collapse

* Wisconsin SOTG

No Stud when we lose.
2021-22 Season SoG Tally
Morsell2
Ighodaro1
Kolek1
Kuath1
Lewis1
Mitchell1

'20-21 * '19-20
'18-19 * '17-18 * '16-17
'15-16 * '14-15 * '13-14
'12-13 * '11-12 * '10-11

* Big East Standings

* Recent Posts

Beating K-State is Imperative by real chili 83
[Today at 05:06:06 AM]


Big East Poll and NET Rankings by MarquetteMike1977
[Today at 12:30:38 AM]


Kohl hole o sole' mio by MuggsyB
[December 06, 2021, 08:18:14 PM]


Shaka's 2021-2022 Season Accomplishments by 1SE
[December 06, 2021, 04:53:30 PM]


2021-22 Big East Conference Results by tower912
[December 06, 2021, 04:20:07 PM]


NM by Fluffy Blue Monster
[December 06, 2021, 03:54:43 PM]


So....What are we ranked on Monday - 12/14/2020 by Nukem2
[December 06, 2021, 03:32:59 PM]

Please Register - It's FREE!

The absolute only thing required for this FREE registration is a valid e-mail address.  We keep all your information confidential and will NEVER give or sell it to anyone else.
Login to get rid of this box (and ads) , or register NOW!

* Next up: @ Kansas State

Marquette
76
Marquette @

Kansas St.

Date/Time: Dec 8, 2021, 8:00pm
TV: ESPN2
Schedule for 2021-22
Wisconsin
89

Author Topic: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March  (Read 2120 times)

JakeBarnes

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 4169
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #25 on: November 22, 2021, 12:37:19 PM »
True enough.  However, I note that you're framing this in terms of playing the Bonnies, not winning a tournament championship.  ;D

My point is that there is nothing special about winning the championship of one of these tournaments with respect to making the NCAA tournament or your seed. 

Consider it this way:  the impact is neither more nor less than it would be had we faced the same team as an ordinary non-conference game.

ANd we just added 3 nice non-con games with the tourney play. 2-1 there is gonna look pretty good.

Beat Kstate and Wisky and lose to UCLA and we're still in REALLY good shape after noncon. Beat UCLA...and baby, now you've got a stew going.
Assume what I say should be in teal if it doesn't pass the smell test for you.


brewcity77

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 23131
  • SJW is a badge of honor, not a pejorative.
    • Cracked Sidewalks
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #26 on: November 22, 2021, 01:14:01 PM »
True enough.  However, I note that you're framing this in terms of playing the Bonnies, not winning a tournament championship.  ;D

My point is that there is nothing special about winning the championship of one of these tournaments with respect to making the NCAA tournament or your seed. 

Consider it this way:  the impact is neither more nor less than it would be had we faced the same team as an ordinary non-conference game.

This is simply not true, because winning the championship brings with it an additional 1-2 high-major wins and takes place on a neutral court which changes how the game is regarded in the metrics.

I get that you've painted yourself into a bit of a corner on this one, but there's a reason I used an 85 tournament sample size and discussed the 25% selection rate difference between the winners and losers of these games, because both are highly statistically significant. I know that trying to disprove anything I say seems to be a hobby of yours, but it's not a very effective strategy when you're debating with math.

As noted by others and myself in the original article, winning doesn't guarantee inclusion, but it greatly increases your probability of getting in. Losing doesn't eliminate a team, but it comparably greatly reduces your probability of getting in. At the end of the year, teams that win MTEs will miss out, teams that are runners-up will get in, and teams that don't make the final will have a wide range of results.

Over the course of those 5 years, 67 high major teams took home titles on this MTE list and earned 53 NCAA bids. The other 308 high majors during that span earned 133 NCAA bids in the same span. I know which group I would rather be in.
Why won't Kur Kuath answer my DMs?
.
He blocked me.

