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Author Topic: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread  (Read 210831 times)

HowardsWorld

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2375 on: February 23, 2024, 10:56:59 AM »
Zona will not be a #1.  I'm more concerned with Tennessee.

Tennessee has an absolute brutal schedule to end the year so it’s possible they will end up with it. The play vs Auburn, at Alabama , at South Carolina and home to Kentucky. Every team there is top 20. They go 4-0 they clinch the 1.

Hards Alumni

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2376 on: February 23, 2024, 11:31:08 AM »
Sorry, but I don't get the fascination with being a 1 seed for the tournament - which is highly, highly unlikely to happen. Yes, being a 1 seed is better than being a 16. But, any seeding from 1 - 4 is a strong seed and gives you a manageable first round game. After the first round, any team you play is a good team or a team on a hot streak and you have to be on your A game.  Beating Creighton in Omaha is a lot harder than beating them in Milwaukee, and Creighton has started to play really well lately. Beating UConn anywhere is a tall order.  If MU is a 2 seed, it's ok. If they are a 3 seed, that's not the end of the world either. I am really more concerned about which region they are in and who else is there. I would rather see the team placed in a region headed by Purdue than a region with Houston.


1SE

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2377 on: February 23, 2024, 11:44:35 AM »
Arizona isn't they're because "the computers love them". They are there because they've amassed 7 Q1 wins,  4th most this season.  Including two wins away from home at projected 3 seeds. Those are two of the best wins any team has this season. They have an ugly Q3 loss which is why they are vulnerable and the other 1 seeds aren't.  North Carolina and Kansas, two of the 2 seeds also have Q3 losses.

 I mean, the computers do love them - that's pretty objective - 3rd in NET, 5 in Torvik, 4 in Kenpom. By contrast we're 13, 14, 13.

And the Q1 win fetish - you're telling me we'd have a stronger profile if we'd won @SH and @Prov but lost @Georgetown and vs SH? Because that's basically the difference in our profiles. I mean if that's why they're "there" - I guess...

As we've already discussed - their top wins - @Duke, vs UW, N Alabama are certainly no better, and arguably worse than ours - @ILL, vs. CU, N KU

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1SE

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2378 on: February 23, 2024, 11:49:24 AM »
Tennessee has an absolute brutal schedule to end the year so it’s possible they will end up with it. The play vs Auburn, at Alabama , at South Carolina and home to Kentucky. Every team there is top 20. They go 4-0 they clinch the 1.

Yeah - it's a tough road but they're probably the only outsider whose fate is completely in their own hands.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2379 on: February 23, 2024, 01:05:19 PM »
I mean, the computers do love them - that's pretty objective - 3rd in NET, 5 in Torvik, 4 in Kenpom. By contrast we're 13, 14, 13.

And the Q1 win fetish - you're telling me we'd have a stronger profile if we'd won @SH and @Prov but lost @Georgetown and vs SH? Because that's basically the difference in our profiles. I mean if that's why they're "there" - I guess...

As we've already discussed - their top wins - @Duke, vs UW, N Alabama are certainly no better, and arguably worse than ours - @ILL, vs. CU, N KU

My gripe is that you seem to imply that Arizona hasn't beaten anyone when they are alone in fourth in the country in Q1 wins, behind only the three other 1 seeds. They are also 11th in NET Non-Con SOS and 2nd in RPI SOS. KenPom has them as 12th best SOS. In the same rankings, we're 19, 25, and 15. They've played a tough schedule and did very well. I think that stems from you thinking Alabama and Duke are overrated when they are just as good of teams as Kansas and Illinois. Creighton is better than Wisconsin but we just got by them and they pounded the everliving snot out of the Badgers, that matters. And it's not like they got these numbers by beating up on a bunch of Q4 teams. The've only played 3 Q4 games all season and if UT-Arlington moves up 1 spot it will only be 2 Q4 games. By contrast, we've played 7 Q4 games this season (thanks DePaul/Georgetown).

The Big East is better than the PAC 12, but our conference schedule so far may not be as strong as you might think compared to Zona's. The Big East is better because we have three elite teams at the top whereas the PAC 12 only has Zona. And because we're one of those elite teams, we only got 4 games against elite teams in conference and we've only played 2 of them so far. We squeaked by in one and got taken behind the woodshed in the other. We'll see how the last two go. Otherwise, us beating the likes of Villanova, St. John's, Butler, and Seton Hall six times is not really any better than Zona beating the likes of Colorado, Utah, and Oregon five times. Throw in their wins against UCLA, USC, and Cal being much better than beating Georgetown and DePaul, you can see how the conference schedules so far are more equal than you might think.

