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Author Topic: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB  (Read 10736 times)

MU82

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #150 on: May 16, 2022, 07:02:59 AM »
From the Raleigh newspaper:

Mike Brey, the Notre Dame head coach, said last week that he has found it “really intriguing” to follow the effects of NIL, particularly when it comes to keeping players in college who otherwise would’ve likely departed. As a result, he said, college basketball has become “older, and better.”

For players on the margin of the NBA draft, Brey said, “instead of saying, ‘I’m getting old, I might as well go and at least go to Europe and start to make money,’ they go, ‘Well, wait a minute.’ And to the credit of their universities and their coaches, they say, ‘Well here’s what we can put together for you,’ and I can come back one more year.”

He added: “Like, this is the world we’re in. Last time I checked, you make pretty good money. So everybody should shut up and adjust. You know, that’s just the world we’re in now. And, you know, I’m not in it as long as the Josh Pastners and some of these young guys. So good luck to y’all — I’ll be back in five years to see what’s up. Just remember, man, we’ve had it pretty good here.”
"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

lawdog77

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #151 on: May 16, 2022, 07:16:14 AM »
From the Raleigh newspaper:
For players on the margin of the NBA draft, Brey said, “instead of saying, ‘I’m getting old, I might as well go and at least go to Europe and start to make money,’ they go, ‘Well, wait a minute.’ And to the credit of their universities and their coaches, they say, ‘Well here’s what we can put together for you,’ and I can come back one more year.”
How many underclassmen actually forgo eligibility to play in Europe?

MU82

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #152 on: May 16, 2022, 07:30:19 AM »
How many underclassmen actually forgo eligibility to play in Europe?

The article made a point of saying that, without NIL, Bacot and Love would have left UNC to try to make the NBA but could have ended up in Europe or elsewhere a year or three down the line.

Without the promise of NIL deals, both likely would’ve found it easier to leave to begin their professional careers.

So I'm not sure how many guys, pre-NIL, were saying, "I'm leaving to go to Europe." They were saying, "I'm leaving to start my pro career even though I probably won't get drafted. I'm confident I can make it in the NBA, but I have options if I can't."

From Marquette's recent history: DJ Carton and Vander Blue.
"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

brewcity77

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #153 on: May 16, 2022, 08:01:04 AM »
From the Raleigh newspaper:

Mike Brey, the Notre Dame head coach, said last week that he has found it “really intriguing” to follow the effects of NIL, particularly when it comes to keeping players in college who otherwise would’ve likely departed. As a result, he said, college basketball has become “older, and better.”

For players on the margin of the NBA draft, Brey said, “instead of saying, ‘I’m getting old, I might as well go and at least go to Europe and start to make money,’ they go, ‘Well, wait a minute.’ And to the credit of their universities and their coaches, they say, ‘Well here’s what we can put together for you,’ and I can come back one more year.”

He added: “Like, this is the world we’re in. Last time I checked, you make pretty good money. So everybody should shut up and adjust. You know, that’s just the world we’re in now. And, you know, I’m not in it as long as the Josh Pastners and some of these young guys. So good luck to y’all — I’ll be back in five years to see what’s up. Just remember, man, we’ve had it pretty good here.”

Irritating that the Notre Dame coach has been so consistently right of late.
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The Equalizer

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #154 on: May 16, 2022, 08:40:07 AM »
You're ignoring everything outside the tournament, the fact that the later round ncaat  units are worth exponentially more,  and the massive costs they would have to take on without the NCAA bureaucracy.

First, units aren't worth "exponentially" more in later rounds, they're worth exactly the same. A team that makes it to the final four earns more revenue because they earn more units to get there, not because the units themselves are more valuable. And I accounted for that by breaking down the units earned round by round.  The P5 received 29 of the 68 first round units (43%), but 3 of the 4 in the final four (75%).  132 total units were awarded, and I accounted for all of them.  The P5 earned 70, or 53%.

Second, the "massive costs" you refer to are today covered out of the 40% of the total revenue that the NCAA takes off the top. The NCAA's cut not only covers the cost of putting on the tournament but also 90% of the overall cost of the NCAA bureaucracy. 


MU82

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #155 on: May 16, 2022, 09:33:58 AM »
Irritating that the Notre Dame coach has been so consistently right of late.

He'll definitely be right when he says a few months from now: "We really had no chance to win. Marquette's just too much better than us."
"We understand that for some reason, to people with money, to people who fund political campaigns, guns are more important than children. Today we stand for Lexi, and as her voice, we demand action."

