ChatGPT

[lostpassword]

I've been wondering when this would become a discussion topic.  Without getting into details, I'm well-versed in this area.  I see a lot of incorrect or misunderstood information (some in this thread) about what ChatGPT or its sibling LLMs (e.g., Google Bard) are doing and what they are useful for or what risks they pose to jobs or society in general.  No one in their right mind should be using them to produce trusted facts in a Q & A manner (at least not yet).  It won't be long though before these tools are integrated and backed with google-search and computational platforms such as wolfram-alpha which know the rules of math and science and those flaws are gone or inconsequential.  Both of those examples already exist just not publicly. Some are arguing that GPT-4 (even without these extensions) shows hints of AGI. I'm not nearly that bullish.

Generative AI is already being put to use for 'inspiration' (as Tamu has for baby names) or as an 'assistant' (see Microsoft co-pilot which will soon be part of Office 365) with good results.  Big, reputable organizations are moving from exploring possibilities to investing in targeted uses and experiments while maintaining a human in the loop.  These same organizations are launching Ethical or Responsible AI governance programs given the multitude of problems which can arise.  On the whole, I have been impressed by the thoughtfulness, but I have no idea what bad actors are up to.

The productivity gains that we'll see will impact jobs.  Stocking frames put the Luddites out of jobs.  The automobile put carriage makers out of jobs.  The PC put computers (the people who did manual computing) out of jobs.  There will be 'new' jobs and industries.  Whether those new jobs futher seperate the haves and have-nots remains to be seen.  We tend to overestimate the pace of change and yet are quite resilient when that change comes.  I'm reminded of this thread: https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=48341.msg751575#msg751575

My last 2 thoughts are not anything unique to AI but bear mentioning:

So long as there is money to be made, there will be hype.  There is money to be made.
It will be messy and mistakes will be made.

[Hards Alumni]

I'm glad my bad takes weren't in that thread, but I'm sure there is at least one where I was sure that we'd have self driving cars by like 2020.

[Skatastrophy]

Good article today on the inherent limitations on LLMs and how we're already near the edge of what they're capable off. The next AI leap will come from another technology, according to OpenAI's CEO:

https://www.wired.com/story/openai-ceo-sam-altman-the-age-of-giant-ai-models-is-already-over/

[forgetful]

Super interesting ..

.. The other day, my teenage son was imagining a golf swing analyzer, along the lines of "it'd watch your swing, then using AI determine what you were doing wrong."

I reminded him that while AI is groovy, the more you replace everything imaginable with robots, the fewer jobs there will be in the future.  Not everything has to be AI, and the rush to use it will totally screw his future, or that of his kids.

We're not headed for some fantasy Star Trek society where all human needs are met and humans are free to explore their passions 24/7. 

I'm a technologist myself, and I think we're headed into a very dark future with robots and AI.  Not necessarily in 3, 5, 10 years, but beyond that all bets are off, all jobs are on the chopping block.

I heard statistic today that says on average kids today will have 28 jobs in their lifetime...most of which haven't even been invented yet.

[Not A Serious Person]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chatgpt-revolution-has-driven-half-the-gains-in-the-stock-market-this-year-jpmorgan-1d70e776

The interest sparked in artificial intelligence driven by ChatGPT and other large language models has driven more than half the gains in the S&P 500 this year, according to an analysis from JPMorgan. The analysis finds that interest in the theme has led to a market cap creation of $1.4 trillion and gains of 45% year-to-date.

[Hards Alumni]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chatgpt-revolution-has-driven-half-the-gains-in-the-stock-market-this-year-jpmorgan-1d70e776

The interest sparked in artificial intelligence driven by ChatGPT and other large language models has driven more than half the gains in the S&P 500 this year, according to an analysis from JPMorgan. The analysis finds that interest in the theme has led to a market cap creation of $1.4 trillion and gains of 45% year-to-date.

I think I read yesterday that Microsoft mentioned AI 65 times in their Q1 ER

[Not A Serious Person]

Good article today on the inherent limitations on LLMs and how we're already near the edge of what they're capable off. The next AI leap will come from another technology, according to OpenAI's CEO:

https://www.wired.com/story/openai-ceo-sam-altman-the-age-of-giant-ai-models-is-already-over/

Here's the legend: at a computer trade show in 1981, Bill Gates supposedly uttered this statement, in defense of the just-introduced IBM PC's 640KB usable RAM limit: "640K ought to be enough for anybody."

Even so, Gates' alleged statement looks like one of the most dogmatic, short-sighted comments ever, a verbal blunder perhaps topped only by Digital Equipment Corp. founder Ken Olsen's 1977 quip, "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home." (Olsen did actually say that, but he said later that the quote was taken out of context, and that he was referring not to PCs but to computers set up to control houses.)

https://www.computerworld.com/article/2534312/the--640k--quote-won-t-go-away----but-did-gates-really-say-it-.html

[Skatastrophy]

Here's the legend: at a computer trade show in 1981, Bill Gates supposedly uttered this statement, in defense of the just-introduced IBM PC's 640KB usable RAM limit: "640K ought to be enough for anybody."

