[Cracked Sidewalks] Unbiased Data & the Big East

[brewcity77]

Metrics like kenpom have finally become commonly discussed in college basketball circles, but at this point of the season they are still using old data going back multiple years to inform their rankings. What if we could strip that data out and look at the Big East solely using the on-court results from this season? Cracked Sidewalks does just that to see what the early returns are on the league so far, what we got right (Hello, Butler), and what we got wrong (Oof, Villanova).

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/12/unbiased-data-big-east.html

[Shooter McGavin]

Interesting stuff.  Thanks Brew!   

[GoldenEagles03]

Per HilltopHoops on Twitter

"The NET rankings are out, and they are shocking for Georgetown. Here’s how they rank in the Big East.

2. UConn
33. Creighton
37. Marquette
48. Xavier
63. Butler
71. St. John's
121. Seton Hall
145. Providence
160. Villanova
161. DePaul
250. Georgetown 🤯🤮"

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Per HilltopHoops on Twitter

"The NET rankings are out, and they are shocking for Georgetown. Here’s how they rank in the Big East.

2. UConn
33. Creighton
37. Marquette
48. Xavier
63. Butler
71. St. John's
121. Seton Hall
145. Providence
160. Villanova
161. DePaul
250. Georgetown 🤯🤮"

Looks like a lot of freebie wins for MU! 

[GoldenEagles03]

Looks like a lot of freebie wins for MU! 

Does it though? Based on these numbers we'd peg Nova as 2 easy wins, but we know they won't be.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Looks like a lot of freebie wins for MU! 

Trap games

[CountryRoads]

Per HilltopHoops on Twitter

"The NET rankings are out, and they are shocking for Georgetown. Here’s how they rank in the Big East.

2. UConn
33. Creighton
37. Marquette
48. Xavier
63. Butler
71. St. John's
121. Seton Hall
145. Providence
160. Villanova
161. DePaul
250. Georgetown 🤯🤮"

Badger game was a Quad 3 loss. Not good. We can’t afford losing to teams in that quadrant. It’ll be important to protect our home floor in conference play to avoid any more bad losses.

[rocky_warrior]

Isn't the unbiased data biased because there's not enough data?   

[mugrad_89]

I still think Villanova is going to be a solid - watched them beat Oklahoma on Saturday and Whitmore is going to be really hard to handle as he gets into game shape.

[GoldenEagles03]

I still think Villanova is going to be a solid - watched them beat Oklahoma on Saturday and Whitmore is going to be really hard to handle as he gets into game shape.

They will be just fine moving forward. Problem is, they've dug themselves a hole.  They'll have to be really good in Conference play.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Badger game was a Quad 3 loss. Not good. We can’t afford losing to teams in that quadrant. It’ll be important to protect our home floor in conference play to avoid any more bad losses.

Look on the bright side.  If Wisconsin remains a Q3 loss, they aren't making the tournament.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Isn't the unbiased data biased because there's not enough data?   

Yes

End of the day, MU needs the alphas to win these close, low tempo games. Kam tried to be that guy but Kolek and OMax stepped in and tried to take over (unsuccessfully). The team's identity is still evolving.

#COLE

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Does it though? Based on these numbers we'd peg Nova as 2 easy wins, but we know they won't be.

Even if that's true l, I still see 8 to 10 freebies based on these numbers alone (obviously you shouldn't just consider early NET numbers)

Also, I don't think Moore is coming back. I'm also not sure Whitmore is going to suit up this season.

The Big East is way down compared to last season.  It's okay to admit you had a bad take

[rocky_warrior]

I'm also not sure Whitmore is going to suit up this season.

Did he play in street clothes against Oklahoma?!?!?

[GoldenEagles03]

Did he play in street clothes against Oklahoma?!?!?

😂

[GoldenEagles03]

Even if that's true l, I still see 8 to 10 freebies based on these numbers alone (obviously you shouldn't just consider early NET numbers)

Also, I don't think Moore is coming back. I'm also not sure Whitmore is going to suit up this season.

The Big East is way down compared to last season.  It's okay to admit you had a bad take

Ok...

10 freebies.  Go .500 in the other 10 and we are 15-5.  That easy huh?

[Jay Bee]

Badger game was a Quad 3 loss. Not good. We can’t afford losing to teams in that quadrant. It’ll be important to protect our home floor in conference play to avoid any more bad losses.

But uw-Madison projects as a Q2 loss

[Newsdreams]

But uw-Madison projects as a Q2 loss

Losing to rodents feels like Q4 loss

[wadesworld]

Losing to rodents feels like Q4 loss

Always.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Did he play in street clothes against Oklahoma?!?!?

Whoops didn't see that he played against Oklahoma.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Ok...

10 freebies.  Go .500 in the other 10 and we are 15-5.  That easy huh?

No. I don't think we will go 15-5. If I was a betting man I would guess 13-7. 12-8 being second most likely.

But again, you were the one who said that the Big East this year is better than last year. That was a bad take. This is the worst Big East since it's inaugural year after reformation

[Jay Bee]

No. I don't think we will go 15-5. If I was a betting man I would guess 13-7. 12-8 being second most likely.

But again, you were the one who said that the Big East this year is better than last year. That was a bad take. This is the worst Big East since it's inaugural year after reformation

Its vs. it’s.

Good news is we have some** big win opportunities (eg, UCONN & Creighton x2 each). Bad news is… I’d probably be ok w going 1-3 in those.

#TBW

[GoldenEagles03]

No. I don't think we will go 15-5. If I was a betting man I would guess 13-7. 12-8 being second most likely.

But again, you were the one who said that the Big East this year is better than last year. That was a bad take. This is the worst Big East since it's inaugural year after reformation

I never said better.  You are just making false statements now.  I said there are less freebie wins.  The league is more slop in the middle which is now like teams 2-10 compared to the typical middle of like 5-9.  More slop doesn't mean better, in fact typically the opposite.

Creighton probably will right the ship and move that to teams 3-10, but point still stands.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I never said better.  You are just making false statements now.  I said there are less freebie wins.  The league is more slop in the middle which is now like teams 2-10 compared to the typical middle of like 5-9.  More slop doesn't mean better, in fact typically the opposite.

Creighton probably will right the ship and move that to teams 3-10, but point still stands.

Freebie wins are bad teams that good teams should win against. There are more of those this season than last season. To say otherwise is a bad take.

[GoldenEagles03]

Freebie wins are bad teams that good teams should win against. There are more of those this season than last season. To say otherwise is a bad take.

That's where we disagree because I'm under the impression that the middle of the pack is larger than it's been in the past meaning teams 3-10 are more similar than different.  So in that grouping of teams, games will likely be toss ups all season.