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Author Topic: Big East Poll , NET Rankings and Team Sheets  (Read 35373 times)

bilsu

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #25 on: December 08, 2022, 06:02:03 AM »
AKA Notre Dame is not a must win game.  Thank you.
Depends on how you look at it.
Lose 7-4 and 10-10 Big East record probably is not good enough for bid.
Win 8-3 and 10-10 Big East record makes us a bubble team.
12-8 Big East record would make Notre Dame game not a must win game.
9-11 Big East record makes Notre Dame game not a must win game. (No bid either way)

The future is unknown, so it is a must win game.

Besides it is important to get the first true road win. Team needs to know it can win on the road.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #26 on: December 08, 2022, 06:26:58 AM »
Depends on how you look at it.
Lose 7-4 and 10-10 Big East record probably is not good enough for bid.
Win 8-3 and 10-10 Big East record makes us a bubble team.
12-8 Big East record would make Notre Dame game not a must win game.
9-11 Big East record makes Notre Dame game not a must win game. (No bid either way)

The future is unknown, so it is a must win game.

Besides it is important to get the first true road win. Team needs to know it can win on the road.

But that isn't a must win game.  Must win, means you can't lose.

If we lose to ND, and somehow go 14-6 in conference play, then the ND game wasn't "must win".

No game before March is "must win".

lawdog77

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #27 on: December 08, 2022, 07:22:31 AM »
Well, hopefully we don't have a must win game until the NCAAT

MUCam

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #28 on: December 08, 2022, 07:48:05 AM »
No game before March is "must win".

False. 97.3% false.

If we are to join Indiana, North Carolina, UCLA and San Francisco in the blue blood territory of being undefeated all season long, which better be everyone's desire and expectation for Marquette basketball, then every single game is a must win.

Wake me up next year, when we start our run again.

To the extent you mean no game before March is a "must win" now that we have already lost and the season is irreparably broken with only the slight consolation prize of maybe making the tournament left, then maybe I agree, thus the adjustment in the 97.3% false figure above.

wadesworld

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #29 on: December 08, 2022, 09:22:07 AM »
Depends on how you look at it.
Lose 7-4 and 10-10 Big East record probably is not good enough for bid.
Win 8-3 and 10-10 Big East record makes us a bubble team.
12-8 Big East record would make Notre Dame game not a must win game.
9-11 Big East record makes Notre Dame game not a must win game. (No bid either way)

The future is unknown, so it is a must win game.

Besides it is important to get the first true road win. Team needs to know it can win on the road.

You just laid out exactly how it's not a must win game.
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TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #30 on: December 08, 2022, 09:34:02 AM »
It's a must win IF we don't want to have to win 11-12 games in Big East play and/or win the BET in order to make the NCAAT. Which of course means that it isn't a true must win, just a conditional one.
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IrwinFletcher

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #31 on: December 08, 2022, 10:32:41 AM »
Depends on how you look at it.
Lose 7-4 and 10-10 Big East record probably is not good enough for bid.
Win 8-3 and 10-10 Big East record makes us a bubble team.
12-8 Big East record would make Notre Dame game not a must win game.
9-11 Big East record makes Notre Dame game not a must win game. (No bid either way)

The future is unknown, so it is a must win game.

Besides it is important to get the first true road win. Team needs to know it can win on the road.

If you lose to ND but win 2 or 3 games against Creighton and UConn, you are OK.

If you beat ND and lose all 8 games against Creighton, UConn, Xavier and Nova, you are likely not OK.

Win totals don't matter as much as who you are beating.

Have a bubble record and NET rating, they will look to see who you beat.  Creighton, UConn and X are much more attractive than a win at ND.

