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Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview  (Read 3687 times)

brewcity77

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[Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« on: October 19, 2022, 07:11:35 AM »
It was an interesting scheduling decision to what look like the clear two best teams in Fort Myers on the same side of the bracket, but Marquette will open their exempt tournament with another team that could be in the mix for an NCAA bid come March. Cracked Sidewalks looks at Chris Jans and his Bulldogs.

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/10/mississippi-state-preview-2022-23.html?m=1
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Shooter McGavin

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2022, 07:48:11 AM »
Thanks Brew.  Reminds me of our team with all of its “ifs”. 

That Maui reference was a good one.  I remember watching that Butler game at a bar with non-Marquette people and it killed me.  Lots of laughs at my expense.  It was great to go elite that year and watch the sweet sixteen against Miami with the same jackasses.

wadesworld

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2022, 08:35:00 AM »
It was an interesting scheduling decision to what look like the clear two best teams in Fort Myers on the same side of the bracket, but Marquette will open their exempt tournament with another team that could be in the mix for an NCAA bid come March. Cracked Sidewalks looks at Chris Jans and his Bulldogs.

https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/10/mississippi-state-preview-2022-23.html?m=1

KenPom has this matchup as the best team vs. the 3rd best team and the other side of the bracket the 2nd best vs. the 4th best.
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brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2022, 08:51:09 AM »
KenPom has this matchup as the best team vs. the 3rd best team and the other side of the bracket the 2nd best vs. the 4th best.

Pomeroy is a big outlier on Utah. Their roster is just not very good. They are 90 in Haslametrics, 104 in EvanMiya, and 131 in T-Rank.

Marquette, conversely, is 75, 70, & 53 in those systems. Regardless of your one data point, the metric average has Marquette at 68.5 and Utah at 99.3. Safe to say there's a strong consensus that we're the better team.
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brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2022, 06:39:58 AM »
KenPom has this matchup as the best team vs. the 3rd best team and the other side of the bracket the 2nd best vs. the 4th best.

I asked Pomeroy about this. He said the likely reason his model has Utah where they are at is because they finished 44th two years ago. From that team, only Brandon Carlson is back. So players like Timmy Allen (Texas), Pelle Larsson (Arizona), and Alfonso Plummer (graduated from Illinois) are still factoring into their 2022-23 ranking.

Considering that recent program continuity had Utah at #44 while Wojo's last team finished #83 it makes his model easier to understand, but it does make me wonder if he's giving too much credit to those past performances through coaching changes and roster turnover.
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muwarrior69

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2022, 06:39:18 PM »
Not sure how many games Mississippi State has played and its been a month since the preview has been discussed so I was wondering if anything has changed looking forward to Monday's game. You stat guys know better than me. I thought we should have won that game against Purdue as we played really well. Do we match up better to Mississippi State than Purdue?

brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2022, 06:54:33 PM »
I'll update the preview for game day. Haven't got there yet.
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GoldenEagles03

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2022, 10:01:34 PM »
Matchup is probably worse for Marquette than Purdue was based on film I've seen. Not sure what the calculators will say.

Mississippi State is old, 8 Seniors, and built like a football team.  It is a neutral game rather than away which could obviously make a world of a difference and Mississippi State hasn't played anyone that has challenged them yet to this point.

Haslametrics has Mississippi State the favorite at 73.24 to 67.77

I think Mississippi State probably pulls out the win, but it would potentially be a huge swing game for Marquette's season should they find a way to pull off the upset.
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brewcity77

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2022, 07:09:02 AM »
It's a style disparity. Both teams want to apply pressure, but Marquette wants to get up and down the floor and shoot threes, MSU wants to grind the game to a halt and pound teams inside. I could see Marquette breaking out more zone because this is a team you would love to get into a shooting contest with, especially if Jones and Jop can get cooking. MSU's defense has been dominant. Absolutely dominant, but they also haven't played anyone yet. Still a bit irritated this is the Fort Myers opener, because it is very clearly the two best teams in the field.
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Uncle Rico

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2022, 07:16:52 AM »
If Marquette loses this game, Shaka is officially on the hot seat
Tis a shame, 'tis a rotton shame, for if ye can enjoy the walkin’ ye can probably enjoy the other times in yer life when ve're in between. And that's most o' the time; wouldn't ye say?

withoutbias

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2022, 07:26:32 AM »
At least we know we’ll be getting one win next week then.

I’m not sure we want to get into a shooting contest with anyone.

panda

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2022, 08:29:05 AM »
Will be a much different challenge than Purdue. I think that Mississippi state is better than Purdue on a neutral floor.

Tolu smith is one of the better big men in the country and is a much more dynamic scorer than edey. Long on the wing and they have tons of guard depth who can get after it defensively.

I think we win if we slow down Tolu. Problem is they have much better secondary options than Purdue which will present a greater challenge.