Even so, Gates' alleged statement looks like one of the most dogmatic, short-sighted comments ever, a verbal blunder perhaps topped only by Digital Equipment Corp. founder Ken Olsen's 1977 quip, "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home." (Olsen did actually say that, but he said later that the quote was taken out of context, and that he was referring not to PCs but to computers set up to control houses.)

https://www.computerworld.com/article/2534312/the--640k--quote-won-t-go-away----but-did-gates-really-say-it-.html

That's not a good analogy, LLMs have well known limitations. That's why most people's AI focus for next gen tech is not on LLM tech.

Your analogy could be improved if it were a different person quoted back then. Jobs is not technical, he's a marketing/design guy.

It would also be more apt if he, or more likely Wozniak, said that there are inherent limitations in RAM technology. To go bigger and faster will need another approach.

Ya know?

[Not A Serious Person]

That's not a good analogy, LLMs have well known limitations. That's why most people's AI focus for next gen tech is not on LLM tech.

Your analogy could be improved if it were a different person quoted back then. Jobs is not technical, he's a marketing/design guy.

It would also be more apt if he, or more likely Wozniak, said that there are inherent limitations in RAM technology. To go bigger and faster will need another approach.

Ya know?

Not Jobs, Gates and Ken Olsen

[Skatastrophy]

Not Jobs, Gates and Ken Olsen

My bad, you're right, I should get a coffee.

Still the 2nd half of my point stands. There's an inherent limitation in LLM AI, and there was not an inherent limitation in RAM unless you consider ROM size or DDR tech improvements. LLMs will still only know what they know, they can't really extrapolate. Other AI approaches will better approach "intelligence."

[lawdog77]

AI has reached its pinnacle

https://twitter.com/AKBrews/status/1650910890772905987

[ATL MU Warrior]

AI has reached its pinnacle

https://twitter.com/AKBrews/status/1650910890772905987

AI is about to get inundated with calls from multiple ad agencies for open ECD/CD roles

[Hards Alumni]

AI has reached its pinnacle

https://twitter.com/AKBrews/status/1650910890772905987

Yeah, it's obvious that it AI production, but this is just the first iteration.  Things like this could easily replace some people's job's rather quickly.

Think how inexpensive it was to create that versus paying everyone to do it.

[lawdog77]

AI has reached its pinnacle

https://twitter.com/AKBrews/status/1650910890772905987

https://twitter.com/ArmandDoma/status/1652830755628912640

Better or worse than the Pizzas commercial?

[jficke13]

I love how these things miss on things like mouths and end up instead of "real life" they create "cosmic horror."

[BrewCity83]

I talked to a Marquette TA today who is grading term papers and she said she's come across at least three this week that she's certain are AI generated.  I asked her what they do with those, and she threw up her hands and said "nothing".  Although they are said to not be allowed, MU apparently doesn't have any written policies on how to deal with them yet.  So she thinks they're going to slide through this semester.

[forgetful]

I talked to a Marquette TA today who is grading term papers and she said she's come across at least three this week that she's certain are AI generated.  I asked her what they do with those, and she threw up her hands and said "nothing".  Although they are said to not be allowed, MU apparently doesn't have any written policies on how to deal with them yet.  So she thinks they're going to slide through this semester.

My University has already adopted polices. I'm sure MU has a committee working on adopting similar policies.

We also already have software that can detect AI generated works.

[lawdog77]

My University has already adopted polices. I'm sure MU has a committee working on adopting similar policies.

We also already have software that can detect AI generated works.

AI vs AI. Kind of like Mad Magazine Spy vs Spy, I hope

[jficke13]

Every chatgpt essay I’ve ever seen simply wouldn’t get a good enough grade to be worth it unless a C (if that) is acceptable to you.

Plus the “google the quotes because their probably made up” thing is a good rule of thumb on catching them.

[Not A Serious Person]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/01/technology/ai-google-chatbot-engineer-quits-hinton.html

‘The Godfather of A.I.’ Leaves Google and Warns of Danger Ahead
For half a century, Geoffrey Hinton nurtured the technology at the heart of chatbots like ChatGPT. Now he worries it will cause serious harm.

Geoffrey Hinton was an artificial intelligence pioneer. In 2012, Dr. Hinton and two of his graduate students at the University of Toronto created technology that became the intellectual foundation for the A.I. systems that the tech industry’s biggest companies believe is a key to their future.

On Monday, however, he officially joined a growing chorus of critics who say those companies are racing toward danger with their aggressive campaign to create products based on generative artificial intelligence, the technology that powers popular chatbots like ChatGPT.

Dr. Hinton said he has quit his job at Google, where he has worked for more than a decade and became one of the most respected voices in the field, so he can freely speak out about the risks of A.I. A part of him, he said, now regrets his life’s work.

“I console myself with the normal excuse: If I hadn’t done it, somebody else would have,” Dr. Hinton said during a lengthy interview last week in the dining room of his home in Toronto, a short walk from where he and his students made their breakthrough.

