More Conference Reshuffling Rumors

[JWags85]

So assuming this is a #donedeal where does the B12 go from here?  This would bring them to 8, so do they try to expand all the way back up to 12?  Houston immediately pops to mind.  UCF/USF? Tulsa?  Tulane for the New Orleans presence?  I haven't been following BYU closely enough to know if gong independent and the BYU network have been profitable, but maybe there is a deal to be made there?

Houston for sure.  Colorado State makes sense.

Tulsa makes sense geographically but its surprisingly small.  Both private schools in the B12, TCU and Baylor, have 10K+ kids while Tulsa is under 4K.

BYU seems logical.  Maybe Memphis?  Maybe New Mexico?  Maybe see if Sam Houston State makes the jump to FBS given how successful they are at the FCS level?

[Uncle Rico]

Houston for sure.  Colorado State makes sense.

Tulsa makes sense geographically but its surprisingly small.  Both private schools in the B12, TCU and Baylor, have 10K+ kids while Tulsa is under 4K.

BYU seems logical.  Maybe Memphis?  Maybe New Mexico?  Maybe see if Sam Houston State makes the jump to FBS given how successful they are at the FCS level?

The Big XII is dead.  Kansas will be gone.  They can add whoever but they'll be a slightly better AAC.  The Big 14 will almost certainly add 2 schools now in an attempt to match balls with the SEC.  I think people dismissing Kansas in the Big 14 are way off base.  The basketball is worth it.

[Its DJOver]

Just the next natural step on our way to four 16 team super conferences that will eventually break away from the NCAA.  Biggest question left is who can grab the last open spots.  B10 will have one opening, ACC will have three, although this could push ND to fully commit, PAC-12 will have four, would they go for the scraps of the B12, or just take the top of the Mountain West?

[brewcity77]

So assuming this is a #donedeal where does the B12 go from here?  This would bring them to 8, so do they try to expand all the way back up to 12?  Houston immediately pops to mind.  UCF/USF? Tulsa?  Tulane for the New Orleans presence?  I haven't been following BYU closely enough to know if gong independent and the BYU network have been profitable, but maybe there is a deal to be made there?

BYU is the golden goose still out there. They have to be priority 1, 2, & 3 if the Big 12 hopes to survive. I imagine they will probably have to actually go back to 12 as well, with UCF, Houston, Cincy, Colorado State, and a few others all getting consideration.

I could just as easily see it all collapsing if the Big 10 and Pac-12 pounce. If so, I hope the Big East has their eyes on the worst/best football/basketball programs of Kansas.

[Pakuni]

Interesting that no one is talking about Boise State.

[MU82]

Interesting that no one is talking about Boise State.

How 'bout them Broncos?!?!

You're welcome, Pak. We're here to serve.

[JWags85]

Interesting that no one is talking about Boise State.

Id guess probably because its 1000 miles away from the nearest B12 school.  And even BYU is 400 miles closer.

MWC is a good fit for Boise St.  It would make sense for a PAC-12 expansion, but not so much for B12 IMO.

[Billy Hoyle]

Id guess probably because its 1000 miles away from the nearest B12 school.  And even BYU is 400 miles closer.

MWC is a good fit for Boise St.  It would make sense for a PAC-12 expansion, but not so much for B12 IMO.

too many attractive options within the current footprint (or right outside in BYU's case).

Houston, SMU, Colorado State, Cincy all make more sense than Boise or UCF.

[MU Fan in Connecticut]

Just in case anyone is wondering.  From today's New Haven Register.



Could UConn leave the Big East if conference realignment revs up again? Not very likely.
David Borges
July 22, 2021
Updated: July 22, 2021 9:52 p.m

Did you hear the news? Texas and Oklahoma are actively looking to leave the Big 12 and join the SEC, according to a Houston Chronicle report. It wasn't exactly steadfastly denied by officials from either school, so something appears to be up.

Did you hear the other news? After losing its two marquee programs, the Big 12 will raid the ACC, leaving a void in that league that will obviously be filled by UConn.

OK, that's just rampant speculation on social media, message boards, even from some media types.

Bottom line, that's not happening right now. UConn officials scoff at the notion. The school couldn't be happier to be back in the Big East, and one way it's showed its gratitude is by agreeing to pay a whopping $30 million exit fee if it were to leave any time within its first six years in the league.

IMAGES:
University of Connecticut men's basketball coach Dan Hurley, left, University President Susan Herbst, third left, Big East Commissioner Val Ackerman, fourth left, women's basketball coach Geno Auriemma, fifth left, and Director of Athletics David Benedict, pose for photos during the announcement that the University of Connecticut is re-joining the Big East Conference, at New York's Madison Square Garden, Thursday, June 27, 2019. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

"We didn't join the Big East to leave," UConn athletic director David Benedict said back in May, 2020, a little over a month before UConn officially re-joined the league. "They didn't bring us in to leave, and we didn't join to leave."