BM1090

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 5114
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #27 on: November 22, 2021, 01:27:41 PM »
ANd we just added 3 nice non-con games with the tourney play. 2-1 there is gonna look pretty good.

Beat Kstate and Wisky and lose to UCLA and we're still in REALLY good shape after noncon. Beat UCLA...and baby, now you've got a stew going.

We're in good shape if we win one of those three games and don't falter against JSU or NIU. That would give us four quality non-conference wins, three away from home.

If we win those two road games and end non-conference at 9-2 we are in fantastic shape.

brewcity77

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 23131
  • SJW is a badge of honor, not a pejorative.
    • Cracked Sidewalks
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #28 on: November 22, 2021, 01:31:19 PM »
We're in good shape if we win one of those three games and don't falter against JSU or NIU. That would give us four quality non-conference wins, three away from home.

If we win those two road games and end non-conference at 9-2 we are in fantastic shape.

9-2 and winning 10+ in conference (if the Big East keeps it up) would give us a shot at a bid. Feels more realistic seeing how Georgetown, DePaul, Creighton, and Butler look so far.
Why won't Kur Kuath answer my DMs?
.
He blocked me.

LAZER

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1586
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #29 on: November 22, 2021, 02:07:34 PM »
9-2 and winning 10+ in conference (if the Big East keeps it up) would give us a shot at a bid. Feels more realistic seeing how Georgetown, DePaul, Creighton, and Butler look so far.
I like our chances with this resume.

brewcity77

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 23131
  • SJW is a badge of honor, not a pejorative.
    • Cracked Sidewalks
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #30 on: November 22, 2021, 02:25:15 PM »
Even 8-3 gives us a good chance. The Illinois and West Virginia wins should age well, and Mississippi has a favorable conference schedule that could have them in the bubble conversation thanks to only seeing SEC favorites Kentucky, Tennessee, and Alabama once each.
Why won't Kur Kuath answer my DMs?
.
He blocked me.

JakeBarnes

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 4169
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #31 on: November 22, 2021, 02:27:34 PM »
9-2 and winning 10+ in conference (if the Big East keeps it up) would give us a shot at a bid. Feels more realistic seeing how Georgetown, DePaul, Creighton, and Butler look so far.

9-2 and 10-8 is a bid, IMO. It'd put  us ahead of the teams with cupcake non con schedules like IU assuming a similar conference performance.
Assume what I say should be in teal if it doesn't pass the smell test for you.


brewcity77

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 23131
  • SJW is a badge of honor, not a pejorative.
    • Cracked Sidewalks
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #32 on: November 22, 2021, 02:59:14 PM »
9-2 and 10-8 is a bid, IMO. It'd put  us ahead of the teams with cupcake non con schedules like IU assuming a similar conference performance.

Remember we now play 20 conference games, so it's 10-10. I don't think a .500 record is a lock. Since the league reconfiguration, 4/10 .500 teams earned NCAA bids, with only one sub-.500 team earning an at-large (though 2020 Marquette would've been the second if not for COVID).

That said, considering our non-con schedule & what we've already done, I'd like our chances at 10-10 or better if we go 9-2 (or even 8-3) in non-con.
Why won't Kur Kuath answer my DMs?
.
He blocked me.

tower912

  • Registered User
  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 17760
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #33 on: November 22, 2021, 02:59:31 PM »
9-2 and 10-8 is a bid, IMO. It'd put  us ahead of the teams with cupcake non con schedules like IU assuming a similar conference performance.
Big East season is 20 games.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

The Equalizer

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1333
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #34 on: November 22, 2021, 07:04:39 PM »
This is simply not true, because winning the championship brings with it an additional 1-2 high-major wins and takes place on a neutral court which changes how the game is regarded in the metrics.

I get that you've painted yourself into a bit of a corner on this one, but there's a reason I used an 85 tournament sample size and discussed the 25% selection rate difference between the winners and losers of these games, because both are highly statistically significant. I know that trying to disprove anything I say seems to be a hobby of yours, but it's not a very effective strategy when you're debating with math.

