The Future of Cities

[MU82]

This website says otherwise:

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/22956/chicago/population

The current metro area population of Chicago in 2023 is 8,937,000, a 0.4% increase from 2022.
The metro area population of Chicago in 2022 was 8,901,000, a 0.27% increase from 2021.
The metro area population of Chicago in 2021 was 8,877,000, a 0.14% increase from 2020.
The metro area population of Chicago in 2020 was 8,865,000, a 0.03% increase from 2019.

And regardless, we're splitting hairs. The Chicago metro area has about 9 million residents. Even if it lost a million -- and I doubt it will in my lifetime -- it will still be huge fertile ground for Marquette and other area universities.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Not anymore ... crossed over to negative in 2022 after many years of falling growth rates


https://www.ibjonline.com/2023/04/02/91-of-102-illinois-counties-lose-population-in-2022-rural-counties-at-a-faster-rate/

Psh.  July 2022 is way too old of a data set.  Damn the reporting periods and data collation.

[Heisenberg]

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[MU82]

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[Heisenberg]

You just scolded Hards for assuming something about you. And then, once you didn't care for the facts that were presented, you resorted to a personal attack, which I certainly didn't do to you.

You are correct. That was unfair of me. I apologize.
I deleted my post. Feel free to delete the quote in your reply if you desire.

I will answer you this way (starting with what I wrote before) ...

----

I've attended lunches with Lovell, and he talked at length about how MU needs to diversify away from suburban Chicago (Deerfield, Wilmette, Naperville, Homewood, Gurnee, Tinley Park, and Park Ridge).

I've seen you participate in threads in this forum about the same need.

Why does everyone think MU needs to diversify away from suburban Chicago? It is not because it is a bad place. It is because it is not growing. 

So, you are correct the number of applications from suburban Chicago is not going to zero ... ever (as you said, even if it falls one million tomorrow). But it is not growing. And for MU to maintain its academic and reputational standards, it needs a growing pool of applications to maintain its selectivity.

That growing pool of applications will no longer come from the area that has supplied a growing pool of applications for many decades ... suburban Chicago. 

This is a problem. Not a problem tomorrow. But a real and significant long-term planning problem.

[Hards Alumni]

Please show me where I mentioned crime in my posts and how that became a central theme of my ideas.  That's you attempted to portray me as a racist. And that makes you disgusting.

To help you, see the five or so posts above. The problem is the declining population.

See the second post quoting the mayor of Milwaukee, a city with a falling population will eventually die with a declining population. That is my concern. The population of Milwaukee and Chicago are declining, which is a big problem for an institution I care about ... MU.

---

So, while I did not say my motivation for this thread, I will say it now ... it was the budget cuts at Depaul, and I worried that this is as much about being in a large northern city as the specific management decision at Depaul ... and a potential leading indicator for MU.

---

And yes, your first sentence is 100% correct. Like everyone else, I come to a message board to discuss topics. Why exactly are you here? And why do you post replies?

And again, I do not appreciate you suggesting I'm a racist.

I think you're telling on yourself a bit here.  I never brought race into the equation.  You seem to be equating crime with race... which, believe it or not, is very very racist.

[Heisenberg]

I think you're telling on yourself a bit here.  I never brought race into the equation.  You seem to be equating crime with race... which, believe it or not, is very very racist.

You know what you did, everyone here knows what you did. And instead of apologizing, you just doubled down and now outright called me a racist, instead of implying it.

you're a disgusting piece of sh!t.

[Hards Alumni]

You know what you did, everyone here knows what you did. And instead of apologizing, you just doubled down and now outright called me a racist, instead of implying it.

you're a disgusting piece of sh!t.

The only person you should be looking at is yourself. 

I think the typed words speak well enough for themselves.

[dgies9156]

This is based on an incorrect belief of who is leaving cities and why they are declining.

It is families that are leaving the city. And more African-American families than White familes.  African-American familes are terrible victims of crime (mainly black-on-black), and if they have the means, they leave. What is left is those that cannot leave. They are angry and desperate and the downward cycle continues.

Side note, where do many African-American families that leave large northern cities go?

https://www.brookings.edu/research/a-new-great-migration-is-bringing-black-americans-back-to-the-south/
A 'New Great Migration' is bringing Black Americans back to the South

Brother Heise:

You miss my point.