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Newsdreams

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2022, 10:15:43 AM »
It's a style disparity. Both teams want to apply pressure, but Marquette wants to get up and down the floor and shoot threes, MSU wants to grind the game to a halt and pound teams inside. I could see Marquette breaking out more zone because this is a team you would love to get into a shooting contest with, especially if Jones and Jop can get cooking. MSU's defense has been dominant. Absolutely dominant, but they also haven't played anyone yet. Still a bit irritated this is the Fort Myers opener, because it is very clearly the two best teams in the field.
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Newsdreams

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2022, 10:17:25 AM »
If Marquette loses this game, Shaka is officially on the hot seat
I've heard they will start a go fund me to buyout his contract if we lose.
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rocket surgeon

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2022, 10:29:16 AM »
it's all going to come down to who wants it more and who can put the ball in the hole.  hopefully we come out with our game faces on and take out our frustrations in the sunshine state and come home with the "W"
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Uncle Rico

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2022, 10:41:53 AM »
it's all going to come down to who wants it more and who can put the ball in the hole.  hopefully we come out with our game faces on and take out our frustrations in the sunshine state and come home with the "W"

Lol
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GoldenEagles03

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2022, 12:53:39 PM »
Mississippi State is 27 in KenPom

51st - Offense
15th - Defense

I liked the odds better against Purdue, but that's why you play the games!
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GoldenEagles03

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #17 on: November 19, 2022, 01:17:57 PM »
https://youtu.be/XVdJcf4nf14

Brief look at our next opponent from their last game against South Dakota.
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GoldenEagles03

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2022, 07:18:31 PM »
Mississippi State -3.5

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dgies9156

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #19 on: November 21, 2022, 07:54:04 AM »
We shall see.


Daniel

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #21 on: November 21, 2022, 08:57:14 AM »
If Kam and Jop hit threes and we get a few from others we might pull this out.  Go Marquette!

GoldenEagles03

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2022, 09:12:27 AM »
I don't know that this team has a shot against a top 15 defense, but who knows.

Huge resume game. Oso will have his work cut out for him yet again.

If we can generate open looks, just have to make more of them than we did on Tuesday against Purdue and see what happens. As Shaka would say...find a way.
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rocky_warrior

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2022, 09:43:49 AM »
I don't know that this team has a shot against a top 15 defense, but who knows.

Yeah, I don't think our HC offense is advanced enough to score a bunch against them, so I think I'm hoping we can turn them over and score without facing the defense.

GoldenEagles03

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #24 on: November 21, 2022, 10:23:31 AM »
Yeah, I don't think our HC offense is advanced enough to score a bunch against them, so I think I'm hoping we can turn them over and score without facing the defense.

This Marquette team is already written off by most.  Certain media listing games like Duke/Bellarmine and Arkansas/Louisville as games to watch today while leaving out Marquette/MSU.

The Big East media also has Marquette as an afterthought. Today is the perfect day to change the narrative. Winning this event would be massive for this season.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2022, 12:00:23 PM by GoldenEagles03 »
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The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #25 on: November 21, 2022, 10:29:25 AM »
This Marquette team is already written off by most.  Certain media listing games like Duke/Bellarmine and Arkansas/Louisville as games to watch today while leaving out Marquette/MSU.

The Big East media is also has Marquette as an afterthought. Today is the perfect day to change the narrative. Winning this event would be massive for this season.


It would be fantastic for Marquette to win this, but it is a small tournament made up of four pretty average teams - at best. I don't think any narrative is going to significantly change based on this.
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DoctorV

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #26 on: November 21, 2022, 10:58:56 AM »

It would be fantastic for Marquette to win this, but it is a small tournament made up of four pretty average teams - at best. I don't think any narrative is going to significantly change based on this.

It would change the narrative of scoop doe, wouldn’t it?

TAMU, Knower of Ball

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #27 on: November 21, 2022, 11:00:11 AM »
Caught the Mississippi State/South Dakota game. MSST looked very good though it was one of those games where it was hard to make good judgement due to the poor play of the opponent (but that's what great teams do, dominate bad opponents). MSST switches on everything defensively. They don't care if 6'1" Shakeel Moore ends up guarding the 5 or if 265lb William McNair ends up guarding the 1. That's how strong and athletic they are on defense. I was impressed by Tolu Smith's ability to guard in space though he did pick up a couple of tick tack fouls away from the basket trying guard smaller players. I think that should be a point of attack to try and get Smith in foul trouble early.

They forced a lot of turnovers but it felt like that was mostly incompetence by the Coyotes. South Dakota couldn't get anything inside. MSST's length kept them from driving and any coyotes that did get through were erased by a help defender. The only success the Coyotes found was when they could get quick passes around the perimeter until it found an open guy but MSST's length makes that hard to do. The Bulldogs were surprisingly poor on transition D, they often didn't know where to go and it led to a lot of open shots for SD (that they mostly missed).

Offensively, MSST either dumped it inside for a postup or held the ball and tried to go 1 on 1 with 10 seconds or left on the clock. Sometimes they would kick out to an open shooter who would usually miss. They are very agressive on the offensive glass. If we can gang rebound, there will be transition opportunities going the other way. Key is going to be making Tolu Smith catch the ball away from the basket. He has some face up game but not much. If he catches the ball within 8 feet, it's almost an auto bucket

I like that this is their first game away from home and that we are the first real team that they have faced. I think that can help give us an edge. While all of their games ended with comfortable margins, they were losing in the second half to both TAMU Corpus Christi and Akron. They responded in both cases with massive runs to put the game out of reach but it show some vulnerability.
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The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #28 on: November 21, 2022, 11:01:44 AM »
It would change the narrative of scoop doe, wouldn’t it?

Well yes...and I guess that counts more than anything!
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Jay Bee

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Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] Mississippi State Preview
« Reply #29 on: November 21, 2022, 12:09:56 PM »
Miss St has played a lot of their bench… nobody has gotten consistent big minutes. Hopefully there is also a factor of us having had guys play more minutes than them.  Come out strong, run these f%oker’s and bring home the victory
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