As noted by others and myself in the original article, winning doesn't guarantee inclusion, but it greatly increases your probability of getting in. Losing doesn't eliminate a team, but it comparably greatly reduces your probability of getting in. At the end of the year, teams that win MTEs will miss out, teams that are runners-up will get in, and teams that don't make the final will have a wide range of results.

Over the course of those 5 years, 67 high major teams took home titles on this MTE list and earned 53 NCAA bids. The other 308 high majors during that span earned 133 NCAA bids in the same span. I know which group I would rather be in.

I don't dispute everything you say--only the things that are wrong. ;D

In this case, while you've done a nice job of pointing out the correlation between winning an MTE championship and making the NCAA tournament, your math doesn't support the conclusion that winning these tournaments "greatly increases your probability of getting in."   

First, the teams participating in MTEs aren't a random representation of D1 (or even high majors). Because organizers want good teams that help sell tickets, Villanova and Kansas and Duke and Gonzaga regularly participate in these types of tournaments, while teams like Wake Forest or Boston College or DePaul don't participate as regularly. You can't claim statistical significance regarding the performance of these tournaments if you're going to start with a cherry-picked data set.

But that aside, the claim is that winning an MTE "greatly increases your probability of getting in" falls apart when you consider that most of the winners appear to have a body of work that would have generated an NCAA bid regardless. 

For example, consider the Battle for Atlantis, the first tournament listed in your grid. Remove their MTE games from their body of work, and it's hard to argue that winners 2018 Virginia, 2017 Villanova, 2016 Baylor and 2014 Wisconsin wouldn't have still been locks for the tournament anyway.  In other words, winning the Battle of Atlantis arguably had little to no impact for these teams.  The only team over the five years where this particular tournament likely had an impact on it's champion making the NCAA Tournament was for 2015 winner Syracuse. 

Next on your chart is Maui. Again, winners 2018 Gonzaga, 2016 UNC, 2015 Kansas and 2014 Arizona would have been locks for the tournament without including their MTE games in their body of work.  And Notre Dame missed the tournament even after winning an MTE Championship in 2017. 

My guess is if I go through the entire list, I'm going to find a whole lot of teams where the MTE Championship had little to no impact, a handful (like Syracuse above) where it helped, and a handful (like Notre Dame) where it didn't.

If you think I have this wrong, I'm open you your explanation.  But to me, it looks like you saw a strong correlation and used the data to make the case for causation.

Not saying that there aren't isolated cases where winning such a tournament helps a team. But for the most part, it's a fun event for fans and lets the teams involved travel to a fun destination--but minimal impact on NCAA chances for most teams.

brewcity77

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 23131
  • SJW is a badge of honor, not a pejorative.
    • Cracked Sidewalks
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #35 on: November 22, 2021, 08:14:51 PM »
while teams like Wake Forest or Boston College or DePaul don't participate as regularly.

If you want to disprove the thesis, do the research rather than randomly making an unsupported assertion and pretending it's valid with no evidence. I'll even help you get started. Wake, BC, and DePaul participated in 13 exempt tournaments over that span, an average of 4.3 per year, so damn near every year for every team you erroneously claim "don't participate as regularly."

If you want to complete the research for all 75 high majors, go ahead. Otherwise, knock it off with your weak attempts and incorrect, unfounded assertions.
« Last Edit: November 22, 2021, 08:52:02 PM by brewcity77 »
Why won't Kur Kuath answer my DMs?
.
He blocked me.

Fluffy Blue Monster

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 6408
  • Send it in...medium-sized fella!!
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #36 on: November 22, 2021, 08:34:36 PM »
So I just read this, and I think a better way to look at this (if it’s possible), is to see what the KenPom or NET rating of the two finalists would have been had the result of the championship game been reversed.

