Fun Ken Pom facts and the NCAA tournament

[Elonsmusk]

Some very interesting data here.  One notable that stood out to me:  17 of the last 20 National Champions finished in the Top 6 of Ken Pom.  This year that means:  UCONN, Houston, Purdue, Auburn, Iowa State, Arizona.

https://www.on3.com/news/ncaa-tournament-bracket-pools-here-is-some-help/

[muwarrior69]

Some very interesting data here.  One notable that stood out to me:  17 of the last 20 National Champions finished in the Top 6 of Ken Pom.  This year that means:  UCONN, Houston, Purdue, Auburn, Iowa State, Arizona.

https://www.on3.com/news/ncaa-tournament-bracket-pools-here-is-some-help/

So we'll be one of the 4 in the last 21.

[1SE]

Some very interesting data here.  One notable that stood out to me:  17 of the last 20 National Champions finished in the Top 6 of Ken Pom.  This year that means:  UCONN, Houston, Purdue, Auburn, Iowa State, Arizona.

https://www.on3.com/news/ncaa-tournament-bracket-pools-here-is-some-help/

And haven't (almost) all of them been t-20 O and D? Narrows it to UCONN, UH, AZ, Auburn

[wadesworld]

Some very interesting data here.  One notable that stood out to me:  17 of the last 20 National Champions finished in the Top 6 of Ken Pom.  This year that means:  UCONN, Houston, Purdue, Auburn, Iowa State, Arizona.

https://www.on3.com/news/ncaa-tournament-bracket-pools-here-is-some-help/

Not really what that means. If MU wins 6 straight, mostly against great competition, they could finish in the top 6 in KenPom.

[Uncle Rico]

Not really what that means. If MU wins 6 straight, mostly against great competition, they could finish in the top 6 in KenPom.

Correct

[CountryRoads]

Not really what that means. If MU wins 6 straight, mostly against great competition, they could finish in the top 6 in KenPom.

Thought the same but checked the article and it said entering the tournament. Not sure if that’s still true or if the article was wrong.

[Jay Bee]

Thought the same but checked the article and it said entering the tournament. Not sure if that’s still true or if the article was wrong.

It’s true. 

For me, I almost always do a final check on my bracket to see that my champ is in the top 25/25 adj oe/de and we’re there.

Of course, there’s an argument we’re not that team right now :/

[The Lens]

+ Eighteen of the past 20 champions (exceptions were UConn in 2014 and Baylor in 2021) entered the tournament ranked in the top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Who fits that criteria this season?

Thirteen teams: Houston, UCLA, Alabama, UConn, Texas, Purdue, Kansas, Saint Mary’s, Creighton, Memphis, Maryland, Texas A&M and FAU.

Why aren't we on this list?

[genious expert]

Why aren't we on this list?

The article is from last year.

[The Lens]

The article is from last year.

I think I feel stupider now

[wadesworld]

Thought the same but checked the article and it said entering the tournament. Not sure if that’s still true or if the article was wrong.

Interesting. My apologies. That is, indeed, a surprising fact.

Let’s buck the trend and be number 4 then.

[MDMU04]

Since the article is from last year, here's an update for the criteria and the teams that fit this year:

TOP 40 IN BOTH OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY (18/20):
UConn         Houston
Purdue         Marquette
Duke         North Carolina
Arizona         Tennessee
Auburn         Nebraska
Creighton      Nevada

TOP SEVEN IN EITHER OFFENSIVE OR DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY (9/10):
UConn         Duke
Alabama      Iowa State
Illinois         Houston
Purdue         Auburn
Kentucky      North Carolina
Baylor         Virginia
Tennessee

TOP SIX OVERALL POMEROY RATING (17/20):
UConn         Auburn
Houston      Iowa State
Purdue         Arizona

MATCH ALL 3 CATEGORIES:
UConn         Purdue
Houston              Auburn

[SaveOD238]

MATCH ALL 3 CATEGORIES:
UConn         Purdue
Houston              Auburn

A question I heard a few weeks ago was "Uconn/Purdue/Houston or the field?"  I felt this way then, and I still do now: I would take the top 3.  Probably more so than in any other year.

[cheebs09]

Yeah, honestly, you could give me just Houston/UCONN and I'd feel the same.

[MDMU04]

Auburn is a really strange team to me.  Their efficiency profile says they are an absolute wagon.  They destroyed everyone they played in Q2-Q4, going 24-0 with an average margin of victory of just over 22 points.