-- Kimberly Rubio, whose daughter Lexi was among 19 schoolchildren slaughtered in Uvalde, Texas

TAMU Eagle

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #156 on: May 16, 2022, 10:19:09 AM »
First, units aren't worth "exponentially" more in later rounds, they're worth exactly the same. A team that makes it to the final four earns more revenue because they earn more units to get there, not because the units themselves are more valuable. And I accounted for that by breaking down the units earned round by round.  The P5 received 29 of the 68 first round units (43%), but 3 of the 4 in the final four (75%).  132 total units were awarded, and I accounted for all of them.  The P5 earned 70, or 53%.

I'm aware that each individual one is worth the same but every time you earn one, it comes with the ability to earn another (except the championship round obviously) which is what makes them worth exponentially more not to mention all the ancillary benefits of advancing in the tournament.

In 2021, here's the breakdown for what P5 vs. non-P5 earned from tourney units:
153,736,296 (58%)
113,279,376 (42%)

In 2022, your numbers were slightly off, the P5 earned 71 of the 132 units but it only makes a 1% difference.

You also have to factor that there are only 67 P5 teams (69 after the B12 adds 4 from AAC/BYU). So one of two things will need to happen, either everyone gets into the postseason, which I think would have a significant impact on interest and revenue, or they have to shrink the tournament to 32, meaning over half of the units go away. I think they will need at least 130 teams to keep March Madness as lucrative as it is now.

Second, the "massive costs" you refer to are today covered out of the 40% of the total revenue that the NCAA takes off the top. The NCAA's cut not only covers the cost of putting on the tournament but also 90% of the overall cost of the NCAA bureaucracy.

Again, I'm aware. But how you presented your post was that the P5 would get to pocket that 40% as revenue. What will actually happen is that they will spend most if not all of it taking on all the costs currently taken on by the NCAA.

Change averse organizations tend not to make paradigm shifting changes as long as the status quo currently benefits them. The P5 have a vast majority of the wealth and power at the moment so I don't see them breaking off any time soon. I can certainly see more negotiations to give them even more power within the NCAA. If they do break off, I think it will be in football only. If they break off in more than football, I think the Big East and others get taken along in basketball.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

brewcity77

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #157 on: May 16, 2022, 02:34:42 PM »
So one of two things will need to happen, either everyone gets into the postseason, which I think would have a significant impact on interest and revenue, or they have to shrink the tournament to 32, meaning over half of the units go away. I think they will need at least 130 teams to keep March Madness as lucrative as it is now.

In 2021, the "P5" schools earned 34 NCAA bids. So under this format, they could exclude the rest of the country and STILL earn fewer bids than they get with the current field.  ;D
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The Equalizer

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #158 on: May 16, 2022, 07:53:49 PM »
In 2021, here's the breakdown for what P5 vs. non-P5 earned from tourney units:
153,736,296 (58%)
113,279,376 (42%)

In 2022, your numbers were slightly off, the P5 earned 71 of the 132 units but it only makes a 1% difference.

So anywhere from 53% to 58% of revenue paid to teams goes to the P5, but that's only after the NCAA takes it's cut off the top.  After the NCAA cut, the P5 nets only about 1/3 of the tournament revenue.

You also have to factor that there are only 67 P5 teams (69 after the B12 adds 4 from AAC/BYU). So one of two things will need to happen, either everyone gets into the postseason, which I think would have a significant impact on interest and revenue, or they have to shrink the tournament to 32, meaning over half of the units go away. I think they will need at least 130 teams to keep March Madness as lucrative as it is now.

You're stuck in a paradigm that says we have to have 64 or 68 teams in the tournament to be successful.

The P5 could break away and run a tournament of any size.  And as long as they net more than the $153 million they're getting in the status quo, it's better for them. 

Again, I'm aware. But how you presented your post was that the P5 would get to pocket that 40% as revenue. What will actually happen is that they will spend most if not all of it taking on all the costs currently taken on by the NCAA.

You're vastly overestimating the money the NCAA spends to host the tournament. I haven't yet found a more recent set of numbers, but in 2019, the revenue from the men's tournament was $864 million, and the expense was only $28 million.
https://theathletic.com/news/ncaa-document-highlights-mens-womens-tournament-budget-and-income-disparities/JCHqSquvJgwr/

So lets assume for the sake of argument that the P5 wanted to run their own 32-team tournament. 

And let's even say that the rights payments are cut fully in half, from $864 to $432 million/year. After taking out $28 million in expenses, that's about $400 million to split between the 5 leagues / 32 teams. 

$400 million is more than $153 million, and probably by enough of a margin to get even the most change-averse organization moving quickly.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #159 on: May 16, 2022, 08:15:05 PM »
So anywhere from 53% to 58% of revenue paid to teams goes to the P5, but that's only after the NCAA takes it's cut off the top.  After the NCAA cut, the P5 nets only about 1/3 of the tournament revenue.