Zona has played as tough of a schedule as us so far and has done slightly better than we have. The difference however is that when it is all said and done, we will have played the much tougher schedule. Not including the BET, we have 2 Q1A, 1 Q1B, and 2 Q2B games remaining. Arizona has 4 Q2B and 1 Q3 game remaining. They can only hurt their resume going forward whereas we have 3 opportunities to improve ours. The path is there.
TAMU

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Viper

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2380 on: February 23, 2024, 01:30:56 PM »
My still such sensitive feelings about Wojo. No, it sure doesn’t make the top 50 reasons of what incompetence he showed here as coach.  Nor was that even remotely my point of course. 

This is a decent player who could have contributed if Wojo wouldn’t have been such an idiot.  And his parting remarks from MU pointed out only his teammates as a positive from the season.  Glaring omission about his coach.

But please take an off hand comment and completely overreact.
trust me…overreaction to a post is the name of the game in these parts

1SE

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2381 on: February 23, 2024, 01:57:35 PM »
My gripe is that you seem to imply that Arizona hasn't beaten anyone when they are alone in fourth in the country in Q1 wins, behind only the three other 1 seeds. They are also 11th in NET Non-Con SOS and 2nd in RPI SOS. KenPom has them as 12th best SOS. In the same rankings, we're 19, 25, and 15. They've played a tough schedule and did very well. I think that stems from you thinking Alabama and Duke are overrated when they are just as good of teams as Kansas and Illinois. Creighton is better than Wisconsin but we just got by them and they pounded the everliving snot out of the Badgers, that matters. And it's not like they got these numbers by beating up on a bunch of Q4 teams. The've only played 3 Q4 games all season and if UT-Arlington moves up 1 spot it will only be 2 Q4 games. By contrast, we've played 7 Q4 games this season (thanks DePaul/Georgetown).

The Big East is better than the PAC 12, but our conference schedule so far may not be as strong as you might think compared to Zona's. The Big East is better because we have three elite teams at the top whereas the PAC 12 only has Zona. And because we're one of those elite teams, we only got 4 games against elite teams in conference and we've only played 2 of them so far. We squeaked by in one and got taken behind the woodshed in the other. We'll see how the last two go. Otherwise, us beating the likes of Villanova, St. John's, Butler, and Seton Hall six times is not really any better than Zona beating the likes of Colorado, Utah, and Oregon five times. Throw in their wins against UCLA, USC, and Cal being much better than beating Georgetown and DePaul, you can see how the conference schedules so far are more equal than you might think.

Zona has played as tough of a schedule as us so far and has done slightly better than we have. The difference however is that when it is all said and done, we will have played the much tougher schedule. Not including the BET, we have 2 Q1A, 1 Q1B, and 2 Q2B games remaining. Arizona has 4 Q2B and 1 Q3 game remaining. They can only hurt their resume going forward whereas we have 3 opportunities to improve ours. The path is there.

And they've also lost to Oregon state. That would be like us losing to Georgetown. And Stanford.

My point is our and their winning profiles are pretty similar - im not saying they dont have good wins - BUT WE DO TOO. Where we differ most obviously is that they have one REALLY BAD and one pretty bad loss. Whereas our worst loss mind of but not really that bad loss. But yet they are unanimously ahead of us in brackets and computers.

A Q3 loss should DQ you as a 1 seed.
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Its DJOver

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2382 on: February 23, 2024, 02:09:07 PM »
A Q3 loss should DQ you as a 1 seed.

What a ridiculous idea.
I'll stick with my opinion on Gold.  He'll be in foul trouble within the first eight minutes.

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2383 on: February 23, 2024, 05:21:47 PM »
And they've also lost to Oregon state. That would be like us losing to Georgetown. And Stanford.

My point is our and their winning profiles are pretty similar - im not saying they dont have good wins - BUT WE DO TOO. Where we differ most obviously is that they have one REALLY BAD and one pretty bad loss. Whereas our worst loss mind of but not really that bad loss. But yet they are unanimously ahead of us in brackets and computers.

A Q3 loss should DQ you as a 1 seed.

No one's forgetting that they lost to Oregon State and Stanford. And no one's arguing that we don't have good wins. The argument that is universally accepted by all but Marquette fans is that despite that, Arizona still has a better overall resume and while the gap isn't large, it is clear. I think you overestimate how much value the committee places on bad losses. They matter, but the committee has always cared more about who you beat, where you beat them, and how you beat them.

