The Next Four Games - The Entire Season?

[Not A Serious Person]

After last night's win, MU has a chance to get a streak going (assuming no COVID postponement)

KenPom (% probability MU wins)

Sat Jan 16         St. John's           58%      Away   
Wed Jan 20       Georgetown     78%   Home
Sat Jan 23         DePaul          75%   Home   
Wed Jan 27       Providence         47%   Away    

Looks like the most critical stretch of the season.

What do you expect for the next four games?  Is 4 - 0 unrealistic?

[BM1090]

Loss @ SJU, followed by a 4 game win streak vs. Georgetown, DePaul, PC and Butler.

[Galway Eagle]

Wades about to come and remind us the only "critical game" is the next game.

[RushmoreAcademy]

3-1. Likely Providence away as the loss.

[wadesworld]

Wades about to come and remind us the only "critical game" is the next game.

They're all critical.  Don't recall ever saying any game wasn't important/critical.

[Galway Eagle]

They're all critical.  Don't recall ever saying any game wasn't important/critical.

Say what? That's been your thing here for so many years. Whenever someone tried to say "this game is the most important for RPI (later NET)" you'd come running with a "no the most important game is the next one!"

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wades about to come and remind us the only "critical game" is the next game.

Wades schtick is "the most important game of the season is the next one"

[zcg2013]

Nervous about Saturday. Have not played well at St. John's as of recent and really need to limit TOs.

[Galway Eagle]

Wades schtick is "the most important game of the season is the next one"

Ah my bad.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Loss @ SJU, followed by a 4 game win streak vs. Georgetown, DePaul, PC and Butler.

This is my feeling as well. Providence is better than SJU in my opinion, but they are tailor-made to beat us. Winnable certainly because we are the better team, but their strengths will exploit our weaknesses.

[BM1090]

Nervous about Saturday. Have not played well at St. John's as of recent and really need to limit TOs.

Haven't won @ SJU since the 15-16 season.

But we did beat them in the BET in 18-19 at MSG.

[MU24]

Win as many games as possible. I always found the "must-win" "dont need to win" talk kinda pointless.
Sure its "fun" to talk about it, but its not worth getting too invested.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

I think I saw at the end of last night’s SJU game that they are 6-1 at Carnaseca. I hope we win by a million, but my gut says we lose.

[BM1090]

I think I saw at the end of last night’s SJU game that they are 6-1 at Carnaseca. I hope we win by a million, but my gut says we lose.

This is accurate, but the best team they have beaten is Kenpom #96 Butler. They beat Georgetown at home as well. The other wins are against Rider, Stony Brook, La Salle, and St. Peter's.

[franklinjerry]

Not sure how we are +70% favorites against anyone on the schedule. Each game will be a dogfight. We are running out a 6 man roster and Theo may be more than just nicked-up.

Hoping for greatness but assuming walkover wins against DePaul, Georgetown or Butler is not rational.

[brewcity77]

I'd extend it to the next 5 as we should really beat Butler at home.

Then have a COVID "positive test" after that game, play the next two, have another "positive test" February 26 and suddenly we finish by playing 7 more games, favored in 6.

[Galway Eagle]

I'd extend it to the next 5 as we should really beat Butler at home.

Then have a COVID "positive test" after that game, play the next two, have another "positive test" February 26 and suddenly we finish by playing 7 more games, favored in 6.

That'd be a ridiculous amount of luck. But if wojos up for some biological warfare with other big East programs I say do it

[brewcity77]

That'd be a ridiculous amount of luck. But if wojos up for some biological warfare with other big East programs I say do it

Luck, or just finding a positive student and deputizing them as a team manager at the right time...

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Not sure how we are +70% favorites against anyone on the schedule. Each game will be a dogfight. We are running out a 6 man roster and Theo may be more than just nicked-up.

Hoping for greatness but assuming walkover wins against DePaul, Georgetown or Butler is not rational.