You're stuck in a paradigm that says we have to have 64 or 68 teams in the tournament to be successful.

The P5 could break away and run a tournament of any size.  And as long as they net more than the $153 million they're getting in the status quo, it's better for them. 

You're vastly overestimating the money the NCAA spends to host the tournament. I haven't yet found a more recent set of numbers, but in 2019, the revenue from the men's tournament was $864 million, and the expense was only $28 million.
https://theathletic.com/news/ncaa-document-highlights-mens-womens-tournament-budget-and-income-disparities/JCHqSquvJgwr/

So lets assume for the sake of argument that the P5 wanted to run their own 32-team tournament. 

And let's even say that the rights payments are cut fully in half, from $864 to $432 million/year. After taking out $28 million in expenses, that's about $400 million to split between the 5 leagues / 32 teams. 

$400 million is more than $153 million, and probably by enough of a margin to get even the most change-averse organization moving quickly.

The cost of running the tournament is only 28 million.  Now do the cost of everything else the NCAA currently does that the P5 would have to take on. I don't know why you are only focused on the tournament. It's not like they are going to only break off for postseason play.

Also the rights payments would be cut by more than 50%. The first round is more than 50% of the games and I think it's a safe bet that the format change would cause a loss in viewership.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2022, 08:28:48 PM by TAMU Eagle »
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lawdog77

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #160 on: May 17, 2022, 04:43:58 AM »
The cost of running the tournament is only 28 million.  Now do the cost of everything else the NCAA currently does that the P5 would have to take on. I don't know why you are only focused on the tournament. It's not like they are going to only break off for postseason play.

Also the rights payments would be cut by more than 50%. The first round is more than 50% of the games and I think it's a safe bet that the format change would cause a loss in viewership.
Do you think the regular season tv contract money would increase if the non conference games were strictly against p5 teams instead of games against buy teams? Would that make up the difference in revenue?

TAMU Eagle

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #161 on: May 17, 2022, 06:32:50 AM »
Do you think the regular season tv contract money would increase if the non conference games were strictly against p5 teams instead of games against buy teams? Would that make up the difference in revenue?

No. If that was the case school's would already do that. Instead,  schools schedule buy games for budgeting purposes. Rando p5 teams playing each other in the regular season  in basketball also doesn't draw many more eyeballs than rando p5 teams playing buy games. It would make a difference in football
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
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brewcity77

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #162 on: May 17, 2022, 08:41:37 AM »
No. If that was the case school's would already do that. Instead,  schools schedule buy games for budgeting purposes. Rando p5 teams playing each other in the regular season  in basketball also doesn't draw many more eyeballs than rando p5 teams playing buy games. It would make a difference in football

There are numerous advantages to those buy games and the reason they pay tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars to play them. Selling season ticket packages is part, and as you note people aren't making time to watch CBB in November and December when football is on pretty much every night. But there's also the simple win/loss factor. Every year we hear complaints about all the mediocre high-majors that make the field. Teams that are 19-15, 18-13, or some similarly mediocre record.

If it's all high-majors playing each other, then those 70 or so teams will have an average record of .500 because they only play each other. So in virtually every year, with a 32-team field, you'd be giving at-large bids to .500 teams or teams a game over, and in some years at-large bids to teams with losing records. Fattening up those records with cupcakes helps convince people the field is that much stronger. While you would only have high-majors, there would be strong sentiment that the field was actually weaker because the teams that were included had worse records and the teams that were excluded would have teams legitimately better than the ones in the field.
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The Equalizer

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #163 on: May 17, 2022, 08:56:05 AM »
The cost of running the tournament is only 28 million.  Now do the cost of everything else the NCAA currently does that the P5 would have to take on. I don't know why you are only focused on the tournament. It's not like they are going to only break off for postseason play.

You might have a point if you at least tried to be realistic.  Clearly, the P5 would lose much of what the NCAA does starting wtih anything that supports 27 of 32 current conferences.  Plus they would no longer pay for 100% of what is spent on D2 and D3.   Maybe they have to pick up 10% of what the NCAA spends today.

If you want to argue about whether it's 8% or 10% or 12%, go ahead.  It's nowhere near the "cost of everything the NCAA currently does." 

Also the rights payments would be cut by more than 50%. The first round is more than 50% of the games and I think it's a safe bet that the format change would cause a loss in viewership.

The rights wouldn't be cut anywhere close to 50%. There are 32 first-round games and 31 subsequent games.  While you'd lose 50.8% of the games if you eliminate the first round, you're maybe losing only 1/3 of the total audience, so those later round games are far more valuable.

