad, a lot of ACC is bad, a lot of many conferences are bad.  Not sticking up for Conf USA as much as looking at it from both sides, and that I am pretty sick of people bad mouthing their conference schedule, and then let a loss from Duke to Wake Forest go because of the name... if Memphis would have lost to UAB, they would have dropped quite a few... where as Duke dropped 1, maybe 2?

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

The reason Memphis has a tough OOC schedule is because their C-USA schedule is very very bad. 

agreed...

They are in opposite "boat" as MU, (weak conf. SOS and strong non-conf. SOS) but have a very similar overall SOS.

I only called them out because UT and Memphis are the #1 and #2 RPI teams while having tough non-conf. schedules... which would inevitably lead to somebody stating that MU should schedule that way because it works for UT and Memphis.

However, MU and Memphis' overall SOS is similar.

[The Man in Gold]

Like Memphis though, the top of CUSA gets a pretty nice RPI bump just by have so many winnable games.  If 25% of your RPI is your winning %, than a CUSA schedule will help that portion of the math for the better teams more so than a Wake.  Also compared to a lot of smaller schools, CUSA teams don't have a terrible W-L record.  You'd expect them to win their OOC games against the smaller schools and even most mid-majors, but there is a clear gap between them and the major conferences.

RPI: 25% your Winning%, 50% your Opp W%, 25% Opponents Opp W%

In the end if Wake played UAB on a neutral floor, who would you take?

[Mayor McCheese]

Like Memphis though, the top of CUSA gets a pretty nice RPI bump just by have so many winnable games.  If 25% of your RPI is your winning %, than a CUSA schedule will help that portion of the math for the better teams more so than a Wake.  Also compared to a lot of smaller schools, CUSA teams don't have a terrible W-L record.  You'd expect them to win their OOC games against the smaller schools and even most mid-majors, but there is a clear gap between them and the major conferences.

RPI: 25% your Winning%, 50% your Opp W%, 25% Opponents Opp W%

In the end if Wake played UAB on a neutral floor, who would you take?

UAB.

[🏀]

Like Memphis though, the top of CUSA gets a pretty nice RPI bump just by have so many winnable games.  If 25% of your RPI is your winning %, than a CUSA schedule will help that portion of the math for the better teams more so than a Wake.  Also compared to a lot of smaller schools, CUSA teams don't have a terrible W-L record.  You'd expect them to win their OOC games against the smaller schools and even most mid-majors, but there is a clear gap between them and the major conferences.

RPI: 25% your Winning%, 50% your Opp W%, 25% Opponents Opp W%

In the end if Wake played UAB on a neutral floor, who would you take?

UAB.