What that would do is show what the value of a MTE championship is worth. And that would be a better indicator of the value of winning these things.

Because Equalizer is right that the way you did it doesn’t eliminate the cause and effect in your analysis.  Sure SBU is now better poised to make the NCAAs than MU, but how much of that is due to them winning last night versus just simply being better throughout the year.  Figuring out the difference between a win and a loss, with everything else being equal, would show that.
“True patriotism hates injustice in its own land more than anywhere else.”  -Clarence Darrow

The Equalizer

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1333
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #37 on: November 23, 2021, 04:17:03 PM »
If you want to disprove the thesis, do the research rather than randomly making an unsupported assertion and pretending it's valid with no evidence. I'll even help you get started. Wake, BC, and DePaul participated in 13 exempt tournaments over that span, an average of 4.3 per year, so damn near every year for every team you erroneously claim "don't participate as regularly."

If you want to complete the research for all 75 high majors, go ahead. Otherwise, knock it off with your weak attempts and incorrect, unfounded assertions.

So....86% is indeed less than 100%--which is consistent with what I claimed. I'm not sure what your objection is here.  There are 350 D1 teams.  Some are invited every year--some are invited less frequently, some almost never get invited.  What is the basis of your objection to this?
 
Next, looking at your 85 data points (the individual MTE champions):

4 times the MTE championship didn't matter because the team earned an automatic bid (and furthermore, 2 of those the teams -- Bradley and Weber State --  wouldn't have qualified without the auto-bid.  The other two had a strong body of work and would have qualified anyway)

25 times the MTE championship didn't matter because the team didn't make the NCAA tournament at all! 

45 times teams the MTE championship didn't matter because the winner was strong enough to make the NCAA tournament regardless of their MTE participation.

That leaves just 11 out of 85 data points where the teams that MTE championship arguably helped the team earn an NCAA bid.

Therefore, I believe you overstated the impact of winning an MTE championship on making an NCAA tournament.

brewcity77

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 23131
  • SJW is a badge of honor, not a pejorative.
    • Cracked Sidewalks
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #38 on: November 24, 2021, 12:40:07 AM »
So....86% is indeed less than 100%--which is consistent with what I claimed. I'm not sure what your objection is here.  There are 350 D1 teams.  Some are invited every year--some are invited less frequently, some almost never get invited.  What is the basis of your objection to this?

So you don't want to do the work, you just want to make unfounded assertions. Check.
 
Next, looking at your 85 data points (the individual MTE champions):

4 times the MTE championship didn't matter because the team earned an automatic bid (and furthermore, 2 of those the teams -- Bradley and Weber State --  wouldn't have qualified without the auto-bid.  The other two had a strong body of work and would have qualified anyway)

This is the only worthwhile argument in your post.

25 times the MTE championship didn't matter because the team didn't make the NCAA tournament at all! 

Hence why the figure was 70%. Using this is intellectually dishonest as it was already addressed.

45 times teams the MTE championship didn't matter because the winner was strong enough to make the NCAA tournament regardless of their MTE participation.

The MTE is literally part of their resume. They were strong enough because of their resume. And the point is we don't know now what teams will be in March.

Sunday morning, St Bonaventure was not a lock to play in the NCAA tournament. Even now they aren't a lock. They could end up a 3, 6, 10, or out completely. If your argument is that them earning a 3 or 6 proves MTEs are meaningless, that's simply inaccurate because the numbers show them to be predictive of what's to come. You argument of "they're good enough anyway" isn't something that will be known for months, however the results of MTEs will be known this week and give us a reliable indicator of who will hear their name on Selection Sunday.

You can't even safely say that top-10 teams or eventual 1-seed results aren't predictive because teams like Illinois seem intent on proving they didn't deserve those rankings and might be more NIT than lock.