Want to upgrade a declining neighborhood -- or even a slum?

Bring in the gays! It works!


Beginning early in the last century and continuing for decades, Black Americans took part in a "Great Migration" that saw millions move out of the South and into other parts of the country. But over the past 50 years, that historic event has reversed, as many returned to the South in a "New Great Migration."

Now, new Census Bureau migration data released over the past year makes plain that this return movement is continuing, although with some dispersion to other parts of the country. This report builds on earlier migration analyses to incorporate new statistics from the Census Bureau's 5-Year American Community Survey.

----

A vibrant Gay community will not get families to stay, especially African-Americans. Affordability, jobs, schools, and safety will get them to stay. Trendy restaurants and art galleries are not going to fix these problems.

[The Sultan]

A vibrant Gay community will not get families to stay, especially African-Americans. Affordability, jobs, schools, and safety will get them to stay. Trendy restaurants and art galleries are not going to fix these problems.

WTH do people mean by "vibrant gay community?" Most of the gay people I know just kind of live their lives like everyone else.  Many are married and have children - and are treated just fine by their neighbors.

[dgies9156]

Vibrant gay community means a gay community that's full of life, accepted and willing to make the same investment in a community that the straights are.

Vibrant gay community means a community where people are free to express themselves without fear of harassment, vandalism, hate crimes or ridicule. Where they can have a drag show if they want and not have a mice-trapping governor think the First Amendment stops at who you sleep with.

Yeah, I'm talking you, Ron!!!!

Vibrant gay community means going to a bar on a Saturday night and not having a nutcase play shoot-em-up because too much of society condemns you because they don't like who you sleep with! Or who you love!

Vibrant gay community means that when a gay or lesbian couple moves in next door, it's not a big deal! That they're welcomed by the straights.

That's a vibrant gay community!

[MU82]

You are correct. That was unfair of me. I apologize.
I deleted my post. Feel free to delete the quote in your reply if you desire.

I will answer you this way (starting with what I wrote before) ...

----

I've attended lunches with Lovell, and he talked at length about how MU needs to diversify away from suburban Chicago (Deerfield, Wilmette, Naperville, Homewood, Gurnee, Tinley Park, and Park Ridge).

I've seen you participate in threads in this forum about the same need.

Why does everyone think MU needs to diversify away from suburban Chicago? It is not because it is a bad place. It is because it is not growing. 

So, you are correct the number of applications from suburban Chicago is not going to zero ... ever (as you said, even if it falls one million tomorrow). But it is not growing. And for MU to maintain its academic and reputational standards, it needs a growing pool of applications to maintain its selectivity.

That growing pool of applications will no longer come from the area that has supplied a growing pool of applications for many decades ... suburban Chicago. 

This is a problem. Not a problem tomorrow. But a real and significant long-term planning problem.

Suburban Chicago actually is growing, albeit very slowly now. Even if it starts declining, though, it will not be a flood of departures. Millions upon millions of people -- and their high-school and college aged kids -- will still happily reside there for decades.

But yes, Marquette needs diversity. We agree on that.

Based on the information available right now, I do not see this as an existential threat, certainly not in my lifetime. But I don't pretend to be skilled at projecting demographics several decades into the future, so we'll see what happens -- or at least our kids and grandkids will see what happens.

[MuggsyB]

Fascinating question, to say the least.

I admit I left the Chicago area after living there for 44 years. Love the city and the region but had some serious issues that as I faced retirement, I felt a change was appropriate. That said, there's a couple things that have to be done to make Urban America grow again:

1) Education -- Fixing the education system is Job 1. If students can't read and write at grade level when they graduate, they're not going to be able to move on to college or sophisticated workplaces. They're stuck with no way out. Chicago, for example, spends twice the average per pupil as the state at large and the results are terrible. This is an area that can't be understated.

2) Crime -- Solve the education problem and you're on your way to solving the crime problem. Regardless, this must be dealt with in most major cities.

3) Investment -- Nothing makes a city hum like corporate headquarters. The merger and acquisition wave of the past 50 years has robbed cities of their core benefactors. Look at the number of corporate headquarters in Chicago when I arrived -- 1978 -- versus now. It's only getting worse. Without major corporate benefactors, there's less focus on building a cultural and social infrastructure. Milwaukee has Baird, NML and Harley Davidson, among others, and those are the firms that support the performing arts. Baird took a major stand for what became AmFam Park and it's there because the corporate headquarters firms stepped up.

