[Cracked Sidewalks] Bracketology: Breaking Down the Top-16

[brewcity77]

Last year, the Selection Committee largely ignored the results of the week between the Super Bowl and the Top-16 Reveal, so we're going with our expected Top-16 Reveal today. We break it down line-by-line and look at which teams are close but likely won't quite be there come Saturday.

And while we didn't have room for this in the article, there were a ton of potential storylines that came out of this week's bracket. Fans always postulate on the Selection Committee "designing" storylines for the field, but when there are 68 teams that have to be placed by seeding rules, they are unavoidable. Here are some favorite first weekend storylines from each region this week:

• East: UConn is the obvious 1-seed, but it would make headlines if the defending champs met Tom Izzo and Michigan State in Round 2. In the second game of an NCAA weekend (R32, Elite 8, NC Game) Izzo is a staggering 24-7 in his career, showing what a tough challenge Sparty is with short preparation time.
  
• West: FAU's rise to prominence started with the upset of Tennessee in last year's Sweet 16. While we try to avoid first weekend rematches, it was a pain keeping Mountain West teams apart and both Kentucky and Texas could only go to one region, so it had to happen.
  
• South: Speaking of Kentucky, the most played game in NCAA Tournament history is Marquette vs Kentucky, which is a second round possibility here. The two teams have met 10 times in the Tournament, with Marquette holding a 6-4 advantage while having won the last 3 meetings.
  
• Midwest: The Indianapolis pod here is awesome. Purdue potentially opens with Merrimack, the team that beat FDU in the NEC Title game last year but was ineligible for March play. After that, they either get Virginia, the only other team to lose as a 1 to a 16-seed, or Indiana State, which would set up an incredibly local matchup. But don't worry about the Sycamores having a travel advantage, according to the NCAA calculator, Purdue's campus is 12 miles closer (66 to 78 miles) to the Indianapolis site.

Breaking Down the Top-16

[muwarrior69]

I confess I am not a stat guy and just route for my Warriors, but what is a protected seed?

[brewcity77]

I confess I am not a stat guy and just route for my Warriors, but what is a protected seed?

The Top-16 teams are considered protected seeds. Location placement is based on their position in the S-Curve ranking, with the highest positions being given geographic preference. Every year, the Tourney has 8 first round sites. This year, the sites are:

March 21/23: Charlotte, Omaha, Pittsburgh, Salt Lake City
March 22/24: Brooklyn, Indianapolis, Memphis, Spokane

Each site gets 2 protected seeds. Geographically, no team in the 4-team pod should have a significant geographic advantage over the protected seed. So hypothetically, Marquette should not be in line to play Indiana State in Indianapolis. Though as anyone who remembers us playing Murray State in Nashville can attest, this isn't a hard and fast rule. They try to keep to it in the first round, but the second round is not as firm in that regard.

Then you start at the top and assign sites.

1) Purdue - Indianapolis (closest)
2) UConn - Brooklyn (closest)
3) Houston - Memphis (closest)
4) Arizona - Salt Lake City (closest)
5) Kansas - Omaha (closest)
6) North Carolina - Charlotte (closest)
7) Marquette - Indianapolis (closest, and with Purdue, Indy is now closed)
8) Tennessee - Charlotte (closest, even though Memphis is in their state, and with UNC, Charlotte is now closed))
9) Iowa State - Omaha (closest, and with Kansas, Omaha is now closed)
10) Baylor - Memphis (closest, and with Houston, Memphis is now closed)
11) Alabama - Pittsburgh (4th closest, but Memphis, Charlotte, and Indy are closed)
12) Duke - Pittsburgh (2nd closest, but Charlotte is closed, and with Alabama, Pittsburgh is also closed)
13) Wisconsin - Brooklyn (6th closest, but all closer sites are closed, and with UConn, Brooklyn is also now closed)
14) Auburn - Salt Lake City (7th closest, but all closer sites are closed, and with Arizona, SLC is also now closed)
15) Clemson - Spokane (Furthest, but it's all that's left)
16) South Carolina - Spokane (Furthest, but it's all that's left)

The other thing that comes into play this year is BYU. They refuse to play on Sunday, so they can only go to Charlotte, Omaha, Pittsburgh, or Salt Lake City, and have to be in the West or East regional. My bracketology group uses the acronym WE-COPS to remember where you can place BYU, but you have to bear in mind the "S" is for the site closest to them, so SLC instead of Spokane. The drawback is that Auburn gets a virtual second round road game, but sometimes those are the breaks.

Hope that helps!

