Investing Thread

[4everwarriors]

A good friend's wife had ordered a Chevy Trailblazer 7 months ago.   The week after Christmas she got a notification that hers was being shipped and would be at the dealership on (date).  She called the dealership to make arrangements and they told her that because she was trying to use the GM employee family discount, they had sold 'her' car to a.purchaser willing to pay sticker+.

Kolek them.

I am not purchasing a new car until I can go to a lot, drive one, and pick the one I like.

Fahrenheit, dat'll be wen Covid iz eradicated, hey?

[tower912]

Yup.   

[4everwarriors]

Aka, neva, hey?

[tower912]

Depends.    Follow science or facebook?   Imagine if China had aggressively vaccinated with shots that work instead of what they did.   

[rocket surgeon]

i'm done with buying brand new cars off the lot.  we go for the newer used with under 10,000 miles and car fax.  let someone else take the depreciation hit and break it in for me.  this has worked out for a number of years

[jesmu84]

i'm done with buying brand new cars off the lot.  we go for the newer used with under 10,000 miles and car fax.  let someone else take the depreciation hit and break it in for me.  this has worked out for a number of years

This is a solid strategy.

How long do you keep your cars typically?

[Hards Alumni]

i'm done with buying brand new cars off the lot.  we go for the newer used with under 10,000 miles and car fax.  let someone else take the depreciation hit and break it in for me.  this has worked out for a number of years

Yup

[MU82]

Edmunds named Ford Lightning "best of the best" vehicle for 2023:

https://www.edmunds.com/top-rated/best-of-the-best/?utm_source=marketo&utm_medium=email&utm_account=edmunds_insider&utm_targetid=4dfd1ae6-7b17-46f4-a399-af3cb5ef510b&utm_campaign=newsletter&utm_term=2023_01_v4_newsletter&utm_adgroup=10802&utm_content=hero

[rocket surgeon]

This is a solid strategy.

How long do you keep your cars typically?

 exhibit A-back in 2006 i bought a jag xjr with 12,000 miles on it for 1/2 original sticker price and kept for 10 relatively problem free years.  being a little skeptical at the time-asked the dealership why the person was willing to take a $50k haircut on this car?  they reportedly traded it in for a brand new xk8 convertible which just came out.  i put on over 100k miles, so i felt i got more than my monies worth and it was a really fun car

  i've got a 2006 (5000 miles)hummer i bought in 2007 i have used in arizona for the past 10 years so it only has 138,000 on it today

  2017(12,000 miles) lexus es300 bought in 2018-it only has 40,000 miles on today

  2017(8,000 miles) jeep sahara bought in 2019-64,000 miles today-i'm passively looking to replace with another wrangler, waiting for the right deal at right time as opposed to NEEDING to find a car
 
  we just bought a 2021 mercedes convertible last week in Az with 9,000 miles and probably keep until ???


the inventories of nice, relatively new cars is exploding and there are so many deals to be had. banks are repossessing defaults at a high rate.  people who've found themselves overextended as inflation kicked in etc      watch out for the hurricane cars.

[Uncle Rico]

exhibit A-back in 2006 i bought a jag xjr with 12,000 miles on it for 1/2 original sticker price and kept for 10 relatively problem free years.  being a little skeptical at the time-asked the dealership why the person was willing to take a $50k haircut on this car?  they reportedly traded it in for a brand new xk8 convertible which just came out.  i put on over 100k miles, so i felt i got more than my monies worth and it was a really fun car

  i've got a 2006 (5000 miles)hummer i bought in 2007 i have used in arizona for the past 10 years so it only has 138,000 on it today

  2017(12,000 miles) lexus es300 bought in 2018-it only has 40,000 miles on today

  2017(8,000 miles) jeep sahara bought in 2019-64,000 miles today-i'm passively looking to replace with another wrangler, waiting for the right deal at right time as opposed to NEEDING to find a car
 
  we just bought a 2021 mercedes convertible last week in Az with 9,000 miles and probably keep until ???


the inventories of nice, relatively new cars is exploding and there are so many deals to be had. banks are repossessing defaults at a high rate.  people who've found themselves overextended as inflation kicked in etc      watch out for the hurricane cars.

I only buy cars with zero miles but I’m not a poor

[forgetful]

exhibit A-back in 2006 i bought a jag xjr with 12,000 miles on it for 1/2 original sticker price and kept for 10 relatively problem free years.  being a little skeptical at the time-asked the dealership why the person was willing to take a $50k haircut on this car?  they reportedly traded it in for a brand new xk8 convertible which just came out.  i put on over 100k miles, so i felt i got more than my monies worth and it was a really fun car

  i've got a 2006 (5000 miles)hummer i bought in 2007 i have used in arizona for the past 10 years so it only has 138,000 on it today

  2017(12,000 miles) lexus es300 bought in 2018-it only has 40,000 miles on today

  2017(8,000 miles) jeep sahara bought in 2019-64,000 miles today-i'm passively looking to replace with another wrangler, waiting for the right deal at right time as opposed to NEEDING to find a car
 
  we just bought a 2021 mercedes convertible last week in Az with 9,000 miles and probably keep until ???


the inventories of nice, relatively new cars is exploding and there are so many deals to be had. banks are repossessing defaults at a high rate.  people who've found themselves overextended as inflation kicked in etc      watch out for the hurricane cars.