4) Gay Community -- In every city I've ever lived in, urban renewal has been far less effective than an active and vibrant gay community. Chicago's Boystown, Nashville's East Side (Lockland Springs), San Francisco's Mission District all owe their present cache to the efforts of the gay and/or lesbian communities. The religious right needs to understand that if they want to reinvigorate their communities, they need to be welcoming and even encouraging to gay and lesbian people. They know how to rehab and they certainly know how to party!

Brother Dgies,

All the things you have mentioned are dependent on #1 and the primary problem is we have the wrong vision and overall goals.  It starts with early childhood education.  I'm talking ages 2-5.  We should have a national goal that  learning to read before age 5 is mandatory or you can't enroll in kindergarten.

I used to tutor kids ages 12-17 in both reading/writing and math in Chicago and DC.  It's absolutely astounding that their skill levels are so behind.  As far as I can tell nothing has changed.  In lieu of this idea of free college what we should have is free or minimal cost early childhood education in our inner cities. 

It can be done with the right vision and right incentives to get high quality pre K teachers.  Everything starts with learning how to read.  We have failed our children and our entire educational system needs to be re-examined imo.  Start with one simple but vital goal.  For those that do not have special needs reading by age 5 has to be mandatory.  The two most important things that can be done for young children is learning how to swim and learning how to read. 

[JWags85]

The two most important things that can be done for young children is learning how to swim and learning how to read.

I dont disagree with most of your post, but putting learning to read and learning to swim at anywhere the same level is kind of wild, unless you live in a balmy climate and have a pool in your backyard.  For a kid growing up in the Midwest or Northern climates where pool/swimming weather is 3 months a year at best, I think there are far more important/pressing developmental goals.

[MuggsyB]

I dont disagree with most of your post, but putting learning to read and learning to swim at anywhere the same level is kind of wild, unless you live in a balmy climate and have a pool in your backyard.  For a kid growing up in the Midwest or Northern climates where pool/swimming weather is 3 months a year at best, I think there are far more important/pressing developmental goals.

Kids drown constantly JWags.  I'd have to look it up but I believe among young children it's the 2nd leading cause of accidental death.  it's extremely important and we don't emphasize or talk about it nearly enough. 

[Uncle Rico]

Kids drown constantly JWags.  I'd have to look it up but I believe among young children it's the 2nd leading cause of accidental death.  it's extremely important and we don't emphasize or talk about it nearly enough.

Most kids are idiots

[Pakuni]

Kids drown constantly JWags.  I'd have to look it up but I believe among young children it's the 2nd leading cause of accidental death.  it's extremely important and we don't emphasize or talk about it nearly enough.

Learning to swim is very important, but drowning is pretty far down the list of causes of child deaths.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2201761

[MuggsyB]

Learning to swim is very important, but drowning is pretty far down the list of causes of child deaths.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmc2201761

I meant accidental deaths.  Kids need to learn how to swim. 

[The Sultan]

900 kids drown a year. 4,300 die from firearms.

But let's get all freaked out about swim lessons.

[MuggsyB]

900 kids drown a year. 4,300 die from firearms.

But let's get all freaked out about swim lessons.

That's not the point, nor am I freaking out.

[Uncle Rico]

That's not the point, nor am I freaking out.

In addition to swimming lessons, kids need firearm lessons.

[lawdog77]

In addition to swimming lessons, kids need firearm lessons.

Give every kid a life jacket and a kevlar vest

[Skatastrophy]

Psh.  July 2022 is way too old of a data set.  Damn the reporting periods and data collation.

It's not an old data set, but it's a crappy publication using data published by the disreputable Illinois Policy Institute (a far-right think tank). Illinois Policy Institute says they're using Census estimate data, but I can only find that number on the Census bureau website using their "vintage analysis" approach to population estimates which has been off by as much as 500,000 people in Illinois as recently as 2020.