Herman Cain

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #32 on: December 08, 2022, 10:42:20 AM »
Big East NET rankings as of games of December 7, 2022
New Old
2   2   UConn   
31   31   Creighton   
42   38   Marquette   
44   43   Xavier   
58   56   Butler   
60   73   St. John's
122   126   Seton Hall   
128   151   Providence   
151   163   Villanova   
166   150   DePaul   
229   241   Georgetown
Vote for Pedro

BM1090

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #33 on: December 08, 2022, 10:50:19 AM »
I’m a day late, but UW moved into Q2 and Baylor moved into Q1.

Mississippi State and Purdue are still in the top 5.

panda

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #34 on: December 08, 2022, 02:22:57 PM »
Depends on how you look at it.
Lose 7-4 and 10-10 Big East record probably is not good enough for bid.
Win 8-3 and 10-10 Big East record makes us a bubble team.
12-8 Big East record would make Notre Dame game not a must win game.
9-11 Big East record makes Notre Dame game not a must win game. (No bid either way)

The future is unknown, so it is a must win game.

Besides it is important to get the first true road win. Team needs to know it can win on the road.

Is the notre dame game must win or can’t lose ?

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #35 on: December 08, 2022, 02:36:58 PM »
Shaka is 0-2 vs. Wisconsin. Has lost 9 out of the last 10 away from MKE. Yes, this is a must win versus ND.

At some point, the rubber has to hit the road. MU can't keep kicking the can, finding refuge on KPom projections. This game is very winnable, and the team and staff need to find a way to close these slow tempo match-ups.

Juan Anderson's Mixtape

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #36 on: December 08, 2022, 02:40:01 PM »
Is the notre dame game must win or can’t lose ?

Yes

mileskishnish72

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #37 on: December 08, 2022, 02:43:44 PM »
Shaka is 0-2 vs. Wisconsin. Has lost 9 out of the last 10 away from MKE. Yes, this is a must win versus ND.

At some point, the rubber has to hit the road. MU can't keep kicking the can, finding refuge on KPom projections. This game is very winnable, and the team and staff need to find a way to close these slow tempo match-ups.

Amen.

Vander Blue Man Group

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #38 on: December 08, 2022, 02:49:30 PM »
Shaka is 0-2 vs. Wisconsin. Has lost 9 out of the last 10 away from MKE. Yes, this is a must win versus ND.

At some point, the rubber has to hit the road. MU can't keep kicking the can, finding refuge on KPom projections. This game is very winnable, and the team and staff need to find a way to close these slow tempo match-ups.

I guess we can all stop watching for the rest of the season if they lose Sunday since there will be no chance of making the tourney, right?

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #39 on: December 08, 2022, 03:59:02 PM »
I guess we can all stop watching for the rest of the season if they lose Sunday since there will be no chance of making the tourney, right?

RGV

bilsu

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #40 on: December 08, 2022, 04:09:21 PM »
If you lose to ND but win 2 or 3 games against Creighton and UConn, you are OK.

If you beat ND and lose all 8 games against Creighton, UConn, Xavier and Nova, you are likely not OK.

Win totals don't matter as much as who you are beating.

Have a bubble record and NET rating, they will look to see who you beat.  Creighton, UConn and X are much more attractive than a win at ND.
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We need road wins and the first one is hard to get.

Newsdreams

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #41 on: December 08, 2022, 04:53:08 PM »
Shaka is 0-2 vs. Wisconsin. Has lost 9 out of the last 10 away from MKE. Yes, this is a must win versus ND.

At some point, the rubber has to hit the road. MU can't keep kicking the can, finding refuge on KPom projections. This game is very winnable, and the team and staff need to find a way to close these slow tempo match-ups.
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jfp61

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #42 on: December 08, 2022, 05:04:25 PM »
Shaka is 0-2 vs. Wisconsin. Has lost 9 out of the last 10 away from MKE. Yes, this is a must win versus ND.

At some point, the rubber has to hit the road. MU can't keep kicking the can, finding refuge on KPom projections. This game is very winnable, and the team and staff need to find a way to close these slow tempo match-ups.

100% true Notre Dame is winnable.