Not doubting you, but why would the dealer take such a large haircut on the vehicle. Either it was only worth 50% of its original sticker price at that point, or the dealer didn't understand business.

Now I agree with the way you buy cars, and I do the same, but that part seems weird.

[tower912]

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a42709679/tesla-insurance-fixes-expense/

[MU82]

This indicator predicts 100% certainty of market rise in 2023:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3930215-sp-500-index-hits-january-indicator-trifecta-giving-it-perhaps-100-percent-odds-of-2023-gains-spy-spx

The S&P 500’s rally Tuesday to end the month 6.2% higher means that stocks hit the so-called “January Indicator Trifecta” this year. That gives the blue-chip index (SPY) close to if not a 100% historical probability of rising strongly for 2023 as a whole, according to Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

“It’s super-bullish,” said Hirsch, whose publication developed the January Indicator Trifecta in 2013 and back-tested it to 1950.

Stock Trader’s Almanac found that the S&P 500 has risen for the year as a whole 90.3% of the time over the past seven decades-plus whenever the index enjoys:

++ A so-called “Santa Claus Rally,” defined as rallying during the last five sessions of the old year and first two sessions of the new one. This year, the blue chips gained 0.8% during that period.

++ Higher prices over a new year’s first five trading sessions. The S&P 500 added 1.4% during 2023’s first five sessions, fulfilling the January Indicator Trifecta’s second criterion.

++ A rally during January as a whole. SPY’s 1.5% gain on Tuesday completed the January Indicator Trifecta’s final leg, with the blue chips gaining just over 6% for the year’s first month.

Hirsch told Seeking Alpha that the S&P 500 Index has risen in 28 of the 31 years when the index hit the January Indicator Trifecta since 1950, gaining 17.5% per 12-month period on average.

Even more significantly, he said the S&P 500 has a 100% record of rallying in the 13 times since 1950 when stocks passed the January Indicator Trifecta following a bear-market year, as 2022 was. The S&P 500 rallied 22% on average in those years.

“There’s not one year where a rally hasn’t happened when stocks hit the January Trifecta after a bear market,” the Stock Trader’s Almanac editor said. “In fact, my biggest fear these days is that I’m not bullish enough.”

[MU82]

.25% rate hike by the Fed, as had been expected.

And while Powell said there were more raises to come, he signaled that the cycle was almost over by mentioning "a couple more," followed by a pause.

Mr. Market seems to like the announcement and the comments that followed.

[rocket surgeon]

TESLA...shhhhhhhhhhh

[Hards Alumni]

TESLA...shhhhhhhhhhh

All tech stocks are up.  Meta is up 26%

[tower912]

Another half million jobs filled.   2.9% growth in the fourth quarter.  Shell with $40 billion in profit for the quarter.   

Damnedest recession ever.

[MU82]

Too damn many jobs available!

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Another half million jobs filled.   2.9% growth in the fourth quarter.  Shell with $40 billion in profit for the quarter.   

Damnedest recession ever.

And the market hates it, as the odds of more/bigger interest hikes increase, i.e., the economy is too good.

Not to worry, the House will do their best to blow it all up.

[Uncle Rico]

And the market hates it, as the odds of more/bigger interest hikes increase, i.e., the economy is too good.

Stock market isn’t the economy

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Stock market isn’t the economy

Agreed.

Economy too good ===> likely more interest hikes than previously anticipated ===> stock market dives on lower future expectations due to rate hikes.

[Skatastrophy]

It is a positive thing, economically, that we can keep running hot with a higher interest rate. Up through last year there was concern that we would be at global 0 or negative interest rates indefinitely, and that was the new normal. Everything runs better with a little inflation.

[MU82]

Good news for Super Bowl party-throwers ...

The price of chicken wings is down 22% from last year. The price of avocados is down 20%.

The price of beer is up 11%, though, so nothing's perfect!

[Dr. Blackheart]

Another half million jobs filled.   2.9% growth in the fourth quarter.  Shell with $40 billion in profit for the quarter.   

Damnedest recession ever.

Supply side driven.  Companies (and consultants) only know demand side recessions in their playbooks which may lead to a a deeper fall. 

[jesmu84]

As alluded to...

Job market is great!!

https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1621510313085657093?t=AoCq9_sc0T9JNVESuhza1g&s=19

But wall street and the fed hate it

https://twitter.com/BrianMFloyd/status/1621512836865470469?t=9AAfHsj9QSL-N_Lp6gyVww&s=19