This is the second time that you have said "6-man roster." We have 7 players who have appeared in literally every one of our games and all all 7 are averaging above 15 minutes a game. In addition, we have an 8th player who has played in every game that he wasn't injured for who is averaging 14.5 minutes a game. In every single game this season, we have had at least 7 players play double digit minutes. We don't have a 6-man roster

[MUBBau]

5-0 in the next four games

[SaveOD238]

This is the second time that you have said "6-man roster." We have 7 players who have appeared in literally every one of our games and all all 7 are averaging above 15 minutes a game. In addition, we have an 8th player who has played in every game that he wasn't injured for who is averaging 14.5 minutes a game. In every single game this season, we have had at least 7 players play double digit minutes. We don't have a 6-man roster

I don't think saying we have a 6-man roster is really that outrageous.

DJ, Garcia, Koby, Theo, Jamal, and Justin are really the team at this point.  Greg, Dexter, and Symir get some spot minutes.  Maybe one of those guys get extended run or has a hot game (Greg vs Creighton, Symir vs Georgetown).  But it's really just those top 6 that matter.

[franklinjerry]

Yes I realize we have more than 6 on the roster. How good do you feel when Greg, Sy or Dex makes an appearance? Dexter has played 30 minutes this year.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I don't think saying we have a 6-man roster is really that outrageous.

DJ, Garcia, Koby, Theo, Jamal, and Justin are really the team at this point.  Greg, Dexter, and Symir get some spot minutes.  Maybe one of those guys get extended run or has a hot game (Greg vs Creighton, Symir vs Georgetown).  But it's really just those top 6 that matter.

Greg is at 15 mpg.  Symir is just under that.  Those aren't "spot minutes."  They are rotational players who have played every game in which they are healthy. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Yes I realize we have more than 6 on the roster. How good do you feel when Greg, Sy or Dex makes an appearance? Dexter has played 30 minutes this year.

Greg and Sy are basically giving MU the same minutes and production that most 7th and 8th guys have been giving the last few years.

[brewcity77]

Yes I realize we have more than 6 on the roster. How good do you feel when Greg, Sy or Dex makes an appearance? Dexter has played 30 minutes this year.

Dex isn't part of the 8-man rotation. Greg and Sy are. I feel great when Greg makes an appearance. I'm lukewarm when Sy does. I'm baffled when Dex plays anything other than garbage time minutes. He's basically a walk-on at this point.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Yes I realize we have more than 6 on the roster. How good do you feel when Greg, Sy or Dex makes an appearance? Dexter has played 30 minutes this year.

Plenty good. They are fine for 7th, 8th, and 9th men in the rotation.

[CountryRoads]

MU is off 2/7-2/13: no chance they play Nova in that stretch as Nova has 3 games scheduled.

The other break is 2/21-2/26: nova has a game the 23rd so likely won’t have the game fit in that slot either.

Wonder when that one gets rescheduled. It’d be a lot better for MUs chances at a bid for it not to be rescheduled tbh.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I don't think saying we have a 6-man roster is really that outrageous.

DJ, Garcia, Koby, Theo, Jamal, and Justin are really the team at this point.  Greg, Dexter, and Symir get some spot minutes.  Maybe one of those guys get extended run or has a hot game (Greg vs Creighton, Symir vs Georgetown).  But it's really just those top 6 that matter.

Dexter gets spot minutes. Greg and Sy are averaging 15 a game and have appeared in every game this season (that Sy hasn't been injured for). There hasn't been a single game where we didn't have at least 7 players play at least a quarter of the minutes. Greg specifically has played 10 or more minutes in every game except for one (OKST).

All teams have players at the back of their rotation that aren't as good as the starters or top bench player, that doesn't mean that they don't have an important role.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wonder when that one gets rescheduled. It’d be a lot better for MUs chances at a bid for it not to be rescheduled tbh.

Maybe but not necessarily. Just playing a team like Nova on the road does a lot for MU's computer numbers. If they can keep it close, it really helps the computer numbers. And while the game against Nova this season gives me very little confidence, the previous 7 games with Nova were all either MU wins or decided by 10 or less points.

The committee would never punish Marquette for losing at Nova, even if its a blowout. They may even reward them if it is a close game. On the flip side, if MU somehow pulled an upset, it would go a long way towards locking up an NCAAT appearance.

