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Author Topic: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney  (Read 10388 times)

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #25 on: January 18, 2021, 06:23:08 AM »
Boise State was a top-10 in football 5 out of 6 years and was shut out of the championship. Three straight years they entered the bowl season undefeated. If the P5 could shut Gonzaga and other teams out of their payday, they'd do it in a heartbeat.

If college basketball were anywhere near the revenue generator that college football is, that might be the case.  But right now I think the P5 don't see much reason to invest in a new association and go through what would undoubtedly be a PR nightmare for the sake of the potential of a few extra $$$.

The NCAA tournament credits are basically a way that the P5 schools earn more $$ than the rest of the schools do anyway.  And they have the NCAA around to do their dirty work for them in the meantime.
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brewcity77

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #26 on: January 18, 2021, 07:36:07 AM »
I'm not saying it's imminent, but I don't think an eventual money grab would be a surprise, especially if they fully break off in football. Not a 0-5 year concern, but maybe a 10-20 year issue.
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Uncle Rico

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #27 on: January 18, 2021, 07:42:54 AM »
Boise State was a top-10 in football 5 out of 6 years and was shut out of the championship. Three straight years they entered the bowl season undefeated. If the P5 could shut Gonzaga and other teams out of their payday, they'd do it in a heartbeat.

There is nothing the P5 conferences hate as much as sharing money with schools like Gonzaga
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muwarrior69

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #28 on: January 18, 2021, 07:54:52 AM »
Even so, there would be nearly 300 D1 basketball teams playing for a National Championship and I doubt the P5 schools would get all the top recruits. Not to mention the NBA just limiting themselves to just P5 players. I would have no interest in watching a P5 basketball tournament as I have no interest in watching college football's exclusive club, but I would watch a tournament where Marquette had a chance to win.

Galway Eagle

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #29 on: January 18, 2021, 08:10:15 AM »
Even so, there would be nearly 300 D1 basketball teams playing for a National Championship and I doubt the P5 schools would get all the top recruits. Not to mention the NBA just limiting themselves to just P5 players. I would have no interest in watching a P5 basketball tournament as I have no interest in watching college football's exclusive club, but I would watch a tournament where Marquette had a chance to win.

While you're right, unfortunately the schools leaving hold by far the largest alumni base plus they hold the largest casual fan base of people who root for them because they're from the state.

I'd root against them but if they left they'd be successful unfortunately.
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geps

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #30 on: January 18, 2021, 08:56:18 AM »
This might have already been discussed but what if your upcoming sweet 16 opponent has a Covid issue? I know it's a bubble tourney but still a possibility.

GooooMarquette

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #31 on: January 18, 2021, 09:13:58 AM »
This might have already been discussed but what if your upcoming sweet 16 opponent has a Covid issue? I know it's a bubble tourney but still a possibility.


If it's a first round game, I suspect they'll replace with one of the 'first four out.' Beyond that, I suspect Covid in the tournament will result in a forfeit.  Too many other teams involved to postpone and wait it out.

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #32 on: January 18, 2021, 09:34:15 AM »
It's not a "bubble tourney" either.  They are calling it "bubble-like."
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dgies9156

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #33 on: January 18, 2021, 10:01:23 AM »

Agreed.

I also seriously doubt the administration will shut down the country. The time to do that would have been several months ago. At this point, we are way too far along for it to make a serious difference.

If they do shut the country down, there will be an open revolt that would make the 1960s look like kindergarten playtime.

MU82

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #34 on: January 18, 2021, 10:09:21 AM »
Boise State was a top-10 in football 5 out of 6 years and was shut out of the championship. Three straight years they entered the bowl season undefeated. If the P5 could shut Gonzaga and other teams out of their payday, they'd do it in a heartbeat.

Well, I hope not.
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MU82

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #35 on: January 18, 2021, 10:10:00 AM »
If they do shut the country down, there will be an open revolt that would make the 1960s look like kindergarten playtime.

Unproveable. Because it's not going to happen.
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The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #36 on: January 18, 2021, 10:22:01 AM »
If they do shut the country down, there will be an open revolt that would make the 1960s look like kindergarten playtime.


