SJU Line

[DegenerateDish]

MU -7.5

O/U 129.5

I like MU and the over.

[Avenue Commons]

Ditto.

[ecompt]

Before our wins at Cincy and Seton Hall, the line would have been around 3. I think we'll cover tonight with late free throws.

[DegenerateDish]

This line has actually stayed pretty consistent.

Here's the updated BE Vegas Power Rankings (as of Monday) used to set lines. Home teams get anywhere from 3 to 5 points added, depending on the arena, match up, day of the week, time of the game.

Louisville 87 (2 months ago they were at 80. Teams rarely move either direction more than 1 point a week)
Georgetown 85 (down from 86 last week)
UConn 82
MU 82 (up from 81 last week)
Pitt 81 (down from 82 last week)
ND 81
West Virginia 81
Syracuse 80
Villanova 77 (up from 76 last week)
Providence 75
DePaul 75
Cincy 75 (up from 74)
Seton Hall 72 (down from 73)
St. Johns 71 (down from 72)
South Florida 71 (up from 70)
Rutgers 67 (up from 65)

Barring injuries or other unforseen events, MU will most likely be around an 18/19 point favorite over Rutgers at home Saturday.

[spiral97]

interesting.. so vegas doesn't do anything to factor in things like complacency when a spread becomes large?  I know some teams tend to hit a particular lead and then just go about maintaining that point differential through the end of the game (resting starters, trying other offensive/defensive approaches for practice, etc.).  As such, when you see a large spread for a team that does that it would see that betters would overwhelmingly pick the opponent rather than being balanced on both sides as Vegas would seem to want.

[DegenerateDish]

You were obviously right on the head when you stated Vegas is just looking for an even take on both sides of the plate. Prior to this season, I didn't really have any idea how Vegas went about setting lines, until I met a friend who knows someone who actually does this for a living. I've become decent friends with this in the know Vegas guy, and listening to him speak about this stuff will make your head spin.

A somewhat interesting stat for this year. For NCAAM this year, the Over is coming in at a whopping 58% of the time. 58% may not sound like much, but over the last few weeks, if you've seen the Over number being higher than you've thought, it's because Vegas has been getting hammered. Some Vegas books aren't putting up non-power conference games because the over has been hitting at over 60% in non BCS conference games this year.

One other thing Vegas books are doing are some books will release their totals for NCAAM mid/late afternoon. They're letting the offshore internet books take the early hits, and then they'll release their totals at higher levels. So if you go to Vegas soon, and don't see as many NCAAM games on the board as you'd expect, wait a few hours and come back post noon.

[Big Papi]

MU -7.5

O/U 129.5

I like MU and the over.

I don't know about the over on this one.  They have only hit the combined 130 mark 3 times in the last 10 games and have scored 54 or less 5 times in the last 10 games and 57 twice.  SO it is safe to say that they struggle to score.

I wouldn't touch either line as I don't think we break 80 on the road which we would need to do if you give the points and take the over but than again I am not much of a bettor.

[WashDCWarrior]

interesting.. so vegas doesn't do anything to factor in things like complacency when a spread becomes large?  I know some teams tend to hit a particular lead and then just go about maintaining that point differential through the end of the game (resting starters, trying other offensive/defensive approaches for practice, etc.).  As such, when you see a large spread for a team that does that it would see that betters would overwhelmingly pick the opponent rather than being balanced on both sides as Vegas would seem to want.

So you're saying if MU were going to be favored over a team like UWM by say 42 points, Vegas would realize Crean would go easy on them and only win by 35.  GOT IT!