But.... That stat is a purposeful dilution of data in a small sample size sport to propagate some type of agenda to make this game seem bigger than it is. Shaka was 6-3 in games "away from MKE" before that ten game stretch.  7-12 away from home is a perfectly reasonable record.

Additionally, this years team is 1-2 away from home, but the 2 loses are against teams who are Top 5 in the NET. Those loses were by a combined total of 8 points.

Lastly, the notion that tempo plays a roll in wins or losses is ridiculous. In 2021-22, Marquette's Tempo was slower in wins than it was in losses. And it was within 0.1 when you turn Creighton's OT game into a 68 possession game.

The reason why Marquette's 2022-23 loses are in slow games is because the good teams we have played, play slow. No other reason. If we played @Arizona and against Illinois and lost would you say its because "Arizona and Illinois play fast"?
« Last Edit: December 08, 2022, 05:53:34 PM by jfp61 »

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #43 on: December 08, 2022, 06:16:14 PM »
100% true Notre Dame is winnable.

But.... That stat is a purposeful dilution of data in a small sample size sport to propagate some type of agenda to make this game seem bigger than it is. Shaka was 6-3 in games "away from MKE" before that ten game stretch.  7-12 away from home is a perfectly reasonable record.

Additionally, this years team is 1-2 away from home, but the 2 loses are against teams who are Top 5 in the NET. Those loses were by a combined total of 8 points.

Lastly, the notion that tempo plays a roll in wins or losses is ridiculous. In 2021-22, Marquette's Tempo was slower in wins than it was in losses. And it was within 0.1 when you turn Creighton's OT game into a 68 possession game.

The reason why Marquette's 2022-23 loses are in slow games is because the good teams we have played, play slow. No other reason. If we played @Arizona and against Illinois and lost would you say its because "Arizona and Illinois play fast"?

If tempo doesn't matter then why is Shaka and Nevada Smith predicating it in their offensively philosophy? And trying to limit it defensively? Odd observation if I read it right.

As to my agenda it's the same as other coaches once MU made it through the Big East the first time:  SLOOOW MU down and make them play in the half court. Shaka's counter jab is to do the opposite (worked vs GT and Baylor).

With no yet established Alphas (Kam getting close), MU needs to win these close away games, not go 1-9.  For the record, I am a COLE knowing full well this saw-toothed start was to be expected.  However, Scoop making excuses before this game is an interesting take from the Intelligencia. It's always attack the poster here versus understanding what opposing coaches are trying to do.

jfp61

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #44 on: December 08, 2022, 07:54:36 PM »
If tempo doesn't matter then why is Shaka and Nevada Smith predicating it in their offensively philosophy? And trying to limit it defensively? Odd observation if I read it right.

As to my agenda it's the same as other coaches once MU made it through the Big East the first time:  SLOOOW MU down and make them play in the half court. Shaka's counter jab is to do the opposite (worked vs GT and Baylor).

With no yet established Alphas (Kam getting close), MU needs to win these close away games, not go 1-9.  For the record, I am a COLE knowing full well this saw-toothed start was to be expected.  However, Scoop making excuses before this game is an interesting take from the Intelligencia. It's always attack the poster here versus understanding what opposing coaches are trying to do.

Its not that tempo doesn’t matter, but tempo is not outcome determinative. Of course, on offense if you can get a shot early in the clock, usually the first 6 seconds, your efficiency on that shot is higher. Part of that is the simple notion that “fast break dunks are good” or an “open shot is a good shot”.   And then the efficiency dips to a near constant level for the rest of the shot clock with a small uptick around 5 seconds left on the clock. (teams stop playing D late and the shot isn’t rushed at the buzzer).

But the total game tempo has little to no relative correlation as to the results of Marquette Games, these are different things. Tempo is just a means to efficiency.

Purdue didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got higher quality shots. Edey made Tyler and Oso take runners and he got dunks and layups himself. Marquette out shot them 72 to 56, but MU took 25 midrange shots.

Mississippi St. didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got a higher volume of shots grabbing boards and Marquette fouled them on their attempts.