Yeah with the vaccine program underway, there is zero chance we are shutting anything down.  I think people see the light at the end of the tunnel even though a lot of people will die in the meantime.
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muwarrior69

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #37 on: January 18, 2021, 11:21:07 AM »
While you're right, unfortunately the schools leaving hold by far the largest alumni base plus they hold the largest casual fan base of people who root for them because they're from the state.

I'd root against them but if they left they'd be successful unfortunately.

That could change. Most schools in the Big West have large student populations and alumni base. The NCAA would still be a truly national tournament where your small town college has a real shot at the championship. The other 300 D1 alumni bases would dwarf the P5 when you add it all up and there are quite a few state schools not in the P5.

Every team in the P5 would have to play to have 63 game tournament. I guess the regular season and conference championships would be played for seeding.
« Last Edit: January 18, 2021, 11:34:14 AM by muwarrior69 »

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #38 on: January 18, 2021, 11:28:13 AM »
That could change. Most schools in the Big West have large student populations and alumni base. The NCAA would still be a truly national tournament where your small town college has a real shot at the championship. The other 300 D1 alumni bases would dwarf the P5 when you add it all up and there are quite a few state schools not in the P5.


No offense but UC-Irvine and Fullerton State aren't driving the television audience no matter how large their alumni bases are.
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muwarrior69

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #39 on: January 18, 2021, 11:38:40 AM »

No offense but UC-Irvine and Fullerton State aren't driving the television audience no matter how large their alumni bases are.

... and here in New Jersey even with a good team people are not glued to their TV to watch Rutgers.

Galway Eagle

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #40 on: January 18, 2021, 11:53:54 AM »
... and here in New Jersey even with a good team people are not glued to their TV to watch Rutgers.

Yeah you're right not every state has a connection to to the flagship school. But if UW leaves the vast majority of the WI market is gone. Same with Michigan between MSU & UM. Nebraska lives and breathes for UNL. Texas wouldn't care about anything else if A&M and UTA left. Indiana you'd lose Purdue and IU bases plus the bandwagon Notre Dame fans all over Chicagoland with no association (ahem Heisenberg). Ohio you'd have some diehard fans remand between Cincy, Xavier and Dayton but that's a big loss without tOSU.

Essentially what I'm saying is your average directional school alumnus usually cares more about the state school than their own unless you have a good mid major like Northern IL football or Wichita st bball that gives them something to root for. And because of that you'd lose the vast vast majority of fandom and be better off making a Catholic only tournament (maybe toss in Protestant schools in that league too)
« Last Edit: January 18, 2021, 11:55:36 AM by Galway Eagle »
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muwarrior69

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #41 on: January 18, 2021, 12:18:27 PM »
Yeah you're right not every state has a connection to to the flagship school. But if UW leaves the vast majority of the WI market is gone. Same with Michigan between MSU & UM. Nebraska lives and breathes for UNL. Texas wouldn't care about anything else if A&M and UTA left. Indiana you'd lose Purdue and IU bases plus the bandwagon Notre Dame fans all over Chicagoland with no association (ahem Heisenberg). Ohio you'd have some diehard fans remand between Cincy, Xavier and Dayton but that's a big loss without tOSU.

Essentially what I'm saying is your average directional school alumnus usually cares more about the state school than their own unless you have a good mid major like Northern IL football or Wichita st bball that gives them something to root for. And because of that you'd lose the vast vast majority of fandom and be better off making a Catholic only tournament (maybe toss in Protestant schools in that league too)

...but what would a P5 tournament look like to generate the same revenue as the NCAA?

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #42 on: January 18, 2021, 12:35:58 PM »
...but what would a P5 tournament look like to generate the same revenue as the NCAA?


It wouldn't have to generate the same revenue to make it more profitable for the member institutions.
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Galway Eagle

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #43 on: January 18, 2021, 01:33:09 PM »
...but what would a P5 tournament look like to generate the same revenue as the NCAA?