The highest-rated first-round game drew just 5.5 million viewers. The highest-rated 2nd-round game drew 11.2 million.  The average Sweet 16 game drew more than 9 million and the final four 17/18 million each game.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #164 on: May 17, 2022, 09:35:34 AM »
You might have a point if you at least tried to be realistic.  Clearly, the P5 would lose much of what the NCAA does starting wtih anything that supports 27 of 32 current conferences.  Plus they would no longer pay for 100% of what is spent on D2 and D3.   Maybe they have to pick up 10% of what the NCAA spends today.

If you want to argue about whether it's 8% or 10% or 12%, go ahead.  It's nowhere near the "cost of everything the NCAA currently does." 

Reading comprehension. I didn't say that they would have to take on 100% of what the NCAA does. I said everything else the NCAA currently does that the P5 would have to take on. Obviously they wouldn't have to take on everything that the NCAA currently does, but it will cost them a lot more than $28 million it costs to run the tournament.

The rights wouldn't be cut anywhere close to 50%. There are 32 first-round games and 31 subsequent games.  While you'd lose 50.8% of the games if you eliminate the first round, you're maybe losing only 1/3 of the total audience, so those later round games are far more valuable.

The highest-rated first-round game drew just 5.5 million viewers. The highest-rated 2nd-round game drew 11.2 million.  The average Sweet 16 game drew more than 9 million and the final four 17/18 million each game.

There are 32 first round games and 4 play in games so you are losing 54% of the total games and that's a HUGE number. And while currently the round of 32 draws more than that round of 64, will that remain the case when it is the new first round? Same for the Sweet 16, will it continue to draw as many as it did when it only takes one win to get there? You aren't even factoring the attrition that will occur due to the format change. Hundreds of thousands of people who used to watch the tournament wouldn't anymore if the P5 split off. And even if you want to dispute any of these points, you have to admit they are risks. And trying to convince 69 change adverse universities that are currently massively benefitting from the status quo (and have the power to make sure they benefit even more in the future within the status quo) to take on that level of risk is just not something I see happening.

At this point, we are going to have to agree to disagree. I'm very confident that we won't see March Madness shrink anytime in the near future (I think it is more likely that it will grow than shrink) and that Marquette will be competing for a spot in March Madness for the foreseeable future.
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The Equalizer

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #165 on: May 17, 2022, 09:55:44 AM »
There are numerous advantages to those buy games and the reason they pay tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars to play them. Selling season ticket packages is part, and as you note people aren't making time to watch CBB in November and December when football is on pretty much every night. But there's also the simple win/loss factor. Every year we hear complaints about all the mediocre high-majors that make the field. Teams that are 19-15, 18-13, or some similarly mediocre record.

If it's all high-majors playing each other, then those 70 or so teams will have an average record of .500 because they only play each other. So in virtually every year, with a 32-team field, you'd be giving at-large bids to .500 teams or teams a game over, and in some years at-large bids to teams with losing records. Fattening up those records with cupcakes helps convince people the field is that much stronger. While you would only have high-majors, there would be strong sentiment that the field was actually weaker because the teams that were included had worse records and the teams that were excluded would have teams legitimately better than the ones in the field.

There's nothing that would stop the P5 from allowing their teams to continue to play outside the P5 during the non-conference season--similar to the BCS teams scheduling FCS opponents. 


brewcity77

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #166 on: May 17, 2022, 02:11:16 PM »
The highest-rated first-round game drew just 5.5 million viewers. The highest-rated 2nd-round game drew 11.2 million.  The average Sweet 16 game drew more than 9 million and the final four 17/18 million each game.

These are disingenous numbers, however, because of game overlap. There are 3-4 games simultaneously in the first round, 2-3 in the second round, 1-2 in the Sweet 16, and no more than 1 on Final Four weekend. Is there more concentrated interest in the later rounds? Sure. But the numbers you provide indicate that most of the time, there are 12-18 million people watching NCAA games at any given time throughout the tournament. It's not like it quadruples from the first weekend to the Final Four.
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WhiteTrash

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #167 on: May 17, 2022, 10:29:38 PM »
There's nothing that would stop the P5 from allowing their teams to continue to play outside the P5 during the non-conference season--similar to the BCS teams scheduling FCS opponents.
Non- NCAA D1 games do nothing for your NCAA record. Kind of a waste of time for NCAA teams to play them. Maybe one per year would be OK.