That fee gradually decreases after six years, but will still be substantial for a while.

Plus, if things were to follow a similar model as UConn's departure from the American Athletic Conference, the school would have to pay an ACC entry fee. The entry fee to join the Big East was $3.5 million.

And don't forget, UConn is still paying the AAC about $1 million a year over the next six years for its own $17 million exit fee, which was largely covered by turning over the school's share of media rights to the AAC.

Oh, and of course, UConn currently has a $43.5 million athletics budget deficit that has caused the school to drop several sports, among other measures.

But wouldn't all those deficits be made up for by the financial windfall of joining the AAC? Well, sure. But not for a long time.

Yes, the ACC shares $32.3 million per member school via its media-rights deal. The Big East only shares about $4 million per school. But typically, when a school joins a new conference, it doesn't become fully-vested for such payments for several years, as Rutgers found out when it joined the Big 10 and Louisville the ACC about seven years ago.

Schools aren't immediately fully-vested in NCAA units and other payments earned by their new conference, either. UConn won't be fully-vested in the Big East for another five years.

Now, obviously, a move to the ACC (or another Power-5 league) could ultimately be a great financial boon to UConn. But that is way, way down the line. Too far to even fathom, at this point. UConn is happy to be back in the Big East, where it "belongs," and certainly doesn't want to give any indication that it is planning a departure. Because it isn't.

And let's face it, maybe the ACC doesn't even want UConn. The football program isn't exactly overly attractive.

Regardless, after nearly a decade of dormancy, conference realignment appears to be on the horizon once again. If Texas and Oklahoma do eventually leave, the dominoes will fall. The AAC could perish, with schools like Houston, UCF, Cincinnati and Memphis prime targets for the Big 12. Or it could expand, picking apart the Big 12's carcass. Plenty of moves could be made by other leagues, as well.

Perhaps, instead of losing UConn, the Big East gains a program from the Big 12, although it's hard to see other top programs going independent with their football programs.

Or maybe this is all a play for Texas and Oklahoma to garner a better TV contract for the Big 12 and, like about six years earlier, nothing happens at all with the conference.

Right now, it's all speculation. But don't speculate that UConn is packing for a Big East departure. That won't be happening anytime soon — if ever.

david.borges@hearstmediact.com

[Dish]

BYU is the golden goose still out there. They have to be priority 1, 2, & 3 if the Big 12 hopes to survive. I imagine they will probably have to actually go back to 12 as well, with UCF, Houston, Cincy, Colorado State, and a few others all getting consideration.

I could just as easily see it all collapsing if the Big 10 and Pac-12 pounce. If so, I hope the Big East has their eyes on the worst/best football/basketball programs of Kansas.

Maybe not the main reason, but there's definitely a reason BYU hasn't been invited to a P5 in the past. I don't think today's climate is any better, but they do draw lots of eyeballs.

[The Sultan]

Really good article detailing why this made sense for ESPN and how they were involved.

https://awfulannouncing.com/espn/biggest-winner-oklahoma-texas-sec-espn.html

[Uncle Rico]

Really good article detailing why this made sense for ESPN and how they were involved.

https://awfulannouncing.com/espn/biggest-winner-oklahoma-texas-sec-espn.html

That TV deal is going to be insane for the SEC

[Dish]

It'll be interesting to see what value Nebraska/Maryland/Rutgers carry for B1G for their upcoming tv rights deal. Those cable boxes in DC/NYC meant a lot more 10 years ago than they will going forward.

Could argue contraction of those 3 schools, and maybe adding Syracuse makes more sense.

[The Sultan]

It'll be interesting to see what value Nebraska/Maryland/Rutgers carry for B1G for their upcoming tv rights deal. Those cable boxes in DC/NYC meant a lot more 10 years ago than they will going forward.

Could argue contraction of those 3 schools, and maybe adding Syracuse makes more sense.

I think if they had it over the Big 10 would have been much more aggressive with Texas and other B12 schools like Missouri. Rutgers and Maryland just aren't fits.

[dgies9156]

My wife was describing her first Gator game to a friend. She said she couldn't remember which team they played, but it was one of those cousin loving states. I told her, this is the SEC, they are all cousin loving states.... (It was Tennessee btw)

Excuse me.....

As an ex-Tennessean, don't get us confused with Arkansas and Mississippi. We like our women, but not our "related" women.

Tennesseans are so-fisticated. We still think Elvis is alive and among us. We make our own "shine" because, well, we can. We think every woman should look like Dolly Parton.

I could go on, but.....