[1SE]

The Top-16 teams are considered protected seeds. Location placement is based on their position in the S-Curve ranking, with the highest positions being given geographic preference. Every year, the Tourney has 8 first round sites. This year, the sites are:

March 21/23: Charlotte, Omaha, Pittsburgh, Salt Lake City
March 22/24: Brooklyn, Indianapolis, Memphis, Spokane

Each site gets 2 protected seeds. Geographically, no team in the 4-team pod should have a significant geographic advantage over the protected seed. So hypothetically, Marquette should not be in line to play Indiana State in Indianapolis. Though as anyone who remembers us playing Murray State in Nashville can attest, this isn't a hard and fast rule. They try to keep to it in the first round, but the second round is not as firm in that regard.

Then you start at the top and assign sites.

1) Purdue - Indianapolis (closest)
2) UConn - Brooklyn (closest)
3) Houston - Memphis (closest)
4) Arizona - Salt Lake City (closest)
5) Kansas - Omaha (closest)
6) North Carolina - Charlotte (closest)
7) Marquette - Indianapolis (closest, and with Purdue, Indy is now closed)
8) Tennessee - Charlotte (closest, even though Memphis is in their state, and with UNC, Charlotte is now closed))
9) Iowa State - Omaha (closest, and with Kansas, Omaha is now closed)
10) Baylor - Memphis (closest, and with Houston, Memphis is now closed)
11) Alabama - Pittsburgh (4th closest, but Memphis, Charlotte, and Indy are closed)
12) Duke - Pittsburgh (2nd closest, but Charlotte is closed, and with Alabama, Pittsburgh is also closed)
13) Wisconsin - Brooklyn (6th closest, but all closer sites are closed, and with UConn, Brooklyn is also now closed)
14) Auburn - Salt Lake City (7th closest, but all closer sites are closed, and with Arizona, SLC is also now closed)
15) Clemson - Spokane (Furthest, but it's all that's left)
16) South Carolina - Spokane (Furthest, but it's all that's left)

The other thing that comes into play this year is BYU. They refuse to play on Sunday, so they can only go to Charlotte, Omaha, Pittsburgh, or Salt Lake City, and have to be in the West or East regional. My bracketology group uses the acronym WE-COPS to remember where you can place BYU, but you have to bear in mind the "S" is for the site closest to them, so SLC instead of Spokane. The drawback is that Auburn gets a virtual second round road game, but sometimes those are the breaks.

Hope that helps!

Interesting but makes sense for BYU - is that why FF weekend is Sat/Mon instead of Fri/Sun?

[brewcity77]

Interesting but makes sense for BYU - is that why FF weekend is Sat/Mon instead of Fri/Sun?

Not sure if that's the reason for it, but it makes sense. BYU is always a pain when it comes to bracketing for this reason, and even worse when you not only have to place them based on those dates but also have to avoid 8 other Big 12 teams.

[cheebs09]

I think the NCAA likes championships on Mondays. The football championship is a Monday. Also, the FF can be a full day event rather than squeezing two games in on Friday night.

[PGsHeroes32]

I think the NCAA likes championships on Mondays. The football championship is a Monday. Also, the FF can be a full day event rather than squeezing two games in on Friday night.

Yeah Monday night national title games are perfect for both sports.

And like you said, the practicality is Saturday FF for bball. Absolute no brainer

[StillAWarrior]

The Top-16 teams are considered protected seeds. Location placement is based on their position in the S-Curve ranking, with the highest positions being given geographic preference. Every year, the Tourney has 8 first round sites. This year, the sites are:

****

Hope that helps!

Thanks for this, Brew. Question: are teams assigned to the nearest spot geographically, or do they have some opportunity to express preferences? The most obvious example in what you provided is Tennessee. If the Vols wanted, could they indicate that they would rather be in Memphis? Once you're jumping on an airplane, the geography gets a little less important and other factors might come into play.

[MU82]

brewski -

Lexington is about 100 miles closer to Indianapolis than Milwaukee is, and Kentucky fans travel.

I know we "always" beat Kentucky, but I wouldn't love that matchup in Indy ... and I wonder why a protected seed would be relatively unprotected like that.

[brewcity77]

Thanks for this, Brew. Question: are teams assigned to the nearest spot geographically, or do they have some opportunity to express preferences? The most obvious example in what you provided is Tennessee. If the Vols wanted, could they indicate that they would rather be in Memphis? Once you're jumping on an airplane, the geography gets a little less important and other factors might come into play.

The #1 overall seed gets to select their spot. So if Tennessee was #1, they would get to pick. After that, the guideline is that everyone is assigned by geographic preference. As it stands, Purdue is the only team who's preference would factor in.

[muwarrior69]

Interesting but makes sense for BYU - is that why FF weekend is Sat/Mon instead of Fri/Sun?

