Author Topic: MU v Butler: -15, OU 143.5 (Read 1258 times)

fjm · « **on:** February 04, 2023, 07:13:20 AM »

Per Brewcity77:

I'm not a gambler, so take my advice with a grain of salt. But since the start of conference play, Butler has played like the #245 team in the country per Torvik. That's last in the Big East, way behind DePaul and Georgetown. Against top-5 Big East teams (UConn, X, Creighton, Providence) they have lost every game by 20+. As mentioned, their closest loss was 15 in conference play in Newark. On our side, we've played 2 games against the bottom 3 in the league and won both by 20+. And Lukas Harkins pointed out their primary ball handler left the SHU game with a concussion last week and there's no timetable on his return. (Hypothetically he could be back today, but no word on if he's cleared or practicing)

In conference play, they are last in offense, last in eFG%, and last in offensive rebounding. They can't score and can't take advantage of our weaknesses. They have no depth against a team that will make them work for everything. And the crowd is going to be on fire.

Honestly, I don't think they can set the line high enough. -14.5 or -15.5? Take Marquette. -20? Take Marquette. -25? Take Marquette. I think this will be ugly in the best possible way.

—-having said this and this info, I’m going MU -15 for $100. Hopefully some Player parlays once I get some hooch in my gullet.

Go MU, happy NMD

🏀 · « **Reply #1 on:** February 04, 2023, 07:19:33 AM »

Looking for the Oso PRA over today.

Shooter McGavin · « **Reply #2 on:** February 04, 2023, 07:43:59 AM »

Agreed fjm. Should be a blood bath.

rocket surgeon · « **Reply #3 on:** February 04, 2023, 07:44:18 AM »

i'd love to see what the o/u is for butler turnovers

note, most of butler losses, they were held under 60 points, a few under 50. unless this gets fugly real fast, i could see betting the under because we will need to hit 85-90+ to get to 144. ya gotta figure, shaka is going to want to give our "3rd line" some PT. even give our walkies a bone

MU +15 looks like a 5* lock

🏀 · « **Reply #4 on:** February 04, 2023, 07:53:28 AM »

Quote from: rocket surgeon on February 04, 2023, 07:44:18 AM

i'd love to see what the o/u is for butler turnovers

note, most of butler losses, they were held under 60 points, a few under 50. unless this gets fugly real fast, i could see betting the under because we will need to hit 85-90+ to get to 144. ya gotta figure, shaka is going to want to give our "3rd line" some PT. even give our walkies a bone

MU +15 looks like a 5* lock

Agree rocket. I think the over is going to struggle. However, the walk-one give up a lot of points in a short amount of time.

GoldenEagles03 · « **Reply #5 on:** February 04, 2023, 08:29:21 AM »

Take the OMax over points. They don't have anyone that can prevent him from getting to the bucket.

Goose · « **Reply #6 on:** February 04, 2023, 09:39:11 AM »

I would be 0-4 on over/under the last four games, but I like the over. I think MU scores over 85 today.

🏀 · « **Reply #7 on:** February 04, 2023, 09:54:20 AM »

Quote from: GoldenEagles03 on February 04, 2023, 08:29:21 AM

Take the OMax over points. They don't have anyone that can prevent him from getting to the bucket.

I like his PRA a little bit better

brewcity77 · « **Reply #8 on:** February 04, 2023, 10:00:58 AM »

The Tyler O/U on assists is 6.5, that's free money. Butler is one of the worst pick and roll defenses in the country. The idea of "can TK reach his season average against a terrible P&R defense" seems a pretty easy prop.

wisblue · « **Reply #9 on:** February 04, 2023, 10:12:23 AM »

Whenever I have a Butler game on the announcers talk about how many injuries they have had.

I know Bates their center missed a few games and has not done much in the couple since he returned. But have they had other productive players that have been out that could explain how they went from respectable early in the year (including wins over Kansas State and BYU) to completely putrid in conference play?

After Wednesday’s grinder I’m hoping for a relaxing exhibition to get the team tuned up for Tuesday’s big game. And maybe start from the beginning and not wait until the second half like the Georgetown game.

fjm · « **Reply #10 on:** February 04, 2023, 10:13:37 AM »

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 04, 2023, 10:00:58 AM

The Tyler O/U on assists is 6.5, that's free money. Butler is one of the worst pick and roll defenses in the country. The idea of "can TK reach his season average against a terrible P&R defense" seems a pretty easy prop.

Sweet! Since I’m betting from in WI, therefore not exactly doing it ummm less than legit… they haven’t updated those props yet but I’ll be keeping an eye out.