Dr. Hinton’s journey from A.I. groundbreaker to doomsayer marks a remarkable moment for the technology industry at perhaps its most important inflection point in decades. Industry leaders believe the new A.I. systems could be as important as the introduction of the web browser in the early 1990s and could lead to breakthroughs in areas ranging from drug research to education.

But gnawing at many industry insiders is a fear that they are releasing something dangerous into the wild. Generative A.I. can already be a tool for misinformation. Soon, it could be a risk to jobs. Somewhere down the line, tech’s biggest worriers say, it could be a risk to humanity.

“It is hard to see how you can prevent the bad actors from using it for bad things,” Dr. Hinton said.

------------------

Above, I posted a link to a JP Morgan piece that says half the stock market gains this year are tied to AI.

What was it like to invest in technology and the internet in the early 1990s?  AI is at least that big, and might be larger, and is at the same point.

The disruption is going to be epic. Tens of millions of jobs will be lost.  But ... and this is important .... tens of millions of new jobs that currently do not exist will be created.

History shows new technology is a net creator of jobs.

It is easy to see the jobs that will be lost. It is hard to see the jobs that will be created. So, we tend to fear disruption.

And yes, the potential for abuse will be off the scales.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/01/technology/ai-google-chatbot-engineer-quits-hinton.html

‘The Godfather of A.I.’ Leaves Google and Warns of Danger Ahead
For half a century, Geoffrey Hinton nurtured the technology at the heart of chatbots like ChatGPT. Now he worries it will cause serious harm.

Geoffrey Hinton was an artificial intelligence pioneer. In 2012, Dr. Hinton and two of his graduate students at the University of Toronto created technology that became the intellectual foundation for the A.I. systems that the tech industry’s biggest companies believe is a key to their future.

On Monday, however, he officially joined a growing chorus of critics who say those companies are racing toward danger with their aggressive campaign to create products based on generative artificial intelligence, the technology that powers popular chatbots like ChatGPT.

Dr. Hinton said he has quit his job at Google, where he has worked for more than a decade and became one of the most respected voices in the field, so he can freely speak out about the risks of A.I. A part of him, he said, now regrets his life’s work.

“I console myself with the normal excuse: If I hadn’t done it, somebody else would have,” Dr. Hinton said during a lengthy interview last week in the dining room of his home in Toronto, a short walk from where he and his students made their breakthrough.

Dr. Hinton’s journey from A.I. groundbreaker to doomsayer marks a remarkable moment for the technology industry at perhaps its most important inflection point in decades. Industry leaders believe the new A.I. systems could be as important as the introduction of the web browser in the early 1990s and could lead to breakthroughs in areas ranging from drug research to education.

But gnawing at many industry insiders is a fear that they are releasing something dangerous into the wild. Generative A.I. can already be a tool for misinformation. Soon, it could be a risk to jobs. Somewhere down the line, tech’s biggest worriers say, it could be a risk to humanity.

“It is hard to see how you can prevent the bad actors from using it for bad things,” Dr. Hinton said.

------------------

Above, I posted a link to a JP Morgan piece that says half the stock market gains this year are tied to AI.

What was it like to invest in technology and the internet in the early 1990s?  AI is at least that big, and might be larger, and is at the same point.

The disruption is going to be epic. Tens of millions of jobs will be lost.  But ... and this is important .... tens of millions of new jobs that currently do not exist will be created.

History shows new technology is a net creator of jobs.

It is easy to see the jobs that will be lost. It is hard to see the jobs that will be created. So, we tend to fear disruption.

And yes, the potential for abuse will be off the scales.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite

[Not A Serious Person]

IBM to Pause Hiring for Jobs That AI Could Do
Roughly 7,800 IBM jobs could be replaced by AI, automation.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-01/ibm-to-pause-hiring-for-back-office-jobs-that-ai-could-kill?sref=SgYAAa0L

International Business Machines Corp. Chief Executive Officer Arvind Krishna said the company expects to pause hiring for roles it thinks could be replaced with artificial intelligence in the coming years.

Hiring in back-office functions — such as human resources — will be suspended or slowed, Krishna said in an interview. These non-customer-facing roles amount to roughly 26,000 workers, Krishna said. “I could easily see 30% of that getting replaced by AI and automation over a five-year period.”

That would mean roughly 7,800 jobs lost. Part of any reduction would include not replacing roles vacated by attrition, an IBM spokesperson said.

As artificial intelligence tools have captured the public imagination for their ability to automate customer service, write text and generate code, many observers have worried about their potential to disrupt the labor market. Krishna’s plan marks one of the largest workforce strategies announced in response to the rapidly advancing technology.

[Hards Alumni]

It's going to happen fast.  Much faster than we can regulate it, probably.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I always hear the line about "A thousand new jobs that don't exits yet will be created....". Is there are theoretical point where that is no longer true?

[Hards Alumni]

I always hear the line about "A thousand new jobs that don't exits yet will be created....". Is there are theoretical point where that is no longer true?

A thousand new ones, but the erasure of a million redundant ones.  Much like when something like 60% of our country used to be farmers, and since automation something like 1% or 2% are farmers.

I think people are trying to paint a rosy picture.