Teams don't get love from the computers for no reason. I understand those who don't like teams getting rewarded for obliterating a bunch of Q4 opponents, I think that's a flaw too. That's not what's happening with Arizona. They are decimating quality teams: Alabama (N) by 13, Wisconsin (H) by 25, Colorado (A/H) by 20 and 47, Utah (H) by 19. Compare that to us we have Kansas (N) by 14, Villanova (H) by 13, Texas (H w/o their leading scorer) by 21, Seton Hall (H w/o their leading scorer) by 18. Being able to not just beat but dominate good teams matters.

Good news is, they're in striking distance and they only have Q2B and Q3 games left. Win our Q1 games and we will pass them.
TAMU

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WhiteTrash

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2384 on: February 23, 2024, 05:24:36 PM »
What a ridiculous idea.
I agree.

But I'm sure we all agree a Q4 loss should relegate you to DII. Right?

HowardsWorld

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2385 on: February 23, 2024, 05:29:20 PM »
No one's forgetting that they lost to Oregon State and Stanford. And no one's arguing that we don't have good wins. The argument that is universally accepted by all but Marquette fans is that despite that, Arizona still has a better overall resume and while the gap isn't large, it is clear. I think you overestimate how much value the committee places on bad losses. They matter, but the committee has always cared more about who you beat, where you beat them, and how you beat them.

Teams don't get love from the computers for no reason. I understand those who don't like teams getting rewarded for obliterating a bunch of Q4 opponents, I think that's a flaw too. That's not what's happening with Arizona. They are decimating quality teams: Alabama (N) by 13, Wisconsin (H) by 25, Colorado (A/H) by 20 and 47, Utah (H) by 19. Compare that to us we have Kansas (N) by 14, Villanova (H) by 13, Texas (H w/o their leading scorer) by 21, Seton Hall (H w/o their leading scorer) by 18. Being able to not just beat but dominate good teams matters.

Good news is, they're in striking distance and they only have Q2B and Q3 games left. Win our Q1 games and we will pass them.

100%. People also forget that just because they are ahead of them now does not mean they will finish ahead even if they both win out from. Arizona plays virtually no one to close the season, even in their conference tournament they play no one. MU on the other hand has a minimum of 3-4 Q1 games and could go to 5. If they win all of them, they would surely move ahead of Arizona. As it stands now Arizona's numbers are just slightly better.

If I had to guess the final 1 seed isnt going to come down to Arizona at all. I think its going to come down to Marquette or Tennessee.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2024, 05:33:56 PM by HowardsWorld »

MuggsyB

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2386 on: February 23, 2024, 06:20:17 PM »
100%. People also forget that just because they are ahead of them now does not mean they will finish ahead even if they both win out from. Arizona plays virtually no one to close the season, even in their conference tournament they play no one. MU on the other hand has a minimum of 3-4 Q1 games and could go to 5. If they win all of them, they would surely move ahead of Arizona. As it stands now Arizona's numbers are just slightly better.

If I had to guess the final 1 seed isnt going to come down to Arizona at all. I think its going to come down to Marquette or Tennessee.

Howard,

We control our own destiny.  In the meantime let's hope UVA punks UNC, Tenn loses a few, and UCLA beats Zona.  I will be happy with a 2 seed regardless.  It's time to play our A game the next few weeks and throughout the NCAA tournament. 

HowardsWorld

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2387 on: February 23, 2024, 06:26:10 PM »
Howard,

We control our own destiny.  In the meantime let's hope UVA punks UNC, Tenn loses a few, and UCLA beats Zona.  I will be happy with a 2 seed regardless.  It's time to play our A game the next few weeks and throughout the NCAA tournament.

I agree. To be honest, I don't really care what our seed is as long as we are playing well. For me its about seeing Marquette on the 1 line for the first time in my life but I'm certainly not going to complain with a 2 seed either.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2024, 06:28:37 PM by HowardsWorld »

PGsHeroes32

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2388 on: February 23, 2024, 07:01:40 PM »
No one's forgetting that they lost to Oregon State and Stanford. And no one's arguing that we don't have good wins. The argument that is universally accepted by all but Marquette fans is that despite that, Arizona still has a better overall resume and while the gap isn't large, it is clear. I think you overestimate how much value the committee places on bad losses. They matter, but the committee has always cared more about who you beat, where you beat them, and how you beat them.

Teams don't get love from the computers for no reason. I understand those who don't like teams getting rewarded for obliterating a bunch of Q4 opponents, I think that's a flaw too. That's not what's happening with Arizona. They are decimating quality teams: Alabama (N) by 13, Wisconsin (H) by 25, Colorado (A/H) by 20 and 47, Utah (H) by 19. Compare that to us we have Kansas (N) by 14, Villanova (H) by 13, Texas (H w/o their leading scorer) by 21, Seton Hall (H w/o their leading scorer) by 18. Being able to not just beat but dominate good teams matters.

