Gotta beat Ole Miss!!

[Uncle Rico]

Gotta beat Ole Miss!

What’s the line?

[Lennys Tap]

To the 99% of you following this back and forth, my apologies in advance.

I tried explaining this earlier, but I'll provide data (which we know you love) here. After I'm done, you can call me names or whatever you like. Avid and 5 buck can chime in too to let me know how stupid I am, and I have zero clue about any of this.

Early in the college basketball season, "the real" books wait to put out lines. Let's look at some real life example, shall we?

Last week, offshores opened Citadel +12 at Pitt everywhere offshore, hell, even Wynn opened at +12. None of the "real books" ever posted +12 as their opening line. Do you know why? Because these books will wait to see what happens at the offshores. If money comes in semi-heavy on an early number at an offshore, obviously the number will change within minutes. Once that settles down, the "real books" will wait a while and then open at the lower/higher number. The "real books" goal early in a college basketball season is to let offshores settle on a number, because the "real books" invest next to nothing internally on setting early season college basketball lines due to the sheer inventory of games on a nightly basis.

Other examples: Clemson/Presbyterian O/U from 146, to "real books" opening at 139. Heck, Barstool had it open at 146 for seven minutes before it mysteriously went off the board. Niagara (+21.5 to +15.5 at Xavier). The best one yet...Offshores opened at 136.5 (KP at 136) total on Grambling St/Grand Canyon, the "real books" opened at 147. It was taken down 90 seconds later, and "opened" by the "real books" at 136.

My "guess" on Ole Miss -5.5 to -6.5 was based on analytics that I use. I'm sorry that the data I provided from OddsShark showed Ole Miss open at -5, my apologies to everyone.

It's great having you back after your "hiatus" JayBee.

Dish

Am I correct in assuming that when the offshore opening lines have a significant difference from Pomeroy’s projected line (say Ole Miss - 5.5) the big players jump on MU anticipating a line of 2.5 to 3.5 when the onshore books (who value/rely on Pomeroy) open? Assuming Pomeroy is the gold standard the opportunities to get a big edge or “middle” games are there. Does this happen frequently?

[StillAWarrior]

What’s the line?

Well played. I literally laughed out loud. The fact that your post was the first post on a new page -- a happy accident -- just made it better.

[mileskishnish72]

Sorry to digress to basketball, but we need to have the shooting come around. They play a zone and play it well. Also, we'll have to rebound like we did the last 8 minutes vs. Illinois. Doable.

[tower912]

1-3-1 zones require a different scheme than do 2-3 zones.   I am looking forward to Coach Smart's adjustments.   Better hit some 3s.

[MuggsyB]

1-3-1 zones require a different scheme than do 2-3 zones.   I am looking forward to Coach Smart's adjustments.   Better hit some 3s.

It's time to shred some nets Tower.   Rise and fire with confidence with crisp ball movement and high percentage looks.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Sorry to digress to basketball, but we need to have the shooting come around. They play a zone and play it well. Also, we'll have to rebound like we did the last 8 minutes vs. Illinois. Doable.

I predict Shaka has a better plan to attack the zone than did Wojo. He may not have the shooters he needs, however, but the scheme will be much more sound.

[DegenerateDish]

Basketball talk? I thought this was a gambling message board?

[Scoop Snoop]

Basketball talk? I thought this was a gambling message board?

I wouldn't bet on that!

[avid1010]

Dish

Am I correct in assuming that when the offshore opening lines have a significant difference from Pomeroy’s projected line (say Ole Miss - 5.5) the big players jump on MU anticipating a line of 2.5 to 3.5 when the onshore books (who value/rely on Pomeroy) open? Assuming Pomeroy is the gold standard the opportunities to get a big edge or “middle” games are there. Does this happen frequently?

Nope...no CLV in Pom's numbers for years minus some 1 half over/unders...

Also not so cut and dry as to why lines move.  There is always going to be more public money going to a team like the Cowboys with such a large fan base.  Naturally if the intent of the books was to split bets 50/50 on each side sharp money would win out as Dallas' line would be inflated.  The casino's essentially bet on teams at times...and that's when things get interesting.

[5DollarPitcher]

As far as actual game results are concerned:

This is a very traditional letdown spot. Going on the road after a huge, emotional win. However - I agree with the premise of what 82, Muggsy, and others have said, we should be locking in and treating this game as a must-win for legitimacy sake.

This game is the hump we could never quite make it over with Voldechowski. No excuses - we can win it. We will win it. No reason we can’t be a tourney team this year. It’ll be another close one though. I think we get hot from 3 and bring it home.

BUMP I GET ZERO CREDIT ON THIS BOARD

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I give you credit sir for your…

[JakeBarnes]

I give you credit sir for your…

Now I'm gonna go hump the fridge

[DegenerateDish]

BUMP I GET ZERO CREDIT ON THIS BOARD

Even I’d give you a huge high five right now.

[Herman Cain]

Huge win for out tournament resume.

[Daniel]

Wow!  Exciting team to watch in all ways ….. whew!   

[5DollarPitcher]

Even I’d give you a huge high five right now.

+1 degen

We’re on the same team. Hope you hopped on the plus money.

[1SE]

This was really a great win in terms of schedule.

We've now beaten a good BIG14 & decent SEC team and are guaranteed a game against a decent B12 team and either a decent ACC team or a ranked mid-major.

6 games into the season and we'll have had games against either 4 of the 5 (non-BE) P6, or 3 of the 5 with a ranked mid-major. And with UCLA we'll have the sweep in non-con (plus another BIG14 & B12).

What a really great job scheduling (I know some of it goes back a while). I absolutely love testing this team by fire rather than fattening up on cupcakes. Not going to be any danceless 20 or 21 win seasons in the Shaka era.