Does the NCAA have to accommodate BYU? It is nice that they do, however.

[1SE]

I think the NCAA likes championships on Mondays. The football championship is a Monday. Also, the FF can be a full day event rather than squeezing two games in on Friday night.

I mean presumably the logic would be the same there as well... I'd have to imagine there are some other religious schools that don't like playing on Sundays? Liberty?

[Dr. Blackheart]

Does the NCAA have to accommodate BYU? It is nice that they do, however.

Yes. And it's affected MU like in Louisville under Buzz.  It wasn't so much the BYU game but it meant MU had to play Murray State right after the Kentucky game.

Then there was Utah State versus MU in Boise. MU versus South Carolina in Greenville after the game was moved over the bathroom issue. I'd even argue MU in Columbus over a closer MSU. The NCAA hates MU.

[muwarrior69]

Yes. And it's affected MU like in Louisville under Buzz.  It wasn't so much the BYU game but it meant MU had to play Murray State right after the Kentucky game.

Then there was Utah State versus MU in Boise. MU versus South Carolina in Greenville after the game was moved over the bathroom issue. I'd even argue MU in Columbus over a closer MSU. The NCAA hates MU.

Then why don't we say we won't play on Sunday? Doesn't the Elite 8 this year play on Easter Sunday.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Then why don't we say we won't play on Sunday?

Because Catholics and Mormons have different practices regarding the Sabbath.

[BrewCity83]

Then why don't we say we won't play on Sunday? Doesn't the Elite 8 this year play on Easter Sunday.

Only half of it.  Two E8 games Saturday, two on Sunday.

[Sturgeon General Warrior]

Thanks for sharing Brew. These bracketology posts are great. One thing jumped out at me in the article: "Committee's historic valuing of Q1 wins over Q2+3 losses." Would this imply for mid-tier teams that winning  conference games on the road is more valuable than avoiding losing at home? A couple of NET 50s teams splitting road wins gets them each a Q1 W and Q2 L instead of a Q1 L and Q2 W. A nice boost for teams in conferences with poor home court advantage.

[cheebs09]

Because Catholics and Mormons have different practices regarding the Sabbath.

Plus, I doubt that we'd be willing to pigeon hole ourselves into a potentially worse path.

[brewcity77]

Thanks for sharing Brew. These bracketology posts are great. One thing jumped out at me in the article: "Committee's historic valuing of Q1 wins over Q2+3 losses." Would this imply for mid-tier teams that winning  conference games on the road is more valuable than avoiding losing at home? A couple of NET 50s teams splitting road wins gets them each a Q1 W and Q2 L instead of a Q1 L and Q2 W. A nice boost for teams in conferences with poor home court advantage.

If you can control that, I would say so. The Selection Committee always seems to look at the factors of "who did you beat and where did you beat them" before factoring in the losses. That's why it's so tough for mid-majors on the bubble. A 19-13 Big East team will likely have 4-6 Q1 wins simply by the nature of their schedule and all of their losses might be Q1+2, while a 25-8 mid-major has a great record, but if they are 2-5 in Q1 and have 2-3 losses outside the first two quadrants, they'll be judged far more harshly. The system is built to help out the big league programs.

[muwarrior69]

Plus, I doubt that we'd be willing to pigeon hole ourselves into a potentially worse path.

According to Dr. B we have been "pigeon holed" into a worse path regardless, which is why I asked. I have no objection to playing on Sundays.

[Its DJOver]

According to Dr. B we have been "pigeon holed" into a worse path regardless, which is why I asked. I have no objection to playing on Sundays.

Just how the draw works.  Sometimes it's in your favor, sometimes not.  Shouldn't ever really be used as an excuse IMO.

[brewcity77]

brewski -

Lexington is about 100 miles closer to Indianapolis than Milwaukee is, and Kentucky fans travel.

I know we "always" beat Kentucky, but I wouldn't love that matchup in Indy ... and I wonder why a protected seed would be relatively unprotected like that.

The second game isn't as protected as the first, and Kentucky effectively had to go to Marquette's pod. They couldn't go to the West because they play Tennessee (the 2-seed there) twice and they couldn't go East (Kansas) or Midwest (North Carolina) because they try to avoid placing regular season rematches in the first weekend. That one is a little more flexible, but Texas also had to go to the Midwest region because Iowa State is the only Big 12 team in the bottom half of brackets they didn't play 2+ times while Colorado State couldn't be seeded across from Nevada as both are in the Mountain West. There simply weren't a lot of good options, which is why bracketing is always full of storylines. You can't avoid them if you try.

[MU82]

Thanks for the response, brew.