Good news is, they're in striking distance and they only have Q2B and Q3 games left. Win our Q1 games and we will pass them.

I agree with you that Zona has the resume

Not sure why you are using the leading scoreer thing for us though

1. It probably applies to games that zona played as well with guys being out

2. Its irrelevent to resumes

3. We were missing guys vs Hall

4. We absolutely eviscerated Texas the parenthesis should be it was ONLY 21 when Shaka envoked the mercy rule
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2389 on: February 24, 2024, 05:23:18 AM »
I blame DePaul

HowardsWorld

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2390 on: February 24, 2024, 07:01:19 AM »
Teams to cheer for today.

Baylor over Houston
St. Johns over Creighton
Washington over Arizona
Wake Forest over Duke
Iowa over Illinois
Virginia Over N.Carolina
Kentucky over Alabama
Nova over Uconn
Texas AM over Tennessee

Realistically I only see Baylor, St Johns, Wake Forest, Virginia and Kentucky winning.

Its DJOver

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2391 on: February 24, 2024, 07:17:03 AM »
Teams to cheer for today.

Baylor over Houston
St. Johns over Creighton
Washington over Arizona
Wake Forest over Duke
Iowa over Illinois
Virginia Over N.Carolina
Kentucky over Alabama
Nova over Uconn
Texas AM over Tennessee

Realistically I only see Baylor, St Johns, Wake Forest, Virginia and Kentucky winning.

Don't think I agree about Baylor over Houston.  When people speculate about our potential path to a 1 its to replace AZ not Houston.  They're pretty well locked into a 1 right now.  Baylor's looking like a 3, but if you add a win of that quality to their resume, they'd be getting closer to that 2 line. I'd rather all the currently project 3's and 4's rack up a few more losses to continue to give us a little breathing room on the 2 line.
I'll stick with my opinion on Gold.  He'll be in foul trouble within the first eight minutes.

HowardsWorld

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2392 on: February 24, 2024, 07:52:26 AM »
If NOVA can somehow pull a win out today we would control our destiny for the Big East Title.

rocket surgeon

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2393 on: February 24, 2024, 08:34:22 AM »
                 Texas AM over Tennessee

   buzz owes us and if anyone can do this-he wants to dance on the checker board

wake forest giving 2.5 at home to duke-this is going to be a battle

Az will NOT lose 2nd straight home game...to washington of all teams

take iowa getting 9.5 but they will not win at illinois

baylor's new arena is a mega phone of fans volume funneled to floor-houston could pee themselves
 

big game for kentucky to define themselves at home

kansas is a paper #9

i like the johnnies at home over creighton-take the points at least, rick has rallied the troops

feel sorry for nova-uconn coming off their butt-hurt loss to creighton are going to throttle nova at home
don't...don't don't don't don't

Goose

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2394 on: February 24, 2024, 08:50:28 AM »
rocket

It looks like you have some winners there. I like Baylor and SJU today.

MuggsyB

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2395 on: February 24, 2024, 08:55:43 AM »
Teams to cheer for today.

Baylor over Houston
St. Johns over Creighton
Washington over Arizona
Wake Forest over Duke
Iowa over Illinois
Virginia Over N.Carolina
Kentucky over Alabama
Nova over Uconn
Texas AM over Tennessee

Realistically I only see Baylor, St Johns, Wake Forest, Virginia and Kentucky winning.

 I agree with DJO about Baylor.  I think we want those teams on the 3 line to lose. 

The most important result today imo is UVA beating UNC.  I have no idea why UNC is 5 in the top 16, but the Cavs beating them would be helpful. 

mugrad_89

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2396 on: February 24, 2024, 09:38:09 AM »
I guarantee you St. John’s will not beat Creighton today, because they play tomorrow.

MuggsyB

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2397 on: February 24, 2024, 10:23:48 AM »
Maybe it's my bias, and I haven’t watched it for some time, but College GameDay on ESPN is horrible television. 

cheebs09

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2398 on: February 24, 2024, 10:26:13 AM »
Maybe it's my bias, and I haven’t watched it for some time, but College GameDay on ESPN is horrible television.

Can't remember the last time I've watched it. I feel like I haven't been missing out.

MuggsyB

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Re: 2023-2024 College Basketball Thread
« Reply #2399 on: February 24, 2024, 10:32:26 AM »
Can't remember the last time I've watched it. I feel like I haven't been missing out.

You're not Cheebs.  I mean Rece Davis and Bilas are fine but the rest of these people are terrible. 

 

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