HOWEVA they're a pretty dismal 3-7 against Q1 teams, with two of those wins coming in the last 72 hours. Their only other Q1 win was at home against Alabama on 2/7.

I honestly don't know what to make of them. The computers love them because they consistently beat teams by a lot. And I think they got a 4 seed because they really haven't beaten anyone.

[Elonsmusk]

A question I heard a few weeks ago was "Uconn/Purdue/Houston or the field?"  I felt this way then, and I still do now: I would take the top 3.  Probably more so than in any other year.

Another fun fact:  The Number 1 overall Ken Pom team going into the tournaments has won the Championship just 3 times in 21 years. 

[Elonsmusk]

Fun bet stack on Top 7:

Got Auburn 30 to 1 on March 13th, and ISU at 20 to 1 last night.  Wagered these amounts:

Uconn - $100 at 4/1 = $400
Purdue - $45 at 7/1 = $315
Houston - $55 at 6/1 = $330
ISU - $90 at 20/1 = $1800
Auburn - $75 at 30/1 = $2250
Arizona - $35 at 10/1 = $350
TN - $15 at 12/1 = $180

Total of $415 wagered - worst case TN wins (which I doubt happens) and I lose $230, second worst case Purdue wins, and I lose $100, Houston wins it and lose $95.

Fliers on Auburn and ISU would net $1800 or $1400.  UCONN is breakeven.

[MU82]

Fun bet stack on Top 7:

Got Auburn 30 to 1 on March 13th, and ISU at 20 to 1 last night.  Wagered these amounts:

Uconn - $100 at 4/1 = $400
Purdue - $45 at 7/1 = $315
Houston - $55 at 6/1 = $330
ISU - $90 at 20/1 = $1800
Auburn - $75 at 30/1 = $2250
Arizona - $35 at 10/1 = $350
TN - $15 at 12/1 = $180

Total of $415 wagered - worst case TN wins (which I doubt happens) and I lose $230, second worst case Purdue wins, and I lose $100, Houston wins it and lose $95.

Fliers on Auburn and ISU would net $1800 or $1400.  UCONN is breakeven.

Sorry ... my one NCAAT bet was $100 to win it all on Marquette (+2500).

I just hope Shaka and the guys bother showing up after they read this thread.

[MDMU04]

Sorry ... my one NCAAT was $100 to win it all on Marquette (+2500).

I just hope Shaka and the guys bother showing up after they read this thread.

Me and a buddy have the "Doc Rivers parlay" going.  $20 on the Bucks to win NBA title and MU to win NCAA, +20700.

[brewcity77]

A question I heard a few weeks ago was "Uconn/Purdue/Houston or the field?"  I felt this way then, and I still do now: I would take the top 3.  Probably more so than in any other year.

2021 I was completely on Gonzaga/Baylor vs the field. That was more clear-cut, IMO.

This year is interesting. UConn looks great but has a brutal bracket. FAU/Auburn/ISU or Illinois is brutal. Houston is banged up and it showed against the Cyclones. Purdue is the one everyone tends to doubt, but I think they're the most likely to make the Final Four.

[Jay Bee]

I just can’t see Foster Loyer being able to physically hold up a trophy

[StillAWarrior]

I just can’t see Foster Loyer being able to physically hold up a trophy

But as long as his cousin Fletcher does, the Purdue fans will be happy.

Here's what I think of every time I see Loyer:

[Jay Bee]

But as long as his cousin Fletcher does, the Purdue fans will be happy.

Here's what I think of every time I see Loyer:

Ack, thanks

[jesmu84]

https://fansided.com/posts/march-madness-kenpom-stats-4-teams-win-national-championship

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Some very interesting data here.  One notable that stood out to me:  17 of the last 20 National Champions finished in the Top 6 of Ken Pom.  This year that means:  UCONN, Houston, Purdue, Auburn, Iowa State, Arizona.

https://www.on3.com/news/ncaa-tournament-bracket-pools-here-is-some-help/

Another Fun Fact. All three teams who bucked this trend either were in the Big East at the time are in the Big East currently: 2003 Syracuse, 2011 UConn, 2014 UConn

[MU82]

Another Fun Fact. All three teams who bucked this trend either were in the Big East at the time are in the Big East currently: 2003 Syracuse, 2011 UConn, 2014 UConn

Not only that, but I just read in the Washington Post that since Pomeroy's data began in 2002, two-thirds two-thirds of the pre-tournament #1 teams (14 of 21) failed to even reach the Final Four.