Opening Line

[bradforster]

Marquette is a five point dog tomorrow evening.  It would be interesting to know how often a team has won a pre-season tournament as the underdog in each game played.  It can't be a very high number.  Let's make it happen.  Go MU!

[mileskishnish72]

Yeah, but is that from some disreputable offshore internet site?

Wait until tho professional gamblers on Scoop weigh in with what should really happen.

[DegenerateDish]

Yeah, but is that from some disreputable offshore internet site?

Wait until tho professional gamblers on Scoop weigh in with what should really happen.

Solid take.

[Skatastrophy]

Marquette is a five point dog tomorrow evening.  It would be interesting to know how often a team has won a pre-season tournament as the underdog in each game played.  It can't be a very high number.  Let's make it happen.  Go MU!

We're playing with house money, LFG!

[tower912]

I thought ot was going to be something like... 'If I could change the alphabet, I would put U and I next to each other.'

But this makes more sense.

[brewcity77]

I wonder how much of this is because of analytics. Kenpom has us as a 5-point dog as well, but much of that is built in because of last year. I think if someone were setting a line based on this year, we'd at least be a pick 'em, especially after yesterday.

[avid1010]

I wonder how much of this is because of analytics. Kenpom has us as a 5-point dog as well, but much of that is built in because of last year. I think if someone were setting a line based on this year, we'd at least be a pick 'em, especially after yesterday.

Then all the sharp money would flow to MU and the books would get hammered.  MU is a 5pt dog...they were (very roughly) the same against Miss and then WV.  The books are giving them credit for being better than expected by keeping the lines similar as the competition gets better. 

[g0lden3agle]

I wonder how much of this is because of analytics. Kenpom has us as a 5-point dog as well, but much of that is built in because of last year. I think if someone were setting a line based on this year, we'd at least be a pick 'em, especially after yesterday.

Never realized Kenpom uses last years ratings early on in the following year.  Does he have a blog post on that subject?  I was wondering why we were still in the 70's after these last few wins...

[DrJay24]

Never realized Kenpom uses last years ratings early on in the following year.  Does he have a blog post on that subject?  I was wondering why we were still in the 70's after these last few wins...

Yes he has in the past. I don’t know what’s out there now but if you search for it I’m sure you can find something. It’s not until sometime in January I believe that all of the prior year stuff is relegated to zero.

[fjm]

Yeah, but is that from some disreputable offshore internet site?

Wait until tho professional gamblers on Scoop weigh in with what should really happen.

OnLy SeAsErZ AnD MgEeM CoUnT As SoURcE!

But honestly 5 doesn’t surprise me all that much!

[MU82]

Easy money. We Are Marquette!

[fjm]

-4.0 @ caesars per ESPN.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Never realized Kenpom uses last years ratings early on in the following year.  Does he have a blog post on that subject?  I was wondering why we were still in the 70's after these last few wins...

To be clear he uses data from last year on the players currently on the roster. So Lewis, Oso, and Greg are the only ones bringing data from last year's MU squad.

[avid1010]

Sharp money flowing to MU...general consensus is that MU will run the Bonnies starting 5 into the ground using their deep bench while the Bonnies bench couldn't score a point last game.  Get them gassed and/or in foul trouble and MU should be good to roll.  Only question mark is MU's outside shooting.  A few books still at +4...I've seen it as low as +3.

[Shooter McGavin]

Sharp money flowing to MU...general consensus is that MU will run the Bonnies starting 5 into the ground using their deep bench while the Bonnies bench couldn't score a point last game.  Get them gassed and/or in foul trouble and MU should be good to roll.  Only question mark is MU's outside shooting.  A few books still at +5...I've seen it as low as +3.5.

Agree with the wearing out theory.  It has shown up in every game.  Those comebacks were no fluke.

[MU82]

How "accurate" is kenpom as a predictor in November, December and even January?

Maybe it's really accurate. I don't know; that's why I'm asking those who follow this stuff.

It just seems not too predictive this time of year, and yet it is still constantly referred to. But maybe it is a great predictor.

[Uncle Rico]

How "accurate" is kenpom as a predictor in November, December and even January?

Maybe it's really accurate. I don't know; that's why I'm asking those who follow this stuff.

It just seems not too predictive this time of year, and yet it is still constantly referred to. But maybe it is a great predictor.

It is but it isn’t gospel.  That’s why they play the games. 

[rocky_warrior]

How "accurate" is kenpom as a predictor in November, December and even January?

Not that great.  But it's the best we have.

[Eye]

As a guy who picks in two season-long pools where you pick teams (one I'm in tonight 6 guys, pick 13 teams, guy whose group of 13 wins the most games all season through the national tourney game wins the pool, guy whose group wins 2nd most takes 2nd, etc) Ken Pom has some years where he's fantastic, others not so much. He says he's tweaked his formula after some of the others not so much years in recent years. Team Rankings also projects the rest of the season. IMHO I'd grade Pomeroy somewhere between a B and C, but as Rocky said, Pomeroy and Team Rankings seem to be about the best that are available.

[MU82]

Not that great.  But it's the best we have.

OK, thanks. Makes sense.

[GB Warrior]

Kenpom has to be hard this year where there's been so much roster turnover. Much more so for MU where the entire roster is new and there is a new coach to boot.

[PGsHeroes32]

Line is 2.5 now on the betting site i  use

[Skatastrophy]

Kenpom has to be hard this year where there's been so much roster turnover. Much more so for MU where the entire roster is new and there is a new coach to boot.

Time for someone to ramp KenPom up on Value Add Basketball for a player-based approach over a team-based approach.