Good question. There's 65 schools in the power 5 for basketball. If they just take  the top 32 they'd have a big crowd watching plus you'd pretty much guarantee no teams with crap records that are 100% non competitive get in.

I mean think about the college basketball ratings thread 900,000k for a B1G game. That's without anything actually on the line. 
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wiscwarrior

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #44 on: January 18, 2021, 02:10:26 PM »
I just don't think the P5 will withdraw from the NCAA BB tournament. No need to. Just withdraw from football. No additional administrative loads for non football sports, plus all of the advantages mentioned for holding an inclusive tournament. I  believe the last time I heard read about the possibility of P5 withdraws, it was only for football.

The Sultan of Semantics

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #45 on: January 18, 2021, 02:13:41 PM »
The P5 has basically already withdrawn for football.  They use the NCAA for rules and eligibility, but share none of the TV revenue.  It is actually the best of both worlds from their point of view.

And this is why ultimately they are never going to leave.  The costs to establish the governing apparatus isn't worth the effort of potentially extra basketball money.  As long as the football money flows, they are fine with the current arrangement.
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Not A Serious Person

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #46 on: January 19, 2021, 08:04:38 AM »
Lundari latest brackets now include at 48 and 16 team bracket because as he says

The truth is there is no way to know at this point what Selection Sunday will bring, so all bases must be covered by.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30302581/the-varying-states-ncaa-tournament-bracketology

Incidentally, in the 68 team bracket, MU is among the "first four out." Interestingly, Michigan State and Duke are among the "last four byes." and UNC is among the "last four in."

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Galway Eagle

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #47 on: January 19, 2021, 08:07:38 AM »
Lundari latest brackets now include at 48 and 16 team bracket because as he says

The truth is there is no way to know at this point what Selection Sunday will bring, so all bases must be covered by.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30302581/the-varying-states-ncaa-tournament-bracketology

Incidentally, in the 68 team bracket, MU is among the "first four out." Interestingly, Michigan State and Duke are among the "last four byes." and UNC is among the "last four in."

He's probably getting paid by content he produces and figures that he can do a bunch of bracket options for once
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Dr. Blackheart

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #48 on: January 19, 2021, 08:27:54 AM »
With basketball and the P5, teams are already mega-conferences. If the rest are excluded, who else is there to play?  Do you play conference foes a third and fourth time to make up for out of conference and holiday tournament games? As it is, these drawn out conference schedules are a bit boring to me.

You can shrink the teams in football because of the fewer number of games and the disparity of competition?  Due to the size and money it takes to be competitive in football, that generally makes for a better regular season product. It also leads to a monopoly where the championships are the same concentrated teams that hurt ratings. It won't for basketball where the NCAAT is the profit generator based on ratings.

We'll see though as this shutdown will be a disruptor going forward. A Northwestern playing MSU three times in the regular season, once in the B1G Championship, and then again in March Madness isn't firing me up as a fan.

Galway Eagle

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Re: NCAA Making Contingency Plans For Less Than 68 Teams In Tourney
« Reply #49 on: January 19, 2021, 08:32:11 AM »
With basketball and the P5, teams are already mega-conferences. If the rest are excluded, who else is there to play?  Do you play conference foes a third and fourth time to make up for out of conference and holiday tournament games? As it is, these drawn out conference schedules are a bit boring to me.

You can shrink the teams in football because of the fewer number of games and the disparity of competition?  Due to the size and money it takes to be competitive in football, that generally makes for a better regular season product. It also leads to a monopoly where the championships are the same concentrated teams that hurt ratings. It won't for basketball where the NCAAT is the profit generator based on ratings.

We'll see though as this shutdown will be a disruptor going forward. A Northwestern playing MSU three times in the regular season, once in the B1G Championship, and then again in March Madness isn't firing me up as a fan.

We also aren't fans of MSU or NW (assuming you don't have an affiliation my bad if you do) so we aren't the target audience anyways. You'd likely see teams doing for "conference challenge" series and then a few exhibition games. Realistically I agree that it would be damaging to the product, they need at least 2 maybe 3 more conferences to make it work.  But it is a plausible move and many of those schools have "messed with happy" to chase dollars before
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