Wisconsin didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because, despite taking slightly worse shots than Marquette, Chucky just kept making shots.

Saying “tempo” plays a role in the outcome is just inaccurate. When Marquette beat Providence at home or won @Nova last year no one would say “Marquette won because Providence played slow”.

There is not one example from last year where Marquette played a Big East Opponent for a second time and said Opponent was able to both slow Marquette down and flip the outcome of the first game. Anytime MU was slowed down from one game to the next the results were the same.

As for having an Alpha, I am of the opinion it just doesn’t 100% matter. Having an Alpha vs playing like a team, or Iso Scoring vs assisted scoring, is additionally just another means to efficiency. Now the normative approach to basketball is to have an Alpha. It gets engrained when we are kids. So of course every team wants an Alpha, but you want to be able to do both.

I think this team can do both in some capacity. Our offense so far this year is just better than last years. Also, Kam, Joplin, and this years Kolek might be more creative than Morsell, Lewis, and last years Kolek. They shoot better from three, from two, and they find the open man better (maybe not Joplin for this one).

Again, noting the 1-9 away from home in their last ten is ridiculous. This year’s team is 1-2 away from home with two top 5 NET losses. Last years team was 6-10 and finished 0-7 in their last 7. (part of that is the reason I would say this years team might have more alphas.)

As for Notre Dame themselves, why do they play slow. They play slow because they have too. They play 6 guys. They take their time on offense and defense just to be able to play for the entire game.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #45 on: December 08, 2022, 08:24:44 PM »
Its not that tempo doesn’t matter, but tempo is not outcome determinative. Of course, on offense if you can get a shot early in the clock, usually the first 6 seconds, your efficiency on that shot is higher. Part of that is the simple notion that “fast break dunks are good” or an “open shot is a good shot”.   And then the efficiency dips to a near constant level for the rest of the shot clock with a small uptick around 5 seconds left on the clock. (teams stop playing D late and the shot isn’t rushed at the buzzer).

But the total game tempo has little to no relative correlation as to the results of Marquette Games, these are different things. Tempo is just a means to efficiency.

Purdue didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got higher quality shots. Edey made Tyler and Oso take runners and he got dunks and layups himself. Marquette out shot them 72 to 56, but MU took 25 midrange shots.

Mississippi St. didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got a higher volume of shots grabbing boards and Marquette fouled them on their attempts.

Wisconsin didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because, despite taking slightly worse shots than Marquette, Chucky just kept making shots.

Saying “tempo” plays a role in the outcome is just inaccurate. When Marquette beat Providence at home or won @Nova last year no one would say “Marquette won because Providence played slow”.

There is not one example from last year where Marquette played a Big East Opponent for a second time and said Opponent was able to both slow Marquette down and flip the outcome of the first game. Anytime MU was slowed down from one game to the next the results were the same.

As for having an Alpha, I am of the opinion it just doesn’t 100% matter. Having an Alpha vs playing like a team, or Iso Scoring vs assisted scoring, is additionally just another means to efficiency. Now the normative approach to basketball is to have an Alpha. It gets engrained when we are kids. So of course every team wants an Alpha, but you want to be able to do both.

I think this team can do both in some capacity. Our offense so far this year is just better than last years. Also, Kam, Joplin, and this years Kolek might be more creative than Morsell, Lewis, and last years Kolek. They shoot better from three, from two, and they find the open man better (maybe not Joplin for this one).

Again, noting the 1-9 away from home in their last ten is ridiculous. This year’s team is 1-2 away from home with two top 5 NET losses. Last years team was 6-10 and finished 0-7 in their last 7. (part of that is the reason I would say this years team might have more alphas.)

As for Notre Dame themselves, why do they play slow. They play slow because they have too. They play 6 guys. They take their time on offense and defense just to be able to play for the entire game.

Good board discussion. Thanks for the in-depth response as that adds to the discussion.

That said, I was reacting to below and we will continue to disagree. I hope I am proven wrong Sunday.