Did you know that the US Census Bureau has estimated Chicago & Illinois' population loss incredibly inaccurately every year thanks to those vintage estimates? Thankfully there are real counts every once in a while, and also the census bureau has been working to update their estimation methodology. It was interesting that the real census count in 2020 proved that Illinois grew by 250,000 instead of the census bureau estimates saying Illinois shrunk by 250,000 people.  Here's an interesting article if you're interested - https://chicago.suntimes.com/columnists/2023/3/31/23665433/census-bureau-illinois-population-estimates-raja-krishnamoorthi-column-rich-miller

The author of this piece in the Sun Times is Rich Miller. From his Wikipedia - Miller was a columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times for 8 years before joining Crain's Chicago Business in 2014 as a columnist.[2] The Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois.

Seems trustworthy?

Compared to the article that Heisenberg shared written by "Editor" from the "Illinois Business Journal." The Illinois Business Journal seems to be run by Greg Hoskins (who owns 20+ small town papers in Southern Illinois), and has one editor, Melissa Crockett Meske. Melissa's credentials are that she's a communications strategist, "My bylines appear in publications throughout the United States including the Illinois Business Journal, Great Rivers & Routes Tourism Bureau (Southwestern Illinois) seasonal tourism guides, various RiverBend Growth Association publications including their annual Currents magazine." https://macmeske.com/

It would be nice if Heisenberg could find good sources to back up their opinions on things. The crappy sources make it seem like the arguments are intellectually dishonest? Pretty weird, honestly.

[Heisenberg]

Suburban Chicago actually is growing, albeit very slowly now. Even if it starts declining, though, it will not be a flood of departures. Millions upon millions of people -- and their high-school and college aged kids -- will still happily reside there for decades.

But yes, Marquette needs diversity. We agree on that.

Based on the information available right now, I do not see this as an existential threat, certainly not in my lifetime. But I don't pretend to be skilled at projecting demographics several decades into the future, so we'll see what happens -- or at least our kids and grandkids will see what happens.

Let's agree that 2022 Suburban Chicago population growth has now sunk to zero (you showed a slight increase, around 0.15%, and I showed a slight decrease of -0.15%. Let's round it to zero). Over the same time, the US population grew by 0.38%

Suburban Chicago's population has been ~2% larger since 2010. The US is ~9% larger over the same period.

Schools that do not rely on suburban Chicago as a primary source of students are seeing applications grow faster than MU. This allows schools everywhere else to increase their standards for acceptance faster than MU.

So, MU's standards will fall faster than everyone else. They will sink reputationally, and their ability to grow the university will also be impaired.

Again, why do I care about this? Let's look at another similar school that also relies on Suburban Chicago for their primary source of students, Depaul.

Their enrollment started sinking at least six years ago. For Depaul, this is not a problem decades into the future. It has already started. To assume MU can escape this same plight for decades is misplaced. For all we know, it has already started at MU.



That is unless MU can transcend its geographic constraints and become a truly national university. Happy to hear an argument as to why this is happening or about to happen.

It is short-sided to brush this problem off as it will largely occur after I die, so who cares. Responsible universities, and their trustees, care a great deal about long-term planning and need to deal with these problems now.

I know Lovell cared. He told me as much at more than one luncheon I attended., He is fully aware of the population decline and the challenges it poses.

[Uncle Rico]

Let's agree that 2022 Suburban Chicago population growth has now sunk to zero (you showed a slight increase, around 0.15%, and I showed a slight decrease of -0.15%. Let's round it to zero). Over the same time, the US population grew by 0.38%

Suburban Chicago's population has been ~2% larger since 2010. The US is ~9% larger over the same period.

Schools that do not rely on suburban Chicago as students' primary source is seeing applications grow faster than MU everywhere else. This allows schools everywhere else to increase their standards for acceptance faster than MU.

So, MU's standards will fall faster than everyone else. They will sink reputationally, and their ability to grow the Unvoierity will also be impaired.

Again, why do I care about this? Let's look t another similar school that also relies on Suburban Chicago for their primary source of students, Depaul.

Their enrollment started sinking at least six years ago. For Depaul, this is not a problem decades into the future. It has already started. To assume MU can escape this same plight for decades is misplaced. For all we know, it has already started at MU.



That is unless MU can transcend its geographic constraints and become a truly national university. Happy to hear an argument as to why this is happening or about to happen.

It is short-sided to brush this problem off as it will largely occur after I die, so who cares. Responsible universities, and their trustees, care a great deal about long-term planning and need to deal with these problems now.

I know Lovell cared. He told me as much at more than one luncheon I attended., He is fully aware of the population decline and the challenges it poses.

Cool