In November 2018, did you know that unranked Texas Tech would "be strong enough" regardless of their MTE result because they eventually earned a 3-seed? Of course not. Every year there are teams in the protected seed lines that prove to be strong enough by March, but they were often showing that strength in November which is why this is statistically significant even for teams that eventually earn high seeds.



That leaves just 11 out of 85 data points where the teams that MTE championship arguably helped the team earn an NCAA bid.

Therefore, I believe you overstated the impact of winning an MTE championship on making an NCAA tournament.

And I believe you once again missed the point. Do the research or provide your completely accurate bracket for March now, otherwise you're just wasting time.
Why won't Kur Kuath answer my DMs?
.
He blocked me.

The Equalizer

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 1333
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #39 on: November 24, 2021, 09:36:40 PM »
Sunday morning, St Bonaventure was not a lock to play in the NCAA tournament. Even now they aren't a lock. They could end up a 3, 6, 10, or out completely. If your argument is that them earning a 3 or 6 proves MTEs are meaningless, that's simply inaccurate because the numbers show them to be predictive of what's to come. You argument of "they're good enough anyway" isn't something that will be known for months, however the results of MTEs will be known this week and give us a reliable indicator of who will hear their name on Selection Sunday.

You can't even safely say that top-10 teams or eventual 1-seed results aren't predictive because teams like Illinois seem intent on proving they didn't deserve those rankings and might be more NIT than lock.

Interestingly enough, I took a look at the 2018 pre-season rankings, and a majority of the MTE winners were also ranked in the pre-season.

15 of 17 MTE champions eventually made the tournament.  Of those 15, 11 appeared in the rankings (8 top 15, 3 "also receiving votes").  Just 4 were unrecognized before the start of the season.
 
#5 Virginia
#3 Gonzaga
#15 Virginia Tech
#9 Villanova
#19 Michigan
#1 Kansas
#12 Kansas State
#10 Michigan State
Also Receiving Votes Cincinnati
Also Receiving Votes St. Johns
Also Receiving Votes Texas Tech

UNR Arizona State
UNR Bradley (Auto-Qualfier)
UNR Seton Hall
UNR Iowa

As I said early on, the tournament organizers load up their event with great teams, which then, as expected, go on to win. Your research didn't control for this, so you overstated the impact their MTE win had on their NCAA chances. 

In November 2018, did you know that unranked Texas Tech would "be strong enough" regardless of their MTE result because they eventually earned a 3-seed? Of course not. Every year there are teams in the protected seed lines that prove to be strong enough by March, but they were often showing that strength in November which is why this is statistically significant even for teams that eventually earn high seeds.

You weren't writing about them in November 2018--you're writing about them in November 2021.  By the time you wrote the article about their appearance in a 2018 MTE, you knew that MTE had no impact on Texas Tech getting a 2019 NCAA bid. Therefore, it's wrong to use them as a valid data point in support of the argument that winning the tournament greatly improves your chances of getting in.

And I believe you once again missed the point. Do the research or provide your completely accurate bracket for March now, otherwise you're just wasting time.

Do what research?  You already provided the data. I'm just correcting your overstatement on the impact MTEs have on a team's tournament chances.

Based on the data of 85 prior tournament winners, winning the championship was meaningful in helping a team reach the NCAA tournament in 11 cases (13%).  For the other 74 teams, it was of limited (if any) assistance, as 4 turned out to be automatic qualifiers, 25 still wound up missing the tournament, and 45 (many of whom were ranked in the pre-season polls) would have made the tournament without their MTE championship.




Dr. Blackheart

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 10061
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #40 on: November 24, 2021, 10:09:13 PM »
Lots of words, little substance. Just win, baby!

Spaniel with a Short Tail

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 2478
Re: [Cracked Sidewalks] What MTE Titles Mean in March
« Reply #41 on: November 25, 2021, 10:16:56 PM »

Newsdreams

  • All American
  • *****
  • Posts: 6086
  • Goal - Win BE