[Viper]

2-2, L’s at StJ and Prov.. Re: Dex, was that summertime tape a hoax?

[Galway Eagle]

2-2, L’s at StJ and Prov.. Re: Dex, was that summertime tape a hoax?

It was a pickup game and hype video. I'm sure Dex is much better than he's shown and Covid likely hit him hard but it was ridiculous how many people fully bought into the hype of that video.

[panda]

2-2, L’s at StJ and Prov.. Re: Dex, was that summertime tape a hoax?

I think his game looks better when no one plays defense and you have a video editor with final say on what the general public can see.

Or maybe he is just better against high level NBA talent?

[Its DJOver]

Different players have different roles.  I feel fine when we bring in a 47% three point shooter in Greg, because, for the most part, he knows his role.  When he has to play outside his role (I believe he was the only one to have a TO with the press break last night), I get a bit more nervous.

Also, a few common complaints over the years have been our inability to easily break a press, we did that with ease short of one possession last night, and not knowing how to attack a zone, we didn't always hit the looks we were able to create against the zone, but we certainly looked like we knew how to go about attacking it.  Combine that with winning the TO battle, as well as the fast break points battle (something rarely seen under Wojo) and you got yourself a pretty solid team performance.

[franklinjerry]

Sy played 2 minutes last night in a game that started with a big lead, ended tight and in the middle saw the guy he plays behind leave for a bit with cramps. Dex played 4 minutes last night.
How do you think Wojo is feeling about putting Sy in the game these days?

If we'd like to say Greg is a typical 7th man on either a typical MU or BE team, thats fine. He seems like a great guy and great teammate. He can make a 3 and a free throw. He can't hold the ball in his hands, dribble or guard his own shadow.

[tower912]

Sy made his bed when he jacked up a pull up 3 thirty seconds into his run.

[Its DJOver]

Having the 7th man be a "one skill specialist" type player, and your 8th and 9th men be spot minute players is not exactly uncommon.  I'm not really understanding the argument/complaint here? 

[Not A Serious Person]

delete

[MU82]

Maybe but not necessarily. Just playing a team like Nova on the road does a lot for MU's computer numbers. If they can keep it close, it really helps the computer numbers. And while the game against Nova this season gives me very little confidence, the previous 7 games with Nova were all either MU wins or decided by 10 or less points.

The committee would never punish Marquette for losing at Nova, even if its a blowout. They may even reward them if it is a close game. On the flip side, if MU somehow pulled an upset, it would go a long way towards locking up an NCAAT appearance.

Agree 100%. I hope there's a way to play the game exactly because of what you say here.

When we were building our huge lead against UConn, I said, "Damn, we're on a little roll here; I wish we were gonna get to play Nova."

Then, when we blew the game, I said, "I'm kinda glad we don't have to play Nova next. We desperately need a win. But I still want to play that game at some point."

Strange times.

[Class71]

Assuming the percents of winning are correct it is easy to calculate the likelihood of any outcome. The likelihood to win all 4 games just multiple each percent together. The result is the liklihood we win all 4 games. Conversely take the winning liklihood for each game and subtract from 100%. That gives you the liklihood of losing each game. The liklihood of losing all 4 games multiply all 4 losing percents together. For winning 2 or 3 games look at all combinations for winning each group seperately and calculate the likihoods of winning and sum the results for each set of scenarios.

If you change the winnings/losing percents and you can calculate any scenario result given your own input variables.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Assuming the percents of winning are correct it is easy to calculate the likelihood of any outcome. The likelihood to win all 4 games just multiple each percent together. The result is the liklihood we win all 4 games. Conversely take the winning liklihood for each game and subtract from 100%. That gives you the liklihood of losing each game. The liklihood of losing all 4 games multiply all 4 losing percents together. For winning 2 or 3 games look at all combinations for winning each group seperately and calculate the likihoods of winning and sum the results for each set of scenarios.

If you change the winnings/losing percents and you can calculate any scenario result given your own input variables.

Said another way, there is a 84% chance Ners and his merry personas will return to rant repeatedly without rational commentary then?