Quote
Lastly, the notion that tempo plays a roll in wins or losses is ridiculous.

bilsu

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #46 on: December 09, 2022, 12:57:57 AM »
But that isn't a must win game.  Must win, means you can't lose.

If we lose to ND, and somehow go 14-6 in conference play, then the ND game wasn't "must win".

No game before March is "must win".
It may be irrelevant to actually making NCAA tournament. Assuming we get a bid either way it is a must win for seeding. The ultimate goal is to be relevant again in the NCAA tournament, which means actually winning games in tournament. Seeding matters.

Hards Alumni

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #47 on: December 09, 2022, 06:32:13 AM »
It may be irrelevant to actually making NCAA tournament. Assuming we get a bid either way it is a must win for seeding. The ultimate goal is to be relevant again in the NCAA tournament, which means actually winning games in tournament. Seeding matters.

I'm going to buy you a slide rule.

genious expert

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #48 on: December 09, 2022, 07:27:13 AM »
Its not that tempo doesn’t matter, but tempo is not outcome determinative. Of course, on offense if you can get a shot early in the clock, usually the first 6 seconds, your efficiency on that shot is higher. Part of that is the simple notion that “fast break dunks are good” or an “open shot is a good shot”.   And then the efficiency dips to a near constant level for the rest of the shot clock with a small uptick around 5 seconds left on the clock. (teams stop playing D late and the shot isn’t rushed at the buzzer).

But the total game tempo has little to no relative correlation as to the results of Marquette Games, these are different things. Tempo is just a means to efficiency.

Purdue didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got higher quality shots. Edey made Tyler and Oso take runners and he got dunks and layups himself. Marquette out shot them 72 to 56, but MU took 25 midrange shots.

Mississippi St. didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because they got a higher volume of shots grabbing boards and Marquette fouled them on their attempts.

Wisconsin didn’t beat Marquette because they forced them to play slow. They beat Marquette because, despite taking slightly worse shots than Marquette, Chucky just kept making shots.

Saying “tempo” plays a role in the outcome is just inaccurate. When Marquette beat Providence at home or won @Nova last year no one would say “Marquette won because Providence played slow”.

There is not one example from last year where Marquette played a Big East Opponent for a second time and said Opponent was able to both slow Marquette down and flip the outcome of the first game. Anytime MU was slowed down from one game to the next the results were the same.

As for having an Alpha, I am of the opinion it just doesn’t 100% matter. Having an Alpha vs playing like a team, or Iso Scoring vs assisted scoring, is additionally just another means to efficiency. Now the normative approach to basketball is to have an Alpha. It gets engrained when we are kids. So of course every team wants an Alpha, but you want to be able to do both.

I think this team can do both in some capacity. Our offense so far this year is just better than last years. Also, Kam, Joplin, and this years Kolek might be more creative than Morsell, Lewis, and last years Kolek. They shoot better from three, from two, and they find the open man better (maybe not Joplin for this one).

Again, noting the 1-9 away from home in their last ten is ridiculous. This year’s team is 1-2 away from home with two top 5 NET losses. Last years team was 6-10 and finished 0-7 in their last 7. (part of that is the reason I would say this years team might have more alphas.)

As for Notre Dame themselves, why do they play slow. They play slow because they have too. They play 6 guys. They take their time on offense and defense just to be able to play for the entire game.

See attached

MU82

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Re: Big East Poll and NET Rankings
« Reply #49 on: December 09, 2022, 07:52:10 AM »
Shaka is 0-2 vs. Wisconsin. Has lost 9 out of the last 10 away from MKE. Yes, this is a must win versus ND.

At some point, the rubber has to hit the road. MU can't keep kicking the can, finding refuge on KPom projections. This game is very winnable, and the team and staff need to find a way to close these slow tempo match-ups.

The whole "must win" thing ends up feeding a war of semantics, and I'll let others continue to have fun with that.

Otherwise, I agree with what you're saying here.
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