[muwarrior69]

Just the next natural step on our way to four 16 team super conferences that will eventually break away from the NCAA. Biggest question left is who can grab the last open spots.  B10 will have one opening, ACC will have three, although this could push ND to fully commit, PAC-12 will have four, would they go for the scraps of the B12, or just take the top of the Mountain West?

... and how many will watch a P4 basketball championship? What meaning do regular season games have if all the teams qualify for a P4 tournament?  Or will a tournament made up of the other 290 or so D1 teams draw more interest as it represents a wider swath of schools many with just as large an alumni base as the P4 schools.

I think basketball will keep them inside the NCAA.

[The Sultan]

... and how many will watch a P4 basketball championship? What meaning do regular season games have if all the teams qualify for a P4 tournament?  Or will a tournament made up of the other 290 or so D1 teams draw more interest as it represents a wider swath of schools many with just as large an alumni base as the P4 schools.

I think basketball will keep them inside the NCAA.

I think it is pretty obvious that regular season games mean something even when a bunch of teams make the playoffs.  I mean, they entertain you right?

College football has figured this out, and that is why they are expanding the playoff.  An expanded playoff will bring in HUGE ratings, and won't sacrifice regular season ratings because...well...people like watching college football.  That's pretty much why the P6 have conference tournaments.

[Its DJOver]

... and how many will watch a P4 basketball championship? What meaning do regular season games have if all the teams qualify for a P4 tournament?  Or will a tournament made up of the other 290 or so D1 teams draw more interest as it represents a wider swath of schools many with just as large an alumni base as the P4 schools.

I think basketball will keep them inside the NCAA.

Well you would still have seeding to consider, so the regular season would determine that. 

You're also keeping the existing rivalries in place, people will watch a Duke UNC game even if there is nothing at stake. 

Since you're breaking away from the NCAA, you can be much more liberal with the methods of paying players (Jrue Holiday just got a million dollar bonus because the bucks won the championship).  Additional incentives like that will get the best players competing at the best level. 

As for who would watch it, if/when the break away does happen, it will likely be just as viewed as March Madness currently is within one recruiting cycle.

[Uncle Rico]

Well you would still have seeding to consider, so the regular season would determine that. 

You're also keeping the existing rivalries in place, people will watch a Duke UNC game even if there is nothing at stake. 

Since you're breaking away from the NCAA, you can be much more liberal with the methods of paying players (Jrue Holiday just got a million dollar bonus because the bucks won the championship).  Additional incentives like that will get the best players competing at the best level. 

As for who would watch it, if/when the break away does happen, it will likely be just as viewed as March Madness currently is within one recruiting cycle.

Things to consider if the P4/P5 break away:

1. Who is in charge?
2. Who does oversight?
3. Who runs non-revenue sport tournaments?
4. Do you leagues still negotiate their own media rights deals?  If so, if scheduling outside this new entity, how does that get measured for post-season seeding? 

[Hards Alumni]

If the B1G grabs KU, their next call should be to WVU.  Just makes sense geographically, balances the conferences, etc.

[JWags85]

I think if they had it over the Big 10 would have been much more aggressive with Texas and other B12 schools like Missouri. Rutgers and Maryland just aren't fits.

Jim Delaney's focus at that time was almost solely focused on TV markets and getting BTN into as many homes as possible, thus NYC and DC were huge targets.  It had nothing to do with Rutgers and Maryland's fits in the conference which were and have always been awkward.

[Hards Alumni]

Jim Delaney's focus at that time was almost solely focused on TV markets and getting BTN into as many homes as possible, thus NYC and DC were huge targets.  It had nothing to do with Rutgers and Maryland's fits in the conference which were and have always been awkward.

+1

[Billy Hoyle]

Maybe not the main reason, but there's definitely a reason BYU hasn't been invited to a P5 in the past. I don't think today's climate is any better, but they do draw lots of eyeballs.

BYU's biggest strikes is their no games on Sundays policies and, in the case of the Pac12, a history of poaching players on Missions. That can't happen anymore. They have the money and following to draw well. Plus, when you sell a family plan that's 6 tickets on average.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Jim Delaney's focus at that time was almost solely focused on TV markets and getting BTN into as many homes as possible, thus NYC and DC were huge targets.  It had nothing to do with Rutgers and Maryland's fits in the conference which were and have always been awkward.

Yes.  But as dish pointed out,  cable cutting has made that a lot less valuable moving forward. In hindsight,  maybe was the wrong move. Seemed genius at the time

[The Sultan]

Yes.  But as dish pointed out,  cable cutting has made that a lot less valuable moving forward. In hindsight,  maybe was the wrong move. Seemed genius at the time

Yeah I think if they knew then what they did now, those wouldn't have been the choices.