One Possession Games

[Dr. Blackheart]

I am trying to find it, but I did an analysis back in time, if I recall correctly, that found great coaches (K, Wright, etc.), on average win at least 57% of one possession or OT games. The hypothesis was the coaches can decide a few possessions per game with their situationals, and thus are more influential in close games.

MU is 5-1 in these games this season, with Creighton being the loss. Now, this will even out over time, but this is a positive sign going forward to me. One of my few concerns from afar with Shaka based on his early NCAA bow-outs, was his in game situationals. And in the UCONN (close game but not one possession) and CU games, as I posted here, this bias was reinforced by what we thought were in game mistakes (strategy, scorer desk missing opposing team fouls on the board that would have put MU in the bonus earlier, late time outs on runs, etc).

However, in the SH and Nova games, the situationals have been flawless. This idea of having the players vetoing the coaches says a lot about the communication and execution in these close games overriding whiteboard strategy. It also says a lot about confidence in his team (and his ego to let go), but there is a lesson in there about the players’ joint ownership and being clear on what’s going on in stressful and fluid  situations where the fog of war takes over.

Btw, Wojo teams were .500 at 25-25. MU has averaged 7-8 per year of these games, and the tally is already at six so the roller coaster is still open. Having a great defense helps ease the stomach.

[PGsHeroes32]

Yeah I think a huge thing is first having a good team defense that can get key stops.

Thats how weve won a lot of these close ones. Especially the two biggest metric wise in Illinois and Nova. We were not scoring in bunches in those games. It was a slow death for those teams over the final 7ish minutes.

And then like you said coaching does matter. Making the right decisions, the right rotation. Drawing up plays. I think Shaka has been really good in that regard. He botched Creighton in a few different ways(though outside of lack of foul up 3, some may of been due to no Kam and a sick Greg).

But he was huge in games like Illinois and Nova. He trusted freshman Stevie on D vs Illinois. He had clearly the right 5 against Nova. SHU imo the final 4 minutes were a masterclass.

[WellsstreetWanderer]

Watched DePaul blow their chance last night. Possession with @40 seconds on the board and no time out,
No play just hero ball which had cost them their slender lead in the waning minutes.

[panda]

When MU was 0-3 in conference, I said this team reminded me so much of the midgets team.

A bunch of close losses, but clearly a high level of experience and talent mixed together. Hard nosed players who pride themselves on the defensive end.

So proud of the character from this team and I do believe the losses, especially Creighton, has driven them to this point.

[Galway Eagle]

Watched DePaul blow their chance last night. Possession with @40 seconds on the board and no time out,
No play just hero ball which had cost them their slender lead in the waning minutes.

You were able to watch DePaul? I just watched a hand in front of the camera

[Marquette4life]

Last night it worked out but when the game is close justin Lewis tries to play a bit of too much hero ball in my opinion. I was wondering if anyone had any stats of Justin Lewis fg% when he has his back to the basket in iso situations. Seems like it rarely works out. However Lewis beating his defender off the dribble and going all the way to the rim works great.

[Goose]

Great stuff, Dr. B. Another reason for excitement about the future of the program.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

You were able to watch DePaul? I just watched a hand in front of the camera

That was funny.!
And it was right in front of the rim & backboard so you could not see what was happening in the closing seconds.

[cheebs09]

When MU was 0-3 in conference, I said this team reminded me so much of the midgets team.

A bunch of close losses, but clearly a high level of experience and talent mixed together. Hard nosed players who pride themselves on the defensive end.

So proud of the character from this team and I do believe the losses, especially Creighton, has driven them to this point.

Agreed. I also thought we just needed to break the seal on a Big East win, and that would allow us to play more freely. Granted, I didn’t think it would lead to this much success. This team is in a groove right now and it’s fun to see it lead by effort/defense.

Paint Touches has posted since BE play started, we are playing like a Top 15 team.

[lawdog77]

That was funny.!
And it was right in front of the rim & backboard so you could not see what was happening in the closing seconds.

Yeah, I stayed up past my bedtime to see that. I was thinking during the end of the game, "who do I want to win?", then I came to the conclusion that I don't care. I think this years MU team will do well enough where we don't have to worry who wins a game between X and DePaul to make our fate.

[Newsdreams]

Last night it worked out but when the game is close justin Lewis tries to play a bit of too much hero ball in my opinion. I was wondering if anyone had any stats of Justin Lewis fg% when he has his back to the basket in iso situations. Seems like it rarely works out. However Lewis beating his defender off the dribble and going all the way to the rim works great.

It is not hero ball it is what the coach wants. People keep calling it hero ball, there are players the coach wants to be aggressive. Listen to Shaka on Thursdays, he is all in on Justin.

[Daniel]

It is not hero ball it is what the coach wants. People keep calling it hero ball, there are players the coach wants to be aggressive. Listen to Shaka on Thursdays, he is all in on Justin.

I agree.  Not hero ball.   Don’t see that much on this team.   Which is good.

[Skatastrophy]

Having a great defense helps ease the stomach.

I really enjoy the buy-in from the team this year. When they slap the floor it feels organic. I believe that they believe they're going to get the stop.