The Equalizer

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #168 on: May 18, 2022, 06:21:21 PM »
These are disingenous numbers, however, because of game overlap. There are 3-4 games simultaneously in the first round, 2-3 in the second round, 1-2 in the Sweet 16, and no more than 1 on Final Four weekend. Is there more concentrated interest in the later rounds? Sure. But the numbers you provide indicate that most of the time, there are 12-18 million people watching NCAA games at any given time throughout the tournament. It's not like it quadruples from the first weekend to the Final Four.

You're saying that the first-round games COULD generate a bigger audience, but don't only because there are multiple games at the same time dividing the audience. 

One tiny problem with your theory.

Rights payments aren't based on hypothetically what the audience could be if the games didn't overlap--they're based on the reality of what the audience actually IS given that they do overlap.

So who is really being disingenuous? 

But let's settle this with the actual numbers.

Average first four game: 1.76 million
Average first round game audience: 2.03 million
Source: https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2022/03/23/Media/NCAA-viewers.aspx#:~:text=First%2Dround%20games%20averaged%202.11,that%20the%20First%20Four%20averaged

4 games x 1.76 million each = total First Four viewership of 7.04 million
32 games x 2.03 million each = first round viewership of 64.96 million

Total viewers for the first four and First round = 72 million


Average 2nd round game: 5.15 million
Source: https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2022/03/23/Media/NCAA-viewers.aspx#:~:text=First%2Dround%20games%20averaged%202.11,that%20the%20First%20Four%20averaged

16 x 5.15 million = 82.4 million


Average Sweet 16: 9 million
Source: https://tvline.com/2022/03/26/tv-ratings-ncaa-tournament-saint-peters-first-15-seed-in-elite-8/
8 games x 9 million = 72 million

Average Elite Eight: 10.3 million
Source; https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/tv/story/2022-03-29/tv-ratings-story-for-the-week-of-march-21-27-wed-march-30-2022#:~:text=The%20Elite%208%20game%20averaged,network%2C%20averaging%202.811%20million%20viewers

4 games x 10.3 million = 41.2 million

Final Four:
Duke/UNC: 17.7 million
Villanova/Kansas: 11.7 million
UNC/Kansas: 17.1 million
Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1264872/march-madness-final-four-viewers/

Final four total = 46.5 million

Total veiwers after the first round:  154.4 million


The first-four plus the first-round games combined only generate about 1/3 of the total viewership.



 



rocky_warrior

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #169 on: May 18, 2022, 11:43:21 PM »

The first-four plus the first-round games combined only generate about 1/3 of the total viewership.


I don't really care about either of your arguments, but

1/3 = 0.3333333333333333

72/154 = 0.4675324675324675

0.4675324675324675 / 0.3333333333333333 = 1.40...

So your 1/3 number is only off by 40%.  No big deal right?  Rounding error. Except the first-four plus the first-round games are closer to 50% of the viewership.

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brewcity77

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #170 on: May 19, 2022, 06:10:03 AM »
I don't really care about either of your arguments, but

1/3 = 0.3333333333333333

72/154 = 0.4675324675324675

0.4675324675324675 / 0.3333333333333333 = 1.40...

So your 1/3 number is only off by 40%.  No big deal right?  Rounding error. Except the first-four plus the first-round games are closer to 50% of the viewership.

Edit: It was poorly presented, but it was 72 million first round, 154 after the first round, so 226 million total.

But again, doing the math, it's about 6-8 million at a time first round, 10 million second round, 9 million at a time Sweet 16, 10 million at a time Elite 8. So the weekday games draw 6-9 million viewers at a time, weekend draw 10 million at a time, then there's a big jump for the F4.

All that said, there's not some precipitous jump, and people ramping up interest as the tournament progresses doesn't exactly seem like revelatory information.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2022, 08:01:51 AM by brewcity77 »
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21Jumpstreet

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #171 on: May 19, 2022, 07:03:16 AM »
72% of all statistics are made up

Uncle Rico

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #172 on: May 19, 2022, 07:18:36 AM »
72% of all statistics are made up

If the stat doesn’t have the number 69 or 420 in it, I ignore it
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WhiteTrash

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #173 on: May 19, 2022, 08:40:04 AM »
Can someone explain to me why Saban's comments on TA&M 'buying every player' is news worthy? That seems as news worthy as saying TA&M runs screen plays. Is there a DI school that doesn't? I'm serious, what's next, coach's complaining about the three point shot in basketball?

rocky_warrior

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Re: New NIL Collective for MBB and WBB
« Reply #174 on: May 19, 2022, 08:48:42 AM »
Edit: It was poorly presented, but it was 72 million first round, 154 after the first round, so 226 million total.

Whoops.  I hate it when math gets in the way of a good point.
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